NFL Week Four Picks

[AGurv]

NFL 2011-2012 Overall 9W-9L-1P -0.73 units (50.00%) Last Week 2-3 -1.35 units Titans pick (-110) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes I might be the only on this. This is one of those games, off a big injury, unexplainable win. Without Kenny Britt this team will be lost, but they will come out hot the first game IMO. Maybe CJ finally gets it going for 50+ yards.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks New Orleans -6.5 This one seems too easy deosn't it? Not sure why Vegas still sees the Jags as viable team. Sure their defense is much improved but they're starting Gabbert against Greg Williams' complex and aggressive defense. The Saints sually feast on such QBs.The Saints will pick their matchup like they do every week and I can't see Brees and co being held in this game.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Dallas/Detroit Over 46.5 Both teams have struggled defensively against the pass, the strength of both teams is the pass. Romo is banged up as is Dez Bryant but he should be much better by Sunday. The Lions still have plenty of holes defensively, especially against the TE, I do expect Witten to be opne often. Defensively the Cowboys DBs will struggle with Megatron. There are too many weapons for the Cowboys to cope with. The only worry is that Lions LT Jeff Backus could get owned by Ware.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks St Louis/Washington Under 43.5 This bet is mainly due to the fact these offenses struggle to score TDs. They move the ball ok between the 20's but they simply don't have any presence in the red zone. The Rams have really struggled in that area scoring 3 TDs all season and only one a 19 yd pass was scored in 6 red zone trips. The Skins seem to work on a ball control offense that lacks in explosive plays. I see much of the same here and I do expect the Rams defense to put up a strong effort at home, as even at 0-3 they have a chance in the NFC West.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Kind of a general couple of questions about staking, but they relate to this week's Patriots game. There are two mistakes I've made repeatedly when betting. More than two, actually, but two that I really have resolved never to do again: 1. I settle on a system, and abandon it if it doesn't pan out, and thus miss out on wins later when things correct. 2. On the occasions when my bankroll grew, I'd up the amount I'd bet. That is, I'd play the same 2 or 3 percent figure, but it would be larger because my bankroll would have grown...and that way, when a losing streak followed, I lost more money. I've gotten much more disciplined, though I still have occasional lapses. But the current situation is this: In soccer, I'm making all 1-unit plays, whether the bankroll is up 30 percent or down 30 percent. In the NFL, I decided this year that since the systems I was playing were successful year-in, year-out, I'd make these 3-unit bets. My staking made sense to me also because of the difference in the number of plays: I'm making two or three NFL plays a week, but 20 to 30 soccer plays a week. You can bet what happened. I'm on a killer soccer run...making all 1-unit bets, I'm something like 52-23...up 34 units. In the NFL, playing 3-unit bets, I'm 0-4 for minus 13 units. Having gone down this road, I'm kind of committed to the 3-unit plays. The system play is under the total if it hits 50. Only one of them was close; the Patriots scored with under two minutes left to kill one of them, and the other three games have averaged 65 points or something. This week, the one play is New England-Oakland, and the line has risen from 53 to 55. Having watched the Patriots a couple times, I can tell you I don't know why the number isn't 65. They have a defensive coach, right? They going to make adjustments one of these days? If I stop now, or pull the units back to 1 or 2, there's no chance I'll ever make up the 13 units I've lost in two weeks. But I'm really wondering whether things have changed in the NFL. There were a lot of unders this past week, but not under the big number. The big number's getting smoked. So there are two questions: 1. Has the NFL fundamentally changed, making this a poor system for the first time in 30 years? 2. Ride it out at 3 units apiece, cut back to 1 unit, or cut and run? Thanks for your opinions.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

New Orleans -6.5 This one seems too easy deosn't it? Not sure why Vegas still sees the Jags as viable team. Sure their defense is much improved but they're starting Gabbert against Greg Williams' complex and aggressive defense. The Saints sually feast on such QBs.The Saints will pick their matchup like they do every week and I can't see Brees and co being held in this game.

I can think of three reasons it might not be easy: 1. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road, while Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home. 2. Saints currently getting about 94% of the bets. 3. The line of -6.5. I hate this line. Bookies aren't stupid, and with this line they're practically begging you to take New Orleans. -6.5 is the $29.99 of football betting. The psychology of it is insidious. Let me ask you this...knowing that in 80 percent of NFL games the point spread doesn't come into play, would you make this bet if the line was set at -7.5 instead of -6.5? How about -9.5?

[meatman]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks The NFL lockout seems to have had more of an affect on defences, especially secondaries than many people expected. To me, I think its obvious the chemistry between backline's hasn't been as good. Now, whether or not that will continue I dont know, technically as time goes on defences should settle down. This season just feels like a bit of a freak year in many ways, some unusual numbers may well be posted up come the end of this campaign. Regarding this 'under 50 system' If I was in your shoes I think I'd cut and run for this season and start again next year when everyone has had full preparation. Like I said, its possible things might settle down again, but right now its probably too risky and would be a gamble

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

Kind of a general couple of questions about staking, but they relate to this week's Patriots game. There are two mistakes I've made repeatedly when betting. More than two, actually, but two that I really have resolved never to do again: 1. I settle on a system, and abandon it if it doesn't pan out, and thus miss out on wins later when things correct. 2. On the occasions when my bankroll grew, I'd up the amount I'd bet. That is, I'd play the same 2 or 3 percent figure, but it would be larger because my bankroll would have grown...and that way, when a losing streak followed, I lost more money. I've gotten much more disciplined, though I still have occasional lapses. But the current situation is this: In soccer, I'm making all 1-unit plays, whether the bankroll is up 30 percent or down 30 percent. In the NFL, I decided this year that since the systems I was playing were successful year-in, year-out, I'd make these 3-unit bets. My staking made sense to me also because of the difference in the number of plays: I'm making two or three NFL plays a week, but 20 to 30 soccer plays a week. You can bet what happened. I'm on a killer soccer run...making all 1-unit bets, I'm something like 52-23...up 34 units. In the NFL, playing 3-unit bets, I'm 0-4 for minus 13 units. Having gone down this road, I'm kind of committed to the 3-unit plays. The system play is under the total if it hits 50. Only one of them was close; the Patriots scored with under two minutes left to kill one of them, and the other three games have averaged 65 points or something. This week, the one play is New England-Oakland, and the line has risen from 53 to 55. Having watched the Patriots a couple times, I can tell you I don't know why the number isn't 65. They have a defensive coach, right? They going to make adjustments one of these days? If I stop now, or pull the units back to 1 or 2, there's no chance I'll ever make up the 13 units I've lost in two weeks. But I'm really wondering whether things have changed in the NFL. There were a lot of unders this past week, but not under the big number. The big number's getting smoked. So there are two questions: 1. Has the NFL fundamentally changed, making this a poor system for the first time in 30 years? 2. Ride it out at 3 units apiece, cut back to 1 unit, or cut and run? Thanks for your opinions.

From my experience betting on the NFL things usually begin to settle down between weeks 3-6. Week 1 never makes any sense to me, while week 2 things get clearer. Overs were 24-7 through 2 weeks, and unders are usually the play early in the season, now the unders came back last week, and i think Vegas inflated the overs by a couple of points to help that out. Maybe meet half way at 2 units, things usually level off in this league and I don't see this being any different and I would stick your system, discipline my friend you can never chase.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

I can think of three reasons it might not be easy: 1. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road, while Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home. 2. Saints currently getting about 94% of the bets. 3. The line of -6.5. I hate this line. Bookies aren't stupid, and with this line they're practically begging you to take New Orleans. -6.5 is the $29.99 of football betting. The psychology of it is insidious. Let me ask you this...knowing that in 80 percent of NFL games the point spread doesn't come into play, would you make this bet if the line was set at -7.5 instead of -6.5? How about -9.5?

That is true the Saints have struggled away from home, but they're much better than last season. I would still take NO at -9.5 as I don't see a difference between -7.5 and -9.5, but if the 6.5 is there than why not go for it. The Saints are an odd team but they do show up for a couple of blow out road games every season and I see this one being as such. Gabbert vs Greg Williams' defense is a matchup I can't ignore.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

That is true the Saints have struggled away from home' date=' but they're much better than last season. I would still take NO at -9.5 as I don't see a difference between -7.5 and -9.5, but if the 6.5 is there than why not go for it. The Saints are an odd team but they do show up for a couple of blow out road games every season and I see this one being as such. Gabbert vs Greg Williams' defense is a matchup I can't ignore.[/quote'] I agree with you about Gabbert vs Greg Williams' defense, or anyone's defense, at least on the face of it. Two more things have occurred to me that makes the -6.5 make more sense, though: 4. Greg Williams' defense has been torched by two admittedly top-five offenses...but is it any better than last year, when the team went 11-5 and gave up a boatload of points? 5. This is the first of three straight games on the road, where NO has been weak of late. The two road games that follow this one are against Carolina and Tampa Bay, two division games.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

From my experience betting on the NFL things usually begin to settle down between weeks 3-6. Week 1 never makes any sense to me' date=' while week 2 things get clearer. Overs were 24-7 through 2 weeks, and unders are usually the play early in the season, now the unders came back last week, and i think Vegas inflated the overs by a couple of points to help that out. Maybe meet half way at 2 units, things usually level off in this league and I don't see this being any different and I would stick your system, discipline my friend you can never chase.[/quote'] That makes sense, thanks for tackling the problem. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

I can think of three reasons it might not be easy: 1. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road, while Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home. 2. Saints currently getting about 94% of the bets. 3. The line of -6.5. I hate this line. Bookies aren't stupid, and with this line they're practically begging you to take New Orleans. -6.5 is the $29.99 of football betting. The psychology of it is insidious. Let me ask you this...knowing that in 80 percent of NFL games the point spread doesn't come into play, would you make this bet if the line was set at -7.5 instead of -6.5? How about -9.5?

You all know I love my situations in the NFL... League: 3-15 (Av. win 0.8) road 3+ fav, total 44.5+, off a 7+ SU win as home 3+ fav, if opp lost ats with 30+ TOP. [NO] 0-8 (Av. LOSS 5.1...2-6 SU) if they (NO) allowed

[trips]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

I can think of three reasons it might not be easy: 1. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road, while Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home. 2. Saints currently getting about 94% of the bets. 3. The line of -6.5. I hate this line. Bookies aren't stupid, and with this line they're practically begging you to take New Orleans. -6.5 is the $29.99 of football betting. The psychology of it is insidious. Let me ask you this...knowing that in 80 percent of NFL games the point spread doesn't come into play, would you make this bet if the line was set at -7.5 instead of -6.5? How about -9.5?

To be honest allthethings i am not really sure what you mean in 2+3,but I assume you are exaggerating when you say the Saints are getting 94% of the bets, if this was the case surely the spread would be -15 by now. This game is no different from any other NFL game .money comes for 1 team the spread changes. News of major injury,spread changes. 80% of NFL games the spread does not come into play? Do you mean punters will back a team they fancy no matter what the spread. Would the opposite not be true in this case,if bookies were screaming to take bets on the saints at -6.5 as this is too high then astute punters would be piling into the jags at +6.5. not having a go with above points but would like to know what you mean.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

To be honest allthethings i am not really sure what you mean in 2+3,but I assume you are exaggerating when you say the Saints are getting 94% of the bets, if this was the case surely the spread would be -15 by now. This game is no different from any other NFL game .money comes for 1 team the spread changes. News of major injury,spread changes. 80% of NFL games the spread does not come into play? Do you mean punters will back a team they fancy no matter what the spread. Would the opposite not be true in this case,if bookies were screaming to take bets on the saints at -6.5 as this is too high then astute punters would be piling into the jags at +6.5. not having a go with above points but would like to know what you mean.

You are correct... ;) ...the extremely inviting line + 83.21% of bets (real numbers) on NO + little line movement (back up to 7 now, but opened at 7) means one of two things... ...that either the books are more than happy to take 83% of the bets because they are confident of them not winning... ...or that the remaining 17% of bets are BIG enough to balance out the rest, hence your astute punters. :ok

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

You are correct... ;) ...the extremely inviting line + 83.21% of bets (real numbers) on NO + little line movement (back up to 7 now, but opened at 7) means one of two things... ...that either the books are more than happy to take 83% of the bets because they are confident of them not winning... ...or that the remaining 17% of bets are BIG enough to balance out the rest, hence your astute punters. :ok

It really was 94% when I wrote that. The 80% thing I wrote meant that in four out of five games in the NFL, the team that covers the line wins outright. People spend a lot of time worrying about the -3 or +3.5 or whatever, but actually, in the NFL you just need to decide who's going to win the game...not that that's easy....

[trips]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks

It really was 94% when I wrote that. The 80% thing I wrote meant that in four out of five games in the NFL, the team that covers the line wins outright. People spend a lot of time worrying about the -3 or +3.5 or whatever, but actually, in the NFL you just need to decide who's going to win the game...not that that's easy....

This is something i would like more info on, i understand the theory but how did you get the info of 94% are backing the Saints. It obviously works in all markets, favourite 1/3.other team 11/4, nobody wants to back the favourite for a couple of pounds,so most bets are small and for 11/4 team, the fewer big money bets on the 1/3 team covers these bets, This is why spread betting works, you handicap one team,in theory they both have an even chance, why would the Money line opinion still apply if the handicap is roughly right.are punters just backing the fancied team no matter what the handicap? 80% of the teams who cover the spread win is very high but i rarely back the Money line,any info on how many teams who cover the spread actually beat the spread, Ive no doubt your info is right,would like to know how this works.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Player Performance Picks **All bets are with Bet365 (so there might be better odds/lines about)** 1pt MJD Over 87.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.80 Saints gave up 4.6ypc against the Packers (21 carries) and 4.9ypc to Forte (10 carries) the week prior. Last week they improved "only" giving up 82 yards on 19 carries to Tate last week (4.3ypc), most of which were in the first half, before the Texans gave up the ground game to chase the lead. The point here is that the Saints struggle to stop the run right now, conceding well over 4ypc. MJD has cleared this line in all 3 games so far, reaching 24 carries in 2/3 games. With Gabbert under centre the Jax defense is going to be a heavy dose of MJD and with the Saints run D so far this year I'm happy to side with my fantasy RB here. 1pt Fred Davis Over 42.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.80 Davis has cleared this line in his first 2 games before a very lacklustre performance last week. Regardless, it's clear that he is a favourite target of Grossman and the Rams D hasn't been anything to write home about. Personally I like the Rams to win this week so if the 'Skins are chasing the game then some garbage time yards to one of Grossman's favourite targets could help out if his first half performance isn't up to par. 1pt Jonathan Stewart Over 65.5 Scrimmage Yards @ 1.90 Stewart has achieved this in his past 2 games and I'm happy at these odds to look for a similar result. He's becoming much better in the passing game and with the Bears likely to be leading the whole way I'd look for him to be on the field more than Williams. The Bears also have one of the best linebacker corps in the league so I'd expect the Panthers to use some halfback screens designed for Stewart.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Spread Line Plays 1pt Detroit +2.5 @ 1.95 Sportingbet Taza, what are the situations like here? Detroit coming over an OT win and on the road, Dallas coming off a 4th qtr win against divisional rival. Would be curious to see what the stats say about that. In any event, I like the Lions here. Dallas without Austin and Ogletree is just a poor replacement. Dez is questionable and even if he plays I suspect he'll be somewhat limited. Cowboys don't run well at the best of times and those prospects don't improve with this Lions front 4. Romo of course has those rib concerns whilst conversely, the Lions are pretty much injury free, with the main weapons of Stafford, Megatron, Best et al. ready to fire. Taking the points to be safe as both teams, Dallas in particular, have trouble scoring TDs in the redzone and even if they do win I think it's by another small margin. 1pt St Loius +3 @ 1.86 Bet365 Washington on the road after a divisional loss and on a short week. Again, would love to know the stats here Taza! Particularly facing a team winless on the season? What I see here are two relatively similar teams in terms of quality, one over-performing and the other under-performing, and the line/odds IMO being a bit of an over-reaction to this. The 0-3 Rams have had a tough start with games against the Eagles, Ravens and Giants, all teams arguably tougher than the Redskins and I think this represents a prime opportunity for this Rams team to kick-start their season against beatable opposition. Bradford gets this done IMO, but taking the points as I think any Washington win is going to be small and like the extra safety on offer by the field goal start. Money Line Plays 1pt Cleveland @ 2.05 Bet365 Kenny Britt out for the season and the Titans come here with only CJ as a big threat on offense. He's a class player and could turn it around, but right now he's struggling and now the team's biggest receiving threat is gone. Situationally that's a major negative. I think the odds are against Cleveland here because of that big win against Baltimore, but I put that down to a let down spot for the Ravens rather than the Titan's being brilliant. Britt was a key figure in that win, and now you take him out of a side that should have lost to the Broncos and did lose to a McClown led Jags? Hillis back too, Browns at home. I'm on the Browns.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Minnesota -6.5 @ 2.44 centrebet Both teams have lost their opening 3 games but Minnesota have led by at least 10 points in each of them at half time only to allow other teams to come back into the game and they end up losing it. They will look to run the ball once again as RB Peterson heads a rush unit that is ranked 3rd with 159 yards per game and he should do well against a Kansas rush defence that allows 129 yards per game (ranked 28th). Minnesota only averages 143 yards through the air but with injuries to the Kansas secondary, QB McNabb may be able to get some good yardage in this game. Kansas was a team that it too focused on the run until they lost RB Charles, and with just 131 passing yards and 113 rushing yards per game, they have scored just 27 points in their 3 games. QB Cassel will need to step up here as the Minnesota rush defence is one of the best in the league and they allow little to get through them. Not sure that he will have time to exploit the Minnesota secondary that allows an average of 299 yards per game, as their pass rush is very good and expect them to put plenty of pressure on Cassel. Minnesota should be able to set this up with their running game, while containing the Kansas rush as neither QB has shown that they can take control of the game. Buffalo -6.5 @ 2.48 centrebet Buffalo have won their opening 3 games and with a huge comeback win over the Patriots, they will be on a high here to continue their good form. QB Fitzpatrick has 841 passing yards so far with 9 TDs and 3 INTs (ranked 10th) while their running game with Jackson, who has 303 rushing yards so far and 3 TDs, is ranked 4th with 155 yards per game. Cincinnati's defence has been good, with just 188 passing yards per game allowed (ranked 5th) and 88 rushing yards per game allowed (ranekd 3rd). However stopping an offence that scored at least 34 points in each of their 3 games is going to be very hard for them to do. Cincinnati has had its struggles on offence as QB Dalton has 570 passing yards with 3 TDs at a average of 205 yards per game (ranked 22nd) while RB Benson leads a rush attack that averages 97 yards per game (ranked 17th). While they should be able to score on a Buffalo defence that allows an average of 24 points per game based on 272 passing yards and 116 rushing yards per game allowed, hard to see the Bengals staying with this potent and balanced offence Atlanta -6.5 @ 2.13 centrebet Atlanta have lost both of their road games, as their offence has struggled to get points on the board, but like to do well against a Seattle side that has not been playing well either. Atlanta has plenty of weapons on offence with QB Ryan looking to WRs White and Jones as well as TE Gonzalez to score on a Seattle secondary that allows 210 passing yards per game (ranked 10th), while RB Turner will be looking to do much more on Seattle's rush defence that allows an average of 100 rushing yards per game (ranked 13th). Seattle has not faced a balanced offence like this so far this season, as San Fran, Pittsburgh and Arizona are not as good, yet they still lost heavily to the first two sides. On defence, Atlanta will be looking to improve on their 261 passing yards allowed per game (ranked 22nd) and 112 rushing yards allowed per game (ranked 16th) but they have faced much better offences than this one here, as Seattle has passed for 142 yards per game (ranked 28th) and ran for 72 yards per game (ranked 29th). Though Atlanta can improve on both side of the ball, hard to not see them winning this well given that Seattle struggle to move the ball and expect their defence to be overworked due to the little rest they get, because their offence cannot put good drives together. Green Bay -16.5 @ 2.56 centrebet Green Bay's offence has been clicking with QB Rodgers in fine form, as he has passed for an average of 294 yards per game (ranked 8th) as well as getting some good production from their run game that averages 109 runs per game (ranked 10th). Denver has done well on defence where they have allowed an average of 235 passing yards (ranked 13th) and 100 rushing yards (ranked 10th) per game, but they have not faced a balanced offence like this one, as Oakland, Cincinnati and Tennessee have scored an average of 21 points per game but expect the Packers to easily score more here. Denver has had its struggles on offence as they have averaged just 210 passing yards (ranked 20th) and 76 rushing yards (ranked 28th) per game. While the Packers secondary has been sloppy, allowing 359 yards per game, one reason for this is the tendency to teams to pass the ball more often as they look to reduce the deficit they are facing when playing them. The Packers allow just 55 rushing yards per game (ranked 1st) so doubt that Denver will have much success here, so they will have to pass on them, but this Packers secondary does have some good players there. GB have beaten Denver 41-6 and 31-3 in the last two times they have hosted them and like them to continue that disparency in talent once again. Arizona - NY Giants over 45.5 @ 2.06 pinnacle Arizona have lost their last 2 games on the road but come back home where they won the opening game of the season, 28-21 over Carolina. They will look to QB Kolb to continue to look to WR Fitzgerald as they look to exploit an injury hit Giants secondary that has allowed an average of 255 yards per game (ranked 20th) while RB Wells may not be as productive against a Giants rush defence that allows 103 yards per game (ranked 15th). While they managed to stop the Eagles passing game last week but got hurt in the running game, like the Cardinals to pass on them as the Giants make the trip across the country to face them NY will look to QB Manning to have another good game as he is coming off throwing for 254 yards and 4 TDs and like him to do well against some inexperienced CBs who are part of a secondary that allows an average of275 yards per game (ranekd 25th). Also they have a good pair of running backs in Bradshaw and Jacobs who average 99 yards per game (ranked 15th). Expect them to see quite a bit of the ball as Arizona allows 123 yards per game on the ground (ranked 27th), and even Seattle managed to get 122 yards last week, so expect these two to combine for even more yardage here. Neither defence is that good to stop both offences scoring points, and can see both QBs doing well while both of the run games should set up the passing game quite well. Oakland - New England over 55.5 @ 1.91 centrebet Oakland is a team that focuses on running the ball as they average 185 rushing yards per game (ranked 1st) and they have had some success passing the ball as well, averaging 190 yards per game (ranked 24th). They managed to rush for 234 yards against one of the better rush defences in the league (NY Jets) and expect them to get similar figures against a Patriots rush defence that allows an average of 92 yards per game (ranked 10th) while the secondary allows 377 yards per game, and like QB Campbell to also do well here, as he was efficient with 156 yards on 18 of 27 attempts last week. Oakland has averaged 31 points per game while NE has alowed an average of 26 points per game, so like them to score plenty here. NE have the best passing game with QB Brady averaging 438 yards per game, and with the Oakland defence allowing 290 yards per game (ranked 28th), he should do well here yet again. They run for 103 yards per game (ranked 13th) while Oakland allows 120 yards per game (ranked 26th) so their offence that has averaged 35 points per game, should get similar amount of points here as Oakland has allowed 27 points per game. San Diego - Miami over 45.5 @ 2.09 pinnacle Expecting San Diego QB Rivers to have a good game here as he averages 320 yards per game (ranked 5th) and to throw more TDs rather than INTs as he faces a Miami secondary that allows 311 yards per game (ranked 31st). Their rushing duo of Matthews and Tolbert should also have some success on Miami who allow an average of 105 yards per game (ranked 16th). Miami will look to run the ball as they average 130 yards on the ground (ranked 7th) as they have their problems scoring even though QB Henne is passing for 258 yards per game (ranked 13th), as too many dropped passes and an OL that cannot give him protection, means much of his good work is wasted. The Chargers do have a good defence but they have injury concerns in all 3 levels of their defence and Miami will be confident that they may be able to get some points here as SD allows 203 passing yards per game (ranked 9th) and 111 rushing yards per game (ranked 19th). All 3 teams that SD has faced this year have scored at least 17 points, so can see Miami scoring this much and even more if the run game continues to get some production from RB Thomas. Baltimore - NY Jets under 43.5 @ 1.95 pinnacle Baltimore has been very good defensively as they average 245 passing yards (ranked 17th ) and just 84 rushing yards per game (ranked 6th) and like them to contain a Jets side that likes to focus on running the ball, even though they average 82 yards per game (ranked 25th). QB Sanchez has picked up his game and he averages 279 yards per game (ranked 10th) so while they may look to pass on this Baltimore secondary, they will begin with the run game and see how things go from there. Baltimore also tend to run the ball, as they average 128 yards per game (ranked 8th) while they pass for 261 yards per game (ranked 12st). With the Jets allowing 137 yards per game (ranked 31st) then expect them to use RB Rice quite a bit here, while the Jets have done well to contain the yardage though the air as they allow 189 passing yards per game (ranked 6th). With both teams likely to run the ball, then can see this being a low scoring game, and they have averaged 23 points in their last 3 meetings, with Baltimore winning 10-9 last year. Record: 7-15 (-4.80)

[meatman]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks De Sean Jackson over 62.5 receiving @ 1.80 Bet365 Calvin Johnson over 77 receiving @ 1.83 Paddypower Steve Johnson over 70.5 receiving @ 1.86 Bodog Adrian Peterson over 97.5 rushing @ 1.86 Bodog Drew Brees over 275.5 passing @ 1.83 Ladbrokes Those are my main performance bets today all for 4pts On the teams I've taken :- Bills ML @ 1.65 Vikings ML @ 1.60 Lions +3 @ 1.90 Titans ML @ 1.91 NE -6 1.90 SD -7 @ 2.0 Good luck all :ok

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks NY Giants -2 Giants have been picking up their game the past 2 weeks while the Cards have struggled. The Cards are lacking any offensive punch outisde of Fitzgerald. The Giants D Line abused a bad Eagles OLine last week. Now thery get another in Arizona's. The Giants have been running the ball quite well and their offense has been incorporating the RBs in the passing game as well. Arizona is at home but it will be about 30% Giants fans anyways.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Left it late :$ Jaguars +7.5 @ 1/1 Rams -2.5 @ 8/5 Vikings -4.5 @ 1/1 Steelers -2.5 @ 7/4 (All with 365) MoJo over 88.5 rush yds @ 1.83 Brady over 330.5 pass yds @ 1.83 Nate Washington over 70.5 receiving yds @ 1.83 Romo under 270.5 passing yds @ 1.83 LeSean under 89.5 rush yds @ 1.83 (All with Ladbrokes) Record 4-12 (-6.05)

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Minnesota -6.5 @ 2.44 :eyes They were rubbish Buffalo -6.5 @ 2.48 :eyes Led 17-3 at half time and scored just 3 points in the second half. Atlanta -6.5 @ 2.13 :eyes Led 24-7 at half time and then scored just 6 points in the second half. Green Bay -16.5 @ 2.56 :D Arizona - NY Giants over 45.5 @ 2.06 :D Oakland - New England over 55.5 @ 1.91 :eyes San Diego - Miami over 45.5 @ 2.09 :eyes Baltimore - NY Jets under 43.5 @ 1.95 :eyes When 5 TDs are the result of fumble returns (2), interceptions (2) and a kick return, then there is no chance of this staying under. Record: 9-21 (-8.18)

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Well the Saints did cover the 7 points, however it was a very strange game. The Saints seemed in control for most of the game going up 14-0 early but they seemed to make silly mistakes as the game went on; ints, penalties, missed FGs. Despite outgaining the Jags 503-275 they really seemed lackluster and if it wasn't for Gabbert and the Jags ineptitude down the stretch they would've covered, the back door cover was open the whole 2nd half. The Saints can be tough to figure out sometimes, we know their notoriously unpredictable in fantasy football but I've seen this several times where they dominate and get up on teams early only to make things difficult as the game goes on. Conversly when the Saints give up early points they usually get back in the game quickl;y and finish strong.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Some good picks this week Rob :ok

[meatman]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks I like the look of tonight's match from a performances point of view, I have a good feeling about it. For what it's worth, I think the colts can keep TB honest tonight and be competitive, but I don't think I'd want to be risking +10 on them really, although it's a tempter. Curtis Painter over 180.5 passing yards @ 1.83 Ladbrokes 3pts You know what, I’m going to give Curtis Painter a shot here and I think he’ll do ok. Actually, he impressed me in that final TD drive the colts had against the Steelers last week, he looked better than Kerry Collins anyway! If he can just avoid a shaky start I think he’ll grow in this match and there will be opportunities against this TB defence. Its not particularly good against the pass and I’d say there is a good chance he can pass 180.5+ yards. This is a really low number and as long as he stays on the field throughout, I’d expect him to cover it. Reggie Wayne over 60.5 receiving yards @ 1.83 Ladbrokes 3pts Reggie Wayne is a quality WR who has obviously suffered greatly from Manning’s injury. However, despite this he has still managed to post up a few yards this season, over 100 against the Texans and 66 facing the Browns. He only received 26 against the Steelers last week but Kerry Collins was just awful in that game and the Steelers defence is better than the Bucs. I would expect Painter to go looking for him a few times here as he’s the best receiving option. For someone of his class, a line of 60.5 does look a bit low. Joseph Addai over 57.5 rushing yards @ 1.86 Bodog 4pts Despite my confidence that Painter will prove to be ok, its obvious the Colts will look to run the ball a few times as well. They persisted with this against the Steelers and Addai worked hard, doing pretty well against a renowned tough line against the run. Addai looked sharp to me and he should be able to cover this line against a poor defence. He should get enough opportunities and for a main primary RB, 57.5 is a low line considering the amount of carries he could get. Josh Freeman over 222.5 passing yards @ 1.86 Bodog 3pts I think this will be an offensive game and Freeman could go well against a poor Colts defence. They have looked vulnerable in the air this year and there will be enough opportunities to attack with his WRs in this one. The Colts actually looked decent against the run last week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep Blount ‘honest’ meaning they might have to throw it more with Freeman. He disappointed a bit last week throwing only 180 against the Falcons. He will want to impress more in this fixture and I see him having a good game, so I’ll take the overs. Mike Williams over 48.5 receiving yards @ 1.83 Paddypower 4pts Williams has yet to explode this year, but he’s due a big game and it might well come tonight. He proved last season that he’s got potential, albeit not consistency. This season he hadn’t started well, but as the no1 WR its surely only a matter of time before he delivers. A game facing the Colts defence might be just what he needs, and there will surely be opportunities in this one. A line of 48.5 is extremely low for a no1 WR and I have to take his overs here. I think the Bucs will air it plenty tonight anyway and despite the risk of him being ‘off form’ he only has to be half decent in the match for this bet to win. Good luck all :ok

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Tampa Bay -20.5 @ 4.00 centrebet First appearance by TB on Monday night for 8 years and expect them to put up a very good performance here. QB Freeman should have a much better game here than last weeks on where he had just 180 passing yards and 2 INTs as the Indy secondary was hit for 364 yards by Rothelisburger last week. Though the Indy defence allowed only 62 rushing yards, Blount is a more effective runner of the ball and like him to get more than 81 yards than he did against Atlanta last week. The Indy pass rush managed to sack Rothelisburger 3 tiems which saw 2 fumbles and was returned for a TD, but this TB OL did not allow any sacks last week and will have worked on this to negate Mathis and Freeney. On defence, TB limited Atlanta to 330 passing yards and and 30 rushing yards while also sacking the QB 4 times, while also getting an INT and 2 fumbles, so they will be blitzing the Indy OL in order to get to an inexperienced QB. While the Indy OL only allowed one sack last week, expect much more pressure here as they will look to run the ball, and if TB manage to stifle the run like they did last week, then hard to see Painter managing to do much in throwing the ball as he has not shown much so far that he is capable of doing so, and this TB secondary is pretty good. Given the occasion, really like a TB blowout here. Record: 9-21 (-8.18)

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Four Picks Tampa Bay -20.5 @ 4.00 :eyes Surprised that Painter did so well but the stats were pushed up with two long TDs (87 yards and 59 yards), as he went 13 / 30 for 282 yards. Secondary was poor for TB. Apart from that, everything else was spot on as the TB offence (both the pass and run) did well while they negated the Indy running game. Record: 9-22 (-9.18)