England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

[Shipsupstreets]

	Friday 21 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Cambridge United v Lincoln City (19:45 BST)	4/6	5/2	7/2	109.62 %
	Grimsby Town v Luton Town (19:45 BST)	9/4	7/3	11/10	108.24 %
	Saturday 22 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	AFC Telford United v Gateshead (15:00 BST)	8/5	12/5	17/10	105.21 %
	Barrow v Kidderminster Harriers (15:00 BST)	6/4	12/5	17/10	106.99 %
	Braintree Town v Darlington (15:00 BST)	13/10	11/5	15/8	109.51 %
	Fleetwood Town v Bath City (15:00 BST)	4/11	3	7	110.83 %
	Hayes & Yeading v York City (15:00 BST)	5/2	12/5	1/1	108.25 %
	Kettering Town v Ebbsfleet United (15:00 BST)	1/1	23/10	14/5	106.87 %
	Mansfield Town v Alfreton Town (15:00 BST)	8/15	14/5	9/2	109.06 %
	Southport v Tamworth (15:00 BST)	17/20	5/2	14/5	107.87 %
	Stockport County v Forest Green Rovers (15:00 BST)	1/1	9/4	5/2	109.34 %
	Wrexham v Newport County (15:00 BST)	4/6	5/2	7/2	109.62 %

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 Kettering Town will be missing John Dempster and Adam Cunnington on Saturday (though there may be appeals), and I'd say those two are pretty key to Mark Stimson's revived squad. It's hard to make Ebbsfleet United anything like sure things, but they shouldn't be as far out as 14/5 as they are coming into something like a semblance of form.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 Kettering v Ebbsfleet The price on Ebbsfleet has done nothing but contract since Wednesday and that is not a big surprise, but I still think that the 2/1 on offer with Paddy Power and Stan James is worth taking. I’ve watched them twice this season and they’ve impressed me both times, so it’s quite a surprise they haven’t won more games. They have now began to get some positive results and their form in the last six matches has been admirable, with three wins, a draw against Luton and two defeats against Wrexham and Gateshead, which isn’t any disgrace. I really think they can make it three on the bounce against a Kettering side who will be down to the bare bones on Saturday. They only had 16 players available for the game against Newport on Tuesday and with two of those sent off, including Adam Cunnington, who I mentioned last week as being a big factor in Kettering’s recent performances, I think they will struggle against an in-form and confident Ebbsfleet. Southport v Tamworth Both sides’ last defeat was at the hands of Braintree, for Southport that was seven games ago and Tamworth four. As I wrote on Tuesday, Southport’s run of form has been hugely impressive and to come back from two goals down against Gateshead really was a superb effort. While they are in this sort of form I think it’s worth continuing to back them. I know Tamworth have won their last three and are doing pretty well themselves but I just don’t think their form equates to as much as Southport’s and apart from their 4-0 win over Lincoln, performances haven’t been that strong. In my view the home side have a clear edge at the moment and I am happy to take VC’s 11/10.

[Stardu5t]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

Event	Grimsby - Luton
Selection	draw
Strength	8/10
Date	21/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.50
Reasoning	Gimsby is ranked at 15th place while on the other side Luton sliped to 5t after the defeat against Wrexham. Here both teams are coming from the defeats Gimsby has two in a row York and Ebbsfleet and now they will look to take some points against Luton which is well known home team,and their performance on the road is not impressing. Town will now certainly make a few changes, probably bringing Makofo back in to a 4-4-2.There are no drastic changes for Grimsby.I expect a tough match here.Draw at the end.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 Both Fleetwood and Mansfield look banker material but, at the odds, neither really appeal to me. However, both are available at odds against giving up a goal start. Fleetwood, at over evens giving up 1 or over 2's giving up 2, are always likely to score a hatfull with their forward line. Mansfield, although not really as prolific, are up against an Alfreton defence that is as loose as a whore's knickers and are available at similar prices. Both are plays for me.

[SpiritOf67]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 Can anyone with a better feel of this league put me off Wrexham who on paper look tremendous value at 8/11? Wrexham are flying and have won 5 on the spin and entertain a Newport side who don't travel well and other than a win at Fleetwood have been very poor on their travels.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

Can anyone with a better feel of this league put me off Wrexham who on paper look tremendous value at 8/11? Wrexham are flying and have won 5 on the spin and entertain a Newport side who don't travel well and other than a win at Fleetwood have been very poor on their travels.

I find it hard to see anything but a Wrexham win, but Newport are getting better and it is a Welsh derby so you have to factor that into your bet I feel.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 Hayes & Yeading United are capable of springing surprises here and there - they persist with a progressive approach - but they are constantly undone by defensive frailties (only Alfreton have conceded more). At home they are generally tighter (their 11 conceded is better than Gateshead and Southport at home), but even so I've sold the time of the 2nd York goal at 68 with Sporting Index. York have been a touch lax defensively themselves at times and I feel they may need to score two to win the game. With a fixed-odds interest in the Kettering/Ebbsfleet game, I'm wary of taking much more, though the spreads on a sell of the 2nd Ebbsfleet goal (75 -Sporting, Spreadex), a total goals buy (2.85 - Spreadex) and Callum Willock's player goal minutes at 20 to buy (Sporting) all look acceptable plays, given the depleted nature of Kettering's side. I've taken Willock's goal minutes as he's in decent nick and should get a number of chances today. The Mansfield/Alfreton game has drawn me into a sell of the time of the 3rd Mansfield goal at 80 with Sporting - a low-risk, high-return trade (in theory). They've been misfiring of late, which should be no surprise given the fact that Paul Cox likes to tinker and that it's early days for project Mansfield. But Alfreton's defensive frailties are many and comical, and I'm not sure signing the odd loanee is going to help. Alfreton are less than full strength today, and are missing some key elements of the spine. With a fair wind, Mansfield should be able to exploit that. Matt Green - who has won handsomely for me this season in the weeks before he got rerated by the spread compilers - is set at a 34 to buy on the player goal minute market, which is high but probably worth the risk.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 That was a frustrating afternoon and will Alfreton ever actually manage to keep 11 men on the pitch?

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 The Ebbsfleet fixed-odds play failed, but what a stonking weekend on the spreads. Mansfield's third was a 10-point loser, and Callum Willock broke even, but York's 2nd goal came on 19 for a 49-point profit and Matt Green's pen for Mansfield produced a 42-point profit. A touch annoying that both the other trades on the Mansfield/Ebbsfleet game that I discussed above made up with decent profits, but it would be churlish to complain after what has been a handsome autumn.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

That was a frustrating afternoon and will Alfreton ever actually manage to keep 11 men on the pitch?

It is a shame that they haven't got a game against Kettering in the near future...it would end up a five a side game!!

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

It is a shame that they haven't got a game against Kettering in the near future...it would end up a five a side game!!

They played each other the other week and Kettering had a man sent off but amazingly Alfreton didnt. Its really hard to see Alfreton staying up already as even when they get into a position of winning or getting a point they shoot themselves in the foot.