Tennis - 24-30 October

[thehulk]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Pinnacle released line: +4.5. (2.2) I'm on that too with PP and Pin. gl if u play it.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October I've gone for Over 19.5 games on the Tsonga-Brands match at 4/6. Surely that's a banker, what with Tsonga being an average returner(relatively) and 'Brainless Brands' not being at ATG returner himself.

[thehulk]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October should be yes, but I prefer the handicap here. Pin line got hammered!!!! Offerign 1.78 now!! Hahahahah.

[TheBigWheelerDealer]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

NOTHING was appealing about it, I took it as part of 2 accumulators, one five fold and one seven fold, I had her remaining on both of them to complete the win and she intentionally lost. I took her in play @ bet 365 when down 4-1 .. if she could not be bothered ... why try @ 4-1? why not tank the match from there ... instead she did a little tease and tanked it after she got everyone's hopes riding. If the bookies have any sort of remorse they would reimburse every lost bet on that match, because it quite clearly wasn't a match after 3-3 in the second.

You are embarassing yourself without realising it so quit. I take it you do this sort of thing recreationally? If so, why cry about losing money? One thing I've learned from betting on sports is that it is predictably predictable. I do this for a living, have been for almost a year and am struggling to make ends meet. Just when you think you've hit a winner, the game turns on its head. I lost a four-digit sum on an IPL game two weeks ago. All along my bet seemed like it would win. Last ball, the opposing team requires exactly six to win. What do you think happened next? I've seen so many, many, many close games across all sports that I know now that there is no such thing as a ''banker''. Just be careful, ride the highs and don't get too demoralised when you lose because you WILL lose more frequently than you win. This is why you've got to have a strong heart if you bet on sports for a living.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

Its £75 and you get worked up about it? If you get worked up over peanuts you got no chance for the long run' date=' forget it and move on.[/quote'] :eyes Didn't bother to ask me how much I lost on Zvonareva yesterday huh? 3 mps and takes none, Radwanska pushing the ball back and Zvon acting like she's giving her a coaching session on how to retrieve. Most of my anger is an accumulation of things from the past week. First: Jeremy Chardy fixing his match, that lost me a fourfold which I put a healthy sum on. Second: Zvonareva choking away those MPS. Third: Azarenka not being bothered to play professionally. How much bad luck can one guy get in one week? HOW MUCH? Is this bad luck or is this torture?

[TheBigWheelerDealer]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

I've gone for Over 19.5 games on the Tsonga-Brands match at 4/6. Surely that's a banker' date=' what with Tsonga being an average returner(relatively) and 'Brainless Brands' not being at ATG returner himself.[/quote'] Be careful though. If you watched today's game, Tsonga's serve was untouchable in the last two sets, especially the last set where he lost just one point on serve in the whole set. He was supreme against Malisse who wasn't serving too badly himself. If Brands gets frustrated early in the game, its lights out for him as Tsonga won't allow himself to be broken again. Brands is playing well this tournament but a 6-3, 6-4 loss could still lose the bet for you. As someone said on this thread earlier, playing Brands on a handicap seems the best bet.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

Be careful though. If you watched today's game, Tsonga's serve was untouchable in the last two sets, especially the last set where he lost just one point on serve in the whole set. He was supreme against Malisse who wasn't serving too badly himself. If Brands gets frustrated early in the game, its lights out for him as Tsonga won't allow himself to be broken again. Brands is playing well this tournament but a 6-3, 6-4 loss could still lose the bet for you. As someone said on this thread earlier, playing Brands on a handicap seems the best bet.

It's a tricky one. Fishy25 backed Starace on the handicap today, and it looked to be the right call when Starace won the first set, however Janko tore through him in the next two and the bet was lost. I worry about the same thing happening tomorrow. Brands winning a the first set tie-break and then getting taken apart in the third after losing the second 6-4 or 6-3. I'm banking on Brands losing 7-5 6-2.

[TheBigWheelerDealer]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

It's a tricky one. Fishy25 backed Starace on the handicap today, and it looked to be the right call when Starace won the first set, however Janko tore through him in the next two and the bet was lost. I worry about the same thing happening tomorrow. Brands winning a the first set tie-break and then getting taken apart in the third after losing the second 6-4 or 6-3. I'm banking on Brands losing 7-5 6-2.

Yes, see what you mean. The +6.5 games is nowhere to be found now and that is the only line I'll play so no bet for me.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October How much does Brands have left in the tank? He's done well to get this far but barring Stepanek, look who he's had to beat. Darcis and Fischer are not exactly world-beaters. It's all on Tsonga's racket. He's been average too but we know he's got several gears he can bounce through if need be. And by all accounts, he was playing a lot better come the end of the match with Malisse last night. You're counting on a big performance from Brands to get these lines covered, against a top 10 player, whose best conditions are indoors. It's a risk, and for me, you'd need some good odds to take that risk, not 1.80 dwellers, which is essentially what's happening. Not saying it won't come up, but adding some 'devil's advocate thinking' to the debate.

[Ka4by]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October lines are out -3.5 on kvitova and -3.5 azarenka with bet365 @ 8/11 looks abit skinny to me .. younzhy -1.5 looks appealing @ 4/5 i think younzhy has5-0 record over cillic n cillic looked poor today tbh will make a final decision tommorow .. views on the handicaps or any other matches would be appreciated GL all !!

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

How much bad luck can one guy get in one week? HOW MUCH? Is this bad luck or is this torture?

...as many have stated before, it's the WTA :eyes ------- Thanks for the heads up Hulk. Definitely with you on this one. Tsonga's slow starts this week would sway me towards the overs but I do agree that Tsonga does possess a forceful game once he gets the groove. When that will be, set one or two, is hard to say but when he does, he is just a couple of shoe sizes too big for Brands. I believe it to be rather sooner than later, as I am sure he does not want to get through the same as he did with Malisse today. I am also going with the +5.5 Handi, as I doubt it will go to three sets and a 6:3 6:4 sorta thing is quite likely, depending on the order of serve. On a side note, what is up with that purple discotheque lighting when the players switch sides in Vienna? I find it terribly distracting... and I am just a spectator. As a player I would find it impossible to focus.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

lines are out -3.5 on kvitova and -3.5 azarenka with bet365 @ 8/11 looks abit skinny to me .. younzhy -1.5 looks appealing @ 4/5 i think younzhy has5-0 record over cillic n cillic looked poor today tbh will make a final decision tommorow .. views on the handicaps or any other matches would be appreciated GL all !!

Cilic beat him last time they played on indoor hard in Marseille, although if memory serves me correctly, Youzhny choked when serving for the match. Their last match, in Hamburg, was an epic. Youzhny won in a final-set tie-break when his shot dropped over the net after hitting the net cord, leaving Cilic with no chance. Think, all things considered, that'll be quite a spicy affair. Cilic is improving, and wouldn't want to call it. Statistically, it's normally an overs affair when these two meet.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Not touch anything for tomorrow, especially not from the men's side, can't call Cilic vs Youhzny .. mainly due to Cilic's stupidness ... Its obvious who should win in the WTA semi's but as has been proven, all is best left for in play betting and just back the girl that's streaks behind in the match and is heavy odds against coming. :eyes

[thehulk]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

How much does Brands have left in the tank? He's done well to get this far but barring Stepanek, look who he's had to beat. Darcis and Fischer are not exactly world-beaters. It's all on Tsonga's racket. He's been average too but we know he's got several gears he can bounce through if need be. And by all accounts, he was playing a lot better come the end of the match with Malisse last night. You're counting on a big performance from Brands to get these lines covered, against a top 10 player, whose best conditions are indoors. It's a risk, and for me, you'd need some good odds to take that risk, not 1.80 dwellers, which is essentially what's happening. Not saying it won't come up, but adding some 'devil's advocate thinking' to the debate.

When was the last time Tsonga put in a top performance and went through the gears? He didnt mange to change gear V's Kei and hes on a downward spiral imo, out of the top ten. He could have lost today V;s a punk and if Nieminen was not injured he would have probably lost. Brands serve has been outstanding this week, on a par with Anderson imo. Even with the bye, Tsonga has probably spent more time on court getting here. This could be a very close game, and to cover 5.5 will be easy imo. Ofc anything can happen, but looks big value to me and just what I am looking for.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

When was the last time Tsonga put in a top performance and went through the gears? He didnt mange to change gear V's Kei and hes on a downward spiral imo, out of the top ten. He could have lost today V;s a punk and if Nieminen was not injured he would have probably lost. Brands serve has been outstanding this week, on a par with Anderson imo. Even with the bye, Tsonga has probably spent more time on court getting here. This could be a very close game, and to cover 5.5 will be easy imo. Ofc anything can happen, but looks big value to me and just what I am looking for.

Brands came through the qualies and saved match points against Fischer. I'm afraid he has spent far more time on court than Tsonga has. Big Jo-Willy is also going for the end-of-season tour finals, so he's got something to chew on. Malisse is a decent player indoors, I'm not overly surprised he took him close. Also, him, Nieminen and Nishikori are far superior players to Brands. Yes, Tsonga's not been firing on all cylinders recently. Not disputing that for a second. Not even disputing your bet or logic - everyone sees things differently - but I'm giving another side to it. One other thing to consider. By the end of the Darcis match, Brands was on thin ice. Failed to serve it out the first time and then almost lost it second time round. From past experience with Brands, once his serve goes, that's it, he's in big trouble. You're odds will be skinny on the lines you've hit, but that's for a reason - they have a good chance. I wish you luck with them. As long as you've found value in them and have done your research, then you should go for it.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Here's a quote from another forum in response to someone throwing out more of the match fixing malarkey in regard to the Aza game...

The odds were even going into the 3rd set and the bookies were probably taken to the cleaners. Their own damn luck, if they aren´t awrae of the situation and offer betting on a dead rubber. How is it match-fixing, if everybody knows it? The bookies ban successful bettors all the time, but they are the victims here? If you offered even money as a bookie or bet on Vika at those odds you are simply a d*******, who had it coming.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October ....and here is a very interesting response....

A little hostile there dipshit? First and foremost, the bookies don't dictate the ingame odds, bet-fair traders do and sportsbooks adjust their odds accoridngly. The odds weren't even, either. Bartoli was 1.81 entering the final set, and 1.33 after Bartoli went up 1-0 in the final set. The liquidity on bet fair was outrageous as people were laying huge sums of Bartoli to win any price. Also, in the second set, big money started getting bet on Bartoli as soon as Azarenka went up 2-0 which indicated someone knew Azarenka was going to tank exactly when she did. There is tanking a match normally, then there is winning the first set, going up a double break and proceeding to implode coincidentally at the same time Bartoli got bet huge. That does not indicate tanking, but rather a potential fix. I have nothing against fixers at all, but this match was rather interesting. Why would Azarenka fight back to win the opening set before clearly tanking? Lastly, i'm not upset at all because of this - just fascinated - actually I bet Bartoli relatively heavy after the 2nd set, because by judging the odds and the amount of money being matched on Bartoli at exchanges, there was no chance Azarenka was going to win. Wager details for ticket number 93993869-1: Wager Type: Money Line Wager Status: Win Risk / To Win Amount: 1250.00 / 416.67 (USD) Accepted 10/28/2011 3:21 PM - EST Won: 416.67 Amount Paid: 1666.67 Sport / Period: Live In-Play Tennis / Game Line: Marion Bartoli 10/28/2011 11:15:01 AM - (EST) -300 Opponent: Victoria Azarenka * Game Notes: winner must win 2 sets for action

[homunculus]

It was nice to look through all that post about Vika losing the yesterday's match :-) I stated earlier that I consider betting on this tournament bad idea, but I am going to break this for today Zvonareva to bt Azarenka @3.22 Pinnacle small stake Azarenka does not like to play at night and then to have an important match some 17-18 hours later. She is not the fittiest lady on the tour and already had to retire four times this year (plus one walkover). The very similar situation was in Rome this year, where Aza won a three setter vs Pavlyushenkova at about 1 am, and had to play QF vs Sharapova some 18 hours later. She lost 4-6 3-0 ret. Now as Zvonareva is concerned, she is showing Up and Down performance patern in this tournament. H2H is 6-4 for Vera, and if she plays like against Woz, she should win. If she plays like against Kvitova, she should lose. But considering the fact that Vika finished her funny performance against Bartoli at about 11:15 pm local time yesterday, and that her match against Vera should start at about 16 hours later, and that IMO Vera will be extremely motivated because she shoudl not be here and was given the SEMI chance by the god himself (Radwanska should be here instead), and that Vera had a day off yesterday, this all gives me about 50-50 chance for Vera. 3.22 is just too much IMO. GL :hope

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Small loss yesterday, can't be bothered to find the original post with all the jeremy kyle discussions going on ;) But a small loss of a couple of units for yesterday. Wish Azarenka wouldn't have bothered started playing as she was 4-0 down in the first set, but then wish she would have got it over and done with when she was 2-0 up in the second, but you have to take it on the head with women's tennis. Anyways taking 4 today. Agree with homonculus on Zvonereva, God help us. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-4 games AH) to beat Daniel Brands- 9/10 Sportingbet- (3/10) Know there has been a lot of discussion about this one in the thread already and initially I was going to take the German on the handicap, but after closer inspection, I've completely gone against that. He has now played 6 matches this week in total, and now I fear he might be just feeling it a bit. Yesterday he was struggling to serve out the match with Darcis, after seemingly cruising all the way through. That was perhaps an early indication of the serve no working as well as it did against Stepanek earlier on in the week. If his serve isn't getting him tons of cheap points, he will really struggle against Tsonga. The Frenchman hasn't looked great, and yesterday he took a while to get going, at least on serve against Malisse, but Malisse is by no stretch of the imagination on the same level as Brands, and for a good chunk of that match, the Belgian was showing his class like we know he can do. Feel today might be different though. Tsonga still has his place in London to make sure of, so he'll be desperate to win this one. This more or less depends on Brands' serve though, it'll either be superb like it has done, or pretty average, and I'm backing the latter after the ending part of his match yesterday. Kevin Anderson vs Juan Martin Del Porto- Over 22.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) See no reason why this shouldn't be close for the majority. Anderson was very impressive against Melzer, on the Austrian's home soil, and has been playing well for a while now, and these days, only really gets beaten in tight matches by the better players, on the quicker courts anyways. The indoor surfaces fit big Kev's game well, as it allows him to pick up those cheap points with his big serve, and hard hitting groundstrokes. The wins over Baghdatis and then Melzer should give him some confidence going into the match today. Backed Del Porto yesterday and he was never really troubled against Haas, but like I said, wasn't too sure what kind of shape Haas was in after playing a fair bit of tennis recently. This will be a much stiffer test for the Argentinian. He won't be allowed to dictate most of the rallies, and he shouldn't be allowed to get too much of Anderson's serve, which leads me to thinking there could be at least a tie break in this one, but for the majority it should be tight. Del Porto won earlier on in the year 6-4 6-4, but the South African has improved all year, so I'd fancy him to stick with Juan Martin here. Mikhail Youzhny (-1.5 games) to beat Marin Cilic- 19/20 Sportingbet- (3/10) Backed both players yesterday on the handicap, but the Russian impressed me a whole lot more than Cilic did. The Croatian could have quite easily lost in straight sets yesterday against Seppi, with him starting slowly, and his serve not really being on song for the majority. He has played two 3 setter in a row now, against guys he really should be beating comfortably if he was anywhere near in form. Youzhny was extremely comfortable against Mannarino yesterday, and he didn't have to play extremely well to beat him, which shows he can still go up a couple of gears if he needs to today. I actually think his past few matches have been perfect warm up for the Russian this week. Stakhovsky, Benneteau and Mannarino are all very different players indeed, so the Russian will have been able to work on his complete game, which is hopefully what he needs to get back into some form, which he has been lacking for a while. Regardless, he's been a whole lot better than Cilic has, and leads that H2H 5-1, and despite most matches going the distance, the handicap should be landed if he wins in 3.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Forgot to add... Vera Zvonareva to beat Victoria Azarenka- 2/1 Bet365- (2/10) Hope a sense or good comes out of this one. A lot of talk about Azarenka yesterday in her match against Bartoli, but although she did tank at the end, I still don't think she'll be at 100%, so I don't see why the Russian is so high. She leads the H2H overall 6-4, and should be the fresher of the two girls, so I'll have a punt and hope she takes this one.

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-4 games AH) to beat Daniel Brands- 9/10 Sportingbet- (3/10) Know there has been a lot of discussion about this one in the thread already and initially I was going to take the German on the handicap, but after closer inspection, I've completely gone against that. He has now played 6 matches this week in total, and now I fear he might be just feeling it a bit. Yesterday he was struggling to serve out the match with Darcis, after seemingly cruising all the way through. That was perhaps an early indication of the serve no working as well as it did against Stepanek earlier on in the week. If his serve isn't getting him tons of cheap points, he will really struggle against Tsonga. The Frenchman hasn't looked great, and yesterday he took a while to get going, at least on serve against Malisse, but Malisse is by no stretch of the imagination on the same level as Brands, and for a good chunk of that match, the Belgian was showing his class like we know he can do. Feel today might be different though. Tsonga still has his place in London to make sure of, so he'll be desperate to win this one. This more or less depends on Brands' serve though, it'll either be superb like it has done, or pretty average, and I'm backing the latter after the ending part of his match yesterday.

Looks like you're right, got broken in his first service game :unsure

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Atko got the Tsonga-Brands match spot on. Tsonga is my nemesis in betting. When I don't bet 'against' him he turns back into Clownonga.

[Atko]

Atko got the Tsonga-Brands match spot on. Tsonga is my nemesis in betting. When I don't bet 'against' him he turns back into Clownonga.

Brands putting up a good fight in this second set. Should get most of the lines covered now :ok Forgot Tsonga and Brands had an epic last year at Roland Garros. Went to five sets.

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Wow, BIG props to Brands for hanging in there after the first set. That was a lot closer than what I would have liked.:ok

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

Brands putting up a good fight in this second set. Should get most of the lines covered now :ok Forgot Tsonga and Brands had an epic last year at Roland Garros. Went to five sets.

:clap I always find a nice pre-emptive sulk on a forum helps to pull around my fortunes.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Unfortunately, the froghead did choose to play like a frog today again. About 350 unforced errors tells it all. I think the best thing for the women's tennis would be if she retires.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Hate Azerenka, hope Kvitova streaky play of hitting winners lasts for an entire two sets and she gets smashed to pieces. Stupid, stuck up, moody, teenage, sulking whore. Muted response to try and win some fans back, oh I am so sorry for my display yesterday, I regret it and came in with a better mentality. Ofcourse you were going to do that, this match had meaning.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October

Hate Azerenka, hope Kvitova streaky play of hitting winners lasts for an entire two sets and she gets smashed to pieces. Stupid, stuck up, moody, teenage, sulking whore. Muted response to try and win some fans back, oh I am so sorry for my display yesterday, I regret it and came in with a better mentality. Ofcourse you were going to do that, this match had meaning.

Calm down mate. BTW, your approach is wrong - in your place (and I am going to do exactly that) i would bet on Vika tomorrow against Kvitova. Kvitova is going to be a fav, so the odds should be favourable. If Vika wins, then at least I shall get my losses covered. If she loses, I would get at least SOMETHING GOOD for my money :-)

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Kvitova 4/6 and Azarenka 6/5 LOL So much for value, the bookies aren't stupid, they know Kvitova should win on this surface but A) its WTA and B) Kvitova is streaky

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis - 24-30 October - Tsonga vs Del Potro - Over 22.5 games with Bodog @ 19/20 - 3.5 Points Quite simple really, both extremely talented players whom each possess stunning serves and forehands to back them up. Both players also are very good at the clutch, absolutely amazing in pressured situations and both players for the most part don't particularly possess that great in defensive qualities. (Not in the Nadal, Djokovic and Murray categorie anyway) This is also an INDOOR hard surface and that for me cements atleast one tie break in the match, with both player's in relatively good form and considering that it's quite hard to separate them in terms of quality, I would say the least likely possibility is 7-6, 6-4 to one player and yet that would still cover the market with 23 games. Three sets would ofcourse cement the market being met. Moderate stakes here.