UEFA Champions League > 28 September

[western skies]

	Wednesday 28 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Zenit Saint-Petersburg v FC Porto (17:00 BST)	3.2	3.4	2.5	100.66 %
	AC Milan v FC Viktoria Plzen (19:45 BST)	1.27	6.6	15	100.56 %
	Arsenal v Olympiacos (19:45 BST)	1.41	5	11	100.01 %
	Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Racing Genk (19:45 BST)	1.34	5.75	13	99.71 %
	FC BATE Borisov v FC Barcelona (19:45 BST)	29	9	1.15	101.52 %
	Olympique Marseille v Borussia Dortmund (19:45 BST)	2.56	3.3	3.05	102.15 %
	Shakhtar Donetsk v APOEL (19:45 BST)	1.44	4.8	8.8	101.64 %
	Valencia v Chelsea (19:45 BST)	3.15	3.35	2.58	100.36 %

[western skies]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Can everyone please note the following: Discussion and disagreement within the betting threads is absolutely fine, but please don't allow it to descend into bickering and petty points-scoring. Any personal abuse will result in a 24 hour ban. Off-topic posts will be moved into here at the discretion of the mods: CL & Europa League forum dumping ground All in-play comments belong in the Livescore thread here: European Livescore > 27-29 September Thanks. :ok

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September BATE @ 29.00 :loon Can't remember the last time a home team was priced so high. This is BATE that drew both games against Juventus few years ago and lost to Real Madrid 0-1 at home and 0-2 away. It's worth taking them on a handicap here.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Shakhtar - Apoel After losing the opening fixture to Porto Shakhtar will be looking for a positive result in this Champions League campaign. The Ukrainian side won 4 games at home last season in the competition before losing to eventual winners Barcelona. They are considered on of the favorites in this well balanced group and prior to Barcelona defeat they were unbeaten in their 15 home games with 11 wins. Moreover, Shakhtar is an attacking side and their games quite often produce goals. Since odds on home win are a bit short in my opinion I will mix it with goals as well. Shakhtar & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 (2 units) William Hill

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Valencia - Chelsea Valencia drew 0-0 against Genk in the opening fixture and lost 1-0 to Sevilla on the weekend. Meanwhile, Chelsea are doing really well in all competitions with only 1 defeat in their last 7 games, which came against Man.United at Old Trafford. Moreover, Chelsea has a good record against Spanish teams. They are unbeaten in their last 6 trips to Spain and with 2 wins and 4 draws with both wins coming against Valencia. So, I don't see them losing here. Arsenal - Olympiacos Arsenal are unbeaten at home against Greek sides and recorded 5 wins and 2 draws. Last time they played Olympiacos in 2009/10 Champions League Arsenal won the fixture 2-0. After their impressive performance against Bolton on the weekend I can see Arsenal winning this one, but think they are worth on a handicap. Chelsea DNB & Arsenal -1 AH @ 2.72 (2 units) Bet365

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Agree with Chelsea here, definitely worth a shot. Watched Valencia little bit against Sevilla and they didn't convince me at all. Those ****s couldn't dominate even when playing 10 vs 9. On the other hand Chelsea is playing better and better. For me this looks like a clash between two teams going in opposite directions right now. Chelsea DNB @ 1.70 for me.

[-Blackadder-]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Shakhtar - Apoel After losing the opening fixture to Porto Shakhtar will be looking for a positive result in this Champions League campaign. The Ukrainian side won 4 games at home last season in the competition before losing to eventual winners Barcelona. They are considered on of the favorites in this well balanced group and prior to Barcelona defeat they were unbeaten in their 15 home games with 11 wins. Moreover, Shakhtar is an attacking side and their games quite often produce goals. Since odds on home win are a bit short in my opinion I will mix it with goals as well. Shakhtar & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 (2 units) William Hill

Mustafa (or anyone else) do you have any team news for this game? I've tried UEFA's website, Shakthar's etc but couldn't find anything. Are Shakthar missing anyone important? If they're at full-strength I'm really considering lumping on a home win here, what with their exceptional home record and the obvious gulf in class between the two sides.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Mustafa (or anyone else) do you have any team news for this game? I've tried UEFA's website, Shakthar's etc but couldn't find anything. Are Shakthar missing anyone important? If they're at full-strength I'm really considering lumping on a home win here, what with their exceptional home record and the obvious gulf in class between the two sides.

Normally you can find this info on uefa website, I guess it will be available tomorrow. Otherwise we can wait for Manho to give us some info.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

If they're at full-strength I'm really considering lumping on a home win here' date=' what with their exceptional home record and the obvious gulf in class between the two sides.[/quote'] Remember that Apoel beat Zenit St Petersburg - and you would think there was a gulf in class there too ;)

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Anyone thinks there's value for Genk to score @ 2,05 ? They played on 23th July and Genk managed to score but lately Leverkusen is going through a bad form conceding 9 goals in last three competitive matches. They both are attacking teams and play open soccer and I think we will see goals form both side eventually Leverkusen winning by a small margin :)

[ValueHunter]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Agree with Chelsea here, definitely worth a shot. Watched Valencia little bit against Sevilla and they didn't convince me at all. Those ****s couldn't dominate even when playing 10 vs 9. On the other hand Chelsea is playing better and better. For me this looks like a clash between two teams going in opposite directions right now. Chelsea DNB @ 1.70 for me.

I wouldn't count on Sevilla game to make conclusions about Valencia. They rested Pablo Hernandez, Soldado and Canales and obviously had an eye on the Chelsea game. It was pretty awkward game because Los Che practically played without a winger in the last 25 mins as Piatti was subbed for some reason and fullbacks Baragan and Mathieu acted as wingers. No wonder they couldn't exploit their advantage. Sure Chelsea are slight favorites but there is no value in backing them IMO. If Valencia repeat their performance against Barca, at least at 80%, Chelsea will have a hard time on Mestalla.

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

I wouldn't count on Sevilla game to make conclusions about Valencia. They rested Pablo Hernandez, Soldado and Canales and obviously had an eye on the Chelsea game. It was pretty awkward game because Los Che practically played without a winger in the last 25 mins as Piatti was subbed for some reason and fullbacks Baragan and Mathieu acted as a wingers. No wonder they couldn't exploit their advantage. Sure Chelsea are slight favorites but there is no value in backing them IMO. If Valencia repeat their performance against Barca, at least at 80%, Chelsea will have a hard time on Mestalla.

I was thinking the same about that ''looking ahead'' factor when watching that Sevilla game.... still it's just annoying when team cannot exploit anything even having one more man on the field. This is not gonna be one sided game, thats for sure, but still I think at the end Chelsea will get the result here, at least I don't see them losing this one. At the same time I understand those people who will bet on Valencia.. they also have some point.

[-Blackadder-]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Remember that Apoel beat Zenit St Petersburg - and you would think there was a gulf in class there too ;)

At home though, and freak results do happen - I didn't watch the game, so I have no idea how much better they were but I doubt they'll get anything from a trip to one of the best sides in Europe. I'll wait for team news of course though.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

At home though, and freak results do happen - I didn't watch the game, so I have no idea how much better they were but I doubt they'll get anything from a trip to one of the best sides in Europe. I'll wait for team news of course though.

Not expecting Apoel to win, but they do have a decent record away to top teams in Europe. In recent years, they've drawn 2-2 at Chelsea, lost 2-1 at Porto and drawn 0-0 at Atletico Madrid - in theory all those sides were a class above Apoel. They just seem to raise their game. I'd see this one as Shakhtar winning perhaps by one or two goals - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/cyprus/apoel-nicosia/ http://www.soccerway.com/teams/ukraine/joint-stock-company-fc-shakhtar-donetsk/

[GreekExperts]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September ARSENAL-OLYMPIACOS PICK:ARSENAL-1.25 odds:1.93 Pinnacle Champions League,Fixture2 Group F Stadium Emirates,Capacity 60.355 Arsenal missings:djourou,benayoun,wilshere,vermaelen, squillaci,diaby(injured). Olympiacos missings:fetfatzidis,maniatis,yeste. We all know the problems of arsenal with the losses of some important players this summer and with many injuries,a situation that led in a very disappointing start,the worst of last decades but still remains a very good team and at the lat two games shown some signs of improvement. Arsenal finally made a win for premier league with 3-0 against bolton,played well in some moments of the game and now with better morale wants another important win for champions league after the away draw at dortmund. Olympiacos despite the last win against ergotelis with 2-3,continues to worry the people around the team and the fans as its obvious that the team need time to find rhythm and to play better. So far the team looks slow enough without connection between the lines and also defensive problems especially at set pieces. The most european teams find it difficult to follow the rhythm of english teams and for a greek team,especially in this condition will be even more difficult. Arsenal has 9 wins and a draw at last 10 home games for champions league with the impressive 29-4 goals while olympiacos against english teams has played 7 times away for all competitions with the embarrassing 0 win and 7 losses with 1-24 goals and even the numbers dont play football we can see how difficult will be for olympiacos to take something from this match. We rate the teams in a very different level,olympiacos looks unprepared yet and even that arsenal,weaker than previous years is capable to make a win maybe in a comfort way and we are risk on that.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Zenit - Porto Odds on Zenit look really good and I would have backed them if it was not for they poor performance against Portuguese sides and Porto's impressive record against Russian teams away where they won 100% of their games and this can't be ignored. However, Zenit is strong at home and Porto is not the same as last season, but still there is a bet I like here. Zenit tend to score most of their goals early in the game when playing at home. In the previous seasons they have scored most of their goals during home games quite early in the game, sometimes even in the first 10-15 minutes. Statistics for their last 5 home games 4-0 against Tomsk; Goals: 4, 23, 43 and 54 mins 2-0 against Dinamo Bryansk; Goals 20 and 45 mins 5-0 against Krasnodar; Goals: 24, 30, 79, 85 and 90 mins 1-1 against Amkar; Goal: 51 mins; 1-0 against Spartak Nalchik; Goal: 23 mins Last season in the Champions League qualifying they beat Unirea and Auxerre at home by the same scoreline 1-0 and goals were scored on 33rd and 3rd minutes respectively. They also scored in the first half in all of their home games in last season's Europa League Group stages, Round of 32 and Round of 16 where they were eliminated by Twente. Time of 1st Zenit Goal: Up to and Including Half Time @ 2.25 (5 units) William Hill

[pinballmad]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Mustafa (or anyone else) do you have any team news for this game? I've tried UEFA's website, Shakthar's etc but couldn't find anything. Are Shakthar missing anyone important? If they're at full-strength I'm really considering lumping on a home win here, what with their exceptional home record and the obvious gulf in class between the two sides.

Ukranians are missing both their central defenders, Cypriots with full squad, as far as i know. Sahtjor looked short to me to start with, as I can't see them winning 7 from 10, and I'd wait to see how they will form the back 4 before placing any bets. BTS looks like the logical choice atm.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Arsenal are a steal at that price @ 1.4 with PaddyPower. I had them at the weekend when they were about 1.44 to beat Bolton. The season before, they were 1.27 to win that game, and struggled. On Saturday, I felt they won fairly comfortably. Arsenal played Olympiacos in 2009, and if memory serves they battered them for 90 minutes before scoring two late goals. They were about 1.3 that night, and I think this time around too much emphasis has been put on the troubles Arsenal have been groing through. I'd expect after their stuttering start that they'll gradually regain a bit of form and start some momentum up. Especially with the additional signings. Gervinho just looks a real handful right now, and if they can get him to use his head more they could have a real player on their hands. Olympiacos are generally pretty poor away from home in Europe, and have only had one decent season in 2007/08.

[IAmGooner]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Wenger's press conference today revealed that Walcott and Gervinho are out with little 'niggles', same with Koscielny, he doesnt want to take chances with any of those as we go to Spurs on Sunday. We already have Wilshere out, Vermaelen, Diaby, Benayoun. So I would expect us to line-up like this...... --------------------------- Szczesny --------- Sagna - Mertesacker - Djourou - Gibbs/Santos ---------------------------- Song ----------------------- Arteta - Ramsey -- Park/Chamberlain/Rosicky ------------- Arshavin ------------------------ Van Persie So I'd be hesitant to back us at a short price tbh, especially without the pace of Gervinho and Walcott in attack. Djourou has been pants for months and looks edgy everytime he gets the ball so I'm worried about him playing. Midfield is fine with Arteta and Song playing well. Arshavin is often capable of a match-winning performance and does like these European nights at home so hopefully he shows up. We have a little problem on the right though, watched Park in the Carling Cup and he doesn't look ready to make an impact yet, Chamberlain is still a kid with huge potential so I'm not sure if Wenger will throw him in for a CL game, my guess is he'll go safe and play Rosicky in there instead. I don't see Olympiakos posing us much threat going forward, last time they came to the Emirates they set out for the draw and I see a similar pattern emerging in this one. I'm gonna play a safer unders line as I don't see us romping to victory here, and I don't see Olympiakos breaching us too often. Stake returned if there are 3 goals exactly. Arsenal vs Olympiakos UNDER 3 goals AH @ 1.650 (Bet365:8pts) I'm also gonna take Valencia on the h'cap at home to Chelsea. Impressed with Valencia so far this season and with the job Emery is doing there. I do think they are slightly overpriced at 3.00 to Chelsea's 2.50 tbh, would have the odds a little bit closer than that. Valencia have started the season strongly, and have quality in the side with Soldado, Pablo, Banega, Canales, I would expect them to press Chelsea hard as they did vs Barca. Villas-Boas is slowly trying to turn Chelsea around and play a more continental style, they've started the season in solid fashion but I would still expect problems for them in the Mestalla. Valencia +0.25 AH is my call here as I see a draw minimum for the home side. Valencia +0.25 vs Chelsea @ 1.80 (Bet365:6pts) GL!.............:hope

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September (Re. Arsenal v Olympiakos)

I'm gonna play a safer unders line as I don't see us romping to victory here, and I don't see Olympiakos breaching us too often. Stake returned if there are 3 goals exactly.

This suggests there is value in backing Arsenal clean sheet at evens then?

[IAmGooner]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

(Re. Arsenal v Olympiakos) This suggests there is value in backing Arsenal clean sheet at evens then?

I don't see Olympiakos doing much in attack, but tbh you would still have to be a brave man to put money on us keeping clean-sheets....;). But saying that, I would be more confident about us defending relatively well against the weaker European sides in the group stages than average Premier League teams who lump balls in at every opportunity.

[Dylan]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Just the one I think for tomorrow; AC Milan vs Plzen – under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 at Stan James (2.5 units) I’ve reasonably confident that Milan will win this game but I don’t think they need or indeed will do it in style. With the number of players they have out they just need to muddle through and pick up points when and where they can. The players that they have out are some of their more creative ones as well (Pato, Robinho & Boateng) so they lack the creativity to play as quick and dynamically as they were at times last season. At the moment they are relying on set pieces or pot shots from the edge of the area to get their goals. Against Catania (1-0 win) these tactics were evident and I expect to see the same again here. El Shaarawy, a more enterprising forward is not even in the squad, and I don’t expect Ibra to start so Cassano is likely to be the focal point of the attack and he likes to come deep, leaving nobody to lead the line. Additionally with a Serie A match against Juventus at the weekend I’m sure Allegri will have an eye on that if and assuming they can get a goal in the first hour of this match, I think he might look to make a couple of changes and see out the game without any new injuries. Despite plenty of injuries in attack, they still remain strong in defence, with Van Bommel infront of the likes of Silva & Nesta I would hope they will see off any threats Plzen have to offer, but I’m not expecting Plzen to do that much attacking anyway. There were actually quite a few bets I liked the look of for this game. You can get odds of 1.91 for only Milan to score, and odds of around 4.0 for Milan to win by 1 goal and the odds are similar for a 2 goal win. Went with this one though as it covers the chance of a 0-0 :hope

[H1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September I'd be looking on backing Marseille in some way, but I'd appreciate some more info on them, maybe Atko would like to share his thoughts? :) I favour Marseille in this game as I think Dortmund are not doing well at the moment. They lost their flowing style they presented last season and have been poor away from home this campaign. Yes they won last time against Mainz (who are so poor themselves atm) but thanks to rather fortunate 2 goals. I watched this one, Dortmund had a majority of possession but didn't create many clear goalscoring situations. Therefore I think they won't have an easy life in Marseille, whom I remember to be rather a solid side defensively. But is Marseille capable of winning?

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September BATE – Barcelona I can’t understand why Barcelona is @ 1.15 away from home. So far this season they drew both their away games in La Liga and if you check their away results in Champions League last season they won by more than 2 goals only once against Panathinaikos when they won 3-0. I think BATE are considered outsiders here just because of their name. Several seasons ago when they were drawn against Real and Juventus in the same group they lost to Real 0-2 at home, while drawing both their games against Juventus 2-2 at home and 1-1 away. I really can’t see BATE losing this game by more than 1 goal and it won’t surprise we if they manage a draw here. BATE +2 AH @ 2.20 (2 units) Bet365

[H1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

BATE – Barcelona I can’t understand why Barcelona is @ 1.15 away from home. So far this season they drew both their away games in La Liga and if you check their away results in Champions League last season they won by more than 2 goals only once against Panathinaikos when they won 3-0. I think BATE are considered outsiders here just because of their name. Several seasons ago when they were drawn against Real and Juventus in the same group they lost to Real 0-2 at home, while drawing both their games against Juventus 2-2 at home and 1-1 away. I really can’t see BATE losing this game by more than 1 goal and it won’t surprise we if they manage a draw here. BATE +2 AH @ 2.20 (2 units) Bet365

maybe Barca to concede @2 is worth considering BATE will have partisan crowd behind them and may well sneak one goal e.g. from a set piece or on the counter Barca are not perfect away from home in CL and additionally Guardiola may play his new 3-4-3 formation, which may create space for BATE attackers if they get to the ball (probably somewhere i 2nd half when they are 2-3 goals down)

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Anyone thinks there's value for Genk to score @ 2' date='05 ? They played on 23th July and Genk managed to score but lately Leverkusen is going through a bad form conceding 9 goals in last three competitive matches. They both are attacking teams and play open soccer and I think we will see goals form both side eventually Leverkusen winning by a small margin :)[/quote'] After Basel scored 3 last night at United, why rule out Genk scoring at Leverkusen?

[sambo1983]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September I think a draw between BATE and Barcelona is wishful, fair enough they held Juve to a 2-2 but that and the Real Madrid game were back in 2008. They've conceded goals at home to minnows like FH & Ventspils. After watching Barce demolish Athletico on saturday I think they'll be too strong for them, regardless of the partisan crowd. I'm gonna go for a 4 or 5-0

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September

Zenit - Porto Odds on Zenit look really good and I would have backed them if it was not for they poor performance against Portuguese sides and Porto's impressive record against Russian teams away where they won 100% of their games and this can't be ignored. However, Zenit is strong at home and Porto is not the same as last season, but still there is a bet I like here. Zenit tend to score most of their goals early in the game when playing at home. In the previous seasons they have scored most of their goals during home games quite early in the game, sometimes even in the first 10-15 minutes. Statistics for their last 5 home games 4-0 against Tomsk; Goals: 4, 23, 43 and 54 mins 2-0 against Dinamo Bryansk; Goals 20 and 45 mins 5-0 against Krasnodar; Goals: 24, 30, 79, 85 and 90 mins 1-1 against Amkar; Goal: 51 mins; 1-0 against Spartak Nalchik; Goal: 23 mins Last season in the Champions League qualifying they beat Unirea and Auxerre at home by the same scoreline 1-0 and goals were scored on 33rd and 3rd minutes respectively. They also scored in the first half in all of their home games in last season's Europa League Group stages, Round of 32 and Round of 16 where they were eliminated by Twente. Time of 1st Zenit Goal: Up to and Including Half Time @ 2.25 (5 units) William Hill

The early goals by Zenit were well covered in the East European Threads by KavkaZ, prior to the Tomsk game. As I got involved, I watched it all. Zenit are fast, good quick passing and good moving without ball. The finishing got sloppy in the second half, with a bit more concentration hosts could have scored 7-8. Point is that they also allowed in the second half easy chances for Tom, who do not belong in top league... The question is how relevant are early goals vs Bryansk, Tomsk and Nalchik in a game vs an European powerhouse Porto? I rate Porto among top 10 Euro teams in the recent 25 years, they just never stop delivering. IMO if Porto was in CL last season they were ready for at least a Semi-Final. Won the Euro Cup with so much ease that it was frightening...True, they lost a brilliant Manager, and that Colombian who is pure class. Yet they still got enough class to finish top of this group. Porto will come out for a point. That makes them ever so dangerous, with killer-breaks. Spalletti has to go for a win, after losing in Cyprus. It is not easy to win games vs Porto with his favourite 4-2-3-1, so sooner rather later Zenit will open up - more attacks from hosts, more room for Porto on the break. I am not opposing your pick this time Mustafa, I am as usual opposing your reasoning. Bryansk? Tomsk? Compared to Porto? In fact IF you are right and Zenit score early, I would love for this post - to me this game is Over 2,5 Goals @ 2,075 with bet365. All I need for a pick like this is here - a good attacking home team, that needs badly to win, a brilliant counter-attacking away team... GL

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Somehow this thread is so quiet today. Must be last night? United cost me dearly in different bets and doubles, and I guess so they did to millions of punters. Add to that the City-backers, no wonder many are cautious to post here today...Who will make bookies happy today? Pilzen? APOEL? BATE?

[sportxtipster]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Zenit vs Porto Home side is looking very good and I think that Porto will have big trouble here. Zenit is looking to make a strong performance this season in UCL as they have pretty much same players that are performing very good with the same coach, Spalleti. Porto started already to shake and despite the fact they are a good team, will not have the same performances as last season. Zenit vs Porto home +0.25 AH @ 1.80 with Instant Action Sports