Tennis 19-25 September

[homunculus]

could not wait for the new thread, so started it myself. two 250 ATP events this week Moselle Open in Metz, France, Indoor hard -------------------------------------------- A tournament where Gilles Simon made his great comeback last year after his right knee 2010 injury. Last year title won by Simon that did beat Micha Zverev in the final. Simon is not playing this year , Zverev is in qualies, so we shall see whether he is going to enter tha main draw. The two top seeds are Tsonga and Gasquet. BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy in Bucharest, Romania, Clay -------------------------------------------- A lot of dogs - claycourter specialist - waiting to beat top 100 favs. Like Ungur beating Seppi last year. 2010 title won by Chela that did beat Andujar in the final. Chela is in the main draw this year as seed #1, Andujar is seed #4. The seed #2 is Florian Mayer. Important notice: Tommy Robredo is back again as seed #5. Given his injury problems and match/retirement record this year, he could be good fading material! two WTA International events this week, both on outdoor hard WANLIMA Guangzhou International Women's Open, in Guangzhou, China -------------------------------------------- 2010 title won by Jarmila Gajdosova (her name was Groth at that time) that did beat Alla Kudryavtseva in the final. Alla Kudryavtseva does not play this year, Jarmila Gajdosova is in the main draw this year as seed #2. The top seed is Maria Kirilenko. Hansol Korea Open in Seoul, South Korea -------------------------------------------- 2010 title won by Alisa Kleybanova that did beat Klara Zakopalova in the final. The sad fact is Alisa is out this year due to cancer, Zakopalova is in the main draw as unseeded player. The two top seeds are Schiavone and Bartoli.

[dory24]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September One early pick on the outrights for me: Carlos Berlocq to win BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy. 33/1 @ Ladbrokes Berlocq is completely at home on the clay and is coming off an impressive title in Todi, where he dismantled some solid clay court performers in Lorenzi and Volandri in the later rounds. He doesn't have the greatest record stepping up into ATP tournaments this year, but looking through the players that have beaten him, they are all solid higher ranked players on the whole. He is in the tougher bottom half of the draw, but second seed, Florian Mayer is in very poor form recently, Starace is a shadow of the player he used to be and Robredo is only recently returning from injury. In general, he is around 16/1 elsewhere, and even as low as 12/1 with Stan James, so the 33/1 on offer at Ladbrokes seems too good to miss.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Bucharest: Souza to bt Robredo @2.25 local bookie I can't help myself, but I simply must try martingaling on Robredo's loss in this tournament. Robredo suffered serious thigh injury in week #10 in Indian Wells and gave Del Potro a walkover. This injury woes continues ever since. In week #15 at Monte Carlo in his match against Troicki he was forced to retire again, his injury grew much worse and he is only a shadow since then. He lost all matches he entered since, with the exception of the Umag match against his compatriot Ramirez-Hidalgo, who is either that weak or was giving Tommy a present by playing so bad. Tommy nevertheless did not even start his next round match against Berlock (a w/o for Berlocq). Now Bucharest is his first appearance since Umag. Souza is big guy with big serve and aggressive play that will make Tommy to run all over the court. IMO Tommy's leg will force him to retire again. And even if this is not going to be the case, his next match will be against Rosol or Ungur, that both can finish him for sure. GL :hope

[oneofthebest]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Sport Tennis Event Chardy - Gil Selection Chardy +2.5 Strength 10/10 Date 19/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Victor Chandler @ 1.95 Reasoning Wrong favourite in this match. Very high line in Victor Chandler. Chardy is more gifted player, with stroner shots from the baseline and stronger serve, if have good day can make many free points. Gil is a pusher, want keep ball in the court, always not making too much winners from baseline. 3-0 h2h for Chardy, Jeremy defending QF from last year here.

[jbolt1]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

One early pick on the outrights for me: Carlos Berlocq to win BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy. 33/1 @ Ladbrokes Berlocq is completely at home on the clay and is coming off an impressive title in Todi, where he dismantled some solid clay court performers in Lorenzi and Volandri in the later rounds. He doesn't have the greatest record stepping up into ATP tournaments this year, but looking through the players that have beaten him, they are all solid higher ranked players on the whole. He is in the tougher bottom half of the draw, but second seed, Florian Mayer is in very poor form recently, Starace is a shadow of the player he used to be and Robredo is only recently returning from injury. In general, he is around 16/1 elsewhere, and even as low as 12/1 with Stan James, so the 33/1 on offer at Ladbrokes seems too good to miss.

wellcome Dory! waiting to hear your knowledge

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

Bucharest: Souza to bt Robredo @2.25 local bookie WIN

Was not exactly as expected, because Robredo did not run at all for the points, and therefore he did not need to retire, while Souza made tons of unforced errors. But eventually this bet came through 64 76 for Souza mainly because of his huge serve. A win is a win.

[oneofthebest]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Sport Tennis Event De Scheeper - Kunitsyn Selection Over 22 Strength 10/10 Date 20/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.80 Reasoning I see Over 22 in this game. Metz surface is very fast and this is advantage for my bet, not too many break points for the every player. De Scheeper is wild card player here, local boy, who want show the best tennis for the crowd today. Kevin the biggest weapon is giant serve. I see many free points today for him. Kunitsyn is good TOP100 player with nice serve and good shots from the baseline. Close match Sport Tennis Event Clement-Llodra Selection Over 21.5 Strength 10/10 Date 20/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.75 Reasoning I see three sets in this match, Over 21.5 for me is very hot bet today. Two very experience players, in private life very good friends, doubles pair in Davis Cup. Metz surface is very fast and this is very good info for my bet. Clement form is good - St.Remy Final few weeks ago. Llodra like always is very hard to beat for the everyone on the faster surfaces like this. I don't see too many break points in this match

[oneofthebest]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Sport Tennis Event Rosol - Ungur Selection Over 21.5 Strength 10/10 Date 20/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 1.85 Reasoning I see close match here, line is very low - nice odds in Bwin Ungur play at home, big motivation for this player, extra power from the crowd. Big support for him. Ungur in last weeks is in very nice form, many good results on Challanger level. I can't image straight sets lost for this guy. Rosol in overral skills is better player, but in last weeks is out of form and can have big troubles against local player. Rosol have very good serve and can hold many serve games in a row. I see close three sets, possible for Rosol Sport Tennis Event Crivoi - Copil Selection Over 22 Strength 10/10 Date 20/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.93 Reasoning I see three sets here for Crivoi. Two good friends on the courts, two Romanian players, tournament in Bucharest, central court, big motivation from both sides, hmmm.. Both players are in Davis Cup team of Romania, both played in last weekend in tie against Czech Republic, both not take wins in matches, but not looked bad - Copil lost close match against Rosol, Crivoi against Berdych. Both players are good on the serve and I don't see too many break points in this match.

[dory24]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Just the one for today for me: Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Mathieu Rodrigues 2-0. 11/10 @ William Hill This will be Rodrigues' first ever match in the main draw of an ATP tournament. He had a great result in the final round of qualifying, beating Zverev, although that is not quite such an achievement these days, given that Zverev has barely won a match all year. Rodrigues has been playing predominantly on the futures circuit this year with some success, winning three titles, but this is a huge step up for him. Kukushkin is a solid player without being anything spectacular. He won a challenger tournament earlier in the summer and has reached another final as well. A win over Montanes at the US Open was a decent result and although he is no world beater, he should be good enough to beat Rodrigues in straight sets, even given the history of French players upping their game in home tournaments.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September I'll take one bet today, although small stakes considering the status of the events. Rui Machado v Filippo Volandri Two little dirt balls go head to head in Romania today, but going with the form book, I'll happily take Machado to dispose of Volandri with a little to spare. Volandri is really only a man best backed in Italy. He's a tough cookie on this surface but offers a lot of gifts on serve and easily loses his way. Machado won the challenger in Szczecin last week and is evidently playing well against this calibre of opponet on clay. He also dismanted Volandri 6-2 6-1 on clay earlier this year in Brazil. He's had one of his better years and can build on his victory in Poland. He's a little more compact than Volandri and has more power to his game. That should be enough for him to take out the Italian. Selection: Rui Machado -3 games AH @ 1.885 with Pinnacle 4pts :hope

[Atko]

I'll take one bet today, although small stakes considering the status of the events. Rui Machado v Filippo Volandri Two little dirt balls go head to head in Romania today, but going with the form book, I'll happily take Machado to dispose of Volandri with a little to spare. Volandri is really only a man best backed in Italy. He's a tough cookie on this surface but offers a lot of gifts on serve and easily loses his way. Machado won the challenger in Szczecin last week and is evidently playing well against this calibre of opponet on clay. He also dismanted Volandri 6-2 6-1 on clay earlier this year in Brazil. He's had one of his better years and can build on his victory in Poland. He's a little more compact than Volandri and has more power to his game. That should be enough for him to take out the Italian. Selection: Rui Machado -3 games AH @ 1.885 with Pinnacle 4pts :hope

Hmmm, that didn't go well. Machado was awful on serve (only won 49% on first serve). Need to remind myself that we are dealing with poor players here. Can't believe the Portuguese is ranked 61 in the world!

[Stribs]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

Hmmm' date=' that didn't go well. Machado was awful on serve (only won 49% on first serve). Need to remind myself that we are dealing with poor players here. Can't believe the Portuguese is ranked 61 in the world![/quote'] I had Machodo 2-0 in sets... Siggh! Disgraceful!

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Bucharest Chela vs Serra: Under 20.5 games @evens local bookie Two old veterans meeting today in Bucharest. Personally, I think Chela is one of the most unrealiable players on the tour (just remember his match this year in Acapulco where he did lead 63 51, then he lost 5 games in a row and retired), but there are reasons I trust him in this match. He is defending champion here, and he CAN play great on clay if he wants to (made it to QF at French Open this year). He faced BYE in R1, so he is fresh. Serra had to play qualies and this is going to be his fifth clay match in past couple of days. Serra does not defend any points from 2010, and he is more at home at challengers this year than at bigger ATP tournaments. IMO Serra will test Chela in first couple of games, but if Chela manages to catch the start of the match, Serra is going to collapse in easy two sets. GL :hope

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

Bucharest Chela vs Serra: Under 20.5 games @evens local bookie WIN

1-6 0-6, that's what I'd call "collapsing in two easy sets". Serra was so terribly spanked in the second set that I really was afraid that he is going to retire. But he took that bagel like a real man, LOL. edit: no more bets for me today. Bucharest is basically over, and in Metz, well: Llodra Clement two Frenchmen and friends. Though basically Llodra should win, anything can happen, and the match is already in progress anyway. In the Dolgopolov vs Baghdatis match there were some strange line movements, probably because noone knows in what shape seeded Dolgopolov is. Normally Dolgo should win, but he already collapsed several times in his first tourney appearances, better avoid. Ljubicic should normally crush Renavand into pieces, but there are doubts lately about his fitness, he did play only 3 matches since Wimbledon, and Renavand was so impressive against Kamke. Possible upset, but I better stay away.

[johnyc123]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September now thats a whooping! well in lad:ok

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Julia Goerges vs Eleni Daniilidou. Voskoboeva. 2.37 @ Bet365 (5/10) This is wrong, 2.37 for Benesova is terrible decision. I mean, she's got lots of problems lately but she is no worse player than Voskoboeva. She is one of the players I can't stand because of being mentally crap. She can check out of matches very quickly. Remember very well her no-show against Pervak. Wins the firs set and then goes missing. Didn't even return mid-court balls. The fact that Benesova has beaten 4 times out of 4 makes things even worse for Voskoboeva mentally. No way Benesova is an underdog in this match! Gajdosova > Rybarikova. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (6/10) Rybarikova was gifted a win by Rezai who once again decided that it's not worth to put in serious effort. Was not impressed with Gajdosova but I like her chances here. She has got better serve which went missing at times yesterday and she also can hit some cracking winners on return. Rybarikova not that good and having got her by default is another reason she doesn't deserve to go thru to the next round. King > Zakopalova. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (7/10) (Friday) No idea how is Zakopalova going to beat King today. Zako can't serve as her return game is better but she won't be able to hit King off the court. She has got very good running ability and that is crucial factor in this match. She will chase down most of the balls and will make Zako producing errors in the end. King 3-0 in H2H stats against Zakopalova and has dropped just one set in those three matches. 1.88 sounds good enough to me.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September late Metz action Rochus +4.5 games > Gasquet @evens local bookie Indoor hard is Gasquet's least favourite surface. His last two matches on I-hard were in february in Zagreb this year, and that was a w/o over compatriot Clement (who presumably knows how much Gasquet hates i-hard :-) and a retirement against Mischa Berrer when Berrer was leading 5-2 30:0 and serving in the first set. H2H is 7-2 for Richard, but 4 wins are on clay - Richard's best and Olivier's most hated surface. The other matches were more competitive, because Olivier is much better on quicker courts. Richard played Davis Cup in Spain last week on clay, lost both matches against Verdasco and Nadal, and I expect this swing is going to make him some troubles (he faced BYE in the first round, so this is his first match in Metz). Olivier is usualy a pain in the ass in matches against big favs, he can place extremely precise shots by both forehand and backhand, and I trust him to keep this match close. I did choose hcp rather than over 20.5, because +4.5 covers 64 64, and if this match is going to be a three setter, I trust Olivier not to colapse in the decider. GL :hope

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

late Metz action Rochus +4.5 games > Gasquet @evens local bookie LOSS

This bet was all about in what shape Gasquet will appear, and he did it well. Rochus had no chance whatsoever.

[cristianoronaldo]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Sport Tennis Event Ljubicic - Sijsling Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 23/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.83 Reasoning Too low line Paddy Power, I see higher line in next hours. First meeting in H2H. Sijsling: Round of 32 Def. Grigor Dimitrov(64,1.83) (BUL) 6-2 6-2 Round of 16 Def. (7)Philipp Kohlschreiber(45,2.73) (GER) 6-4 7-5 In both matches Sijsling serving on the highest level, amazing. In first match won 79% balls on the serve, in second 75%. Very hard to break. Ljubicic: Round of 16 Def. (q)Nicolas Renavand(364,0.03) (FRA) 7-5 7-5 Ivan been amazing like Sijsling - won 84% balls on the serve, lost only 9 balls in match. Sport Tennis Event Gasquet - Muller Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 23/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.00 Reasoning Too low line in Paddy Power, I thinking about 23.5. Jun 20 2005 Wimbledon GS (GBR) Grass, R32 (27)Gasquet(20,3.40) d Muller(69,0.63) 7-6(3) 6-3 6-3 Muller: Round of 32 Def. Philipp Petzschner(66,2.29) (GER) 7-6(2) 7-6(5) Round of 16 Def. (WC)Benoit Paire(112,1.23) (FRA) 7-6(5) 6-4 In first match won 67% balls on the serve,85% from first serve - 8 aces. In second won74%, from frist 88% and made 12 aces. Gasquet: Round of 16 Def. Olivier Rochus(80,1.24) (BEL) 6-2 6-1 Won 73% balls on the serve in this match, 10 aces, 28/31 on first serve. Sport Tennis Event Tsonga - Mahut Selection Over 20.5 Strength 10/10 Date 23/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.10 Reasoning Too low line in Paddy Power, I must play it. May 12 2008 Hamburg TMS (GER) Clay, R56 (14)Tsonga(18,0.79) d Mahut(42,0.86) 0-6 7-6(5) 6-2 Tsonga: Def. (q)Mathieu Rodrigues(275,0.22) (FRA) 6-3 6-4 Won 70% balls at the serve, made 10 aces. Won 86% balls from first serve. Mahut: Round of 32 Def. Diego Junqueira(96,1.20) (ARG) 6-3 6-2 Round of 16 Def. (WC)Arnaud Clement(172,1.51) (FRA) 3-6 7-5 6-3 In first match won 86% balls on the serve(wow) In second 'only' 66%, but make 15 aces. Sport Tennis Event Dolgopolov - Malisse Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 23/09/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.00 Reasoning Last match from METZ ATP and next OVER. Maybe I'm crazy, but I see over in every QF. Frist meeting in H2H. Malisse: Round of 32 Def. Michael Berrer(88,1.44) (GER) 6-4 3-6 6-4 Round of 16 Def. Igor Kunitsyn(58,1.24) (RUS) 6-4 6-2 In first match Malisse won 73% balls on the serve, made 12 aces. In second first serve next time been big weapon - won 83% balls from first serve. Dolgpolov: Round of 16 Def. Marcos Baghdatis(60,2.71) (CYP) 6-7(5) 7-5 6-3 Alexandr won 67% balls on the serve, 79% from first serve and made 10 aces.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Volandri to bt Souza @1.775 Pinnacle IMO this is a gift. Souza is big guy with big serve, but his baseline rallies are full of unforced errors, and this is what will make the difference today. Souza defeated the returning from injury Robredo in R1. Yesterday he was extremely lucky to get past Ungur, who is somewhat better player as far as shots are concerned, but has weaker serve, and most of all he is the biggest choker in this tournament - Souza faced 4 matchpoints in the second set against Ungur, but Ungur managed to throw away all of them (the last one by fukking an easy net volley on his own serve in the tie break), and he never got mentally out of this and collapsed in the decider. Pippo is very experienced player with superb claycourt skills, and is showing in Bucharest that he can be trusted even outside Italy. He defeated MacHado and Granollers, bot in easy two sets (OK, Granollers had injured abdominal muscle three weks ago, so this might have influenced him, but still). I am happy to jump on his bandwagon in the quarterfinals. GL :hope

[Tennis Punter]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Fancy Muller at 3.75. Not convinced he's going to win but he looks good value at these odds. The head 2 head is very misleading. 3 wins on clay and last meeting over 5 years ago. On these fast indoor courts Muller is going to be tough to break and could quite easily be decided in tie breaks by one or two points. Gasquet not be trusted at these odds. He was beaten by Karlovic in the US Open and won just 7 games in 5 sets in Davis Cup last week. That can't do your confidence any good.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

Volandri to bt Souza @1.775 Pinnacle WIN

62 60. A no-sweater (I did not sweat during the match :-) again, which is what I like. Poor Souza played 7 service games, lost them all, and only broke Pippo twice. BIG WIN. :cheers

[kingofdevils]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September

Volandri to bt Souza @1.775 Pinnacle IMO this is a gift. Souza is big guy with big serve, but his baseline rallies are full of unforced errors, and this is what will make the difference today. Souza defeated the returning from injury Robredo in R1. Yesterday he was extremely lucky to get past Ungur, who is somewhat better player as far as shots are concerned, but has weaker serve, and most of all he is the biggest choker in this tournament - Souza faced 4 matchpoints in the second set against Ungur, but Ungur managed to throw away all of them (the last one by fukking an easy net volley on his own serve in the tie break), and he never got mentally out of this and collapsed in the decider. Pippo is very experienced player with superb claycourt skills, and is showing in Bucharest that he can be trusted even outside Italy. He defeated MacHado and Granollers, bot in easy two sets (OK, Granollers had injured abdominal muscle three weks ago, so this might have influenced him, but still). I am happy to jump on his bandwagon in the quarterfinals. GL :hope

Nice one, combined this with Marsel Ilhan bet and made me some good money earlier today. Thanks Homunculus keep them coming :)

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Great day for me - I won that Volandri match, and managed to get Muller live for 1.39 in the 2nd set, and this unpopular cocaine Gasquet character was spanked :nana

[dory24]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Couple for me today: Mayer to beat Volandri 2-0. 11/10 @ Ladbrokes After a slightly erratic win against the in-form Berlocq in his first match, Mayer dispatched Ramos with ease yesterday. He was not broken and won over 50% of return points and looked to be finding some form that he has not had in recent months. Volandri also impressed yesterday, hammering Joao Souza. He won every return game, but was broken twice. His game was excellent and he clearly enjoys playing this tournament, given this is his third semi-final in Bucharest. However, Mayer will be a step up from what he has faced so far. Aljaz Bedene to beat Grega Zemlja. 19/20 @ William Hill Two regulars on the challenger circuit meet in the semi-final on the clay in Ljubljana today. Bedene has beaten Marcan, Kavcic and Navarro to reach this stage, while Zemlja has beaten Middelkoop, Zekic and Marti. Zemlja is arguably more at home on the hard courts and has had a relatively straight-forward route to the final, while Bedene is a clay court specialist with a title to his name on the surface this year. Fancy the Slovenian to win this in his home tournament. Flavio Cipolla to beat Marsel Ilhan. 2.38 @ Unibet These two played on the hard court in Washington last month, where Cipolla won 7-5, 6-0. Ilhan will be keen to avenge that defeat and has the home advantage in Izmir. An impressive victory over the promising youngster, Grigelis, in the last round will have boosted his confidence. Cipolla has been in excellent form all week, winning all three matches comfortably in straight sets. Beating Nishikori and taking Dolgopolov to five sets at the US Open has boosted his confidence and he is playing some good tennis at the moment. He went off much shorter than this when he beat Ilhan in Washington and I don't think that home advantage can represent such a drift in the odds for this one.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 19-25 September Ljubicic + 3.5 games to bt Tsonga @evens local bookie This might seem somewhat bold call, but my reasons are as this: Ljubicic is apparently playing in the form of his life here. He has not been broken even once in his three matches so far (Renavand, Sijsling, Muller), and he is getting better as the tournament progresses (against Muller it was really outstanding performance with 26 aces). He leads H2H 3-2 against Tsonga. This year they met twice, Tsonga lost on clay and won on I-hard 64 76. Ljubicic already won this tournament, knows how to beat Tsonga, and his motivation is high as he can be the first one to win this tournament twice. Tsonga, no doubt, is great player, but yesterday his start against Dolgo was rather shaky. Dolgo got an early break in the 1st set. But Dolgo was making unusually high number of errors and his serve was not working well, so Tsonga got the break back soon, and then broke Dolgo in the last game of the 1st set. The second set was kinda given as a present to Tsonga by the umpire - at Tsonga's serve at 4-4 30:30 Tsonga placed a ball that was called out. Dolgo was there to return, but he stopped play because of the call. The umpire overruled the call and instead of playing a point again he deemed this ball a winner. Dolgo collapsed mentally and lost this game and the next game at his own serve, thus ending as a loser 46 46. Now this is not going to happen again today, and the Alien Egg Head is going to make the life hard for Jo. I won't even be surprised if Ljubicic wins, but I prefer to stay on the safe side today. GL :hope