Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

[Djordje]

Tuesday 18 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Alfreton Town v Fleetwood Town (19:45 BST)	5.5	3.65	1.8	101.13 %
	Bath City v Stockport County (19:45 BST)	2.62	3.35	2.62	106.04 %
	Darlington v Barrow (19:45 BST)	1.9	3.5	4.2	104.76 %
	Ebbsfleet United v Grimsby Town (19:45 BST)	2.6	3.4	2.6	106.33 %
	Forest Green Rovers v AFC Telford United (19:45 BST)	2.3	3.35	3.1	105.59 %
	Gateshead v Southport (19:45 BST)	2	3.45	3.8	105.30 %
	Kidderminster Harriers v Braintree Town (19:45 BST)	2	3.5	4	103.57 %
	Lincoln City v Mansfield Town (19:45 BST)	2.75	3.45	2.52	105.03 %
	Luton Town v Wrexham (19:45 BST)	2.1	3.4	3.75	103.70 %
	Newport County v Kettering Town (19:45 BST)	2.1	3.5	3.5	104.76 %
	Tamworth v Hayes & Yeading (19:45 BST)	1.8	3.5	4.5	106.35 %
	York City v Cambridge United (19:45 BST)	1.8	3.6	4.33	106.41 %

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 The Newport County v Kettering game interests me. We've yet to see much progress for Newport under their new manager and they are still hugely inconsistent - not many would have thought that a team that could win 4-1 away at Fleetwood would then lose at home to Tamworth. Kettering won away at FGR on Saturday and whilst it's probably a big call for them to win two games on the trot away from home I feel that the away side are worth following. 5/2 available for Kettering to win but I'm taking 6/4 Kettering DNB with Hills :hope

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Others picks... Telford 0 AH 5/4 (Bet365) Think that a draw is by far the most likely outcome in their match with a FGR team who have only won 3 of 16 league games, but Telford did win at York earlier in the season and the price is reasonable with the draw on side Southport DNB 2/1 Bet365 Unfashionable Gateshead have surprised many with their form this season but they did lose 4-1 at Luton on Saturday and they are starting to slide down the league table. Southport are in blinding form at present, including some fine performances away from home, so the 2/1 DNB is worth taking The 4/5 (gen) about Tamworth might be a bit marginal for some but they're strong at home and Hayes & Yeading are poor away so I'll be backing the home side I'm also interested in peoples thoughts on the Luton v Wrexham game considering available prices, anyone got a view?

[bartonbank]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

I'm also interested in peoples thoughts on the Luton v Wrexham game considering availble prices, anyone got a view?

Yep....not a game to bet on!! In reality you would say that we are the value at over 2's, with the best away form of the league and the tightest defence, against a Luton side who are the best side at home and have scored the most (albeit only one more than us) I would stick with your other picks mate! :ok

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

The Newport County v Kettering game interests me. We've yet to see much progress for Newport under their new manager and they are still hugely inconsistent - not many would have thought that a team that could win 4-1 away at Fleetwood would then lose at home to Tamworth. Kettering won away at FGR on Saturday and whilst it's probably a big call for them to win two games on the spin awy from home I feel that the away side are worth following. 5/2 available for Ketting to win but I'm taking 6/4 Kettering DNB with Hills :hope

Edinburgh actually said that Saturday's performance was the best since he took over which is surprising given what they did on Tuesday. Sounds like Kettering didnt threaten FGR to much but got the goal when a chance came along and managed to see it out fairly comfortably as FGR didnt threaten much either.

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Alfreton v Fleetwood

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[shoesize14]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Bath v Stockport Fancy the overs on this one. Bath's so called defense have already let in 29 goals this season. In the last two games they let in seven goals but managed to score six goals! Stockports defense is not a lot better leeching eight goals in the last two games so a bit surprised to see betfair offering 1.28 on +1.5 goals - looks good value to me.

[FCP]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Event	Lincoln - Mansfield
Selection	Over 2,5
Strength	10/10
Date	17/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90
Reasoning	Mansfield is the sixth placed and winning this game they can climb three places. they could be fighting for the second place now if they didn't lost the last game against Southport, 1-3 at home. Big surprise. Now they have to recover the lost points and also perform great to clean their image. Lincoln is the 21th placed and they need points with urgency to get out of the dangerous zone. Looking to the recent clashes between the two teams... Lincoln - Mansfield 1-2 Mansfield - Lincoln 1-3 ..to the recent games of Lincoln... Lincoln - Fleetwood 1-3 Alfreton - Lincoln 1-3 Tamworth - Lincoln 4-0 and to the recent games of Mansfield... Mansfield - Southport 1-3 Mansfield - Grimsby 2-1 Forest Green - Mansfield 1-1 Wrexham - Mansfield 1-3 Mansfield - Kidderminster 0-3 ...and looking to the urgency of points for both teams, i think a Over 2,5 goals is a good bet here.

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Bath v Stockport Fancy the overs on this one. Bath's so called defense have already let in 29 goals this season. In the last two games they let in seven goals but managed to score six goals! Stockports defense is not a lot better leeching eight goals in the last two games so a bit surprised to see betfair offering 1.28 on +1.5 goals - looks good value to me.

Id imagine its more due to the fact neither team are exactly prolific in front of goal although Bath have certainly improved on that recently

[Belly77]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 From what I saw of Alferton on Saturday I'm going to pile into the 1.8 on Fleetwood.

[Savage10]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Gateshead v Southport 19:45 Both clubs both going well at present, Gateshead currently sit in 5th position and in a playoff place and Southport in 7th just 2 points a drift of Gateshead. In all competitions between the two sides there has been 10 meetings, Gateshead winning 6 of those, Southport only the 1 win and 3 of those been draws. Southport are a weird outfit, since there 4-0 home defeat to newly promoted Braintree they have won 4 of there last five which include 3 away wins against decent teams such as Darlington (3-0) Newport (3-0) & Mansfield (3-1) and have also won there last 5 away from home, so they are clearly good travellers this season compared to last when they were the worst picking up 13 pts from a possible 69 scoring only 14 goals. Gateshead got there season off to a flyer when they won there first 6 out of 7 matches, but since then they have only won 3 from the previous 9 games losing 4 and drawing the other two, saying that 3 of the defeats were against 3 teams that will be fighting it out at the top of the table come the end of the season in Fleetwood (1-3) Wrexham (1-4) & most recently Luton (5-1). I cant see either of these teams challeging the bigger boys at the top and feel the likes of Mansfield, Darlington & Kidderminster will improve past them but i think they would both settle for a mid table finish and stay clear of trouble. Gateshead have scored at least once in 13 of there last 15 home games which shows they have scored in 87% of those. Southport have scored at least once in 12 of there last 15 away games which shows they have scored in 80% of those. Verdict: I believe there will be a goalfest at Neilson Road tonight and therefore i will be having a dabble on Both teams to score and invest in the Overs market. :D BOTH TO SCORE - 5 PTS OVER 2.5 GOALS - 3 PTS OVER 3.5 GOALS - 2 PTS

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 I haven't have much time to mull over the spreads but there are a couple of highly speculative player goal minute quotes that appeal. He may not start, but if he does it could as part of a Southport front two, and if that's the case Vinny Mukendi will be a bit of value at 10 to buy. Gateshead are starting to look a bit shaky in central areas. I also like the look at Sam Foley, at 15 to buy with Sporting. Newport have definitely improved, with Foley definitely stepping up his game a notch. I am not completely convinced by Kettering's defence and I think he'll be in amongst it tonight. Barrow have been monumentally poor on their travels, and I'm happy to sell the time of the 2nd Darlington goal at 72 with Sporting, even if the Hatch/Walshaw forward line isn't one that gets centre-backs quaking in their boots.

[Yak]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 This league is still as unpredictable as it was when we were in it! A rushed write-up, but a couple of plays for me tonight. I like the look of Tamworth @ Evens (Skybet) at home to Hayes & Yeading. Admittedly, at the start of the season I massively underrated Hayes & Yeading, they have combined experience with youth pretty well, and the new manager seems to be chugging along nicely. However, their away form isn't great and I always look out for part-time teams when there is a Saturday-Tuesday schedule, I've heard their manager saying it is a concern - and he thinks a number of players, such as Tom Collins, will struggle in terms of fitness levels. I think Hayes & Yeading will find it difficult tonight at the Lamb Ground providing the likes of St Aimie, Christie are on form. I like Tamworth's manager, Marcus Law - he seems to know how to build winning teams, although I have noticed his teams have an uncanny knack of winning a few, then losing a few, then winning a few etc. But I'm more than happy to take them at Evens, especially after their impressive display at home last time out. Secondly, I'll take the 11/4 Coral are offering about Southport. Southport have built a neat little squad this year, with manager Liam Watson utilising the loan system (and his contacts at Luton) very well. I really like the two Luton players, in particular Poku, who I've seen before and think he should be playing regularly for his parent club to be honest. It's no coincidence that Southport's upturn in form has come since he joined the club - a very hardworking player that has been dominant in his displays over the last two months. Another loan signing, which Ships has highlighted above, Vinny Mukendi is another player that I believe should be playing regularly for his parent club - you wouldn't think he was 19 when watching him play. The perfect link-up player for the likes of Gray and Whalley, and that has been key in their recent success. Gateshead are a funny team at the moment, and Southport haven't had much success at Gateshead over the last few years, but this bet lies on the value of Southport, and 11/4 is too big in my opinion. Oh and a few E/W (Each-way bets on 9 places at 1/3 odds) first goalscorer bets just for a bit of fun: E/W Godfrey Poku (Southport) to score first (28/1) E/W Vinny Mukendi (Southport) to score first (7/1) E/W Jonathan Sanchez-Munoz (Darlington) to score first (20/1) E/W Adam Cunnington (Kettering) to score first (7/1) E/W Michael West (Ebbsfleet) to score first (8/1) E/W Lindon Meikle (Mansfield) to score first (9/1) E/W James Dance (Luton) to score first (18/1)

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Typical after saying how good he he is Exodus goes and scores an own goal.

[Yak]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 I think pride of place is currently going to me Addpea! Gateshead 2-0 Southport Tamworth 0-1 Hayes & Yeading Sanchez-Munoz substituted after 17 minutes with an injury. Cunnington sent-off just before half-time. Woeful predictions!

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

I think pride of place is currently going to me Addpea! Gateshead 2-0 Southport Tamworth 0-1 Hayes & Yeading Sanchez-Munoz substituted after 17 minutes with an injury. Cunnington sent-off just before half-time. Woeful predictions!

How things change lol. Looking at the stats Southport were all over Gateshead and with them Wrexham and Fleetwood its been another decent night for me. I seem to be much better at finding the bigger prices this season in the BSP than the shorter ones.

[kevshat]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Top work in here guys :clap:clap. Very profitable thread all round :clap

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Top work in here guys :clap:clap. Very profitable thread all round :clap

Yes its good to see especially as Tuesday nights have proven to be pretty tough so far this season.

[kevshat]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Mate every day has been a struggle in this league for me this season :lol. In the last two seasons I've got something of an idea or a grip on it but I just can't get anything going this season which is why I'm not prepared to bankrupt anyone with my picks :lol. It's more up and down than the Championship this season :lol. Total fair play to anyone who has worked this division out this season.

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Mate every day has been a struggle in this league for me this season :lol. In the last two seasons I've got something of an idea or a grip on it but I just can't get anything going this season which is why I'm not prepared to bankrupt anyone with my picks :lol. It's more up and down than the Championship this season :lol. Total fair play to anyone who has worked this division out this season.

Like I said above if I choose a short price tip they dont win yet Ive lost count of the winners Ive had that have been over 2/1 in the league this season. Im not quite saw how Im managing to find them as like you say the results have been all over the place. What I will say is though that the bookies still cant price the games up right. Wrexham and Southport are two cases tonight where the prices were totally wrong especially Southport who are one of the form teams in the league right now and yet were still 100/30 to win a game, thats just crazy.

[kevshat]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Yep absolutely. I guess reputation is a lot of it but whenever I oppose a team with the reputation they seem to play to their reputation :lol. The Southport spot was excellent. I don't tend to get involved in hyped up games anyway so I wouldn't have touched Luton/Wrexham even if I was a neutral because all too often they just seem to completely disappoint and teams play not to lose rather than play how they usually do. Luckily (not for me :()that didn't happen tonight so you was right :clap.

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Yep absolutely. I guess reputation is a lot of it but whenever I oppose a team with the reputation they seem to play to their reputation :lol. The Southport spot was excellent. I don't tend to get involved in hyped up games anyway so I wouldn't have touched Luton/Wrexham even if I was a neutral because all too often they just seem to completely disappoint and teams play not to lose rather than play how they usually do. Luckily (not for me :()that didn't happen tonight so you was right :clap.

I agree with you about the hyped games but when the price is that far out I have to get involved as the price did not match the chance Wrexham had this evening. Even you have to admit Wrexham were never 100/30 shots tonight regardless of what the result turned out to be? As for Southport they were only playing Gateshead tonight so I didnt get the price as they are hardly one of the so called big sides in the league. It seems the bookies were much quicker to react when Gateshead were in good form and shortened their match prices accordingly and yet it seems just because Southport havent been top they have totally ignored what they are actually doing on the pitch. Alan Alger tipped up Gateshead in his preview tonight which again seemed strange to me as I just dont get how anyone could argue they were value tonight, but given he also took Southport on with Newport the other week perhaps he is proof as to why the bookies keep making them these huge prices.

[kevshat]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Yep it did look a big price. I wouldn't have taken it because I didn't think they would win but I based that thought as much on the 3 meetings at the end of last season as anything. That and the two 5-1's in a row at our place but it was just another match I got totally wrong :lol. Southport are another team in question for me too. I think it was Barrow I took them against not long after Southport they played us. I know our two are buzzing about how much they are enjoying it there. Anyway they didn't win that game and seem to have won every game since :lol.

[Darran]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Yep it did look a big price. I wouldn't have taken it because I didn't think they would win but I based that thought as much on the 3 meetings at the end of last season as anything. That and the two 5-1's in a row at our place but it was just another match I got totally wrong :lol. Southport are another team in question for me too. I think it was Barrow I took them against not long after Southport they played us. I know our two are buzzing about how much they are enjoying it there. Anyway they didn't win that game and seem to have won every game since :lol.

As I said in my preview it wasnt like I thought Wrexham were certs tonight but sometimes it pays off to bet based on value more than anything becuase you dont have to be right as often to get a profit. I think it would have been pretty hard for Wrexham to have played as badly as they did in the 1st play-off game again. I remember you tipping them up that day and apart from the 4-0 loss to Braintree I think your right. Its just how funny betting on football can be. Ive backed Altrincham twice this season, theyve lost both times and then the next game on both occasions theyve won 6-1!

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 There were plenty of people on here cheering Southport's late winner last night, but I was among the loudest, as Vinny Mukendi's goal locked in 79 points profit on the spread trade. Just as well as the Darlo and Sam Foley trades lost 33 points, but overall a very good night indeed. Some superb stuff on here last night - HotpotKid on Southport and Tamworth, addpea on Southport, Wrexham and Fleetwood handicap, shoesize on +1.5 on Bath/Stockport, Belly on Fleetwood, Savage10 on +2.5, +3.5 and both to score on Gateshead/Southport, and Yak on Tamworth and Southport - there will be some bookies finding it very hard to sit down this morning!

[Belly77]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18 Was a top night last night, thank you to all involved. I took Tamworth of the back of reading the write ups on here so thank you. Didn't have the balls to take Southport but I wish I had. My only losing bet was FGR 94 minute winner to rob me of a draw. Top work punterslounge :clap

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Blue Square BET Premier » Oct 18

Was a top night last night, thank you to all involved. Top work punterslounge :clap

I'll second that, cheers everyone. It's my first season at punting in the top three tiers of non league and it's going OK so far, and I'm over 30 points in front - only to small stakes mind.