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Atko

Tennis - 3-9 October

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Nothing really catching the eye for me on the men's side of things tomorrow. A lot of the minus handicaps seem large but, at the same, I wouldn't be rushing to get on the plusses either!

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Three for me to kick off the week/month. (4/10) Rafael Nadal to win ATP Tokyo @ 2.50 with Gamebookers Who else, really? The surface might not be his best, but he is still a class above everyone else in the draw except Andy Murray. And the Scot is coming off a win in Bangkok and there are bigger tournaments coming up, so perhaps he is not going to try so much. Anyway, Rafa won't be at 2.50 against Murray in the final and I do not see him losing before that. (3/10) Ryan Harrison Over 8 games (against Mardy Fish) @ 1.93 with Pinnacle This line does not seem right. Mardy Fish has not played since the US Open, while Harrison has some match practice. Furthermore, this surface is actually pretty quick and Fish is not the biggest star on return. Harrison might even take a set here, but 8 games should be covered even without that. (3/10) Tamira Paszek to beat Petra Cetkovska @ 1.96 with Pinnacle Wrong odds imo. Petra Cetkovska was lucky last round, while Paszek produced a solid performance and won with a lot to spare. Form might tell otherwise, but I do not see the Czech being the favourite here and I want to play this at these odds. Cetkovska can throw in far too many poor errors.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Beijing double Roddick (vs Anderson) x Kohlschreiber (vs Robredo) @ 2.08 local bookie Andy Roddick is winner from 2008. In 2009 he lost in R1 against Kubot and last year he did not play this tournament. H2H against Kevin is 2-0, both matches were played this year, and though Kevin is big serving guy like Roddick, Andy is more complete player. As to Robredo, he once again is coming to a tournament to try his luck after serious injury earlier this year. However, he is more a claycourt player than anything else, and though Kohli is not the absolute top world clas, his play is more suited to hard and should be able to defeat the injured claycourter.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October

(3/10) Ryan Harrison Over 8 games (against Mardy Fish) @ 1.93 with Pinnacle This line does not seem right. Mardy Fish has not played since the US Open, while Harrison has some match practice. Furthermore, this surface is actually pretty quick and Fish is not the biggest star on return. Harrison might even take a set here, but 8 games should be covered even without that. (3/10) Tamira Paszek to beat Petra Cetkovska @ 1.96 with Pinnacle Wrong odds imo. Petra Cetkovska was lucky last round, while Paszek produced a solid performance and won with a lot to spare. Form might tell otherwise, but I do not see the Czech being the favourite here and I want to play this at these odds. Cetkovska can throw in far too many poor errors.
Good couple of calls here CP :clap

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Thanks guys. One for now. (3/10) Kaia Kanepi to beat Sabine Lisicki @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes This needs to be taken now with a one-ball bookie. Sabine Lisicki has posted on her FB that she is sick and that she had to spend some time in hospital. She also withdrew from the doubles, her status for tomorrow is in doubt, but I am willing to stick my head out for this. Kanepi in solid form from Tokyo, so this will be easy for her if Lisicki is not alright.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October I'll enter the fray this week with three selections, all with small stakes ... - Lukasz Kubot +3 games AH (v Ernests Gulbis) @ 2.05 - 3pts staked with Pinnacle It's very hard to make a case for Gulbis at the moment. Just when he appears to be finding some form, he totally collapses. I fear the same scenario in this match. The Latvian's mental fragility is no secret these days. He doesn't concentrate or train hard enough and although new coach Guillermo Canas has eked some improvement out of him, he still loses to players he shouldn't do. Last week it was Simone Bolelli, at the US Open it was Gilles Muller. He appears to struggle as favourite, and the expectations that come with it. Kubot's not a world-beater but he's solid enough and comes out with a tricky serve-volley gameplan that can get under opponent's skin. He's proved he can play on a number of surfaces and got a win under his belt last week after beating Lukas Rosol. He was sidelined by injury after Wimbledon but he will be approaching peak fitness now. This match will also be played in the morning, and Gulbis is notorious for not enjoying an early start. He tends to play his best tennis when against bigger names, and the grittiness and unorthodox nature of the Pole could upset him. Certainly, I wouldn't give Kubot such a big handicap considering Gulbis' nature. I feel it's definitely worth a small stake. - Mikhail Youzhny (v Nicolas Almagro) @ 1.826 - 3pts staked with Pinnacle I always feel this is the right time of year to fade Almagro. He does all the hard work earlier in the season on the red brick. This campaign has been no exception, with almost half a dozen clay titles and plenty of cash to boot. The reason for that is (a) he's good on clay and (b) not nearly as effective on other surfaces. That fact is even more pertinent against decent opponents. Youzhny is exactly that, an opponet actually ranked a little lower than his true ability, and I reckon the Russian can win this match. Besides the aforementioned surface issue, Almagro has struggled with Youzhny in the past. The H2H is 3-0 in the Russian's favour, the most recent success coming at Wimbledon this year. He's also beaten him on clay and most famously in 2008, when the crazed Soviet smashed his racket over his head to knock some sense back into himself, when he was on the brink of losing to him at Indian Wells (take a peek at this:

). That sort of incident won't be forgotten and should play on Almagro's mind. Youzhny got an epic win over Thomaz Bellucci in the Davis Cup a few weeks ago and does relish playing fighters on this sort of court. It may be a tough one for him but Almagro is not comfortable on a hard court at this time of year. He demonstrated this in Kuala Lumpur last week; he was taken to two tie-breaks by Albert Ramos and lost to Kei Nishikori, both technically inferior players. This is a very winnable match for Youzhny. I'd have him a lot shorter, so I'm willing to make a play on him. - Juan Carlos Ferrero -2.5 games (v Thomaz Bellucci) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle - 3pts staked with Pinnacle Ferrero's main crux of the year was wrecked by a hip injury, but the mosquito was back to form at the US Open, where he made the last 16 and played a couple of blinders, one being against Gael Monfils. He is still a very adriot player on his day. What was evident in New York is that his ability to construct a rally is still clearly evident. He doesn't play with a lot of power but serves intelligently and builds points up with variation and angles. He's proven on all surfaces so the transition to conditions in Tokyo should not be a problem for him. I fear for Bellucci in this one because I still don't think he's mature enough to beat players like Ferrero on quicker surfaces. On clay, his best surface, he plays very well, but his recent form is alarming. He was in total control against Dudi Sela at the US Open and then totally collapsed, and his confidence will have been dented further by his defeat to Youzhny (14-12 in the 5th set) on Davis Cup duty. He is not a man on form. He did beat Ferrero back in 2009 but that was on clay and in Brazil, the perfect combination for Bellucci backers. Out of his comfort zone, his strokes become very erratic, and his serve dissolves. With the wily Ferrero showing glimpses of bygone years, I make him a justified favourite and a man who should clinch this with the handicap to spare.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Roddick recovery play Someone just had to come with this, so why not me: John Isner vs Ivan Ljubicic over 23.5 games @evens local bookie Both big serving guys, both defending semifinal points from last year. This is the first Big John appearance since US Open 5 weeks ago, while Ivan had a final appearance two weeks ago in Metz, France. This is their first mutual match and it is certainly going to be boooring. Neither one loves to play long rallies and both are relying oh their huge serve. Big John is slight favourite, still I can hardly imagine other result than at least two tie-breaks. Maria Kirilenko vs Samantha Stosur over 21.5 games @evens local bookie They both met 7 times (H2H 4-3 for Stosur) and 4 times it was three setter, once a retirement and twice an easy win in two sets (one each). They met last week in Tokyo, Makiri won 62 46 64. Samantha seems to be little bit out of shape after her big win at US Open. Still she is favourite in this match, but Makiri is certainly not going to collapse in two easy sets. GL :hope

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Vinci -4 vs Razzano. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Playing 4th match in 5 days will be really hard for Razzano. She was involved in qualifying matches (2) as well and will be more tired comparing to Vinci who recorded an easy win against Rebbeca Marino on Sunday. This will be back to back matches situation for Razzano and with Vinci loving to move her opponents around the court I can see really tough afternoon for Razzano. Stats won't help either. She has lost all three matches against Vinci and has not managed to take even a set off the Italian. 4 games handicap has been covered in all 3 meetings, the last of those was in Barcelona this year. Vinci won 6-4, 6-1. Martinez Sanchez > Pavlyuchenkova. 2.15 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Like the match-up here. Sanchez is on a six match winning streak having won in Seoul couple weeks back. My biggest issue with Pavly is her serving. Lots of double faults is a tradition for her. Sanchez plays unorthodox style and I can see the Russian girl having huge problems covering the court. She was beaten by Sanchez couple months ago in Toronto and it can happen again. Sanchez being rated @ 2.15 is definitely worth a shot here.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Looks like Lisicki might even retire...anyway, three more for me. (3/10) J.C.Ferrero (-2) to beat Thomaz Bellucci @ 1.88 with Pinnacle This does really look obvious and the line is too low imo. Bellucci is below average on hard courts and Ferrero can take advantage of that. The Spaniard is also in the better form and he has high hopes of getting some very important ranking points at the end of the season. (3/10) Jarmila Gajdosova Over 7.5 games (against Caroline Wozniacki) @ 1.93 with Pinnacle Low line after Wozniacki's struggles against Hradecka and Kanepi. Gajdosova is another ball-basher that can hit the ball around the court and her R1 win must have given her a lot of confidence. H2H is terrible, but the last match (which is the most accurate obv) suggests that Gajdosova should win eight games today. (3/10) Santiago Giraldo Over 11.5 games (against Robin Haase) @ 1.86 with Pinnacle I do not rate Giraldo as a huge underdog here and I would not put a victory beyond his reach today. Twelve games is certainly an achievable target for a solid, powerful player that is going to play against an inconsistent ball-basher (who cant even defend really).

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October In the absence of any football for a while i'll come back to the tennis; Wozniaki vs Gajdosova - Wozniaki -4.5 games 1.73 at Victor Chandler (3 units) Wozniaki is taking a bit of time to get back to her best following a good but tiring run at the US Open. Didn't do too well last week in Tokoyo which would have disapointed her as she had won that tournament the previous year. The same thing applies to this one in Beijing and i'm sure she wont want to crash out early again. She's up against a solid player in Gajdosova, but she's had limited success on hard courts this year other than very early on in Hobart. Don't think she'll be able to match Wozniaki on this surface. Indeed the h2h on the hard courts is 3-0 and all of beaten this handicap. Bartoli vs McHale - McHale +2.5 games 2.0 at Victor Chandler (2 units) I cant quite figure out Bartoili at the moment and she's really struggled for any kind of momentum since the Stanford Open a couple of months ago. Since then theres been a number of poor performances including a loss to McHale at the US Open. Having not done well here last year I dont think Bartoli will be that bothered about needing to go far in this competition and in my eyes she probably just wants the season to finish now. I think McHale has shown already that she doesn't fear reputations and has had some very good results against the big names including Wozniaki and as mentioned above Bartoli. If she's up for this game and I imagine she will be then she will probably win but atleast having a +2.5 cover covers me in case of a tight Bartoli win. Lets see how these go and I might be back with more later. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October

John Isner vs Ivan Ljubicic over 23.5 games @evens local bookie VOID Maria Kirilenko vs Samantha Stosur over 21.5 games @evens local bookie WIN
It's getting better, but still in tiny loss this week. Let's hope for better second half (and let's hope Andy Roddick actually retires :-) . edit: following the Czech's general idea of Gajdosova not folding against in poor form Wozniacki, and adding Jarmila Gajdosova vs Caroline Wozniacki over 19.5 games @evens local bookie This is a replay of last week's WTA Tokio R2 match, where Caroline was in similar shape (bad one), and Jarmila even managed to grab a set (61 67 63 for Woz). Now Jarmila knows she can win a set against Woz, and with quite nice performance in R1 (did beat Medina-Garrigues 63 60) she will refuse to fold in easy two sets. GL :hope

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October

Jarmila Gajdosova vs Caroline Wozniacki over 19.5 games @evens local bookie LOSS
No way. Gajdosova 48 percent first serve in only. She perhaps can cook some tasty Australian meal, but as to tennis, she should follow Roddick and retire. I am done with that lamer. :@

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October

I'll enter the fray this week with three selections, all with small stakes ... - Lukasz Kubot +3 games AH (v Ernests Gulbis) @ 2.05 - 3pts staked with Pinnacle It's very hard to make a case for Gulbis at the moment. Just when he appears to be finding some form, he totally collapses. I fear the same scenario in this match. The Latvian's mental fragility is no secret these days. He doesn't concentrate or train hard enough and although new coach Guillermo Canas has eked some improvement out of him, he still loses to players he shouldn't do. Last week it was Simone Bolelli, at the US Open it was Gilles Muller. He appears to struggle as favourite, and the expectations that come with it. Kubot's not a world-beater but he's solid enough and comes out with a tricky serve-volley gameplan that can get under opponent's skin. He's proved he can play on a number of surfaces and got a win under his belt last week after beating Lukas Rosol. He was sidelined by injury after Wimbledon but he will be approaching peak fitness now. This match will also be played in the morning, and Gulbis is notorious for not enjoying an early start. He tends to play his best tennis when against bigger names, and the grittiness and unorthodox nature of the Pole could upset him. Certainly, I wouldn't give Kubot such a big handicap considering Gulbis' nature. I feel it's definitely worth a small stake. - Mikhail Youzhny (v Nicolas Almagro) @ 1.826 - 3pts staked with Pinnacle I always feel this is the right time of year to fade Almagro. He does all the hard work earlier in the season on the red brick. This campaign has been no exception, with almost half a dozen clay titles and plenty of cash to boot. The reason for that is (a) he's good on clay and (b) not nearly as effective on other surfaces. That fact is even more pertinent against decent opponents. Youzhny is exactly that, an opponet actually ranked a little lower than his true ability, and I reckon the Russian can win this match. Besides the aforementioned surface issue, Almagro has struggled with Youzhny in the past. The H2H is 3-0 in the Russian's favour, the most recent success coming at Wimbledon this year. He's also beaten him on clay and most famously in 2008, when the crazed Soviet smashed his racket over his head to knock some sense back into himself, when he was on the brink of losing to him at Indian Wells (take a peek at this:
). That sort of incident won't be forgotten and should play on Almagro's mind. Youzhny got an epic win over Thomaz Bellucci in the Davis Cup a few weeks ago and does relish playing fighters on this sort of court. It may be a tough one for him but Almagro is not comfortable on a hard court at this time of year. He demonstrated this in Kuala Lumpur last week; he was taken to two tie-breaks by Albert Ramos and lost to Kei Nishikori, both technically inferior players. This is a very winnable match for Youzhny. I'd have him a lot shorter, so I'm willing to make a play on him. - Juan Carlos Ferrero -2.5 games (v Thomaz Bellucci) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle - 3pts staked with Pinnacle Ferrero's main crux of the year was wrecked by a hip injury, but the mosquito was back to form at the US Open, where he made the last 16 and played a couple of blinders, one being against Gael Monfils. He is still a very adriot player on his day. What was evident in New York is that his ability to construct a rally is still clearly evident. He doesn't play with a lot of power but serves intelligently and builds points up with variation and angles. He's proven on all surfaces so the transition to conditions in Tokyo should not be a problem for him. I fear for Bellucci in this one because I still don't think he's mature enough to beat players like Ferrero on quicker surfaces. On clay, his best surface, he plays very well, but his recent form is alarming. He was in total control against Dudi Sela at the US Open and then totally collapsed, and his confidence will have been dented further by his defeat to Youzhny (14-12 in the 5th set) on Davis Cup duty. He is not a man on form. He did beat Ferrero back in 2009 but that was on clay and in Brazil, the perfect combination for Bellucci backers. Out of his comfort zone, his strokes become very erratic, and his serve dissolves. With the wily Ferrero showing glimpses of bygone years, I make him a justified favourite and a man who should clinch this with the handicap to spare.
Gulbis d. Kubot 6-3 3-6 7-5 - WIN Youzhny d. Almagro 6-3 6-2 - WIN Ferrero d. Bellucci 6-1 7-6 - WIN Excellent day's work :ok

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October On a poor run lately in terms of tennis, so hoping to get back on the track. Only ATP this time :rollin Lopez > Youzhny. 1.96 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Not a fan of Lopez but can not miss out on this one. Youzhny has been really poor this year and has been involved in a lot of suspicious matches. Was not sure he would win the first match here, but he did. No big deal anyway. Lopez is a nightmare opponent for Mikha. Lopez leads their H2H series 4-1 and Youzhny has not beaten him since 2002. They haven't played much recently with the last meeting being dated with 2009 Sunrise Challenger. Lopez won 2 and 3 back then. The advantage for Lopez is serve whilst Youzhny can not rely on his serve and if he gets behind there might no be a way back. Baghdatis +4.5 vs Murray. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (3/10) Muzza has got poor record against Baggy, just one win in 4 matches and that was on clay in French Open. Other than that Baghdatis has beaten Murray 3 times. If he plays his best, he can keep this match very close and maybe even win it. Murray just won a title and might not be focused for the first match. Small stakes as Baghdatis is really pathetic and might not show up. Fish vs Gulbis. Under 22.5 games. 1.85 @ Bwin (5/10) They have had couple overs, so this bet of unders might seem as weird one but I think this match will be unders. One of the reasons is that on most markets the total games line is @ 22 games which normally looks lame but when it comes to the business lots of times it's unders when you least expect it. Fish has poor record outside Americas and was all over the place against Harrison. Gulbis can win this match in straight sets or lose it straights as well. Tursunov > Tipsarevic. 3.60 @ Bwin (6/10) Tipsarevic can throw this away and this time no-one will have a reason to be suspicios. The guy has just one his first title and won't be focused. He picked up a bit of a back problem in Kuala Lumpur and that is another reason to fake a retirement. He's had so many retirements during his career that this one would not surprise anyone. Odds are really good for Tipsarevic to make some money via not even playing much tennis. Just a few games and your good to go. Going for a risk here, obviously.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Some great calls there Atko.

Wozniaki vs Gajdosova - Wozniaki -4.5 games 1.73 at Victor Chandler (3 units) :ok Bartoli vs McHale - McHale +2.5 games 2.0 at Victor Chandler (2 units) :eek
Well nothing ventured, nothing gained as they say and atleast I came out with a (very small) profit of +0.19 units :drums. Might have another crack tomorrow with this ; Zvonareva vs Ivanovic - Over 21 games 1.90 at unibet (2.5 units) Zvonareva is a trooper but reaching the final (and then losing) in Tokyo last week and then having to play again this week is bound to cause some mental and physicall exhaustion. We saw this against Zakopolova in the first round when she dropped a set and I think Ivanovic and her style of play will cause problems again tomorrow. Coming of the back of two strong wins at the tournament I think Ivanovic will be thinking about causing an upset here tomorrow, and is more than capable of at least taking a set if Zvonareva gets a little sluggish. However Zvonareva rarely gives up without a fight and Ivanovic has been known in here time to not know when she's beaten so can see these two slugging out for a fair few games. Stats back up these thoughts, the last 3 H2H on hard courts between the two have gone 21 or over and the last match up in Carlsbad back in August had 3 sets and 32 games. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October 2/3, which is decent enough. Let's try another two. (3/10) Marcos Baghdatis Over 8 games (against Andy Murray) @ 1.88 with Pinnacle Eight games in these quick conditions should be achivable for a solid player like Baghdatis. He knows how to play against Murray and although I do not expect him to win, he should be good to get something from this match. (3/10) Ernests Gulbis Over 11.5 games (against Mardy Fish) @ 1.92 with Pinnacle I might regret this, but this price is hard to ignore. He covers this line even in many defeats (Bolelli, for example) and he covered it in both matches against Fish, so 12 games is not beyond him here either. Fast conditions, big serve and the fact that Fish has problems with return only add to this bet.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October hard call today, gonna go full with florian mayer, he's been playing good tennis, if it goes to 3 sets, then its goodbye to ljubo good value in him as well and also have to jump into lopez's bandwagon here, simply odds too good to be true

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Couple early ones for Thursday in WTA Wozniacki vs Kanepi. Over 20.5 games. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (6/10) Going of overs here. They have met three times before and every single time there were three sets played. It was the case last week in Tokyo when Kanepi managed to beat the world number one. Kanepi has got very powerful game and she can hurt Wozniacki, it's all about the execution. It was spot on last week. Wozzi struggled against Hradecka in the first round and Kanepi is very similar to the way Hradecka plays, perhaps, a bit more solid. Paszek +4.5 vs Kirilenko. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (5/10) The handicap line is 3.5 games on most other markets, so this is value for me. Would have taken 4 games as well and actually was thinking about splashing out on Paszek to win this one. She has beaten Kirilenko twice in two atempts and the match-up is very good. Paszek has got very good defense and that should help her win this match. Beating Jankovic will be good for confidence. Kirilenko is not so convincing on serve and I'm not sure she will be able to hit Paszek off the court. Paszek has got a chance in this one.

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October

Tursunov > Tipsarevic. 3.60 @ Bwin (6/10) :loon Fish vs Gulbis. Under 22.5 games. 1.85 @ Bwin (5/10) :ok Baghdatis +4.5 vs Murray. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (3/10) :ok Lopez > Youzhny. 1.96 @ Pinnacle (6/10) :@
Back to winning ways. Of course, it had to be Lopez to ruin a full house. Had a m.p. on 2nd serve return...

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October (7/10) Kevin Anderson vs Albert Montañes U. 21.5 @pinnacle 1.917 I got to take this one at high stakes. Anderson is one of the players that has improved a lot lately and is having his best year defeating strong players in fast surfaced. On the other hand montañes is not getting any results at all, not even in his favourite surface, the red brick. He was lucky he faced poor Capdeville and managed to get a win but Kevin is definately a class above the chilean or the spaniard in this type of surface. I would be pretty dissapointed if this one did´t came trough as 6/4 6/4 or even 6/3 7/5 are winner results :hope

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Re: Tennis - 3-9 October Ferrero -2.5 vs Granollers. 1.92 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Can't see anything other than comfortable outing for Ferrero. He has won all 4 matches against Granollers and two of those have been this year. Only one set dropped in 4 matches and that was the very first set they played. Was really impressed with Ferrero @ US Open. He beat Granollers over there as well and should get past his compatriot once again.

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