sportxtipster Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Hi Chaps, This is my first post on Punters Lounge after reading threads on the forum with great interest for some time. My method of selecting bets is mainly based on rating teams in each division into 3 categories (ABC) and looking at the form that each team has had against this type of opposition over the last 2 or 3 seasons. For example I have tonight's game as Norwich C against Sunderland B. I keep spreadsheets to track: FT results, HT results, goals, corners and bookings. Norwich v Sunderland With Norwich being newly promoted the only relevant game for them was at home to Stoke which they drew 1-1. Sunderland have played away to C graded teams 16 times with the only game this season, the 0-0 draw with Swansea. The overall record is 7 home, 5 draws, 5 away. Games have tended to be tight with 11 unders and 6 overs with few goals goals scored particularly in the first half. When Sunderland have won they have also been leading at HT on all 5 occasions. Recommended bets: Under 2.5 goals 3pts Betfair current odds 1.85 0-0 HT 1pt Betfair current odds 1.96 0-1 HT 0.5pt Betfair current odds 6.00 Away HT/FT 0.5pt Betfair current odds 6.00 welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September :welcome to PL Oasis74. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September QPR - Aston Villa draw @ 3.38 :D Got lucky in the end with Dunne's own goal but QPR deserved to get a point out of this game. August picks: 23-34 (+7.41) Sunderland @ 3.13 pinnacle Norwich got their first win over Bolton last weekend but believe they lose this one as Sunderland scored a pretty strong 4-0 win over Stoke. What i like about Sunderland is their back 4 of Ricahrdson, Brown, Bramble and O'Shea, who have plenty of experience, and though the middle two can make mistakes, this Norwich attack is not that good. Sunderland have Bendtner and Sessegnon up front, who can be a handful on their day and with Norwich conceding in each of their 5 games so far, like Sunderland to score while not so sure Norwich can (though they have scored in 4 of their 5 games, this Sunderland defence has clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 games with Chelsea scoring in the other game). Also, Norwich have conceded penalties in each of their first 5 EPL games, so this could be another way that Sunderland scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September QPR v Aston Villa +0.25: 1.975 bet365 Iv'e watched qpr's last 2 games and been very impressed. As iv'e said previously, i do worry about them if they get a couple of injuries to key players but for the time being, they are looking good. That said, I just can't have them at 5/4 against villa. Villa fans haven't immediately taken to mcleish and Villa aren't looking great. But i still think they are more than equal to the r's and I was expecting a +0 handicap here. Rangers are still novices in the prem and think the value is with villa. Half stakes win due to a late goal. But to be fair to QPR, they were well worth the point and the penalty was very harsh. On to a similar bet tonight... Norwich v Sunderland +0.25 (AH): 1.80 @ Bet365 Norwich are yet to win a home game yet (although it is still very early!) so I was pleasantly surprised to see Sunderland on a + handicap here. I watched the Norwich game against Stoke and have to say I wasn't too impressed with them. They did play well away at Chelsea and got a good result at Bolton though. That said, I worry about their goal scoring ability in the top flight. Things don't seem quite right at Sunderland to me with so many in's and out's and the bizzare loaning out of Gyan. But Bruce still has some good players up there and they are an established mid table team. They had a great 4-0 win at home in their last game against Stoke so if they have got their shooting boots on again, they should get on the score sheet tonight. The pressure will be on Norwich to get the win but i think Sunderland will be experienced enough and have enough quality to get something out of the game. With the +0.25 on my side i'm more than happy to get involved as personally, I would have had this at a level ball handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Personally i think Sunderland are overpriced tonight. I think the addition of Bentdner to the squad can only be a positive for Sunderland, personally i dont like Bendtner but that was at the top level, at this lower level i think he has the chance to be prolific. Norwich will be a tough enough game for Sunderland but i think there is more quality in Sunderland's squad. Norwich did beat Bolton away but i think Bolton are very poor and they went down to 10 men early in the game also and even then Norwich were lucky to hang on. They lost to West Brom at home last home game which is a very poor result. Personally i think Sunderland have had a fairly tough start to the season fixture-wise with Liverpool away, Newcastle at home (big derby), Swansea away, Chelsea at home and Stoke at home, no easy games there. I think Sunderland will have grown in confidence from their last game where they beat Stoke 4-0 and i can see Sunderland beating a mediocre Norwich side tonight. Sunderland HT/FT @ 9/2 Boylesports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Norwich - Sunderland After doing alot of thinking and trying to get some value out the game, id come to conclude the chances at 36.5/30.5/33. After looking at the odds I feel there is thin value in the draw and sunderland win. Sunderland +0 should be priced at 36.5/33=1.1, but found at 1.25. So my bet for today will be sunderland +0 @ 1.25. Sunderland are an experienced team and has got some decent players over the summer. Norwich will have two great weapons at carrow road - Their commitment and the noise created by their fans. I feel sunderland are very good front runners and will keep the lead should they take it at 1 - 0 (thinking of the stoke game), and are capable of teasing the opposition and perhaps go on to score a second on the break. Norwich on the other hand will be playing a typical championship style football. not much qualify but taking advantage with simple set pieces and delivering the ball into the box. The crowd will get behind them and they could win, but their odds are abit too short to back. Long run the value is in the sunderland half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Going to have a bet in the goalscorer market also. I think Sebastian Larsson is a nice price, having scored a couple of goals already this season for Sunderland and has a wicked shot and always tries to get forward, takes a good free kick also. Seb Larsson First Goalscorer - E/W @ 16/1 Bet365 Unlimited places 1/3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Personally i think Sunderland are overpriced tonight. I think the addition of Bentdner to the squad can only be a positive for Sunderland, personally i dont like Bendtner but that was at the top level, at this lower level i think he has the chance to be prolific. Norwich will be a tough enough game for Sunderland but i think there is more quality in Sunderland's squad. Norwich did beat Bolton away but i think Bolton are very poor and they went down to 10 men early in the game also and even then Norwich were lucky to hang on. They lost to West Brom at home last home game which is a very poor result. Personally i think Sunderland have had a fairly tough start to the season fixture-wise with Liverpool away, Newcastle at home (big derby), Swansea away, Chelsea at home and Stoke at home, no easy games there. I think Sunderland will have grown in confidence from their last game where they beat Stoke 4-0 and i can see Sunderland beating a mediocre Norwich side tonight. Sunderland HT/FT @ 9/2 Boylesports I like the look of this bet too. As ive said i feel sunderland are front runners and are good at applying the pressure when ahead. Norwich will attack bravely in front of their fans, but will get caught when sunderland soak up the pressure and play back at them. Im even greedier, i feel if sunderland leads at half time, they will have a very good chance to net another goal. Sure, it can end 0-0 or 1-1 the second half, but 10/1 for sunderland to win both halves is value in the long term. Norwich could take the lead early and apply pressure, but sunderland will still be in the game and will play back at norwich. Sure norwich can run away with it at 2 - 0 then maybe 3 - 0, but this is all about weighing up the chances to find value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Thats my bet doomed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September HT 1 - 0 Sunderland looks s$it , they maybe have the ball but they are not able to create anything , lets hope that they can get atleast a draw:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Well well, my 10/1 shot is down teh drain, but that was if sunderland took an first half lead... prolly less than 1 in 3 but 10/1 chances ive gotta get it right in 10 attempts to break even. My sunderland -0 @ 1.25 has still got a decent chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Sunderland = :puke i just dont understand how can a team that won 4 - 0 against Stoke now lose against some kind of outsiders... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
americanpunter Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September This is my first time watching Sunderland. Stephane Sessegnon is one of the worst players I've ever watched Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September This is my first time watching Sunderland. Stephane Sessegnon is one of the worst players I've ever watched + leftback Richardson ++this is not the first time when i lost money on Sunderland so i will add them to my blacklist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharQ Bettor Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September You think it'll end 2-1 but would go for the unders? :unsure I'm on the over 2.5 goals @ 1.91, decent odds for an attacking direct home team versus a vulnerable away team with a goal threat. Full Time: 2-1 :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Half stakes win due to a late goal. But to be fair to QPR, they were well worth the point and the penalty was very harsh. On to a similar bet tonight... Norwich v Sunderland +0.25 (AH): 1.80 @ Bet365 Norwich are yet to win a home game yet (although it is still very early!) so I was pleasantly surprised to see Sunderland on a + handicap here. I watched the Norwich game against Stoke and have to say I wasn't too impressed with them. They did play well away at Chelsea and got a good result at Bolton though. That said, I worry about their goal scoring ability in the top flight. Things don't seem quite right at Sunderland to me with so many in's and out's and the bizzare loaning out of Gyan. But Bruce still has some good players up there and they are an established mid table team. They had a great 4-0 win at home in their last game against Stoke so if they have got their shooting boots on again, they should get on the score sheet tonight. The pressure will be on Norwich to get the win but i think Sunderland will be experienced enough and have enough quality to get something out of the game. With the +0.25 on my side i'm more than happy to get involved as personally, I would have had this at a level ball handicap. :sad This never looked like coming in on the night. Well done to Norwich. Sunderland were simply woeful and showed no desire to get something from the game. Onwards and upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Sunderland @ 3.13 :( They were poor and were shown up by Norwich August picks: 23-35 (+6.41) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.