UEFA Champions League > 27 September

[western skies]

	Tuesday 27 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	CSKA Moscow v Internazionale (17:00 BST)	2.65	3.4	2.87	101.93 %
	FC Bayern München v Manchester City (19:45 BST)	2.1	3.6	4	100.40 %
	Manchester United v FC Basel (19:45 BST)	1.18	8.4	21	101.41 %
	Napoli v Villarreal (19:45 BST)	1.8	3.6	5.1	102.94 %
	Olympique Lyonnais v Dinamo Zagreb (19:45 BST)	1.34	5.25	12.5	101.67 %
	Otelul Galati v Benfica (19:45 BST)	7	4	1.62	101.01 %
	Real Madrid v Ajax (19:45 BST)	1.23	7	17	101.47 %
	Trabzonspor v Lille OSC (19:45 BST)	3.05	3.35	2.62	100.81 %

[western skies]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Can everyone please note the following: Discussion and disagreement within the betting threads is absolutely fine, but please don't allow it to descend into bickering and petty points-scoring. Any personal abuse will result in a 24 hour ban. Off-topic posts will be moved into here at the discretion of the mods: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f59/cl-europa-league-forum-dumping-ground-121466/ All in-play comments belong in the Livescore thread here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f59/european-livescore-27-29-september-121740/ Thanks. :ok

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Inter Milan @ 2.05 (0AH) Pinnacle From the first glance it looks like CSKA is overpriced here. These kind of odds I was expecting to see when CSKA was playing in the beginning of the season and Gasperini would be still the coach for Inter. But at this moment situation is different. CSKA has only 2 wins in 9 games. One of the wins was against TomTomsk who are one of the weakest sides in Russian premier league and the other was in the last game against V. Novgorod when they were able to show dominance only when Novgorod was playing with ten men (take in mind that Novgorod played 120 min already on Wednesday). In the first CHL group game against Lile they were very, very lucky to get that draw... Lille completely dominated the game but at the end they conceded because of sleepy defense. Now they have lost their top position in league and there are already some dark clouds over Leonid Slutsky's head, though the last win gave him little bit room for breathing. And of course those neverending injury problems for CSKA doesn't make the things easier for them. As for Inter I think they will get back on a track. Ranieri was one of the best options what they could get and I am pretty sure he will change the tactics and solve their defence problems. Cannot say that they were impressive against Bologna, but they played Ok and got 3 points well deserved, though defense at times looked shaky. What is more important, they finally got a win.... that should give them some confidence back. Not gonna say that Inter will trash them but a tight fight is what i expect ( under an option ?! ) and imo Inter will sneak a win here. Odds are not so bad for the team who is on a way up.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September B.Munich - Man.City Both teams play attacking football and have quality strikers up front. In their domestic leagues both teams recorded solid wins. Man.City beat Everton 2-0 while B.Munich beat B.Leverkusen 3-0. After dropping points at home against Napoli Man.City won't sit in defense and will most likely attack. However, B.Munich is a strong team especially at home so I don't see them defending either. Moreover, B.Munich has an impressive record against English teams with 8 wins and only 1 defeat in 15 games. This game is hard to call, but considering how both sides play I will go for goals in this one. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 (3 units) William Hill

[beer]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Inter Milan @ 2.05 (0AH) Pinnacle From the first glance it looks like CSKA is overpriced here. These kind of odds I was expecting to see when CSKA was playing in the beginning of the season and Gasperini would be still the coach for Inter. But at this moment situation is different. CSKA has only 2 wins in 9 games. One of the wins was against TomTomsk who are one of the weakest sides in Russian premier league and the other was in the last game against V. Novgorod when they were able to show dominance only when Novgorod was playing with ten men (take in mind that Novgorod played 120 min already on Wednesday). In the first CHL group game against Lile they were very, very lucky to get that draw... Lille completely dominated the game but at the end they conceded because of sleepy defense. Now they have lost their top position in league and there are already some dark clouds over Leonid Slutsky's head, though the last win gave him little bit room for breathing. And of course those neverending injury problems for CSKA doesn't make the things easier for them. As for Inter I think they will get back on a track. Ranieri was one of the best options what they could get and I am pretty sure he will change the tactics and solve their defence problems. Cannot say that they were impressive against Bologna, but they played Ok and got 3 points well deserved, though defense at times looked shaky. What is more important, they finally got a win.... that should give them some confidence back. Not gonna say that Inter will trash them but a tight fight is what i expect ( under an option ?! ) and imo Inter will sneak a win here. Odds are not so bad for the team who is on a way up.

100% agree with you and will follow with high stake. overpriced is the right word. :D + i think that this price might drop so my advice is to take it now.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

B.Munich - Man.City Both teams play attacking football and have quality strikers up front. In their domestic leagues both teams recorded solid wins. Man.City beat Everton 2-0 while B.Munich beat B.Leverkusen 3-0. After dropping points at home against Napoli Man.City won't sit in defense and will most likely attack. However, B.Munich is a strong team especially at home so I don't see them defending either. Moreover, B.Munich has an impressive record against English teams with 8 wins and only 1 defeat in 15 games. This game is hard to call, but considering how both sides play I will go for goals in this one. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 (3 units) William Hill

Not sure about this one. I was just looking at Man City's away record in the Europa League in the last few seasons, and it's not particularly impressive. The two teams are packed with attacking talent, but I could see it possibly being a defensive game. Bayern's defence is formidable and if City play it defensively too ... I've got a feeling both managers might be happy with a draw. With four games still to come, City will hope to get enough points to qualify from those.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Not sure about this one. I was just looking at Man City's away record in the Europa League in the last few seasons' date=' and it's not particularly impressive. The two teams are packed with attacking talent, but I could see it possibly being a defensive game. Bayern's defence is formidable and if City play it defensively too ... I've got a feeling both managers might be happy with a draw. With four games still to come, City will hope to get enough points to qualify from those.[/quote'] I see your point, but I don't think B.Munich would want to leave it till the last rounds and would want to secure qualification well in advance.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September I'll probably have some of Man City on a + 0.5 handicap. I was surprised to see them that high really, and I'd make this City side much more equal shots with Munich than they are currently being shown. Reasoning is basically because if you bet on name alone, Bayern Munich should be favourites, but judging the overall picture, City are a pretty strong CL side. Even after a stuttering start to their CL with a not so enthralling opening night draw with Napoli, I feel they may get more joy away from home, where the fans expectation isn't playing a part. If you look at the experience aspect too, City have an almost identical amount of that running through the side.

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Agree about Man City. There was so much hype about them before the group stage began than I thought they will be never priced higher than 3.00 against anyone in group stage. And what do we see now... they are 4.08 at Pinnaclesports. Munich results are really impressive this season. In last 9 games they have 9 wins and haven't conceded even one goal in those games. But if we look little bit deeper then the teams whom they have played against also aren't Man City calliber type. This is actually their first reall Top opponent so far for them in this season (I am not counting friendlies here because motivation is totally different in these games). Maybe Bayern will win, but I will take my chances with Manchester City (+0.5AH) @ 1.95 This is good clip what shows the Ribbery reaction about ManCity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMq7klUuJXQ

[beer]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Agree about Man City. There was so much hype about them before the group stage began than I thought they will be never priced higher than 3.00 against anyone in group stage. And what do we see now... they are 4.08 at Pinnaclesports. Munich results are really impressive this season. In last 9 games they have 9 wins and haven't conceded even one goal in those games. But if we look little bit deeper then the teams whom they have played against also aren't Man City calliber type. This is actually their first reall Top opponent so far for them in this season (I am not counting friendlies here because motivation is totally different in these games). Maybe Bayern will win, but I will take my chances with Manchester City (+0.5AH) @ 1.95 This is good clip what shows the Ribbery reaction about ManCity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMq7klUuJXQ

after seeing thoes kind of videos you will alllways want to see City winning by 4 goals!!! i will stay away from this match , because i want to enjoy the best game in this round.

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

after seeing thoes kind of videos you will alllways want to see City winning by 4 goals!!! i will stay away from this match , because i want to enjoy the best game in this round.

This is a tricky game to bet on, but those odds are just too damn appealing to miss them. Basically oddsmakers are giving City a 25% chance of winning.... with all due respect for Bayern , that is just crazy. The bottom line here is..... this is Champions League - anybody can win anybody. And ManCity is definitely capable to do that. Pure value bet for me.

[Alexc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September I'm not so crazy about City. Bayern's form is excellent right now, and there have been some particularly impressive results, 7-0 Frieburg, 2-0 Villareal and 3-0 Leverkusen. City won on Saturday, but they're not looking as impressive as at the start of the season. Also, not so crazy about goals. Bayern are very capable of being in a 0-0, despite first impressions of them.

[ThusPrider]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September The bundesliga is quite an inexperienced league and although im not an expert, Bayern's performance is very inconsistant. City will feel they need at least a draw here to give them a better chance to qualify. This is a tough group and this clash will be key. City's players are hungry for action and will impress. City win 3/1 = FAT value.

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

, 7-0 Frieburg, 2-0 Villareal and 3-0 Leverkusen.

I wouldn't rate those bundesliga results very high. Yes, they are impressive in Bundesliga but the level of those Bundesliga teams aren't as good as Premier league top teams. We saw what happened when Leverkusen went to Stamford... they showed nothing and for Chelsea that was another routine victory. Villareal was/is in slump when they played against Bayern then the result actually didn't surprise me a lot. This game will actually test who Munich really are... if they are gonna win against City, then hands down. But still I wouldn't be surprised to see 0-0 here.....so +0.5 sounds perfect for me.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Bayern's form is excellent right now, and there have been some particularly impressive results, 7-0 Frieburg, 2-0 Villareal and 3-0 Leverkusen.

Worth probably not confusing league form with anything else :ok Beating sides that are one or two classes below them in matches that are played under different circumstances is not all that huge a factor for me. Never has been because you need to take each game into context.

[BIG X]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I'm not so crazy about City. Bayern's form is excellent right now, and there have been some particularly impressive results, 7-0 Frieburg, 2-0 Villareal and 3-0 Leverkusen. City won on Saturday, but they're not looking as impressive as at the start of the season. Also, not so crazy about goals. Bayern are very capable of being in a 0-0, despite first impressions of them.

I'm also leaning towards Bayern. Since City thrashed us at the lane the performance levels seem to have dropped a bit. Not sure if all is well behind the scences with players like Tevez and Johnson not really getting a look in. Mancini has got a real job on trying to keep that squad happy and despite the obvious strength of the squad I think they might just come unstuck in the Champions league.

[Alexc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Bundesliga's the third best league in Europe, not too far behind Spain, so I wouldn't discount the fact Bayern have won six straight there, scoring twenty-one and conceding zero, so readily, boys. I agree with the poster who says City may struggle in the CL too. The Premier League is target number one, without a doubt, and I just wonder if they'll have the concentration levels needed to get a result at Bayern. Defensively they're looking weaker too, which is obviously down to a more attacking intent this season.

[sambo1983]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September I reckon the City game will be a cracker, Bayern usually have high scoring games at home in Europe (not a 0-0 since 09), and City like to pile forward, especially away from home. I'm gonna buy on the total goals I reckon, although there's obviously an element of risk there. Any other games catch the eye as being high-scoring....?!:gimme

[DannyDyersActingAbility]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September very keen to hear peoples thoughts on Inter at Moscow, I think Inter could be some real value due to Ranieri coming in and their domestic win last week seems to help turn the players around. CSKA did really well to come back from 2-0 down against Lille however and I'm curious to know what their performances at home are like. I can't see past Inter just due to the shot in the arm that the new coach will have provided however the timeframe may be too soon for an overwhelming improvement.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Munich results are really impressive this season. In last 9 games they have 9 wins and haven't conceded even one goal in those games. But if we look little bit deeper then the teams whom they have played against also aren't Man City calliber type. This is actually their first reall Top opponent so far for them in this season

I think you should take into account the result at Villarreal (Bayern won 0-2). Before that game, the story was about Villarreal's fantastic home record in Europe. I don't think they'd lost a home European tie for years (in fact think they'd WON eight in a row). And Bayern hadn't won in Spain for years either - http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007578/prematch/background/index.html http://www.soccerway.com/teams/spain/villarreal-club-de-futbol/ By contrast, Man City apparently disappointed at home to Napoli, and their away record in Europe last season was mediocre at best - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/manchester-city-football-club/ I think the home/draw/away odds are about right. I'd make Bayern favourites, but of course City have a chance of a win with their strikers. I think both these teams will qualify from the group (and both have a chance of winning the tournament). I could well be wrong, but the game has the smell of a low-scoring game to me, and could well be a draw - say 0-0 or 1-1.

[sajtion]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September my gut feeling says man city will take this and the odds are absolute give away. i'm not taking anything away from bayern they have had amazing start to their league and look a team unbreakable at the moment but they way i see it its going to be open attacking match and that will give man city plenty of breathing space. most of bayern creative play comes from ribery and robben but they can sometimes flatter where as if you look at man city silva and nasri in midfield who i think can produce more and dzeko who rocked bundesliga previously you got a quality there that should be more even then the odds suggest. man city is a must have at 3.57

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September First thoughts: Otelul vs. Benfica Bet of the week for me. No way Otelul has even the smallest chance here. They were champions in Romania last year but since then, they didn't accomplish much else. No important transfers or individuals bought to improve their squad; The club is relying too much on their coach Dorinel Munteanu who took this team flying so high but without investing I don't see him keeping the squad at this level anymore. Proof is their poor start of the season, losing points to newly promoted teams and now they are placed on 8th with only 6 goals scored so far. They playing from three to three days in League 1, Cup and Europe and for a team which is no level for Europe, the players will not be fit and ready for taking a giant as Benfica. After drawing to Manchester United ( A good result IMO ) I expect Benfica to put out a strong squad and grab all three points here in Romania without any emotions. I think Benfica will win by 2 or 3 goals tomorrow. Don't see Otelul getting any points from this group, maybe just from the encounter with Basel at their home ground but that will be pointless. Don't know exact squad which benfica will take to Romania to face Otelul but if they going to get the win and take it very seriously even if Otelul is underdogs I'm pretty sure we will see an away win. Odds will drop until tomorrow I think so as fast as we have a team news skeleton we shall go for Benfica. If I would have 10.000 Euros I would bet all of them on Benfica that confident I am, something which I would probably never do again xD Away Win is priced at 1,50 - 1,55 and Away -1 is @ 2,33.

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I think the home/draw/away odds are about right. I'd make Bayern favourites, but of course City have a chance of a win with their strikers. I think both these teams will qualify from the group (and both have a chance of winning the tournament). I could well be wrong, but the game has the smell of a low-scoring game to me, and could well be a draw - say 0-0 or 1-1.

I do agree that Bayern should be favorites in this one, but would you give them more than 50% chance of winning (oddsmakers odds) ?! Personally I wouldn't. If Bayern will win, I will have no regret that I took a bet on City. This is just value bet. And as we know - value does not always win. It will pay out over the very long term.

[gabymnk]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

First thoughts: Otelul vs. Benfica Bet of the week for me. No way Otelul has even the smallest chance here. They were champions in Romania last year but since then, they didn't accomplish much else. No important transfers or individuals bought to improve their squad; The club is relying too much on their coach Dorinel Munteanu who took this team flying so high but without investing I don't see him keeping the squad at this level anymore. Proof is their poor start of the season, losing points to newly promoted teams and now they are placed on 8th with only 6 goals scored so far. They playing from three to three days in League 1, Cup and Europe and for a team which is no level for Europe, the players will not be fit and ready for taking a giant as Benfica. After drawing to Manchester United ( A good result IMO ) I expect Benfica to put out a strong squad and grab all three points here in Romania without any emotions. I think Benfica will win by 2 or 3 goals tomorrow. Don't see Otelul getting any points from this group, maybe just from the encounter with Basel at their home ground but that will be pointless. Don't know exact squad which benfica will take to Romania to face Otelul but if they going to get the win and take it very seriously even if Otelul is underdogs I'm pretty sure we will see an away win. Odds will drop until tomorrow I think so as fast as we have a team news skeleton we shall go for Benfica. If I would have 10.000 Euros I would bet all of them on Benfica that confident I am, something which I would probably never do again xD Away Win is priced at 1,50 - 1,55 and Away -1 is @ 2,33.

I also think that Benfica is thursdays BANKER. I also see huge value in odds around 1.55. After the poor performance in Basel, Otelul continued their poor results with a draw 0-0 and a 1-0 win against teams ranked low in the league. Benfica will most definitely win this one easily and Otelul will surely not score.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I also think that Benfica is thursdays BANKER. I also see huge value in odds around 1.55. After the poor performance in Basel' date=' Otelul continued their poor results with a draw 0-0 and a 1-0 win against teams ranked low in the league. Benfica will most definitely win this one easily and Otelul will surely not score.[/quote'] There is no such thing as banker and don't forget that Benfica will play away. Otelul managed to score away against Basel, so why are you so confident that they won't score at home. Romanian teams have decent record in CL over the last years, including Cluj and Unirea. I think they might be able to snatch a draw here.

[ValueHunter]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September For those who consider Inter as a value bet. Bare in mind that Snejder, Stankovic and Maicon are out due to injures. Forlan is cup-tied and also can not participate. Sulley Muntari is not included in Inter's CL roster, thus Ranieri will be forced to field pretty inexperienced midline. P.S. Here is the squad Ranieri named for Moscow: Goalkeepers: 1 Julio Cesar, 12 Luca Castellazzi, 21 Paolo Orlandoni; Defenders: 6 Lucio, 16 Luca Caldirola, 23 Andrea Ranocchia, 25 Walter Samuel, 26 Cristian Chivu, 37 Davide Faraoni, 42 Jonathan, 55 Yuto Nagatomo; Midfielders: 4 Javier Zanetti, 11 Ricky Alvarez, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 20 Joel Obi, 29 Philippe Coutinho, 48 Lorenzo Crisetig, 94 Andrea Romanò; Forwards: 7 Giampaolo Pazzini, 22 Diego Milito, 28 Mauro Zarate I can see Thiago Motta is also missing in the midfield.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I think you should take into account the result at Villarreal (Bayern won 0-2). Before that game' date=' the story was about Villarreal's fantastic home record in Europe. I don't think they'd lost a home European tie for years (in fact think they'd WON eight in a row). And Bayern hadn't won in Spain for years either[/quote'] Again, it's all about context. Villarreal played in the Europa League last season where they faced the likes of Salonika, Dinamo Zagreb and Bruges. Is it really worth judging a side based on "form" versus opposition that is of much lesser quality. The season before that they were in the Europa league as well, and were beaten by Salzburg at home and faced similar weak sides. Munich are no different. Why base any bet on form versus weaker opposition :unsure This game by it's very nature means it will likely be played differently tactically, and both sides will be set up differently also. If Munich play the way they do against the Freiburgs or the Leverkusen's (who have an atrocious record against Bayern) of the Bundesliga, they will get opened up.

[gabymnk]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

There is no such thing as banker and don't forget that Benfica will play away. Otelul managed to score away against Basel, so why are you so confident that they won't score at home. Romanian teams have decent record in CL over the last years, including Cluj and Unirea. I think they might be able to snatch a draw here.

Otelul managed to score at Basel because they were facing a team that was as poor as they were.Otelul is unrecognizable from the team that won the championship and is on the brink of dismantling because of conflict in the upper management(money as a cause ). A comparation between today's Otelul and UCL teams Unirea and CFR is very simillar with a comparation between Norwich and Chelsea.

[dj rob]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Bayern - Mancity I think that odds are set correctly. Mancity still has to prove that they can compete on a higher European level. Bayern this season is so different from last season. They don´t allow many chances and are still very dangerous in attack. City will be glad to reach a draw here. It has been mentioned before that Bayern has a good home record against English opposition. The under @ 2,0 might be an option, but I will probably stay away from this match since values are hard to find in this game. Napoli @ 1,769 (Pinnacle) vs. Villareal looks better. Napoli is strong at home and Villareal nothing special anymore (had a bad start and aren´t too dangerous away from home). In February the EL game was 0-0 at Napoli, but Italians are always unmotivated in EL.

[aka haldan]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I wouldn't rate those bundesliga results very high. Yes, they are impressive in Bundesliga but the level of those Bundesliga teams aren't as good as Premier league top teams. We saw what happened when Leverkusen went to Stamford... they showed nothing and for Chelsea that was another routine victory. Villareal was/is in slump when they played against Bayern then the result actually didn't surprise me a lot. This game will actually test who Munich really are... if they are gonna win against City, then hands down. But still I wouldn't be surprised to see 0-0 here.....so +0.5 sounds perfect for me.

I’m not arguing with your choice here, as I haven’t decided yet which way to go. I feel the outcome of this match will depend in a considerable proportion on City’s approach, so I will wait to find out what Mancini intends to do. During the important matches from last season, he opted for the 4-3-3 module, with that solid midfield line consisting of Toure, Barry and De Jong, while the situation is quite different now. It seems Mancini’s appeal for attack has increased in the meantime. Practically, I want to see if he gets back to his old defensive habits for this match. Still, the main reason for my post is that I believe you make a wrong assumption by relating the Bavarian outfit with the general level of Bundesliga. In its majority, this is the same team which played the CHL final in Madrid 2 years ago. From the possible starters, there are only 5 new players: Kroos, Gustavo and Rafinha, Neuer (the national team goalkeeper, CHL semifinalist last season with Schalke) and Boateng (he was in South-Africa last year). Add to these a coach with a huge experience, including at the highest international level. So, with all due respect, I think that, when analyzing this game, we should consider City will face a top European team. Good luck.