Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

[Jase82]

	Tuesday 18 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	CSKA Moscow v Trabzonspor (17:00 BST)	1.65	3.66	5.71	105.44 %
	Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax (19:45 BST)	2.79	3.4	2.46	105.74 %
	FC Basel v Benfica (19:45 BST)	3.39	3.4	2.25	103.35 %
	Lille OSC v Internazionale (19:45 BST)	2.45	3.28	3	104.64 %
	Manchester City v Villarreal (19:45 BST)	1.35	5	8.27	105.64 %
	Napoli v FC Bayern München (19:45 BST)	3.8	3.4	2.1	103.35 %
	Otelul Galati v Manchester United (19:45 BST)	13.4	7	1.19	105.49 %
	Real Madrid v Olympique Lyonnais (19:45 BST)	1.25	6	11	105.73 %

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Real Madrid beat Lyon only once in their last 10 games against them so I can't understand why they are so strong favourites @ 1.25.

[Wittek]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October AJAX DNB 1,90 BENFICA -0,25 1,90 e over 2,5 a 1,83 SBOBET I like all of the Ajax that despite the defeat in Madrid against Lyon at home had made the game especially in the second half when the Lyon spent a couple of times the view of Zagreb centrocampo.Dinamo in Lyon is unwatchable, inexperienced team in the unripe these games never entered into the game in France have suffered a lot of casa.Ajax bosses in these games will bring out all his international experience, in short, the dnb seems well played, also because for the lancers this race is almost decisive. Benfica is strong this year, Romans made ​​the game a little bit threatening in the final but have always had the race in hand, with Oteleul Basel have won only at home the final penalty kick in a lot of suffering, the equal of Manchester I do not count for anything the British after they stopped playing 2-0, game over also seen attacking football played by two teams.

[nicko]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October So far took some early ones with 5 units each : Over 2,5 Goals @ 1,775 in Basel, with 2 clearly attacking teams Goal/Goal in Lille @ 1,83, as I like the French forwards and I can't see Inter keeping a clean sheet, and I can't see them sitting back for a 0-0 draw. Goal/Goal in Madrid @ 2,00 - looking at the teams that scored this season at Bernabeu, and above all, seeing how often Real got exposed at home with Ajax, I see good price at evens with the French team scoring at least one. All three IMO will drop closer to the games, so I took them far earlier than I usually do...

[nicko]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Just took Napoli @ 1,80 on the current Asian Line + 0,5AH. Another price I expect to go down a bit, as I see the vast majority of Joe Public going for Bayern or at least for DNB in accumulators, excited by the Munich steady play this year. With all respect to Bayern, and not ruling out at all a possible win, I still think the Italians will approach this game carefully, calculating, and a point each will not be the end of the world for either side. Are Naples capable of taking at least a point from Munich - I think yes, with all spaces well-covered and a small battle in midfield. Tactically the Italians are very good, they are good at frustrating opponents as well...In any case 1,80 for a Home Win or Draw looks better to me than 2,00 for a Bayern win...

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Manchester Double Man.City are playing really well at the moment especially at home and they seem to score goals just for fun. Villarreal however are not doing so well at the moment and managed only 2 wins in their last 10 games. One against OB Odense and against Mallorca (both home wins). Man.City are unbeaten in 13 home games in Europe while Villarreal failed to score a goal in their last 4 trips to England. Against Liverpool Sir Alex rested Nani, Rooney and Jernandez which means he is focused on the 2 upcoming games against Otelul and Man.City. After managing only 2 points in their first games in Champions League I don't think Sir Alex will rotate players again and I expect full strength squad against Otelul. I can see United winning this one easily and expect their strikers to have a good practise before Manchester derby. Man.City -1 AH & Man.United -1 AH @ 1.95 (5 units) Bet365

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Napoli - B.Munich Napoli started their Champions League campaign very good by taking a point from Man.City and then beating Villarreal at home. Now they look like real contenders to qualify from this group. The Italians have a good home record and they have not lost in 9 home games in European competitions, keeping clean sheet in the last 6. B.Munich have a mixed record against Italian sides. They managed a win against Villarreal even though they did not have good record against Spanish sides. However, Villarreal is not playing well at the moment compared to Napoli so backing Italians not to lose in a double is a good option. _____________________________ Basel - Benfica Both teams are playing open and attacking football and I can see each side scoring at least 1 goal. Since the odds on Both to Score are a bit short I would advise taking it in a double with something else. Napoli +1 & Basel - Benfica: Both to Score @ 2.71 (3 units) William Hill

[H1]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

So far took some early ones with 5 units each : Over 2,5 Goals @ 1,775 in Basel, with 2 clearly attacking teams Goal/Goal in Lille @ 1,83, as I like the French forwards and I can't see Inter keeping a clean sheet, and I can't see them sitting back for a 0-0 draw. Goal/Goal in Madrid @ 2,00 - looking at the teams that scored this season at Bernabeu, and above all, seeing how often Real got exposed at home with Ajax, I see good price at evens with the French team scoring at least one. All three IMO will drop closer to the games, so I took them far earlier than I usually do...

hi Nicko, with what bookie did you take Madrd - Lyon goal/goal? I see that one priced around 1.8 atm thanks

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

hi Nicko, with what bookie did you take Madrd - Lyon goal/goal? I see that one priced around 1.8 atm thanks

As you can see it from his post he took it 10 days ago, so price might have dropped since then.

[AHughes]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

Manchester Double Man.City are playing really well at the moment especially at home and they seem to score goals just for fun. Villarreal however are not doing so well at the moment and managed only 2 wins in their last 10 games. One against OB Odense and against Mallorca (both home wins). Man.City are unbeaten in 13 home games in Europe while Villarreal failed to score a goal in their last 4 trips to England. Against Liverpool Sir Alex rested Nani, Rooney and Jernandez which means he is focused on the 2 upcoming games against Otelul and Man.City. After managing only 2 points in their first games in Champions League I don't think Sir Alex will rotate players again and I expect full strength squad against Otelul. I can see United winning this one easily and expect their strikers to have a good practise before Manchester derby. Man.City -1 AH & Man.United -1 AH @ 1.95 (5 units) Bet365

Not a chance in hell he done that with the games ahead in mind. The old arch rival in Liverpool, he would of wanted to go in with the 11 he thought was best suited to play.

[AHughes]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Thinking of backing Galati on the handicap, considering Man Utd's dip in form and with no Ferdinand I can see Galati at least scoring

[RedDevil92]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

United are better without Ferdinand these days. He's a liability at the back now his legs have gone. He struggles to keep up with pacey younger players' date=' and that has had a detrimental impact on his decisions and overall positioning.[/quote'] Vidic also returns.Ferdinand is not injured as far as I know.He is getting rested for sunday's clash.I think Ferguson wants his defense to be a wall and therefore look for just 2-3 goals to win this one and then rest for sunday.I played some correct score from 0:2 to 0:5.But my call would be 0:2 or 0:3.They are playing in Bucarest not in Galati as the UEFA has higher demands for stadiums and they can't reach them.The ptch in Bucarest is in a very bad condition.So you do not really want to be injured and that's why you will not give still 100% after you are comfortably in front. GL:ok

[bettings]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

Real Madrid beat Lyon only once in their last 10 games against them so I can't understand why they are so strong favourites @ 1.25.

I agree with that but Real is still Real. the stars are above tradition :puke

[danzku]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Is Napoli missing some players against Bayern? The odds are now @ 4.25 to Napoli at some bookies. Napoli +0.5 is at 1.95. The fact that Bayern won against Villareal doesnt scare so much since Villareal has not been playing good. Then again, Napoli lost at home against Parma on saturday, were their resting some players that match? Anyway, I think 1.95 (+0.5) is verry playable for Napoli.

[HastGill1]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

Not a chance in hell he done that with the games ahead in mind. The old arch rival in Liverpool' date=' he would of wanted to go in with the 11 he thought was best suited to play.[/quote'] Don't really agree, whatever Ferguson said about it being the biggest club game in the world the line-up was pretty second rate and certainly not first choice, Anderson and Nani two of their three best midfielders so far didn't start and both first choice strikers were rested, although I don't think Rooney would have been but for the events of the previous week, they brought on the big boys and secured the point they came for. Winning games is not overly important in October, games won in Feb-April decide the season, United will be in touch at the top still by then and will be making the usual surge after Christmas, Ferguson knows this league better than any other coach. It's United's fault this is now a big game. I didn't think they would have an easy game in Benfica but dropping points at home to Basel is unforgivable, 3-3 for a side like United is a joke result. I expect them to win this game, Nani and Rooney at least will both return and the Romanians are by all accounts a poor side, 9th in the Romanian league after 10 games is nothing to be impressed by and United now need to win this and the return game to make the last two group games ones where they can rotate players, looking unlikely now though after their crap start. 1.3 on -1AH is not worth playing in my eyes, needs to rise to make it appealing.

[danzku]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Zagreb - Ajax Ajax is not in the best form and have been struggling but still they should be a better team than Dinamo Zagreb. After only earning one point from their two first games, Ajax now seems obligated to get something from Zagreb. Zagreb also going for the win since they are still at zero points and this game should be the one from which they should take 3p if they plan to win some match in this group. Still I think Ajax has better quality and they really can't afford to lose this game, and with the odds att 2.04 (dnb) Im definitely going for it. Ajax DNB @ 2.04 Pinnacle

[ultravires]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Napoli can go back to being their usual selves tomorrow night. They are geared much more for organised counter-attacking football. Parma played like that and Napoli weren't comfortable having to find little gaps with short passing. It is a bit worrying just how laboured they looked. I've no doubt that they will raise their game for the Bayern match so there is something in the +0.5 line but I don't see it as an instant take. I would definitely rather be on that than the Bayern win at 2.00.

[H1]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October I also fancy Lyon to score at least once in Madrid When I look at Real's home games this season, I see only one clean sheet - against Ajax, and still Real left a lot of space for Ajax in that game, and were lucky not to concede The other thing - Lyon have quite a good h2h record against Madrid. OK, Real is usually much more careful at the back in CL, but still I see a goal from Lyon, especially that Carvalho is set to be missing. Real - Lyon both to score @1.909 spobet Real to win from behind @7 0.5/10 pts bet365

[ThusPrider]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Napoli vs Bayern Bayern's form has been excellent, but away from home against a solid napoli side odds of just slightly better than evens is too short, therefore I feel the value is on the napoli side. Bayern will be happy with a draw and Napoli will feel they need to get something out of this game to qualify from this difficult group. Napoli +0.5 @ 1.80 is good enough for me to place an early bet, even a draw is a win and I just dont see Bayern winning enough times for them to be backable.

[Alexc]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

Is Napoli missing some players against Bayern? The odds are now @ 4.25 to Napoli at some bookies. Napoli +0.5 is at 1.95. The fact that Bayern won against Villareal doesnt scare so much since Villareal has not been playing good. Then again' date=' Napoli lost at home against Parma on saturday, were their resting some players that match? Anyway, I think 1.95 (+0.5) is verry playable for Napoli.[/quote'] Probably the same reason Man City were so ''high'' against Bayern, because Bayern are a very good side?

[DJ]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Think I will go for my usual lay of the favourite Man City player to score, Lay Rooney to score, lay Man U & lay Man City. Why? The British public heavily back these 4 events and as a consequence the value is usually in the laying rather than the backing of these teams & players.

[DJ]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

Probably the same reason Man City were so ''high'' against Bayern' date=' because Bayern are a very good side?[/quote'] This. Bayern Munich's form has been incredible this season; they have conceded only 1 goal this season in both the CL and the league! I do think Napoli are a good side and see a likely result here as a draw; Bayern will not win every game & so while Bayern are quite rightly favourites, the bet for me would be Napoli +0.5

[Hitch]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Hello everyone! I've been a long time reader on this great forum, but this is my very first post, so here goes... I've recently started using multiple bets more often nowadays since I feel it presents value while being safe at the same time. 6-Multiple bet: (on betfair) 1- Galati v Man Utd (Backing Man Utd @ 1.19) Oţelul Galaţi are CL newbies and they've lost their first CL home game to Benfica while Manchester have yet to record a win in the CL this season and they've rested Rooney, Chicharito and Carrick in midweek and they'll be really motivated to get their first win in the CL this season. 2- Real Madrid v Lyon (Backing Real Madrid @ 1.21)

Real Madrid beat Lyon only once in their last 10 games against them so I can't understand why they are so strong favourites @ 1.25.

While that may be true, the one time they did beat them was the last time they met (3-0 at the Bernabeu) last March. Real Madrid are better now than they have been during the past 10 years while Lyon are definitely not the force they once were. Lyon have failed to score in their only away match in the CL this season (0-0 @ Ajax) and have lost and failed to score during their past 2 away games in Ligue 1 against PSG and Caen. Real Madrid have failed to win only 1 CL home game (against Barcelona) since their 1-1 draw against Lyon in 10/3/10. The other 6 matches ALL resulted in clean sheet wins. They've also won all their home matches this season except for the 2-2 against Barcelona in the Super Cup. 3- Man City v Villarreal (Backing Man City @ 1.31) Manchester City are in great form and will be really motivated to get their first CL win against a significantly weakened Villareal compared to last year. Villareal have lost 3 of the last 4 away games in the CL since 2009. 2-0 against Napoli, 1-0 against Odense BK and 3-0 against Arsenal. They won the first away match out of these 4 against Panathinaikos 1-2. 4- FC Basel v Benfica - Both teams to Score (Backing Yes @ 1.6) The last time Basel failed to score in the CL was 8 matches ago when they lost 0-5 to Barcelona. The last time they failed to score at home in all competitive matches was 21 matches ago. While Benfica have failed to score in 3 of their last 6 CL away matches, the 3 matches that they've scored in were the last 3 matches against Trabzonspor, Twente (last season) and this season's away win against Oţelul Galaţi. They've only failed to score once (1-0 vs Sporting) during their past 25 games in all competitions. 5- Lille v Inter - Both teams to Score (Backing Yes @ 1.8) The first Lille CL home game ended 2-2 against CSKA Moscow and they have failed to score only once during the past 23 home matches in all competitions. They've also only kept 1 clean sheet at home this season out of 5 matches (although it was the last match they've played) As for Inter, we all know of their current crises, but it's more of a defensive crises than a offensive once as they've scored in all 7 away fixtures this season, scoring 14 goals in those. They also haven't kept a single clean sheet in those 7 away matches, and only keeping only 1 clean sheet this season in all matches (0-0 vs Roma). 6- Napoli v B Munich - Over/Under 1.5 Goals (Backing Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28) Both teams are quite offensive teams although Bayern's defense is currently a lot better and so is their form as well, while Napoli can beat most teams in the world on their day, they are quite inconsistent so I'm reluctant to bet on the result of the match so I've decided to stick with goals on this one. Napoli have failed to score once in the past 13 home matches (0-0 vs Fiorentina). Bayern have kept a clean sheet during their past 12 matches but besides beating Man City 2-0 at home in the CL, Napoli will be the hardest team they'll face since their 1-0 loss to Dortmund in August. I just find it almost impossible for Napoli to keep a clean sheet against Bayern and I find it unlikely for Napoli not to score in front of their fans in their 2nd CL home match, and IF they're losing 0-1 near the end of the match, they'll definitely go looking for a goal in numbers, which will open up spaces for Bayern to score their second. Overall odds of 6.99 is good enough for me as I've lost a lot of bets this season and need a win for my betting morale haha :hope:hope:hope

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October :welcome to PL, Hitch. Your first post is good, but I would like to give you some advise and believe many of the punters will support my point of view. "Never chase your loses and bet what you can afford to lose. This way you will enjoy betting instead of having problems :ok Hope to see you around this forum.

[Dylan]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Lille vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Paddy Power (2.5 units) I’ve been on the overs on Inter for a number of weeks now and its serving me well, so will keep on it until Ranieri sorts out the defence. They’ve been made to look poor by even the most average of players in Serie A this season so it doesn’t bode well against the likes of Hazard, Cole, Payet and Sow. Inter themselves still offer a good attacking threat, Sneijder is back and will start I imagine which will be a boost. Lille’s defence doesn’t seem their best area, and they’ve conceded a number of goals at home this season. Also add in the fact that both teams could do with winning this match after stuttering starts I think they’ll both be going for the win and therefore goals are likely. Man City vs Villarreal – Man City -1.5AH 1.98 at Bet365 (2.5 units) Villarreal are really struggling at the moment, with only 2 wins in 11 games all season and neither of these being away from home. I think losing Carzola has been a big loss for them and having watched them against Napoli they just don’t have the same quickness and verve in attack that I’d seen in previous seasons. I therefore think City should be able to stifle them defensively, and they will be hopeful of tricking their way past this defence plenty of times. Even without Aguero, they still have Silva, Nasri and an in form Ballotelli to cause a threat and I wouldn’t but it passed them to bag a few goals tomorrow. :hope

[DJ]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Accumulators are also too often the path to failure. I know bigger wins can be made but a lot less often in my experience. I much prefer singles as usually one let's you down in an accumulator & you often add a bet simply to push odds up which is oft not given the full due consideration. Good luck with your bet but...if...it's always accumulator that you play, perhaps you should consider singles only bets to see if you perform better. Make a big profit in long term and not just off a night where everything that you've backed comes in for once. My exception to this is the small stakes, long odds accumulators ie a £1 bet which is mote for fun and more likely to return a win than a lotto ticket, which would cost the same, as an element of the bet is skill based rather than merely being a random number selection.

[Hitch]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

:welcome to PL' date=' Hitch. Your first post is good, but I would like to give you some advise and believe many of the punters will support my point of view. [b']"Never chase your loses and bet what you can afford to lose. This way you will enjoy betting instead of having problems :ok Hope to see you around this forum.

Thanks :) I'll definitely always keep that in mind.

Accumulators are also too often the path to failure. I know bigger wins can be made but a lot less often in my experience. I much prefer singles as usually one let's you down in an accumulator & you often add a bet simply to push odds up which is oft not given the full due consideration. Good luck with your bet but...if...it's always accumulator that you play, perhaps you should consider singles only bets to see if you perform better. Make a big profit in long term and not just off a night where everything that you've backed comes in for once. My exception to this is the small stakes, long odds accumulators ie a £1 bet which is mote for fun and more likely to return a win than a lotto ticket, which would cost the same, as an element of the bet is skill based rather than merely being a random number selection.

Thanks a lot for your input! This is only my 4th Multiple bet actually. it's pretty new to me and I'm just trying it out these days and I have actually realized how I added a bet or two in order to increase the odds only to find myself losing the whole bet (from those extra bets I added, so I'm trying to be careful this time). I'll still make single bets as well of course, whenever I see value.

[DJ]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Good, didn't intend post to be patronising if it came across that way. I've often placed multiples & now realised the errors of my way. I still lose money on singles but win a LOT more often than I lose.

[Petersson1984]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

Overall odds of 6.99 is good enough for me as I've lost a lot of bets this season and need a win for my betting morale haha :hope:hope:hope

Then stay away from coupons like this. 6 matches and none of them holds any value. Good luck :)

[H1]

Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October Man City first half goals >1.5 @3.8 with Sportingbet I'm backing Man City again, as I think they will get their first CL win tomorrow night Mancini rested Silva Nasri and Dzeko in the weekend win over Aston Villa, and stressed the importance of this game during today's press conference, so the team is fully focused. Villareal are quite poor on the road this season, and are yet to win, either in La Liga or Europe. They have Nilmar missing and Giuseppe Rossi is likely to be the only forward tomorrow. I know it's a long call, but I see Man City attacking from the start and looking to secure the victory as early as possible, having the weekend Manchester derby in mind. Villareal is a solid side, but I think Mancini's players will have too much for them. I'll also put small stakes on Man City to win to nil @2.05 (1 point) and Man City over 3.5 team golas @4.75 with Sportingbet (2 pts)