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Tennis 09-16 October

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Asia selections for Thursday Dolgopolov -2.5 vs Nishikori. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (5/10) The odds are dropping and it will be -3 games sooner rather than later. Nishikori was of the tournament against Haase and then also against Tsonga but managed to come back. He played another tough 3-setter on Thursday and will be more tired for sure. Besided Dog has got better serve and that is a huge pluss for the Ukranian. Hard to guess what sort of plan he'll have - to win in straight sets or give one set away. Nevertheless expect him to win this match and cover the handicap as well. Scheepers +5.5 vs Stosur. 1.76 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Scheepers in form of her life and it's hard to see her being crushed here, especially when Stosur is playing terrible tennis after her success in New York. She dropped a set against Lertcheewakarn which is hard to understand. Scheepers a bit of a struggle against Shvedova but she won and that's the main thing. I don't think it will be bigger margin than 6-4, 6-3 for Stosur if she wins at all. Cetkovska > Zheng. 1.87 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Huge disadvantage for Zheng is the fact that she can not serve. She will move Cetkovska around and prolly will win the majority of long rallies but it's hard to imagine her being able to outhit Cetkovska. She can serve really well and will go after Zheng's serve. Have to back the Czech at odds like this. Morita +5.5 vs Bartoli. 1.80 @ Bwin (4/10) Overs is another good option in this one as all five matches they have contested have gone overs. The one that did not was a retirement for Morita. She's playing at home, so will have all the support and will play her best as she has done in the opening two rounds. Bartoli can be a mess sometimes and the stats don't lie, she has struggled against Morita big time, even lost a set 0-6 last week in Tokyo.

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October F. Mayer to beat F. Lopez @pinnacle 1.80 (6/10) Have to go with the german in this match. He defeated very strong players such as Nalbandian and Nadal in straight sets and is playing the best tennis he can show. I know Mayer is capable of playing the best tennis of his life and the next day he might look like the worst tennis player but that won´t happen IMO. First cause this is a chance to go deep into a very important event facing an accesible opponent (a M1000/ F. Lopez) and second because he is playing very focused last couple of days. On the other hand, Lopez is as irregular as Mayer can be, but being both players in good form, i see the german taking the match. The only way i can see the spaniard winning is playing his best tennis while Mayer being in a bad day. Hope that doesn´t happen. :hope

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Sport Tennis Event Roddick - Ferrer Selection Roddick +2 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 14/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 Reasoning I don't understand why Ferrer is favourite here. At US Open too peaoples playing really confident on the Ferrer win, but Roddick take win in 4 sets. Roddick in first two matches against Lu and Dimitrov not looked great, but yesterday against Almagro show very classy tennis, lost only 8 balls on the serve. Great stuff. Ferrer have big troubles against big server Raonic, yesterday played against Ferrero and take very lucky win in three sets, saved 3 match points. If Roddick keep serve level can make win here. Sport Tennis Event Scheepers - Stosur Selection Scheepers +5.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 14/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.85 Reasoning I see good chances for Scheepers here. Chanelle leading 1-0 in h2h before this game. Both players are seed, Stosur with number one, Scheepers with 7. Stosur in first round concended set against poor Lertcheewakarn. Yesterday beat Doi without problems, but Doi been awful. Scheepers in first round not give any chances for Kudryavtseva, yesterday beat in three close sets in-form Shvedova. Not easy match for Samantha Sport Tennis Event Tanasugarn - Kerber Selection Tanasugarn +5.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 14/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.85 Reasoning For me Tanasugarn can make good result in this match. Osaka city this is Tanasugarn place, for sure. Tamarine in last season here take title and really want defend this points, very imporant for her ranking. In first two matches Tanasugarn played very well - beat TOP50 McHale in two sets and in two sets beat Johansson. Kerber of course is favourite of this match, US Open SFinalist from this year, but in first two rounds played against poor opponent, both out of TOP 140. First hard opponent, I see problems. Sport Tennis Event Lopez - Mayer Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 14/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 Reasoning For me three sets are possible here. Lopez of course this is big server and can hold many serve games in this match, no doubts in this. Lopez yesterday totally out hit on service games TOP10 player Tomas Berdych and if keep this level I don't see too many break points for Mayer. Mayer is in very hot form, on the serve too. Yesterday made the biggest win in career against Rafael Nadal - won 7:6, 6:3 and not concended a single serve game, not give any break points for Nadal. Mayer in 3 sets

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October 1. Roddick V's Ferrer ML You can make a case for either, so I am going to trade this on what I think is likely to happen: Roddick hits the ground running, takes an early lead, Ferrer (as has happened all week) mounts a come back (Roddick may fade in the 2nd set also), whether Ferrer can pull this out the bag from 0-1 I honestly know know. Could be 2-0 Roddick or 2-1 Ferrer. Edit: Closed posision after Ferrer confidently held his first service game, he looks more up for this, will sit out for now.

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Some WTA stuff today LINZ: Safarova vs Cirstea over 21.5 games @evens local bookie Safarova is considered favourite in this match. She is good on indoor hard courts, she is lefty and therefore tough to play against, and is higher ranked than the Roumanian. However, Sorana did show this week that she means it despite being a qualifiaer. She did beat favourites like the local Tamira Paszek, and in round two she sent packing Pavlyuchenkova, which is really good result, though Pavly helped a lot. Safarova is known to be able to hang herself upon any rope she finds near, but she did look fine in previous two rounds, offered only two breakpoints in two matches (one saved), so I hope she will not just fold like Tamira Paszek did. In no case this will be an easy match for Lucie. H2H is 1:1, but both matches come from 2008, so it is not really relevant. I expect tight match here. GL :hope

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Event Murray A. - Nishikori K. Selection +6.5 Nishikori K. (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 15/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price 10bet @ 1.60 Reasoning In Shanghai Masters series semifinal Andy will have a clash with Japanese star Kei Nishikori.Am taking a handy on Kei because Andy is not so impressing on this tournament the tempo has been to high for him what is evident in his game and on the other side on fire Nishikori is showing and proving his best trough this tournament.He pulled out major wins over players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Robin Haase and most recently Alexandr Dolgopolov and i believe he can provide good resistance to Andy.

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Just watching LINZ Kvitova-Jankovic, and I keep wondering how such a crap like Kvitova coud have won ANY tournament at all, let alone the Wimbledon :loon edit: Kvitova 46 64 63. A crap vs crap type of match. Cibulkova +hcp tomorrow should be the play

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Event Phau B.- Karlovic I. Selection Phau Bjorn Strength 5/10 Date 15/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 3.25 Reasoning Well i believe that Bjorn Phau can provide a major counterattack or should i say counterwork to Ivo Karlovic.Karlovic is a big serving guy and he is not that good in game.He wasted a lot of energy durning the last/this month he won Sacramento challenger and now he is in semifinals here after he had struggled over Martin yesterday.Phau looks good,his fresh full of energy hungry for victories.Unlike Karlovic he is very quick player i could say that quickness as his main strength along with crosscourt forehand and backhand down line.This quickness could beparticularly problematic to Ivo.Am giving a shot on Bjorn.

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Shanghai final Ferrer vs Murray over 20.5 games @evens local bookie OK, I was shocked seeing Ferrer ML around 5.00 in a couple of books. The fact is that Murray always defeats Ferrer on hard and Ferrer beats Murray on clay. They played last week in Tokyo SF, and Murray won 62 63. Me too I expect Murray to win this one, but 20.5 games? This line is probably calculated from the odds, but IMO this is a mistake. First - the court in Shanghai is slower than the one in Tokyo. And second - If you look at Murray's path, he had it all too easy. The only seeded player he had to beat was Stan Wawrinka, and Andy dropped a set with him. The rest are Ebden, Tursunov, Nishikori ... OMG! Ferrer had it much harder, had to beat couple of top quality players, let's begin with Andy Roddick to name a few :-) The bottom line is - I really do not expect the final to be over in two straight sets (straight in the sense of not exceeding 6 games for the winner). 20.5 games is common, but quite interestingly, Pinnacle did not publish total games line yet. All in all, 20.5 seems tooo loooow for this match. GL :hope

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October

Shanghai final Ferrer vs Murray over 20.5 games @evens local bookie WIN
Sloppy performance from David, especially his 1st serve was dreadful, but it was good enough for the over in the end. finishing the week by LINZ: Cibulkova to bt Kvitova @3.58 Pinnacle small stake As I wrote yesterday, Kvitova was really lucky to get past Jankovic. In the first set she seemed to be trained on the soccer stadium - her shots invariably ended haf or more meters wide, and her tactic was just hit the ball with closed eyes and wait where it lands. Her shots became more precise in the 3rd set, and Jankovic helped a bit, too, therefore we have her in the final now. Dominika did show quite nice performance against Safarova in the semi. 70% 1st serve in, from that 84% won, this can be considered good service. Safarova is lefty as Kvitova, so the semi might have served as preparation for today's match. H2H is 3-0 for Petra, but all matches were played in the 1st half of 2011, that is in the time when Petra was unstoppable and rolling. After Wimbledon her form dropped alot, and this is the first tournament after long time where she reached final. If Dominika manages to repeat her performance against Safarova, and if Petra's huge strokes will lack accuracy, this can go through. Alternatively, you can play +hcp which is 4.5 games. GL :hope

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October

Shanghai final Ferrer vs Murray over 20.5 games @evens local bookie OK, I was shocked seeing Ferrer ML around 5.00 in a couple of books. The fact is that Murray always defeats Ferrer on hard and Ferrer beats Murray on clay. They played last week in Tokyo SF, and Murray won 62 63. Me too I expect Murray to win this one, but 20.5 games? This line is probably calculated from the odds, but IMO this is a mistake. First - the court in Shanghai is slower than the one in Tokyo. And second - If you look at Murray's path, he had it all too easy. The only seeded player he had to beat was Stan Wawrinka, and Andy dropped a set with him. The rest are Ebden, Tursunov, Nishikori ... OMG! Ferrer had it much harder, had to beat couple of top quality players, let's begin with Andy Roddick to name a few :-) The bottom line is - I really do not expect the final to be over in two straight sets (straight in the sense of not exceeding 6 games for the winner). 20.5 games is common, but quite interestingly, Pinnacle did not publish total games line yet. All in all, 20.5 seems tooo loooow for this match. GL :hope
Great job you made here, and on the rest of that tournament.

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October

LINZ: Cibulkova to bt Kvitova @3.58 Pinnacle small stake LOSS
Kvitova made her usual number of unforced, but Cibulkova was an utter joke. 46% 1st serve in, sloppy forehand, unbelievable. My lame grandmother would have taken a set off her today :puke

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Re: Tennis 09-16 October Event Querrey S.- Karlovic I. Selection Querrey S. Strength 10/10 Date 16/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 2.00 Reasoning I will bet on Sam because he is doing fantastic job at this tournament,he will also try to look to revange the defeat in SF that happened just week ago 7-66, 3-6, 6-4 at Sacramento challenger which was won by Ivo.As i said before Karlo wasted alot durnig these period this is his second finals in a row but i think that Sam is in better condition,his also a big serving guy but he can be mutch better in game.I will give a shot on Querrey.

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