Tennis - 7-13 November

[Atko]

:eyes Clownfils at his best. He turned into an errors machine and had no chance whatsoever. One wonders how on earth he made it without qualies here :-) My lame grandmother would have beaten him today.

With all due respect to your lame grandmother, I don't think she would have. I always feel slow indoor hardcourts don't suit her game. She prefers grass. And let's face it, she's not in great form. In fact, I've blacklisted her. All the hallmarks of a fixer.

[nbalover]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November atko psycho and others , i think isner has huge chance against Lopez but he is underdog according to bookies , do you agree with me ? how did lopez play against Monfils , he looked bad vs. Llodra although he has won , i think isner will win in straight sets.

[TheBigWheelerDealer]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

atko psycho and others ' date=' i think isner has huge chance against Lopez but he is underdog according to bookies , do you agree with me ? how did lopez play against Monfils , he looked bad vs. Llodra although he has won , i think isner will win in straight sets.[/quote'] Isner's success has run its course. His movement is poor and Lopez will run circles around him. WillHill are offering Lopez at 5/6 to win and I'll gladly take that for moderate stakes. Has anyone noticed how every single match today was over within 2 sets? I'm sure it all means something...I just have to figure out what!

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Albano Olivetti - Ricardas Berankis OVER 20.5 GAMES 10/11 BET 364 Strength 5/10 Watched Olivetti the other day against Lajovic after WinningTipster flagged up his serve, and he wasn't exaggerating. His serve is massive, and the conditions in Geneva are incredibly fast. His first serve appeared almost unreturnable at times. He'll have to keep that going against Berankis as the Latvian is probably best know for his return, however I'm backing him to do so, and enjoy a competitive scrap that will cover the line offered. Berankis should hold his serve pretty easily as well as Olivetti's all round game is a tad raw still. Andy Murray -4.5 to beat Andy Roddick @ 1/1 BET 365 Strength (6/10) This should be comfortable for Murray. The court will probably be too slow for Roddick to attack net and shorten the points so he'll most likely try and use his slice and spar with Murray. He can do a reasonable job of it against average players but he looks a bit stupid trying against someone with the class of Murray. By the end this could get pretty one-sided. :hope

[cristianoronaldo]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Sport Tennis Event Murray - Roddick Selection Under 21.5 Strength 10/10 Date 10/11/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.95 Reasoning My prediction for this game is under 21.5. I watched both players in this tournament and Murray looked minimum one class stronger than today opponent, clean shots from the baseline, consistent game style and unbreakable serve. Roddick serve is bad, I see huge troubles against one of the best returner on the world. Murray is big favourite in this match. Easy win :hope

[danytz186]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Sport	Tennis
Event	David Ferrer - Aleksandr Dolgopolov
Selection	2
Strength	10/10
Date	10/11/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.77
Reasoning	In the round of 16 of the ATP Paris Masters (France, indoors/hard) the spaniard David Ferrer will take on ukrainian Aleksandr Dolgopolov. This will be their 5th official meeting, with Ferrer leading 3-1 after the first four along with some interesting facts like: 3 times out of 4 the match ended after a decider, these meetings are spread through just this year and previous one, Dolgopolov won the last encounter which was on clay. Dolgopolov, 17th in world is an up and down player, at least in this part of his career, although with a very decent ranking he is lacking consistancy and that`s why there is no surprise for me that he allready lost 28 times this season. Altough his favorite surface is clay, winning a title this year at Umag, another final at Costa Do Sauipe and other 2 semifinals at Acapulco and Nice he can play some tennis on other surfaces as well, the only problem just like I pointed out is its consistancy which without you can`t do anything anywhere. Before this one he played 10 other hardcourt tournaments (4 indoors, 6 outdoors) but only in 5 of them he managed to get over the first round, at least. Again, following a certain form pattern after losing in straight sets against two players around the top10, now he beat a redoubtable player like Kohlschreiber in the first round here at Paris, 6-3, 7-6. On the other side, Ferrer, ranked 5th in the world, aiming to beat his best one which he got in 2008 (4), very close for that matter, with an extraordinary year, even though just with 2 titles in his pocket, he played another 4 finals, but most importantly he was very consistant in his results in grand slam tournaments. In the first round he beat one of the croud favorites, Mahut, a big server with a close 6-4, 6-4. Even though with only 16 losses on the year Ferrer proved at times that he can be inconsistent as well, the recent example would be the loss against the argentinian Monaco in three sets last time at Valencia, where even though he won a set by 6-1, he lost the match. I think the odds are a bit exagerated in this case, even though its no. 5 against no. 17 and I will count this on the form factor that I mentioned earlier, even though everybody knows that Dolgopolov can quickly become a top10 player if he doesn`t rush in some important points (ussualy that comes with time and always a bit of luck). My bet will be on the ukrainian.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

atko psycho and others ' date=' i think isner has huge chance against Lopez but he is underdog according to bookies , do you agree with me ? how did lopez play against Monfils , he looked bad vs. Llodra although he has won , i think isner will win in straight sets.[/quote'] I thought Isner looked tired yesterday. Three matches in three days, all pretty competitive, aren't going to help him. Same issue for Lopez but he's playing well and has more off the deck than the big American. Isner's a total cockroach though, he never goes away, so I can see him keeping it pretty competitive. Wouldn't like to go either way to be honest.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

With all due respect to your lame grandmother, I don't think she would have. I always feel slow indoor hardcourts don't suit her game. She prefers grass. And let's face it, she's not in great form. In fact, I've blacklisted her. All the hallmarks of a fixer.

:-) OK, perhaps she would not actually have beaten Monfils, but +1.5 sets hcp would have had fair chance, LOL. And my Simon to bt Monaco @1.781 Pinnacle LOSS just completes the humiliation. 0-2 for yesterday. I considered impossible for Gillou to appear in that horrible form in front of the home crowd in a tournament he has special feelings for. I was wrong, but I am pretty sure Gillou feels much worse than me by now, especially because ending the season by a bagel is something he could not afford.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November I had a fcuking mare yesterday. 0/3 is not cool. The bookie took me over his lap and spanked the living daylights out of me. Fuelled by revenge, I've come out fighting, with some serious bets ... - Novak Djokovic -4 games AH (v Viktor Troicki in Paris) @ 1.92 with Pinnacle (10/10) This seems an insane offer on Djokovic. I know there's been talk of him being injured but I genuinely believe that he'd pull out if that was the case. He's said he wants more matches ahead of Paris, so I can see him wanting to win this. Troicki won yesterday but he beat an out-of-form Stakhovsky. No big deal for me. Courts are too slow for him, in my book. He does his best work on quicker surfaces. He's also been on the end of a couple of beltings this year from Djokovic. The world No.1 may not be at that level currently, but Troicki's not pulling up trees either - he's certainly not at the level of earlier in the year. He won't get many cheap points off his serve on these courts as well. I expected a -5.5 line, so I'm wading in with a chunky stake. - Janko Tipsarevic (v Tomas Berdych in Paris) @ 1.80 with 188bet (8/10) Got to go with Tipsy in this one. Berdych just evidently doesn't like playing the Serb. A 4-0 main Tour H2H tells the story. Not sure why the Czech has so many problems against him but in the two matches this year, he's not got near him. I reckon Tipsy still has belief that he can get to London. Whether he'll do it is another matter but considering the good form he's in, he should be able to hold his game together. Berdych got tight last year when gunning for the O2 and I thought he looked nervy against Verdasco a few days ago too. Regardless of this result, you'd expect him to make London, so I'm content to back the form-book. Not much value left in the price though. - Andy Murray -4 games AH (v Andy Roddick in Paris) @ 1.86 with Pinnacle (7/10) Time up for Roddick in this one. Murray absolutely skelped him at Queen's in the summer and what was so galling for the American was that his serve was totally nullified against the Scot. Murray's too good a returner on these slow courts to not get a read on the American's serve, and he has too much variation and ability off the deck to dispose of him. Really quite surprised to see that this line is at -4 - I was expecting -4.5 - so very keen to take this one. I keep saying it, but Roddick isn't the force of old. I think he'll struggle again today. - Roger Federer -4.5 games (v Richard Gasquet in Paris) @ 1.93 with Pinnacle (7/10) Went against Federer yesterday and was punished for it. He was very, very clinical against Mannarino. Looks in good shape and was hitting the ball and serving well. He lost to Gasquet earlier in the year on clay but think the Frenchman will find it hard to make inroads in this match. He beat Anderson but big Kev looked knacked, and even then, Gasquet threatened to throw it all away. He's only just returned since Metz with an eblow injury and probably isn't totally up to speed. You need that against Federer when he's playing this well. Take the -4.5 all the way down - I expected -5. Just don't think Gasquet's fit enough to live with Roger at the moment.

[nbalover]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Any thoughts for Seppi handicap ?

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Any thoughts for Seppi handicap ?

When I was doing my pricing, I came out with Tsonga -4 @ 1.95 and Seppi +4 @ 1.90. Can't find a serious edge at all in the current market. Seppi's playing some good stuff, but past experience suggests he can implode quite spectacularly at times. He's caused JWT problems in the past, and against Garcia-Lopez, a similar baseliner to Seppi, he couldn't hit through him very easily because these courts are slow. Seppi's a better version of GGL. Tsonga will probably win but there's no way I'd entertain the handicap, even though there's a slice of value on the price, if not the line. Seppi could be a wee shout although I have more confidence in jayalexander banging his burd (see general chat forum for more details) than I do in the Italian, even if he is playing well.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Tipsarevic wtf?!? Seriously?

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November If Nole can't come through ether after all those breakpoints now that Tispy is out, I am done betting for a while. This is crazy. Lost a fortune yesterday and about to get absolutely buried today. what a shame...

[nbalover]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Why Nole is so terrible ?

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Nice show for the masses from Troicki and Nole :clap I can remember something similar was going on between these two last year at US Open. They went full distance with Djoker being a huge fav. Watching that match I always had the impression that they just act. Throwing balls out on purpose, or volleying exactly to the spot where the opponent was standing, etc. etc. Same thing today. However, this was (that is "is", 46 63 41 for Nole now) perfect match for online betting.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Oooft, the big bet pulls through, quite serenly in the end :p

[nbalover]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Djokovic turned to an unforced errors machine , if he mets with Federer or Murray , what will happen you think ? :)

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Djokovic turned to an unforced errors machine ' date=' if he mets with Federer or Murray , what will happen you think ? :)[/quote'] I pray for he gets to the final and meets either .. the odds will be lovely and I will eat it up with HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE stakes, no way will an inform Murray lose to Novak like this and Federer almost had Novak on a slower court when Novak was at peak his peak level. I suspect Murray or Federer would be evens with Novak at 8/11 .. but that would swap after everyone would be backing Murray and Federer.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Djokovic turned to an unforced errors machine ' date=' if he mets with Federer or Murray , what will happen you think ? :)[/quote'] A lot of tennis to be played before that happens, so hard to judge until then.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Federer vs Gasquet - Federer to win (2-0) @ 1/2 with Victor Chandler 4.5 Points Going big here. Against Anderson Gasquet was a joke (by Gasquet's standards) relatively good in patches but for the MOST PART ... below his average best ... scrappy games all over the place and way too many loopy easy to handle forehands which Federer will in Federer usual fashion, eat up all day by running around and blowing away an inside out devasting forehand winner. (Or unreturnable) Gasquet's defensive skills are okay but he tends to sit back very deep behind the baseline when he meets players that can dominate from the back of the court, rather than take the ball on himself. He ofcourse has his moments with his backhand but they are too patchy and not going to concern a Federer in reasonable form. Federer will play a lot of drop shots in this match and Gasquet is no Andy Murray .. cannot see anything but a hammering and I'm avoiding the handicap because Federer can tend to just be a little wasteful with BP opportunities .. a break in each set should see this home quite easily. Gasquet's not played in 6 weeks LOL and the French love Federer more than they do their own LOL ... BIG STAKES.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Some interesting quotes from Djokovic ... "At this level, everybody is equal," said Djokovic. "I've known Viktor for a long time and there are no secrets. "I went on court not too warmed up or focused and I felt a little pain in my shoulder. I'm not really worried because I know it's not an injury, just strong inflammation. "Unfortunately I need couple of days to recover and I don't have that this week in Paris. I will have to find a way to recover and I'm sure I'll be fit for London."

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Federer vs Gasquet - Federer to win (2-0) @ 1/2 with Victor Chandler 4.5 Points Going big here. Against Anderson Gasquet was a joke (by Gasquet's standards) relatively good in patches but for the MOST PART ... below his average best ... scrappy games all over the place and way too many loopy easy to handle forehands which Federer will in Federer usual fashion, eat up all day by running around and blowing away an inside out devasting forehand winner. (Or unreturnable) Gasquet's defensive skills are okay but he tends to sit back very deep behind the baseline when he meets players that can dominate from the back of the court, rather than take the ball on himself. He ofcourse has his moments with his backhand but they are too patchy and not going to concern a Federer in reasonable form. Federer will play a lot of drop shots in this match and Gasquet is no Andy Murray .. cannot see anything but a hammering and I'm avoiding the handicap because Federer can tend to just be a little wasteful with BP opportunities .. a break in each set should see this home quite easily. Gasquet's not played in 6 weeks LOL and the French love Federer more than they do their own LOL ... BIG STAKES.

Good post Ronaq, but I ask you this: where do you find the value in odds of 1/2? I don't disagree with the bet at all but what I find flummoxing is the price. What would you have expected it to be?

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Good post Ronaq' date=' but I ask you this: where do you find the [i']value in odds of 1/2? I don't disagree with the bet at all but what I find flummoxing is the price. What would you have expected it to be?

I understand what you are saying, lets just say I have lost my trust in the "better players" doing the business as we draw into the end of the season. All the big player's have been struggling and the moment you back the underdog, due to "fatigue" for the talented guy .. the underdog lets you down. IE .. Seppi right now for example .. everyone's been jumping on him for a + handicap and he's virtually lost this set by 3 games now. Basically, I'm tired of finding value and after having watched Federer against Stan and co (in addition with Gasquet against Anderson) I find it would make life a lot easier financially if I went big on sets here and waited for a good time to bet next. I'm being very selective ... you could say ... safe ... and to be honest with the amount of stupid shit that's happened in the last month of top level tennis I am putting trust in an old timer. Federer rarely lets down on indoor hard ... even during the most awful time in his career of 2008. Gasquet was also shocking against Anderson who was looking very fatigued.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Also, its not a case of, I'm not going for bets because the favourites are losing, that's not the case, when applying logic and going with the better form, better talent, home crowd .. this, that and the other .. something always pops up ... Dolgopolov vs Kolschreiber this week ... how awful was Kolly? and was that the Dolgopolov that lost to Chardy and Sela? No. Tipsy vs Berdych .. Tipsy leads the head to head .. Tipsy needs to win to make WTF and Berdych was virtually there .. LOGIC would suggest Tipsy .. what happens? Choke. So, you see, even when there is value, at this time in the season, its just not working. Tipsy has evidently tired himself out playing two 250's and then a 500 ... all one week after the next. Really stupid.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

Albano Olivetti - Ricardas Berankis OVER 20.5 GAMES 10/11 BET 364 Strength 5/10 Andy Murray -4.5 to beat Andy Roddick @ 1/1 BET 365 Strength (6/10)

win win

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Regarding Gas - Fed: Should not an under 19.5 games bet be the better choice? It's at 2.10 at Bet365 right now. I have trouble seeing Gas break Federer and expect him to at least win the second set clearly with at least 2 breaks. Thoughts?

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November

I understand what you are saying, lets just say I have lost my trust in the "better players" doing the business as we draw into the end of the season. All the big player's have been struggling and the moment you back the underdog, due to "fatigue" for the talented guy .. the underdog lets you down. IE .. Seppi right now for example .. everyone's been jumping on him for a + handicap and he's virtually lost this set by 3 games now. Basically, I'm tired of finding value and after having watched Federer against Stan and co (in addition with Gasquet against Anderson) I find it would make life a lot easier financially if I went big on sets here and waited for a good time to bet next. I'm being very selective ... you could say ... safe ... and to be honest with the amount of stupid shit that's happened in the last month of top level tennis I am putting trust in and old timer. Federer rarely lets down on indoor hard ... even during the most awful time in his career of 2008. Gasquet was also shocking against Anderson who was looking very fatigued.

Fair play. Not sure who has been jumping on Seppi - I put a 'warning' up against taking him - but you're right, sometimes the plusses just don't work. Never tire of finding value. No matter how good a punter you are, you'll get them wrong at times, and that's when a short price can belt you on the jacksie. Federer 2-0 actually could be value to some - it's not a market I price - but I do strongly advise having an idea of the price you want before you surf the market. And for what it's worth, I reckon he'll win in straights. I'm on the handicap but I reckon both will win. Gasquet looked rusty against Anderson, who was tired more than anything else and likes it quicker.

[Stardu5t]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Event Beck A. - Authom M. Selection Beck A. Strength 10/10 Date 10/11/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 1.50 Reasoning In Loughborough challenger round 16 Andreas Beck will meet Authom Maxime.My choice is on Beck because his performance recently is pretty much better than Authoms he has 19/11 on indoors and he pulled out good victories over good players.He looks good on the court hungry for victories and tournaments i concider his game mutch better than Authom.Good movement good staly i think he has that for another victory.

[Stardu5t]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Event Van Der Merwe I. - Baker B. Selection Van Der Merwe I. Strength 10/10 Date 10/11/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 1.60 Reasoning Knoxville challenger round 16 (indoors) Izak Van Der Merwe (115) against Baker Brian (666).Well renetly Izak prooved major quality and performance,in last 10 matcheshe has only 3 defeats and into this match his coming boosted by 6 victories in a row.He has 19/12 on hard courts and 6/2 on indoors wileon the other side Baker did not played a single match on hard.Izak is here seeking for its second indoors trophy after Charlottesville challenger.He looks good on the court good serve and brilliant movement.For me he is a huge favourite in this match with more experience and more stayl.Izak Van Der Merwe to win this

[Stardu5t]

Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Event Gasquet R. - Federer R. Selection -3.5 Federer R. Strength 10/10 Date 10/11/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 1.50 Reasoning Paris - Masters round 16 Roger meets Richard Gasquet.Well last year in Paris Roger defeated Gasquet in two straight sets 6:4 6:4 and i think this time its gonna be something like that.So far they played 10 matches and Roger leads by 8-2.Also i think that Rogers performance is in progress he looks good on the court fast movements very balanced game and what is important his serve is doing good job wich is on the other side bad thing for Gasquet because he is struggling alot.I think that with his game he canot harm and be dangerous to Roger.Roger to cover this handy