Aidymac Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Always pesimistic when it comes to Newcastle matey!!!! Cant agree about battering Stoke. First goal was offside, second was a mis hit from Best and and soft pen ( they had one too). Newcastle have the best defensive record in league, cant deny they are playing as a team and look more solid but majority of games we have have had rub of the green. Dont get me wrong I am absolutely loving this season. The team ethic of is the best its been since Robson and every single player is playing above his level, apart from maybe Collo and Cabaye and Tiote ( who are superb). Kudos to Pardew for the above. We shall see GL :ok They are facing a side with star players the weekend, they could well get a hiding but in my opinion they will be hard to beat! Really hope they put up a good performance and if they walk away with a point from City, they can in my opinion be considered a big threat to Liverpool and Spurs this season in this battle going on around 4th place! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pay Day Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Interesting one, I've actually got a WBA win on my shortlist for this week as I think Bolton is a winnable game for them. Bolton were starting to come into some form before the break but as we've seen in the past international breaks can really mess with form lines. Unfortunately EVS isn't quite enough for me to back Albion and you've made a lot of good points in your post which is making me think twice. One thing I would say is that I am definately not a fan of backing Bolton outright here as I think an away win is unlikely but Bolton +0.50 looks better. To weigh it up overall I think we have quite a marginal game here, very tough to call and I am going to stay away. I definitely agree that there won't be many fans for the outright (even for me it is more speculative than concrete reasoning), and I will compensate by (if betting on this) staking double on the handicap line. Totally agree that internationals can wreck any sort of form a team are building up, and can give teams struggling a chance to sort out some of their problems. I just think that if WBA miss those players up front they are really going to struggle to score against a shaky Bolton line. They created next to nothing against their last 2 opponents and needed Villa to be down to 10 the game before to score 2 goals. I always feel their defence gives away chances and Mulumbu, from many baggies fans, is not playing to a high level as he was last season, in front of the back 4. I look at Bolton's options especially in attack and I see goals, and I think counter-attacking down the wings (Eagles and Petrov) can bring them much joy. As I said I will wait for team news but still it looks like a game that is going to be very marginal so staying away might be the best option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 I definitely agree that there won't be many fans for the outright (even for me it is more speculative than concrete reasoning), and I will compensate by (if betting on this) staking double on the handicap line. Totally agree that internationals can wreck any sort of form a team are building up, and can give teams struggling a chance to sort out some of their problems. I just think that if WBA miss those players up front they are really going to struggle to score against a shaky Bolton line. They created next to nothing against their last 2 opponents and needed Villa to be down to 10 the game before to score 2 goals. I always feel their defence gives away chances and Mulumbu, from many baggies fans, is not playing to a high level as he was last season, in front of the back 4. I look at Bolton's options especially in attack and I see goals, and I think counter-attacking down the wings (Eagles and Petrov) can bring them much joy. As I said I will wait for team news but still it looks like a game that is going to be very marginal so staying away might be the best option Yeh I definately agree that if WBA are missing the said players then they are in trouble, also we cannot ignore the recent run of form despite the annoying break. WBA have really failed to impress so far this season but I guess things will turn for them soon unless something catastrophic is happening behind the scenes. Woy Hodgson is a good manager IMO but his honeymoon period is well and truly over at that club and he has his work cutout to try and pick the team up again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 I rarely bet on the Premiership because I usually find that the prices are more or less correct, and there is usually little in the way of value. However I do think that some Firms may have slightly underestimated Arsenal's recent revival. ARSENAL -0.5 @ 1.70 Pinnacle After a disastrous start to the campaign, Arsenal seem to have got some of their old swagger back in recent weeks. Since losing 2-1 to North London rivals Tottenham on 2nd October, the Gunners have gone 7 matches unbeaten in all competitions, winning 6 and drawing the other 0-0 at home to Marseille in the Champions League (when Wenger bizarrely left Van Persie on the bench until the 62nd minute!). Now a place in the Premiership's top 4 looks a distinct possibility. Most of the players who were injured in the early part of the season have returned to the side, confidence seems to have returned, and to my eyes - with the exception of the 2 Manchester Clubs, and posssibly Spurs - the Gunners are probably playing as well as anyone in the League at the moment. Not a good time for opponents Norwich to be meeting them! The Canaries look to me like a team that is just about to nosedive down the Premiership table towards the bottom end. They were very lucky to claim a 3-3 draw at home to struggling Blackburn a couple of weeks back - with a highly dubious injury-time penalty. Norwich were also deservedly beaten at Villa Park last time out, and despite showing spirit, they were second best for long periods. I feel that the Norwich defence will really struggle to cope with Arsenal's pace and movement on the counter attack, and Van Persie could not be in much better form. Arsenal would have been around 4/7 (1.57) for this type of away fixture last season, and my stats have the probabilities for this match at; Home win 17% Draw 21% Away win 62% Therefore odds of 1.7 (58.82%) represent value to me. Some Firms are going 8/13, which is about right, but 4/6 or bigger is worth taking. I might also put some money on the -0.5 & -1.0 line (which is currently around 1.90) as it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Gunners' won this one by a margin of 2 goals or more. There seems to be some opposition to Arsenal at this stage, with a number of firms now going 1.7 on the away win. I am not sure what is causing this, but suspect it may be around how likely Van Persie is to feature. He was left out by Holland for the mid-week game against Germany at the request of Wenger, and returned to Arsenal after the weekend. Comments from Holland manager Van Marwijk are not encouraging as it seems that all parties agree he does need resting: "Holland have agreed to leave Robin van Persie out of their friendly with Germany after holding talks with Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger. The Gunners boss has been keen to keep his captain and star striker in peak condition and has opted to only name him among the substitutes on occasions in recent weeks. Wenger had hoped that Dutch manager Bert van Marwijk would not use the in-form forward against Switzerland on Friday and in Tuesday's clash. But while the international supremo would not bow to that request and selected Van Persie in Friday's 0-0 draw, he agreed to rest the 28-year-old for their second fixture and he is now heading back to Emirates Stadium. Van Persie has suffered from various injury problems in recent seasons and Holland made their decision after fitness checks on the forward showed he would benefit from the break. Van Marwijk said: "Arsene asked me if I could leave Robin out of both games. "I had a good meeting with Wenger and we reached an agreement he would only play on Friday. After that we would send him back. "I won't use Robin against the Germans. Robin is at the limit according to various measurements - for that reason we have decided to give him a rest." Any Arsenal fans got any views/info on whether he is likely to start at the weekend, bearing in mind they have a crunch CL game against Dortmund on Wednesday next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Just a word of caution to those considering the handicap in the favour of Newcastle. Im a toon army fan and have wacthed every match. Stats, as we all know can lie and this is the case when it comes to Newcastle. The only game we have dominated and looked worthy winners was against at home to Blackburn. If you guys want me to go into depth about individual games I will but to sum up quickly. Our defence have been severly lucky to let the amount of goals in we have this season. Krul has been superb but you cant rely on your keeper all season. People are talking about our easy fixture list which I dont buy into btw. Everton, Arsenal, Stoke and Sunderland are never easy. Fact remains, we should have lost against Sunderland and Everton and capitlised on Stoke at the back. Im not saying back city at that price but Newcastle are on the verge of a hiding........This imo could be it Good luck all Talking about Krul and his good saves - It seems every team's goalkeeper that plays against man city in recent seasons always makes big mistakes to hand City the lead... And they really are BIG MISTAKES, goalkeeping blunders. Ones i can think of are Wayne Henessey a few weeks ago, Wigan - Also the same last season when al habsi did a rob green but let the ball roll at about 1kph between his legs and the game ended 0 - 0, Bolton at the start of the season are just some i can remember off the top of my head. Im abit paranoid Krul is going to make a fool of him self Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 I am really considering Newcastle here for the International Break reasons: The international break can do so much to club sides, players may report back injured, out of form or in form, fatigued and so on. Also, if the club is on form coming into the international break that weeks stop and players going away can be crucial to stopping momentum. Man City are going to have players returning from all over the globe late, they may be jet-lagged and tired from playing two international games for their country. E.g. David Silva - Played at Wembley then on Tuesday Night in Costa Rica, a good 6 hour flight away. Sergio Aguero - Has played 2 South America WC Qualifiers in South America - 7 Hours at least. Edin Dzeko - Played 2 gruelling and intense physically and mentally games against Portugal where his countries hopes were pinned on him which could effect him mentally. See my post in the Championship thread. I haven't found much evidence to back up the International Break theory where the big favorites are concerned (getting 90 percent of straight-win bets), with the exception of Real Madrid and Barcelona (3-9 against the spread in the games I highlighted the weekends after breaks). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 See my post in the Championship thread. I haven't found much evidence to back up the International Break theory where the big favorites are concerned (getting 90 percent of straight-win bets)' date=' with the exception of Real Madrid and Barcelona (3-9 against the spread in the games I highlighted the weekends after breaks).[/quote'] I don't think AHughes liked the idea of opposing Man City just because they were the big favourites and it had been the international break. His post had specific and legitimate reasons to oppose them in this specific game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Swansea v Man Utd -1 (AH): 1.95 @ VC (9 Points) Correct Score: Man utd to win 4-0: 21.00 @ Bet365 (1 Point) Firstly, iv'e got to give credit to Swansea for how well they are doing this season. Theyv'e had a cracking start and are playing good football along the way without being kamikaze style like Blackpool last year. They have only conceeded 1 goal at home so far which is an outstanding record for a newly promoted team. That said, they haven't faced any top opposition at home so far and I think they will have their hands full against Utd. It's true that they held Liverpool away to a goaless draw in their last match and newly promoted teams usually see the home game against Utd as a cup final type which is worth bearing in mind. But for all their great defensive work, they did leak 4 goals against both Man City and Chelsea away. They were away but it indicates that they are vulnerable at the back against genuine title contenders. They play a well organised, posession game but they aren't going to have much luck against Utd in this department. After that 6-1 thumping loss against Man City, it's been a bit of a wake up call for Utd. Ferguson went back to basics in concentrating on the defence and they have followed that result up with a 1-0 win at home and then 1-0 win away at Everton which is a tough place to go. They played it cagey in these games but I get the impression that they are a bit of a wounded animal and sooner or later someone will get a hammering. With the international break, some Utd players have had a rest and I think Rooney will be chomping at the bit. He has been out of the England picture and should be raring to go for this one. Swansea should be respected for their achievments so far and though a few newly promoted teams like Burnley, Hull and Blackpool started in similar vein but then began to sink like a ship, I think they can survive this season. But with their style of play, they aren't going to beat Utd at their own game. They will make things difficult but I'm massively confident that Ferguson will come away with the 3 points. With Rooney chomping at the bit and Utd currently a bit of a wounded animal, I think they can win this by a margin to cover the handicap. Chelsea and Man City both put 4 past them so i will have a nibble on the 4-0 win at appealing odds as a long shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puntyboy Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Hi guys, Nice debate going on the City v Toon game. I'm also a Toon supporter and have seen every game so far except the Blackburn game. Newcastle have made me some good money since the start of the league and I'v been debating with myself what to bet on in this match. I agree with both of you in most respects. Yes we've been hard working and have had a little bit of extra class against lesser opposition than city, but we have also rode our luck a little and cannot agree with us being as solid at the back as everyone is making out to be. I think this weekend could go either way, we could get crushed - or frustrate City for a 0-0 or 1-1 draw, Cant see us winning unless City have a player sent off or penalty. So it was either either City -1 EH (with the head) or Newcastle + 1.0 (with the heart). Can't make up my mind though so I'm staying away from result betting. For a bit of interest though I'm going to have a bet on the cards market in this one. I think the clubs have still a little bad blood between them over the Ben Arfa incident and with the speed this game may be played at you can nearly guarantee Tiote and S. Taylor will be booked. If Newcastle start frustrating City I think City could pick up a few cards too. So I'l have a small bit of 45 points or more @ 7/5 with Paddy Power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 I don't think AHughes liked the idea of opposing Man City just because they were the big favourites and it had been the international break. His post had specific and legitimate reasons to oppose them in this specific game. Of course not. Just adding information for those that are curious about whether the international break has an effect on teams in aggregate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Norwich - Arsenal After their away defeat to Tottenham arsenal did really well and remained unbeaten in 7 games, winning 6. They scored 16 goals and conceded 6 (3 against Chelsea). I think that their attack is really strong and since Van Persie did not play last international game he won't be tired and will most likely start from the first minute. Norwich are inconsistent and their only decent result was 1-1 draw against Liverpool at Anfield. However, their defence is not that good and in their last 2 games they have conceded 3 goals from Aston Villa and Blackburn. I am quite confident that Arsenal will win this game and since their attack is much stronger than Aston Villa and Blackburn I can see them winning by more than 1 goal. However, since it is an away fixture I will take some insurance. Arsenal -1 AH @ 2.10 (3 units) Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Man.City - Newcastle Even though Newcastle is yet to play any of so called "big teams" they are unbeaten in the Premier League so far and a team that is 3rd in the league should be priced @ 10.00 even against Man.City. The Citizens will have plenty of players returning from international duty and I can't ignore the fact that some of them will be tired from all the travel and games they have played. Man.City won the last game against QPR but it was obvious that they had some problems in defence and in their recent home games they struggled a bit against sides like Everton and Wolves. I really don't see Newcastle losing this by more than 1 goal and I even can see them getting something from this game. Newcastle +1 AH @ 2.75 (2 units) Bet365 Newcastle @ 10.00 (1 unit) Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 A lot written already about the City - Newcastle games so I won't repeat for this bet. However I will make the following points: - Newcastle have the best defensive record in the league, shipping just 8 goals in 11 games so far. - City's home record is a very impressive P5 W5 F16 A2, however when you dig a bit deeper, they have been a 2nd half team. Their record at HT reads P5 W2 D3 F2 A0. They have been leading 1-0 vs Villa & Wigan at HT, but held 0-0 by Swansea, Everton & Wolves. - Times of the first goals in their home games have been 57, 13, 68, 28, 52 I think a factor in City's slow starts to games at home is Mancini's approach, where he does not set his team out to go gung-ho, more to wear teams down gradually. I don;t have the quote to hand, but he made comments to this effect after the Wolves game if I recall correctly. Add in the possible international hangover for key City players, the looming CL game in Italy, and the solidity of Newcastle so far, then I think the first half will be slow to get going. The spread firms have the time of the first go set at 31-34, while most bookies line is around 25-27 mins. So the fact that Paddy Power goes 21 mins is tempting enough to play. Obviously it only takes a second to score a goal, but all factors point to the breakthrough taking a while to arrive. It may also be worth considering taking the 2nd half to be the highest scoring at 2.1, but I will play the first goal minutes: 2pts Time of First Goal after 21st min @1.91 - Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomo89 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 just to reiterate the above post man city newcastle - highest scoring half = 2nd @ evens (pp) this has been the case in 10 out of 11 of city's games this season and 5 for 5 at home. thats the same as city's winning record (5/5 home, 10/11 overall) and they are priced 1/3 to win tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Arsenal to beat Norwich @ 1.746 (Pinnacle:7pts) Fancy us to get the job done tomorrow in the early kick-off away to Norwich. Usually I would be hesitant getting involved after an international break, but really, it wasnt too harsh on us at all. Arteta obviously had no matches, RVP came back to London last Friday amid concerns about fatigue but he'll be involved in some capacity tomorrow no doubt, a few other players had some involvement last week(a few players like Ramsey, Arshavin, Gervinho only played once) but I don't think it was a taxing break at all, actually plenty of players had a decent rest this week. Seen pictures from our training session and I'd expect the team to line-up as it was before the break. We do have a little issue at right back with Jenkinson now out so expect either Koscielny or Djourou to slot in there but the rest of the team should be: Szczesny, Koscielny/Djourou, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Santos, Song, Arteta, Ramsey, Theo, Van Persie, Gervinho. We are gradually picking up some form. Norwich have impressed me at times, Lambert is a talented coach but as the weeks go on I'm beginning to see weaker defensive displays from them, no more than in the last 2 league games which were a 3-2 defeat at Villa and a spirited 3-3 draw at home to Blackburn. I think we'll be able to breach this Norwich backline more than once tbh. They should cause us some problems too, I expect a tough game away from home but I'm beginning to feel more secure about us defensively with Vermaelen back and the midfield clicking. Away win for me. Newcastle +1.5 AH vs Man City @ 2.120 (Pinnacle:5pts) Alot has been said about Newcastle already and I do believe they will eventually finish in the 7-10th positions, however at worst I can see a narrow loss tomorrow and I do think they are in good shape going to Eastlands. The fighting spirit is all there, players working hard for eachother defensively, and they do have a goal in them. City had one of the tougher international breaks, Aguero had a niggle while away with Argentina although he is supposed to be fit, Dzeko has a couple of really tough play-off games vs Portugal, Balotelli played a few times for Italy, Silva was away with Spain playing at Wembley and then in Costa Rica on Tuesday, Nasri is also injured. They go to Napoli in midweek for a crucial Champions League game aswell so you never know with Mancini, could be a couple of changes. All in all, I feel this is the right time to take Newcastle on a plus, a 2 goal loss or more results in a loss but I think Newcastle can make this competitive and frustrate the home side, even if they lose the match. GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Norwich V Arsenal Again a lot written about this game already. Just a couple of points: -Norwich have conceded 3 to both Villa & Blackburn, and prior to that while holding Liverpool to 1 at Anfield, gave up a whopping 29 goal attempts. -Arsenal have 11 goals in their last 3 PL games, and are perfectly set up to punish lax defending on the break. Over 2.5 Arsenal team goals is a best price 3.0, but I have gone with the 3.5 about them winning the race to 3 goals with William Hill. I normally cover these with a push on 2 goals by backing the team to win the race to 2 goals as well, but given Arsenal's defensive frailties, I'll swerve it this time. 1.5pts Arsenal Race to 3 goals @3.5 - William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EU45Antifoul Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 :welcomeTo me , my 1st post I can see value in the draw at Swansea v United 4.4 united low scoring and very defensive in thier last two games Swansea low Scoring and unbeaten at home plus the international break 0-0 = 15.5 1-1 = 9.6 2-2 = 22 BF also worth looking at Hernandez to score in 1-0 united I dont go with the wounded Tiger I think they are fragile. i am a bigginer tho :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 With Mike Dean reffing the Swansea- Man Utd game live on ESPN the spreads on penalty goal minutes will be available & a buy could be worth a look...will post up spread when SPIN put it up...:ok 15-18, so a cheeky buy at 18 & hopefully Mr Dean will point to the spot & the spot kickers do the business :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Also Mike Jones is in charge of the Stoke- QPR game & he averages 6 yellows per game....alas its not a tele match so the spread is not updated in running... 38-42 so a small buy for me...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suarez1907 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 now,everton have to win.they played well since last two matches but they are unlucky everton to win :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He who dares .. wins Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Chelsea v Liverpool under 2.5 goals 10/11 william hill The last 11 league games between these two teams has produced under 2.5 goals An average of 1.5 goals per game. That means we have to go way back to 2005 to find a game with over 2.5 goals in a game involving Chelsea and Liverpool! You wouldn't believe we have to travel even further back to 2003 to find a league game played at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea faced Liverpool, that produced 3 or more goals! Looking at the above stats 10/11 seems fair enough :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Norwich vs Arsenal I believe in Wenger as an excellent manager and he looks to have put bad times behind Arsenal. They look very sharp and competitive and Van persie is scoring a goal every game. Walcott also looked excellent playing for England and should cause Norwich's 2nd class defenders some problems. Arteta has nearly filled the gap left by Cesc and Andre Santos even showed he can score. I'd expect an team like arsenal that put 5 past chelsea to score at least 2 or 3 goals at carrow road. Its not easy going to carrow road and Lambert is an excellent manager also who will know how to compete against an arsenal side. Norwich will score as Arsenal still look weak defensively especially to the play style of Norwich with their typical old fashioned attack plus grant holt. Thus: Over 2.5 8/13 10/10 Over 3.5 8/5 5/10 Arsenal 8/11 8/10 BF Everton vs Wolves One player that really impressed me was Drenthe. He looks to have added another dimension to everton's solid play style. Watching Rodwell as well as Baines and Jagielka(doubt) they really did a good job for England, especially rodwell on his debut. This should give them plenty of confidence. As always goodsion park will be full of noise and i expect Everton to make another quick start to the game like they last did at home against Man Utd. Wolves looks to be getting back on track after climbing to 13th after beating wigan at home. However wigan was poor in putting away the chances they created and against a team like everton, you cant expect them to always miss from a few yards out against your goalkeeper. Not much value in this one (I gave everton a 61% chance of winning) Everton 4/6 10/10 LB Over 3.5 2/10 City vs Newcastle The major point that people have been talking about is the effect of the international break on manchester city's players. I watched spain draw to costa rica in midweek and the players did look really tired and jet-lagged. Though silva scored an goal he didnt look on top of his form and might struggle on saturday. Newcastle on the other hand have been quite lucky to be 3rd in the premier league. They havnt really faced tough fixtures yet and this is their first. Some say that their run will definately end here, but the odds on man city in their current form is too poor to back. Newcastle will really relish this chance to get something out of the etihad fixture and should rise to the occasion. Though i got a bad feeling that Krul is going to make a goalkeeping blunder, I think the value is in newcastle. I'd also expect man city to have a slow start to the first half which will probably end 0 - 0 or 1 - 0, though i havnt decided on the bet yet: Newcastle+1.5 11/10 10/10 365 Under 2.5 6/4 Stoke vs QPR When i first saw this fixture I thought stoke should win here after their break. Stoke this season havnt played has solidly as last season at home. their away record have been poor whilst their home havnt been fantastic as records may suggest. This is probably due to their europa league "hangovers". I though this is probably the best chance to get back to winning ways and collect 3 points off newly promoted QPR. Qpr themselves havent been doing badly either, though losing to tottenham and man city, their performances have been pretty good, but city and spurs were just terrific, spurs in the first and city in the second. I think Qpr will find it extremely hard to get a win at the britannia full of working stoke fans making alot of noise, but a stoke win is slightly too thin considering qpr's form and their recent thumping of 5 - 0. This makes the odds on a draw unmissable for me. I only expect a draw about 29% of the time, but there is still value: I was also looking at the goals market, but still undecided on which side of the fence I am on, so its pretty tight and probably lack value. Draw 13/5 5/10 Sunderland vs Fulham Sunderland have been up and down this season and their best player so far by far have been Seb Larsson. However he is not avaliable for this match and Bentdner will probably be the main threat to goal. He scored in midweek for Denmark and should be good on confidence. Though he has recently said that he does not want to stay at sunderland due to wanting to play champions league football, he will want to get a good goalscoring record here to give himself a better CV. Fulham have also been up and down. their loss against spurs was harsh and should also have won against everton at home, but both matches ended in a 1 - 3 loss. They beat wigan away from home but their away form still isnt very convicing. Wigan probably deserved to win the game. Sunderland 7/5 8/10 Looks to have plenty of value Sunderland -0.25 21/10 365 10/10 Under 2.5 3/4 4/10 Wbrom vs Bolton After bolton's win of stoke, they should be full of confidence and really secure their place in the premier league and rise of the table again like last season. West brom have been really dull this season for me. Odemwingies new hair is not making a difference and Brunt looks out of form also. Long is a major doubt and looks to miss againt and I simply dont see why west brom are priced at around Evens. so: Bolton +0.5 9/10 10/10 365 Under 2.5 21/20 Wigan vs Rovers Wigan have also been up and down this season. After a promising start they now are on this terrible run of bad results which leaves them on the bottom of the premier league table. I initially though blackburn should have a decent chacne of winning this game after seeing their away performance (which they should enjoy more due to their angry fans at home) have been quite good especially at carrow road which they deserved to get 2 points. But then the bookies gave blackburn a 19/10 chance of winning, which is ridiculous for a side that still have their own problems with the manager and the owners and also with tension all over the club. Whelan recently said that he wont sack martinez, usually this is a hint of the manager nearing to getting the sack but I think the relationship between martinez and Whelan is different. However this will probably put abit more pressure on Martinez. I also believe in Martinez as an improving young manager and Wigan will see this as a perfect chance to get things back on track. A result is cruical, a loss is devastating.I expect an open game. Both sides have conceaded and scored goals and I see this going overs. Wigan 8/5 10/10 Over 3.5 12/5 5/10 Over 2.5 10/11 10/10 WH Swansea vs Utd Lastly we finish in Wales. Swansea is unbeaten at home but surely Man utd is too far for their unbeaten run? Swansea have played some good football but they still lack extra quality in their squad. Vorm looks to be a steal and Graham is really fitting into the squad. In front of the welsh fans i expect Swansea to put in a stellar performance. However Manchester united especially after their 6 - 1 defeat look really tough at the back with Vidic leading the line. DeGea is an excellent keeper and id imagine most of swansea's efforts will be from outside the box, which must be something special to beat Degea. Up front Man utd should have too much quality and firing power for swansea to deal with. I dont see man utd thrashing swansea 5 - 0 here, but a 1 - 0 or 2 - 0 win is highly likely. I dont usually back odds this short but there is value imo on: Utd win 8/15 10/10 Under 2.5 21/20 8/10 Good luck all :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Man City vs Newcastle, under 2.5 @ 2.58 (Betfair) I've been looking to oppose the hosts here as 1.25-1.33 is just too low against a decent looking Newcastle side. I would say 1.4 would be a fair or true price (not value). Basically, I don't think Man City will find it easy here, but I think the best way to use this information is to bet on unders rather than Newcastle on the handicap. Man City will have been disrupted by the international break, with a number of their players being in action, some in far flung locations around the world (Aguero in S.America, Silva in Costa Rica with Spain). We have frequently seen teams in this position struggle after the international break. Newcastle players were far less involved so they will be fresher. I think their fatigue be more evident in Man City's attack than their defence. Why? (1) Newcastle will be very happy with a point and shouldn't put the Man City defence under too much pressure. (2) The Newcastle defensive record is the best in the league so far, so a tired Man City will find it hard to break them down. Consider also that Man City have Kompany returning from suspension (and the QPR game showed how crucial he is) and that Man City's defence is strong, especially at home, with a large number of clean sheets in recent times. Also, Best is a doubt for Newcastle which is a blow to their attack IMO. Man City have been scoring loads of goals which explains the market reaction here, and the short price of overs. However, I think tomorrow's game has a good chance of being a tight victory for the home side, against a dogged and organised Newcastle side. There is also a decent chance (higher than the odds suggest IMO) of a draw, which will most likely be 0-0 or 1-1. Although I accept overs is the most likely outcome, 2.5 on unders looks value to me; I would have priced it at 2.1-2.2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefanos56 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Chelsea v Liverpool under 2.5 goals 10/11 william hill The last 11 league games between these two teams has produced under 2.5 goals An average of 1.5 goals per game. That means we have to go way back to 2005 to find a game with over 2.5 goals in a game involving Chelsea and Liverpool! You wouldn't believe we have to travel even further back to 2003 to find a league game played at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea faced Liverpool, that produced 3 or more goals! Looking at the above stats 10/11 seems fair enough :hope Thing is, bulk of those years were Rafa v Mourinho or Rafa v other. Rafa really knew how to defend against the big-guns (apart from Arsenal). The games under Woy and Kenny were played when Chelsea were in their bad runs. I'd be wary of putting too much emphasis on these past stats personally. Just my opinion. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Norwich v Arsenal. Over 3 goals. 1.96 @ Pinnacle (8/10) Norwich have been playing really good at home apart from the match against West Brom. Arsenal have finally got it going and are favorites on merit in this match but it might not be straight forward for them. International break can be a messy for clubs like Arsenal, so it will be interesting to see what we'll get from them. As for this match, I think there will be goals despite the early kick-off situation. Arsenal are vulnerable away from home whilst Norwich can score more at home. All in all should not be a boring match, 2-1 either way is the least I expect from this one. Wigan v Blackburn. Over 4 goals. 5.25 @ Bet365 (5/10) Expect some fireworks in this match. Both teams are really awful. Wigan have dropped nine in a row. This is as good as a chances for them to finally get a win but who knows will it happen. I think it could really be anything in this one. It was 4-3 last time, so why not something like 3-3 this time? Everton v Wolves. Both to score. 1.83 @ Bet365 (7/10) Both teams in poor form and although Everton should on paper get a win at home, I would not be shocked if they didn't. They have not managed to beat Wolves at home in last two matches, both ending 1-1. Considering how poor these two have been lately, I wouldn't bet on either keeping a clean sheet. Everton can be good against Top sides but give away sloppy goals against lesser teams. I think both will get at least one today. West Brom v Bolton. Both to score. 1.66 @ Bet365 (7/10) Score draw in prospect in this one. 1-1 would my an obvious pick if I'd go for a correct score. It has been 1-1 in their last two matches @ West Brom. Neither can defend good enough, so there will be enough chances to score for both sides. Stoke -1 vs QPR. 2.52 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Playing in Europe this season has not helped Stoke one bit. They have done decent job in Europa Leauge but have been poor in Premier League. International break could not have come at better time for Tony Pulis. Having a rested side will be huge, especially at home. QPR are in a mess with the whole Taarabt situation, don't think they can deal with Stoke away from home at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukkus Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Chelsea v Liverpool under 2.5 goals 10/11 william hill The last 11 league games between these two teams has produced under 2.5 goals An average of 1.5 goals per game. That means we have to go way back to 2005 to find a game with over 2.5 goals in a game involving Chelsea and Liverpool! You wouldn't believe we have to travel even further back to 2003 to find a league game played at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea faced Liverpool, that produced 3 or more goals! Looking at the above stats 10/11 seems fair enough :hope what has that got to do with chelsea v liverpool on sunday 20th NOV? Chelsea have never been managed by a more attacking manager in the last 10 years, if ever?? in their two biggest n this season games v utd & arsenal it has been 6 goals per game and the game at OT could have been easily 5-5... should this not be taken into context rather than just stats?? Of course this could be another under 2.5 but surely we have to look at what is happening this season as the the most prevalent guide to form here? Personally i am going huge on over 1.5 goals in this & bolton game.. yes i know technically i'm still acknowledgint the under nature of this game but i fully expect three goals and am very confident of two... based on recent displays of both teams but particularly chelsea.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigelixtiti Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 arsenal - norwich both teams to score @ ~1.6 combined with man city - newcastle - city win @ ~1.3 should give good value multi @ ~2+ anyone else here a fan of multis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigelixtiti Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 with regards to rukkus' post i agree with you. AVB hasnt been able to keep a clean sheet all season, but on the other hand, liverpool (suarez) has been having scoring troubles lately. This game has "both teams to score (@~1.7) written all over it imo, however if i were to go in this direction id go Over 1.5 goals (@~1.25, the safe bet) or Over 2.5 Goals (@ ~1.83) the latter of which i think is very good value. thoughts? i definitely see AT LEAST 3 goals in this match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duhlev Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Arsenal already played 3 saturday 'noon matches: Lost @home to Liverpool 0-2 Lost away to Blackburn 3-4 won away at Stamford Bridge 5-3 so bet OVER 3,5 goals look decent to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOTTI3 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 Man City> Newcastle=over (1.57) bet365 stake 6 / 10 Man City position 1° points 31 Newcastle position 3° points 25 Preview: Man City: in doubt: Aguero (striker 10 / 9); absent: Hargreaves (Midfielder 1 / 0); out (for technical choice): Tevez (striker 3 / 0); part: Kompany (defender 10 / 1). Newcastle: absent: Tiote (midfielder 9 / 0); injured: Marveaux (striker 6 / 0). Man City has a score in-house w5-d0-l0 goals scored 16 goals against 2 Newcastle and has a score out of the house w3-d2-l0 goals scored 7 goals against 3. Man City is the league leaders and so far have proved the strongest. Has the strongest attack of the league with 39 goals in 11 games with an average of goals per game 3:54. The Man with the Newcastle City are the only unbeaten teams in the league. Newcastle now has to prove his true strength of a difficult area to conquer. So in the end I think this is a game with many goals from actions. Last season Manchester City won both games against Newcastle (2-1 home and 3-1 away from home). Record at home to Manchester City this season: 5-0-0. Edin Dzeko is the leading scorer for Man City with its 10 goals. Demba Ba has made ​​8 to Newcastle. :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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