2011/12 Jumps Season

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Below is a list of horses who would be interesting in the near future under the right conditions, either well handicapped or promising novices. The Starboard Bow (L.Russell) 2m4f+ Gd/Sft Knockalongi (O.Sherwood) 2m4f+ Gd, Big Field Flinty Bay (N.Richards) Nov Chase Handicap Kentford Grey Lady (E.Lavelle) Nov Hdle, Good Ground Zaplamation (J.Quinn) Nov Hdle, Class 4/5 Faith Keeper (F.O'Brien) 2m6f/3m 0-100 H'cap Attaglance (M.Jefferson) 2m4+ Gd/GSft 0-135 Handicap Bubbly Bruce (F.O'Brien) 2m4f Nov Hdle Sft :ok

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season

Below is a list of horses who would be interesting in the near future under the right conditions, either well handicapped or promising novices. The Starboard Bow (L.Russell) 2m4f+ Gd/Sft Knockalongi (O.Sherwood) 2m4f+ Gd, Big Field Flinty Bay (N.Richards) Nov Chase Handicap Kentford Grey Lady (E.Lavelle) Nov Hdle, Good Ground Zaplamation (J.Quinn) Nov Hdle, Class 4/5 Faith Keeper (F.O'Brien) 2m6f/3m 0-100 H'cap Attaglance (M.Jefferson) 2m4+ Gd/GSft 0-135 Handicap Bubbly Bruce (F.O'Brien) 2m4f Nov Hdle Sft :ok

Heard a wee bit about the Oliver Sherwood one & Malc Jefferson :ok one or two are out soon.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1240 Fontwell: Natanni 2pts 3/1 PP Interesting novice hurdle over 2m4f, the ground has been descibed as sticky by the clerk so this will take some getting, I liked the race in which Natanni ran in at Bangor (2m1f), Distime won it and the selection was fourth, that trip was too short for this ex-pointer who has ran over 3 miles and this step up to 20f will help and the fact that he stays well should see him improve here. Fav Porgy ran well at Wetherby on his hurdles debut but found nothing after travelling well, not sure he will get home today in this ground. The danger may be the bumper winner from the Sherwood yard, he could be anything and has ran in PTP's over 3 miles.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1240 Fontwell: Natanni 2nd Another second!, the pace of the race was too slow for a stayer and was besten for tow by the debutant from the Sherwood yard. ________________________________ 1230 Newbury: Kentford Grey Lady 2pts 3/1 Betfred On my list of horses to note, she was fancied on debut at Worcester but that trip was too short and met trouble in running only to run on late, next time at Exeter the trainer had a treble yet warned that the selection would find the ground too soft and she was ridden at the back and made late headway to finish third. Here we have better ground and the right trip and expect a good run.

[Boulder5111]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season An easy, gambled on winner, nicely done BH :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Nice winner Kentford Grey Lady BH! :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1230 Newbury: Kentford Grey Lady WON A winner at last, travelled well and was left an easy task once the well backed Tempest River dropped out going to two out, he was a dissapointment. Interesting that the trainer stressed KGL wanted good ground last time yet Ass trainer and partner Barry Fenton said she wanted soft ground? Dont think they were trying last time to be honest and building up the horses confidence and used the ground as an excuse. Anyway she won well enough and will be aimed back here for the Mares final. Bank 134.42 _______________________ 225 Musselburgh: Vosges 2pts 100/30 VCBet A useful hurdler last season and won here at the track, a wierd decision to send him straight into handicap chases over a trip much further than he had done before, the handicapper gave him a mark of 126 for that run and ran well until running out of gas two out, could have been fitness issue as well. Anyway he has been dropped to 118 here, they must be pals with those above, anyway back to two miles in perfect conditions he could go well here in a small field of not very good chasers. I'll take the price with VCBet as its stand out at the moment.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 225 Musselburgh: Vosges 2nd Oh dear, Vosges ran well enough but they let the winner build up a clear lead and they never really looked liked pegging him back, this track is difficult to come from behind and they must have thought the leader would stop up the homw straight. I think Vosges can be followed as he jumps really well and is on a handy mark at present, he wants decent ground though. Bank 132.42 ________________________________ 135 Towcester: Knockalongi 1pt EW 4/1 Bet365 Very well regarded and a disappointment at Southwell when only second to Mish Mir, he never settled that day and in an effort to get cover he ignored the clear leader and was never able to pick him up, expect a better run here on a track that should bring out his stamina. A couple of lively dangers which will hopefully provide a better pace to the race. Another horse on my list to follow and will back him EW at the prices as I do fear the bottom horse from the Williams yard.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Round up later, just want to get this one; 345 Leicester: Astrolibra 1pt EW 22/1 VCBet Cant believe the price of this one, expected around 10/1 at most? Mark Tompkins doesnt have many jumpers at the moment and Astrolibra ran ok in some novice races last season. Ran twice in October and was 4th at Cheltenham in a Class 3 followed by a fair 5th at Wetherby last time behind Raya Star who ran so well at Newbury yesterday. This is a drop in grade and will like the decent ground. Peter Carberry keeps the ride and should know him now and expect a good run.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 135 Towcester: Knockalongi 2nd 345 Leicester: Astrolibra Lost Knockalongi beat the more fancied rival and fav but couldnt answer to the King horse Lovcen who looks fairly useful. I aim to keep Knockalongi on the list of ones to follow but reckon he needs 3 miles already and looks a througher stayer. Astrolibra ran no race really yesterday, it was worth a shot in that grade and maybe needs a sharper track as the horse looks a flat speedy type. Bank 130.22 ____________________ 220 Ffos Las : Misstree Dancer 1pt EW 5/1 Bet365 Misstree Dancer had dropped 7lbs since this time last year to mark of 121, she won off 120 at Newbury and looked to be an impoving sort at the time. Has ran creditably since and had a pipe opener at Wetherby in Fistral Beach's race where she again ran well to a point. This is a drop in class and gets the soft ground she loves on a real galloping track which will bring out her stamina. The trainer places his horses very well and I think he's found a good opportunity here.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 220 Ffos Las : Misstree Dancer 4th No excuses that I could see. __________________________ 155 Southwell: Harry Le Fise Lake 1pt EW 9/2 Hills/Lads Toto Skyllachy was given a very quiet ride last time and made no real effort to win the contest and should be more prominent here but just as promising was the Hobbs horse Harry Le Fise Lake at Kempton, he was leading and going ok when coming down in Darlans race and this is a weaker race. If he's got over that he could trouble the fav who is making his debut over hurdles. The stable are going well and expect a big run. Due to the fact we have two debutants heading the market i'll go EW and play safe in case on of them are useful.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Updated List with results since spotted; The Starboard Bow (L.Russell) 2m4f+ Gd/Sft Knockalongi (O.Sherwood) 3m Gd/Sft, Big Field (2nd 4/1) Flinty Bay (N.Richards) Nov Chase Handicap Kentford Grey Lady (E.Lavelle) Nov Hdle, Good/Soft Ground (Won 3/1) Zaplamation (J.Quinn) Nov Hdle, Class 4/5 Faith Keeper (F.O'Brien) 2m6f/3m 0-100 H'cap Attaglance (M.Jefferson) 2m4+ Gd/GSft 0-135 Handicap Bubbly Bruce (F.O'Brien) 2m4f Nov Hdle Sft Sparky May (K.Burke) 3m Mares races Wymott (D.McCain) 3m+ Gd/Sft

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 155 Southwell: Harry Le Fise Lake EW Lost Clear second when a monumental blunder at the last was costly. Just about sums up the month. Bank: 126.22 _________________________________ 3.00 Catt: Flinty Bay 2pts 6/5 PP One from the list running today and back to Novice Chases for Flinty Bay, he looks well handicapped but trainer Nicky Richards has brought him to Catterick where the fences are easier and try to give him a confidence boost, he wont have it all his own way with opposition like Our Mick and Basford Bob but have to follow him here. 2.30 Catt: Dgigi 2pts 11/8 Bet365 Really impressed with this one last time at Musselburgh and looked the type to be able to carry a penalty, she is a bit fizzy in the early part of her races but came through last time and had plenty in hand at the line, this doesnt look much harder and jockey James Reavely was very bullish about her after the race.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 3.00 Catt: Flinty Bay 3rd 2.30 Catt: Dgigi 2nd Terrible end to a terrible month, Dgigi was beaten a nose by a 66/1 rag who the trainer hadnt had a winner since May!! She ran about all over the place and was disappointing to be honest, still thought she had won but there you go. Flinty Bay jumped carefully out the back and maybe his falls have dented his confidence more than I thought, didnt look like winning at any stage and ran on at one pace in third. Still think he's better suited to handicaps and maybe this was a mistake and should have waited for him to get this clear round out of the way? Bank 122.22 Anyway been working hard on some new software and input all my ratings ready for the start of the new month, I'll flag up the clear top rated at each meeting just to paper trail it and see how it goes to a point stake, probably be some short priced ones but we will see. They will be seperate from my main selections. Better luck in December:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 12.50 MR: Royal Opera 2pts Evens SJ Looks a two horse race here with Philarmonic Hall from the Fahey yard being the danger, he carries a penalty for winning a weak race at Hexham and this will be tougher. Royal Opera ran well at Aintree on debut and then was third at Bangor to one of McCains juveniles, that form wasnt helped yesterday but there were reasons for that. I think he will be too strong in reciept of the weight today. Top Rated Leicester: 310 Zama Zama Wincanton: 140 Duke Of Lucca Market Rasen: 1250 Royal Opera

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season

12.50 MR: Royal Opera 2pts Evens SJ Looks a two horse race here with Philarmonic Hall from the Fahey yard being the danger, he carries a penalty for winning a weak race at Hexham and this will be tougher. Royal Opera ran well at Aintree on debut and then was third at Bangor to one of McCains juveniles, that form wasnt helped yesterday but there were reasons for that. I think he will be too strong in reciept of the weight today. Top Rated Leicester: 310 Zama Zama Wincanton: 140 Duke Of Lucca Market Rasen: 1250 Royal Opera

Treble - What more do they want ?

[Aidymac]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 12.50 MR: Royal Opera WON Royal Opera won well, led all the way and quickened off the home turn, Philarmonic Hall was disappointing although Hexham form can be misleading and his last run wasnt as good as it might have looked at the time. Bank 124.22 Top Rated Leicester: 310 Zama Zama WON (1/5) Wincanton: 140 Duke Of Lucca WON (5/2) Market Rasen: 1250 Royal Opera WON (1/1) +3.70 _______________________________

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Top Rated; Exeter: 12.30 Perveril Pandora (4/1) Sandown: 3.05 Princely Hero (3/1) 12.50 Sandown: Traitor 2pts 5/6 VCBet Was going to put Swincombe Flame up but the price has put me off now but should win before going on to better things. Traitor should win the opener at Sandown as long as the unraced horse from the Baker yard isnt a star in the making. He won at Ludlow with plenty in hand and then ran well at Cheltenham behind Hinterland, that is good form for a race like this and should be 4/6 at least.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Yesterday; Top Rated; Exeter: 12.30 Perveril Pandora Lost Sandown: 3.05 Princely Hero Lost +1.70 12.50 Sandown: Traitor Lost This was an awful race I got sucked in to, no pace and you have to start to worry about the strength of the juveniles on this showing, its all about stamina and settling to get the trip. Bank 122.22 _____________________________________________ 12.00 Aintree: Cinders And Ashes 2pts 5/4 VCBet Cinders And Ashes went into a few notebooks when finishing second at Ascot last time, he made a terrible blunder half way round and still managed to come through with every chance. McCain thinks an awful lot of him and comes up against old rival Keys from the Henderson camp. Now the selection was runner up to a horse from the same stable so they do have an angle on him but he was pulled out of the Cheltenham race last week to avoid meeting Prospect Wells and they ran All The Aces instead. That makes me think this one may need a run over hurdles and Cinders And Ashes can take him on this occasion. Top Rated; Sandown: 1.55 Al Ferof (4/7) Aintree: 12.00 Cinders And Ashes (5/4) Chepstow: 1.30 Curatin Razor (10/11) Wetherby: 2.20 Dance For Julie (7/2)

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season No Bets today; Top Rated; 1230 Kelso: Our Joe Mac (8/11) 1240 Warwick: Captain Loius (7/2) Round Up later on today:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 12.00 Aintree: Cinders And Ashes WON Won nicely despite the ground conditions, always had Keys covered and as thought that one needed the run and maybe quite useful himself. The winner looks ready to go on to better things the trainer has the Supreme as his target. I think this is a serious tool and the 33/1 at Boylesports is worth a bet in my opinion. 1pt EW Cinders And Ashes 33/1 (supreme novices) Bank 124.72 Top Rated; Sandown: 1.55 Al Ferof (4/7) WON Aintree: 12.00 Cinders And Ashes (5/4) WON Chepstow: 1.30 Curatin Razor (10/11) Lost Wetherby: 2.20 Dance For Julie (7/2) Lost 1230 Kelso: Our Joe Mac (8/11) Lost 1240 Warwick: Captain Loius (7/2) Lost Total (0.48)pts :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season A couple have ran off the list without winning but not in the races I pinpointed, Flinty Bay was disappointing in a novice chase, he will be better in a handicap. Zaplamation went the other way by running in a handicap at Wetherby, I think he still needs to learn the game and will be ripe for a novice hurdle up the north somewhere. I'll add some more to the list from this weeks racing when I get time to do it properly. Updated List with results since spotted; The Starboard Bow (L.Russell) 2m4f+ Gd/Sft Knockalongi (O.Sherwood) 3m Gd/Sft, Big Field (2nd 4/1) Flinty Bay (N.Richards) Nov Chase Handicap (3rd in non handicap) Kentford Grey Lady (E.Lavelle) Nov Hdle, Good/Soft Ground (Won 3/1) Zaplamation (J.Quinn) Nov Hdle, Class 4/5 (3rd in Handicap) Faith Keeper (F.O'Brien) 2m6f/3m 0-100 H'cap Attaglance (M.Jefferson) 2m4+ Gd/GSft 0-135 Handicap Bubbly Bruce (F.O'Brien) 2m4f Nov Hdle Sft Sparky May (K.Burke) 3m Mares races Wymott (D.McCain) 3m+ Gd/Sft

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1240 Plumpton: Tindaro 2pts 5/2 Ladbrokes A useful debut when second at Wetherby finishing in front of one or two decent types, he then ran against Cinders And Ashes and Broadbackbob at Ascot and was still in with a chance turning for home, thats solid form and should make his presence felt in this grade. Top Rated; Musselburgh: 1220 Soprano (10/11) Plumpton: 1240 Tindaro (5/2)

[cpo]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Hey BH, great work on the thread btw! I was just wondering how you create your own ratings? Do you use a spreadsheet? If so, what sort of things do you take into account? I only ask because I want to start making my own ratings and was just wondering what the best way to go about it is. I am guessing it is very time consuming?

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1240 Plumpton: Tindaro 3rd Made two very costly errors down the back straight when the pace quickened and could never recover the ground, ran on to take third and should win a small race soon enough, maybe over further. Bank 122.72 Top Rated; Musselburgh: 1220 Soprano 2nd Plumpton: 1240 Tindaro 3rd (2.48) ______________________________ No bet today, Secret Edge is the stand out selection but at 1/2 i'll leave it alone. Top Rated: Sedgefield: 1.50 Red Skipper 12/1 Lads Fontwell: 12.40 Secret Edge 8/15 WH

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season

Hey BH' date=' great work on the thread btw! I was just wondering how you create your own ratings? Do you use a spreadsheet? If so, what sort of things do you take into account? I only ask because I want to start making my own ratings and was just wondering what the best way to go about it is. I am guessing it is very time consuming?[/quote'] Thanks mate, the hardest part is deciding on a base rating, many just copy the OR and tweak them a bit here and there on what they see themselves in races, its a solid enough method and may highlight some well in horses in your opinion. I have a base rating for each class of race and that will differ at each track as I believe some courses the form works out better than others, thats just my opinion. So a Class 3 race at say Newbury will have a better rating than a Class 3 race at Wincanton for example. I split the tracks into 3, the garde 1 courses, the rubbish and those in the middle. Again its personal which makes them original too. I dont like Speed ratings at all i'm afraid, especially over jumps. The pace of the races and the quirks of the tracks make it impossible to be accurate in my opinion, quite often they bypass hurdles/fences and shift the running rails, they do that a lot on the flat nowadays too so how can two meetings be compared?? Too many variable for me although I do see how certain places it could work, esp on the AW for example, a bit like Greyhounds, they run over the same track conditions time after time. The guidelines for ratings are as follows; Class 5: 95-100 Class 4: 105-120 Class 3: 125-140 Class 2: 145+ Class 1: 150 Graded races are split into 3 and can be anything up to 170. Theres other things to take into consideration like if its a Mares race I take 7lbs off as they will recieve that when taking on the Boys. Jockey allowances is tricky, do you take it off or leave it? Once you get a place to keep them its quite easy to update every couple of days. You can use the Post (My ratings section) Free, HRB at a fiver a month or go away from the online database with Raceform but thats more expensive. You could just keep them in Excel manually but that is a lot of work. With the others you only have to work the winners rating out and they do the rest of the field for you, you just then tweak it here and there. I do it for something to do and keep an interest in the sport really, i'm always messing about with it and its just a hobby, it wont get me rich or anything as this thread is and will prove, but I enjoy it anyway. Good luck:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Top Rated: Sedgefield: 1.50 Red Skipper 2nd 12/1 Fontwell: 12.40 Secret Edge Won 8/11 (2.75) _______________________________ Awful racing today and no bets for me. Top Rated; Hexham: 120 Camden George (9/4 Bet365) Leicester: 200 Verde Goodwood (7/2 Bet365)

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Top Rated; Hexham: 120 Camden George Won 9/4 Leicester: 200 Verde Goodwood Won 11/2 SP Total: +5.00 :ok

[Boulder5111]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season going well BH - Well done (the double was around a 20/1 shot) :ok