2011/12 Jumps Season

[BillyHills]

Ok, here we go again, 6 months of terrific jumping action. Selections will be based on my ratings and unlike last season I will be looking at handicaps as well as the novice hurdlers. I'll start with a bank of 150pts which is 25pts for each month so should keep it going through to April. Stakes will be either 2pts win or 1pt EW and i'll be using Paddy Power to fund this thread and only using their prices and special bets (unless something really sticks out elsewhere) Some bets will be posted on Sports Punter also. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 150 Exeter: Grand Vision 1pt EW (9/2 bog) Watched this one closely on his debut and was impressed by both his jumping and his stamina, he will need both here and expect him to improve as so many of the Tizzard horses do for a run. Obviously the fav trained by Paul Nicholls is well regarded and will back the selection EW in case the rumours are true. If they do think he's useful then he will be backed into a very short price and that should push the selection out beyond 5/1 for a bet to nowt.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season I'll be keeping watch BH. :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Best of luck BH!

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 150 Exeter: Grand Vision 1pt EW (9/2 bog) 3rd Connections said after the race that he needed softer ground, ok run, first two making their debuts and could be useful so may not have been as bad as first looks. Opened 6/1 and backed into 4's so a profit was there to be had all be it a small one. Bank 149.90pts

[Trotter]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Good luck BH ............:ok Think I'll take a bit more of an interest in the jumps this winter.......:D

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 210 Warwick: High Samana 2pts Evens bog Juvenile hurdle at Warwick where the ground remains good to firm. Experience counts for a lot in these races as does stamina and High Samana has both, he travelled extremely well on his hurdles debut at Kempton and was the only one to give Alf Raamsey a run for his money, he had already won three times and wasnt disgraced in a greded event at Wetherby last week. He's sure to have come on for the run and looks to have the top one Guards Chapel to beat, they were closely matched on the flat and the selection recieves 7lbs here due to the Moore runner winning at Wincanton, that was weaker in my eyes than the Kempton race and High Samana should get off the mark.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 210 Warwick: High Samana 2pts 4th Disappointing run, never looked to be settled and made a costly error down the backstraight. Race went to a 20/1 shot. _____________________________________ 100 Muss: The Starboard Bow 1pt EW 11/2 bog Set a decent standard last season in novice races and ended up running at the festival in the Fred Winter Juvenile race, he was 10th that day and not disgraced in top company. Had a pipe opener at Kelso over a trip too far when third to Aikmen and then ran at Carlisle in a fair race, he was caught flat footed round the home turn and then stayed on well after the last to finish 4th to Attaglance. That was over 2m1f and this extra trip round this sharp track will be ideal. The young lad again takes the ride taking 10lbs off and he has been dropped a couple of pounds too so looks better handicapped than most in a competitive little handicap.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 100 Muss: The Starboard Bow 1pt EW Lost Never travelled, the race was always a yard too quick for him and he will better on a track where stamina is the key thing. ____________________________ 110 Hexham: Palomar 2pts 10/11 On a ratings point of view Palomar is so far clear of his rivals its worth taking a chance on his first run of the season at this price, should be 4/7 really and was a classy performer at one time, now 9 and the connections must think there wont be any takers for a horse that old as they risk losing him here, should bolt up but Hexham is a funny old place, many odds on fav's gte turned over here but i cant ignore this one today.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 110 Hexham: Palomar 2pts 10/11 Another shocker from a favourite at Hexham? Bank 143.90pts ____________________________________ Loads of good horses today and hard to pinpoint a nap; 245 Wincanton: Grandouet 2pts 5/6 Smart juvenile last season and was third in the Triumph after taking time to adjust to hurdles earlier on. Ended up winning at the Punchestown festival from Kumbeshwar and it is solid form. He gets 10lbs from the Nicholls horse Celestial Halo who has been known to run the odd horror show and is not as reliable as he once was as he gets older. Had a failed novice chase career last season and happy to take him on here with the youngster, expected 4/6 to be honest?

[Stevet1859]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Grandouet was going like the most likely winner BH - here's to better luck through the winter. I think its a good touch how you start by saying how the previous selection ran.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 245 Wincanton: Grandouet Well, Grandouet in my opinion was about to win, but i would say that wouldnt I, seriously though he was travelling well and Celestial Halo wanted to have stretched his lead by the time Grandouet came down and in fact they were a lenght apart. Anyway we will never know and thats jump racing, need some luck. _____________________________________________ 320 Southwell: Knockalongi 2pts 6/5 Looks a two horse race on form and the selection should get the better of Mish Mir at these weights. The Henderson horse has won two races and carries a double penalty here, he struggled to win the first of those and the other race was very weak, I'm not sure the form amounts to much and a claimer has been put on board to take 7lbs off, I think McCoy actually gets the horse to run and would sooner have him on top with the weight, anyway Knockalongi ran well in his bumpers and then put up a good performance against one of Hobb's useful novices at Worcester, they were miles clear of anything else and was well backed that day suggesting he's a decent sort. If he's any good at all he has to beat the Mish Mir here you would have to think. The yard are in fair nick too so everything looks set for a victory here.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 320 Southwell: Knockalongi 2nd Beginning to think I started this a month early! Anyway no excuses, Mish Mir was left alone to dictate and the selection needed cover but ran too free, had to chase the leader on the second circuit as he was getting away and never got on terms, I think Knockolongi is still worth following, he was very well backed into 8/13 and just needs a bigger field with a stronger pace to come off. Bank 139.90 ____________________________________ 200 Sedgefield: Flinty Bay 5/2 2pts I was at Aintree when Flinty Bay ran third in a fair race, he jumped well and I thought he was unlucky on his debut when hampered and unseated rider. He goes straight into handicaps on the same mark he ran the last time he was over hurdles and I think he will be better chaser so in thoery is well in here and Nicky Richards thinks a lot of this young horse. Stable had a winner the other day and this race looks average and well within the capablilties of the selection. __________________

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 200 Sedgefield: Flinty Bay 5/2 Fell I dont bemoan my luck over the jumps as i reckon it sorts itself out over a season but you have to wonder what I have to do to get a winner. After Grandouet on Saturday we had Flinty Bay yesterday, both travelling like the winner two out and both made unbelievable mistakes to unseat their riders! Anyway Flinty Bay looks well handicapped as long as they dont hike him up too much for this, the handicapper has been known to raise fallers which i'm not in agreement with at all, i'm sure he can find a small race soon. _____________________________________ 350 Exeter: Kentford Grey Lady 1pt EW (6/1) (8/1 with Hills) Nice novice hurdle and the top three in the betting all have solid claims but I like Kentford Grey Lady at the prices receiving weight from both Golden Gael and Dream Function. The fav is a very promising bumper horse from the Nick Williams yard and if she's 100% here he will take all the beating but I never back horses on their first run over hurdles and the value lies with the selection at around 8/1. She was made second fav on her debut and everything went wrong (hence I dont back them first time) she made a bad blunder early on and then lost her place and was forced wide, she ran on well but was never threatening the winner. She wants further anyway and steps up to 2m3f here and with the experience she should come on a lot and be competitive. 220 Exeter: Our Island 1pt EW 4/1 Terrific Novice Chase and I like Our Island for this, he did ok on his chasing debut at Chepstow and stayed on up the hill, he jumped adequately and can only improve and being lightly raced has plenty of scope. Golden Cheiftain is fav and is the highest rated over hurdles but that mark was inflated after winning a weak race at Uttoxeter so i'm not sure he his that far in front of Our Island, he makes his debut and although the Tizzard stable are going ok, one or two of them looked in need of a run and is worth talking on first time out. Price is a bit skinny but hopefully will drift on course for a bet to nothing scenario.

[Aykay1]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Good luck for the season :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 350 Exeter: Kentford Grey Lady 3rd 7/1 220 Exeter: Our Island 2nd 4/1 Neither selections look like winning, Kentford Grey Lady was never put in the race and the trainer said the ground was too soft for the mare, she plodded on for a clear third and will be of interest on a sound surface over 2m4f. Our Island was well backed into 11/4 and although disputed the lead for most of the journey he didnt look as though he was ever dominating. Conditions were right so maybe he's not as good as I first thought? _______________________________ 300 Ludlow: Lucky Breeze 1pt EW 14/1 Mediocre stuff today and one with a chance at decent odds might be Lucky Breeze in a very average novice hurdle. The fav is a McCain/McCoy debutant which should go well but at 6/4 looks poor value. Lucky Breeze was rated about 10lbs lower than the fav on the flat but has had a couple of runs over hurdles now and has shown glimpses of ability. His debut at Huntingdon was a fair race where he was 10th behind Tonys Star and Paintball, he didnt jump that well that day but was much better when last seen at Sandown when he was second in a small field to Kayef. While that race wasnt anything spectacular he did finish in front of one or two better fancied horses that day and was a big improvement. At 14/1 he may be worth a small EW bet.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 300 Ludlow: Lucky Breeze Lost Quick pace left him niggling and looks a non stayer to me, will need to find a weak race and a small field to win over hurdles. Bank 136.10 ________________________________ 1230 Newcastle: Zaplamation 100/30, Dubawi Phanton 9/4 1pt Each Average looking novice hurdle and looks best left to the two most promising horses in the field. Zaplamation made too many errors and didnt settle on his first try over hurdles but was much better at Wetherby last time out finishing second to a fair sort. He should be thereabouts here. The only danger on paper is the top one Dubawi Phantom, rated in the 100's on the flat and won coisly on his debut at Uttoxeter, next time out in a much better race he was badly hampered and unseated at Kempton. He carries a penalty but looks a useful recruit and the stable are in terrific form. 4.05 Cheltenham: Grands Crus 2pts 7/4 (5/2 at SJ) Based purely on ratings Grands Crus should win this, he was much higher in the rating over hurdles and recieves weight today from both Cue Card and Champion Court. He makes his debut over fences but has jumped well over brush hurdles before and in France. He won at this meeting first time out last season over this trip and will be spot on here being from the Pipe yard, the price is too good to let go and whatever the result it should be a fascinating contest.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Yesterdays bet and round up has vanished!! ?? I'll sort it out later in a rush now; The bet was posted in the BBOTD ok? Changed it to EW for this thread and looks like its not been sent.

410 Cheltenham: Join Together 1pt EW 9/2 Nice novice chase and Restless Harry will no doubt be a popular winner, however at the prices he's poor value here on his debut over fences. Viking Blond will make this a good test with his front running tactics and that will play into the hands of the Nicholls horse Join Together. He was going when falling at Chepstow in a good race and has ran well here in the past when second to Mossley in a grade 2 event. The ground will be ok and any rain will help his cause as he stays really well. At the prices he's the value for me.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season Anyway on to today; 3.30 Cheltenham: Fingal Bay 2pts 11/10 Busy tomorrow so will put this one up now, Novice hurdle over 2m5f and Fingal Bay looks hard to beat here, he won his bumper in a canter and then was impressive at Chepstow in the Grade 2 Persian War race the other week, that was on good to soft over 20f and this trip on a stiff track should suit him down to ground. Plenty of useful types in opposition but this horse should go on to much better things and win here without too much fuss. Will do a round up later tonight or in the morning:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1230 Newcastle: Zaplamation, Dubawi Phanton Both Lost 4.05 Cheltenham: Grands Crus Won (7/4) 410 Cheltenham: Join Together Won 9/2 (EW) 3.30 Cheltenham: Fingal Bay Won 11/10 Ok, lets try the round up for Fridays action again; The race at Newcastle was a big let down, I had it down as a two horse race and yet both selections were held up at the back and for some reason any horses at the rear failed to reach the leaders, Zaplamation made headway but pulled so hard early on he had little left and finished third, he will win one of these but cant be expected to make 20 lengths up with three to jump. Dubai Phantom was never in the hunt and wanst ridden too vigourously when it was obvious he wasnt going to get involved. He may have been flattered by his first run and needs to answer questions now. Grands Crus pleased me a lot, the 5/2 on offer at Stan James was just too big to let pass and it wanst a surprise to see him well backed on the course especially after Pipe had won earlier races. He jumped well in the main and took a chance with the ditch but regained his composure by the time he jumped the next, thats a sign of a good horse to me, often novices will make one blunder and the confidence goes and they end up making one after the other. He will go to the top i have no doubt. Cue Card once again was too head strong for his own good, he has let connections down on the big stage three times now and you have to wonder if we will ever see the real Cue Card, i'm sure he has stacks of ability, i'm just not sure he will show it in top class company over fences. The other novice chase at Cheltenham was a cracker, I fancied two to take on Restless Harry with, Join Together and Viking Blond. The latter predictably led for most of the trip and jumped really well, I like him a lot and will surely win races this season, he was outstayed in the end by some useful horses. Restless Harry does jump low and I just thought these fences may catch him out but to his credit he didnt jump too badly and ran on well in the end, I reckon he will stay extreme distances but have to say if he was mine i'd stick to hurdling this season. Join Together had always been a chaser and likes this track, Ruby gave him a great ride and he didnt have too much left at the end, he will be better in soft ground and got away with this one I reckon. Bank 145.42 Fingal Bay was quite impressive today I thought, he made a terrible error two out that would have undone a few horses but he pinged the last and put the contest to bed pretty quickly. He stayed up the hill very strongly and looks useful. Of the beaten horses Barbatos ran well and pick up his fair share of novice hurdles this year.

[Spooner]

Good weekend BH well done :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 100 Plumpton: Aikideau 2pts 4/5 PP Richard Rowe has kept Aikideau back to have a second season novice hurdling, he was put in at the deep end twice last season and ended running at the Festival where he was 11th to Zarkandar, he has run in a grade 2 race at Kempton prior to that when he was 6th to the same horse. This is a much easier contest and being owned by the Stewart Family he held in high regard, i expect him to go on to much better things this season so has to win this you would have thought. 250 Leicester: Katies Tuitor 1pt EW 4/1 Lads First Fandango is a hot favourite for this and I cant knock his form at all but I just think on the prices Katies Tuitor is a bet to nothing with the 4/1 on offer at a few bookies if we go each way. Only 5 runners so need them all to turn up for the two places but if she gets an easy lead we might not need them. Held up off the pace last time but has led in her hurdles races before, I cant find anything that will take these along and if she gets into a rhythm out front she could be hard to peg back. The favourite had a hard race last time and could be vulnerable in a small field so worth taking on here. The others dont really look up to this class so if First Fandango does bolt up hopefully Katies will hang on for second and recoup the stakes.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 100 Plumpton: Aikideau 2nd 250 Leicester: Katies Tuitor 3rd Disappointing day, Aikadeau had no excuses and bumped into one of Emma Lavelle's improvers, the winner had shown nothing on debut but was allowed an easy lead here and never looked liked being troubled. Katies Tuitor was held up again, not sure why as there was no pace and she got done for toe on the run in and lost second on the line. All her best runs have come when she has been ridden handily or led so not sure whats going on there? The winner First Fandango did what he had to do but the race was run to suit and dont think he achieved much to be honest. ______________________________ Todays bet has been withdrawn, I fancied Dots Delight in the seller, it was a poor race and she has slipped down the weights, on some of her form she was thrown in. Anyway theres nothing else to get excited about, i'm interested in Dr Darcey in the juvenile event but not strong enough to advise a bet. Bank 141.42

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 2.10 Hexham: Faith Keeper 1pt EW (11/2 PP) Think this may be a well planned job going on here, Fergal O'Brien has done well with his string since starting training this year and has had a winner when travelling up north with a debutant for the season. This one was with NTD and raced over 2 miles, he had been going over a mile further in the point field previously and considering the trip was way too short he didnt do too badly, one run was 25 lenghts behing Splinter Sacre. 2m4f in soft will be much better and this race wont take much winning like they can do at the Southern tracks at this trip. Timmy Murphy takes the ride and this one has been backed over night at 7/1 and 13/2, his f/c price was 10/1 and now this looks more like it at around 5's. His mark of 102 gives the trainer something to work on and i'll be surprised if he's not in the shake up here. At 11/2 he's a bet to nowt each way and worth a dabble at those odds.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 2.10 Hexham: Faith Keeper 4th Rated 102, ran like a horse who wants to be dropped a couple of pounds and then can get into a 0-100 handicap over 2m6f or 3m. Jockey steadied him into last 3 hurdles and lost valuable ground, stayed ok and is definitely one to keep an eye on. Bank 139.42 ____________________________ 320 MR: Roxane Bruere 2pts 11/4 Bet365 Think this one has a very solid chance, Robin Dickins horses are running well and has the assistance of one of the better lady jockeys in this race. Was second at Ludlow on his second run and now should be spot on, due to go up in the weights but races here of a very lenient mark.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 320 MR: Roxane Bruere 2nd Ran well enough but was collared after the last Bank 137.42 ___________________________ 3.55 Ascot: Rajnagan 1pt EW (7/1 Bet365) Decoy is the hot fav here on the strenghth of his win at Cheltenham, doesnt get a penalty for that so will be hard to beat for sure, at the prices i'd sooner be on Rajnagan here, he's very consistent and and still on the upgrade, he should have won last time out but misjudged the last hurdle and was outpointed by Elsafeer on the run in. Cant see him being out the three here, should be around 9/2 in my opinion. 2.45 Ascot: Rougham 1pt EW (6/1 Lads) Decent handicap here and Balzaccio is fav, he only won two novice chases and now goes back handicapping and worth taking on here with Rougham. He's a front runner and likes this course, he ran well on is seasonal debut when he was third and should be spot on now and must be in the frame at least.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 3.55 Ascot: Rajnagan Lost 2.45 Ascot: Rougham P/U Not much to say about yesterday really, Roughma was going nicely until ploughing through one and pulling up soon afterwards. Rajnagan looked beaten 3 out and was eased after that. Bank 133.42 ______________________________ 12.15 Hay Grandouet 5/6 3.05 Hay Long Run 5/4 both with Betfed 2pts Double pays just over 3/1 Obviously Grandouet is selected after an unlucky defeat at Wincanton, he should be too good for these on a track that will suit perfectly. Long Run is having his first run of the season and many have said this is the time to take him on, at the end of the day he's the best horse in the race by a few pounds and should win. 1250 Hay: Attaglance EW 12/1 Bet365 This one is worth a bet at decent odds trying a new trip and at the bottom of the handicap, he should like a good pace to follow and has shown he has a rurn of foot and with one or two maybe not 100% for this he could take a place in the frame and if he's still improving he might upset the applecart.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1250 Hay: Attaglance 3rd 12.15 Hay Grandouet Won 3.05 Hay Long Run 2nd Attaglance ran quite well and was staying on again on the run in, he's well handicapped at the moment and should find another race before too long. Grandouet was really impressive and must now be stepped up in class and a live contender for the top races over 2 miles. Long Run probably just needed the race but you cant take anything away from Kauto Star, all i will say is I know which one I want to be on at Cheltenham come March. Bank 132.42 __________________________ No bet today I'm going to make a list of anything I think is worth following later on, whether they have been selections or involved in the races I have selected previously.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1250 Ffos Las: High Storm 1pt EW 4/1 PP,WH I like the form of the Bangor novice hurdle that Distime won earlier in the month, a similar race at the track last year produced many winners and I think that race will do likewise. High Storm ran really well back in second and that was on the back of a good run behind Prospect Wells at Chepstow, the form in that contest has held up too. He will appreciate the step up in trip and has the Henderson bumper horse to worry about, have to take it on as not all of Hendersons have been ready first time up.

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011/12 Jumps Season 1250 Ffos Las: High Storm 4th Dodnt seem to relish the soft ground and extra trip combined, this was a step backwards for a horse that looked to have scope. Bank 130.42 _________________________ No Bet today:ok