England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5

[Shipsupstreets]

	Saturday 5 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Bath City v Grimsby Town (15:00 GMT)	2	12/5	4/3	105.85 %
	Darlington v AFC Telford United (15:00 GMT)	19/20	12/5	3	105.62 %
	Forest Green Rovers v Alfreton Town (15:00 GMT)	8/11	13/5	4	105.58 %
	Gateshead v Braintree Town (15:00 GMT)	11/10	12/5	14/5	103.35 %
	Kettering Town v Southport (15:00 GMT)	2	12/5	7/5	104.41 %
	Kidderminster Harriers v Tamworth (15:00 GMT)	11/10	12/5	14/5	103.35 %
	Lincoln City v Barrow (15:00 GMT)	13/8	12/5	9/5	103.22 %
	Luton Town v Fleetwood Town (15:00 GMT)	5/4	23/10	5/2	103.32 %
	Mansfield Town v Cambridge United (15:00 GMT)	5/4	12/5	12/5	102.84 %
	Newport County v Ebbsfleet United (15:00 GMT)	19/20	5/2	3	104.33 %
	Stockport County v Hayes & Yeading (15:00 GMT)	19/20	12/5	3	106.23 %
	York City v Wrexham (15:00 GMT)	13/10	12/5	5/2	101.46 %

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5 A possibly excessive five picks for me this week, all from the point of view of value in the light of recent performances. As they say on Strictly, "in no particular order..." Firstly, although they owe me nothing after winning at Lincoln, I will have a small punt on Alfreton to win at FGR. Again it is not because Alfreton are any great shakes (and, as Addpea pointed out, they have umm "card issues" and lost another player midweek) but FGR are a bit hit and miss at the moment (kicked out of the cup by Arlesey) and have a pretty poor home record. Alfreton will be feeling pretty good at the moment and, at Coral's 4/1, I will risk a small bet... if I graded it would be no more than a 2/10 Secondly I will again oppose the team beaten by Alfreton. Lincoln are shocking at the moment and their fans turn on the team at the slightest opportunity. The club needs a clearout of players but that won't happen any time soon and there is no confidence about the place. Again, their opponents Barrow are no world beaters but, in their last 3 league games have beaten Hayes and Darlington away and Kidderminster at home, teams with a similar current profile of confidence to Lincoln. Barrow for me. Plety of 6/4 about. Next, Kidderminster are in disarray and were hammered tonight after being lucky to survive at home. They are missing Mike williams in defence and their keeper is guaranteed almost to cost them a goal. Tamworth, their opponents, have recently drawn at Gateshead and Southport, two tough teams on their own patch. They are not the team Kidderminster would want to face now and 14/5 on the away team with Stan James is big. Next, and something to piss Kev off, Fleetwood at 5/2 with bet365 to win at Luton is a bit of an insult to the visitors. They have won seven of their nine away from home and, having seen Luton at their place, the away team do not deserve to be so big. Value for definite and a bet for me. Finally, another insulting quote, this time on my team, Wrexham, at 5/2 with the same firm to win at York. To be fair, they gubbed us in the league at our place but we were not great in the first half. In the recent cup match both sides made changes and we ground out a win. We have the best away record in the league and, although York have an excellent home record and lie second in the 8 match form table, we are top. It may well be that both teams will cancel each other out so, at 11/8 DNB also with SJ, that may be the way to go. GL

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5 As our current shits of owners are denying it is up to them to pay the wages of non playing staff at the club the takeover by the WST is on rocky ground again. Wrexham no longer a bet for me. God I hate Moss and Roberts!!

[tadley]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5 York to beat Wrexham 11/10 most firms I'm happy to take odds against for York. When on song they look a class above this league. They will be smarting at the FA cup exit against wrexham and keen for revenge. The 3-0 wins over Wrexham and Luton show what they are capable of and with all due respect to Wrexham if York play to their potential i can only see a home win.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5 Barton may have gone for five although its only four now, but I have gone for six bets in the BSP this week and they are all away teams as well. Darlington v AFC Telford I’m keen to oppose Darlington on Saturday as they look in a right mess at the moment. It seemed as if Mark Cooper had managed to save his job with three wins in four games but it appears that was just papering over the cracks as they then lost to Barrow and Braintree and not surprisingly Cooper found himself out of a job. They looked to have a really easy FA Cup draw as Hinckley are a poor Blue Square South side but were held to a draw at home before losing 3-0 in the replay. The players seem to have given up and they look pretty poor up front as they lack a striker who can score. In the league they have only scored 18 (only three teams have managed fewer) and I think it’s going to take a new manger coming in full time before things turn around. They host Telford who have only won twice since August and those came against Bath and Alfreton, the bottom two in the league. That is a slight concern but performances haven’t been too bad and they put on a decent show when beating Gainsborough 5-0 in the FA Cup at the weekend. That win should boost confidence ahead of a game against a vulnerable looking side. Take William Hill’s 3/1 about an away win. Kettering v Southport I have written plenty about the away side of late and they eased passed Stockport in the FA Cup last Saturday. With the good form continuing I see no need to abandon them yet and although their opponents have improved since Mark Stimson sorted the team out, I would say the fixture list has been reasonably kind and this is the toughest game they have faced for a while. Unlike last season when they struggled away from home, Southport’s away form is actually one of the best in the league and I am happy to take the 13/10 which is generally available. Kidderminster v Tamworth The home side where out-played by Blue Square North Corby over both games in the FA Cup this week. Corby should have put the game to bed in the first tie but even though Kidderminster took an early lead in the replay on Wednesday, Corby dominated for the rest of the game and duly won 4-1. Steve Burr mentioned afterwards that the squad wasn’t as strong as he thought it was at the start of the season and it certainly seems that way as performances haven’t been great. Tamworth on the other hand are playing well and are now unbeaten in their last five. I wrote last week how I regretted opposing them in the last set of league fixtures when they played against Southport in a game which was pretty even and ended up a 1-1 draw. New manager Marcus Law has put a solid side together and it’s easy to see them finishing above Saturday’s opponents come the end of the season. Betfred and Coral offer 9/4 about the in-form away team which looks pretty juicy to me. Lincoln v Barrow Here we have another former league team in a mess. I’m a bit surprised by the fact they made David Holdsworth their new manger but having said that they don’t have a lot of money to offer a new man or for him to be able to improve the squad. The club seem to be talking about just trying to avoid relegation which speaks volumes for the state they are in. They host a Barrow side who are quietly having a pretty good season as they are only four points off the play-offs, which, given they struggled with injuries earlier in the campaign, is a decent achievement. Striker Adam Boyes is on fire right now and scored all four Barrow goals in the FA Cup last Saturday. They have won their last three league games and I’d be surprised if they couldn’t make it a fourth against Lincoln. VC are best price at 15/8. Mansfield v Cambridge United I am going to oppose Mansfield at home again this week. They may have managed to draw with Fleetwood in the FA Cup last week but they were soundly beaten in the replay, although they were missing players because of a bug going through the team. So with Mansfield looking vulnerable at home I am happy to back a Cambridge side who are in decent nick at the moment and currently sit in fifth place. Interestingly both sides’ only defeat in their last six league matches came against Southport, but as I said last week, Mansfield were so lucky to beat Alfreton that you can almost count that as a loss as well. I think the bookies should have these two much closer in the betting and given there is every chance the Mansfield team could still be feeling the effects of illness, the 12/5 (Coral) on offer looks worth taking. Stockport v Hayes & Yeading Yet another ex-league side who are really struggling in the Blue Square Premier and although I’m taking a bit of a chance in backing Hayes, I do think Stockport are worth taking on. I pointed out last week how poor Stockport’s form is right now and when it comes to league form both teams have picked up four points in their last six games, whilst only two points separate them in the table. The thing is the betting doesn’t represent this and bookies have priced this up on the fact Stockport are a former league club. Getting Lloyd Owusu on loan looks a good move as well and although they have only won once away from home all season I’m taking a chance at the 3/1 on offer with bet365 and VC.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5

York to beat Wrexham 11/10 most firms I'm happy to take odds against for York. When on song they look a class above this league. They will be smarting at the FA cup exit against wrexham and keen for revenge. The 3-0 wins over Wrexham and Luton show what they are capable of and with all due respect to Wrexham if York play to their potential i can only see a home win.

Interesting viewpoint. I am not sure that any team at home, at a shades of odds against, is a value bet against the team with the best away record bar non in the league. In my tip for Wrexham I picked it on value for a team 7-1-1 away from home and which, in the last five away, have only conceded two goals. I accept York have a decent home record and I never let the fact I support Wrexham cloud my view when it comes to laying out cash, but on my book I have York at 6/4 or 13/8 and I cannot see 11/10 as value. Normally I would wish you good luck in your bet but, as York are playing Wrexham, feck ya!! :p

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5 Im with you Barton. Regardless what happens in the match I cant say York are any value at 11/10.

[tadley]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5

I will again oppose the team beaten by Alfreton. Lincoln are shocking at the moment and their fans turn on the team at the slightest opportunity. The club needs a clearout of players but that won't happen any time soon and there is no confidence about the place. Again, their opponents Barrow are no world beaters but, in their last 3 league games have beaten Hayes and Darlington away and Kidderminster at home, teams with a similar current profile of confidence to Lincoln. Barrow for me. Plety of 6/4 about. GL

I concur on the barrow tip. As you say they are no world beaters but they have in fact scored in every single match this year. For that reason and lincoln's lack of goals I see skybet's 11/8 on Barrow draw no bet as a safe bet.