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How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?


Denman
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Following on from my success of Friday's set of games I'm going for a similar approach with tomorrow's games going for teams that need a result up against teams with effectively nothing to play for. Bet 49: Turkey v Azerbaijan - BACK Turkey @ 1.13 Liability of £0.77 to win £0.10 Bet 50: Slovenia v Serbia - LAY Slovenia @ 5.00 Liability of £0.60 to win £0.14 Bet 51: France v Bosnia - LAY Bosnia @ 7.40 Liability of £0.96 to win £0.14 Bet 52: Croatia v Latvia - BACK Croatia @ 1.17 Liability of £0.90 to win £0.15 Bet 53: Denmark v Portugal - LAY The Draw @ 2.84 Liability of £0.44 to win £0.23 Bet 54: Norway v Cyprus - LAY Over 3.5 goals @ 1.52 Liability of £0.12 to win £0.23

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Another profitable round of International fixtures for me with only Serbia letting me down by getting beat against Slovenia. In addition there was also a few other games "where teams had to win" that I could have included in hindsight. But all in all I'm pleased with how things are progressing so far. Bet 49: Turkey v Azerbaijan - BACK Turkey @ 1.13 +£0.09 Bet 50: Slovenia v Serbia - LAY Slovenia @ 5.00 -£0.60 Bet 51: France v Bosnia - LAY Bosnia @ 7.40 +£0.14 Bet 52: Croatia v Latvia - BACK Croatia @ 1.17 +£0.14 Bet 53: Denmark v Portugal - LAY The Draw @ 2.84 +£0.23 Bet 54: Norway v Cyprus - LAY Over 3.5 goals @ 1.52 +£0.23 New Bank: £12.41 More or less a month into my challenge and I've increased my initial bank size by 24.1%. I'll be more than happy if I could keep that rate up in the long-term.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Onto the weekend's Premier League games, Saturday picks first Sunday ones to follow. Bet 55: Liverpool v Man United - LAY Man United @ 2.48 Liability of £0.37 to win £0.24 Surprised to see Man United clear favourites for this game. Yes they've had an impressive start to the season but their defense is still vulnerable in my opinion and Liverpool have the attacking talent to exploit that. In my opinion this game is a very difficult one to call and I would personally give each side a similar chance of winning with Liverpool being so strong at Anfield. Therefore I think the value is in opposing Man United in this tricky away fixture. Bet 56: Norwich v Swansea - LAY Norwich @ 2.28 Liability of £0.32 to win £0.24 I've actually been impressed by both these promoted sides so far this season and from what I've seen of sides so far they look to of a similarly level. Swansea where dealt somewhat of a cruel starting set of away fixtures having to face Man City, Arsenal & Chelsea in their opening three away games. Incidentally despite the strong opposition Swansea have shown glimpses of quality in all three of those games. At home Swansea are yet to conceded a goal and boost a record of eight points from four games. Norwich have also impressed me at times this season no more so than in their last game at Old Trafford in which they where extremely unfortunate not to get anything from the game. All things considered though I think Norwich or a touch short in what looks to be an evenly matched encounter. Bet 57: Stoke v Fulham - LAY Stoke @ 2.18 Liability of £0.30 to win £0.24 Despite Stoke's strong form at home and Fulham's sometimes in different away form I think laying Stoke here is a good bet. Fulham might not win many away games but they a team that always seems to be involved in a lot of draws and very rarely get beaten heavily in games. Fulham where impressive in their last game at home against QPR and seemingly have plenty of goals in their side. On a neutral ground I'd have Fulham has slight favourites, therefore on this occasion I think the home bias has been taken into account too much to the point where I think Stoke are too short. Fulham won here last season also. Bet 58: Man City v Aston Villa - BACK under 3.5 goals @ 1.59 (with a view to trade) Liability of £2.48 to win £1.39 Think this bets offers a good trading opportunity. Man City have problems in the striking department with doubts over Tevez, Balotelli & Aguero participation in this game. In addition I think this one has the potential to turn into a similiar type of game as the Everton one in which Man City eventually won without playing that well. Aston Villa for me haven't had a brilliant start to the season yet find themselves nicely placed in the league. Alex McLeish is known for his defensive line-ups away from home and I'd expect Villa to try and frustrate Man City in this one. For all of thoose reason I expect the odds on unders in this market to shorten.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Decided to trade out for a small profit on my trade here. Reason being it's been confirmed Balotelli is fit for this game and also Aguero has a chance of being fit. Therefore my original reasoning behind the trade has gone and I feel more comfortable taking the profit now. mancityi.png

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 55: Liverpool v Man United - LAY Man United @ 2.48 +£0.24 Bet 56: Norwich v Swansea - LAY Norwich @ 2.28 -£0.32 Bet 57: Stoke v Fulham - LAY Stoke @ 2.18 -£0.30 Bet 58: Man City v Aston Villa - BACK (1.59) to LAY (1.57) under 3.5 goals +£0.03 New Bank: £12.06 ----------- So a losing Saturday unfortunately, hopefully I can pull some of it back with my Sunday bets. Bet 59: West Brom v Wolves - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.80 Liability of £0.70 to win £0.24 I fail to be convinced by either of these team defenses, they both seem better sides when attacking. Local derby should ensure a high tempo goals, be a surprise if there's not at least a couple of goals in this one. Bet 60: Arsenal v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 8.80 Liability of £0.78 to win £0.10 Was impressed with Arsenal last time out despite defeat against Tottenham. I don't really rate Sunderland much as an away side and they numerous players missing for various different reasons in Bardsley, Bramble and Bendtner, all three would in Sunderland's first choice eleven. Hard to see Sunderland coming away from this game with anything but i'll lay Sunderland to cover the draw. Bet 61: Newcastle v Tottenham - LAY Tottenham @ 2.54 Liability of £0.38 to win £0.24 Very similar situation to the Liverpool v Man United game this one in my view. Newcastle are a very strong home team and are in a great run of form right now, Tottenham you would say are the better side but this should be a difficult game in what looks a tough game to call. Therefore I'm happy to lay Tottenham in what I expect to be an evenly contested game.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Three winners today, Arsenal made hard-work of their game against Sunderland but deserved the 2-1 win. Meanwhile an entertaining game at St. James' saw Newcastle come from behind twice in the game, thought they where well worth a point in that game though. Bet 59: West Brom v Wolves - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.80 +£0.24 Bet 60: Arsenal v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 8.80 +£0.09 Bet 61: Newcastle v Tottenham - LAY Tottenham @ 2.54 +£0.24 New Bank: £12.63

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Some Champions League bets that caught my eye for tonight. Bet 62: CSKA Moscow v Trabzonspor - BACK CSKA @ 1.68 Liability of £0.37 to win £0.24 Bet 63: Lille v Inter Milan - LAY Lille @ 2.22 Liability of £0.31 to win £0.24 Bet 64: Napoli v Bayern Munich - LAY Bayern @ 2.04 Liability of £0.26 to win £0.24 Bet 65: FC Basle v Benfica - LAY Benfica @ 2.12 Liability of £0.28 to win £0.24 Bet 66: Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax - LAY Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.70 Liability of £0.43 to win £0.24

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Very happy with tonight's results with four out my five bets being winners. Bet 62: CSKA Moscow v Trabzonspor - BACK CSKA @ 1.68 +£0.24 Bet 63: Lille v Inter Milan - LAY Lille @ 2.22 +£0.24 Bet 64: Napoli v Bayern Munich - LAY Bayern @ 2.04 +£0.24 Bet 65: FC Basle v Benfica - LAY Benfica @ 2.12 -£0.28 Bet 66: Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax - LAY Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.70 +£0.24 New Bank: £13.31

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Very entertaining game in the end, Arsenal won 3-2 after being begged back after going 2-0 up. Bet 69: Arsenal v Olimpia (in-play) - LAY Olimpia @ 5.1 +£0.15 New Bank: £13.09 ---------------- Bet 70: Wolves v Swansea - LAY Over 1.5 goals @ 3.65 Liability of £0.42 to win £0.15 Surprised there's such a good price to had in laying this outcome. Think two goals are very likely in this game because Wolves usually play very open at home and Swansea have conceded plenty so far away from home this season. Bet 71: Newcastle v Wigan - LAY Newcastle @ 1.61 (with a view to trade) Liability of £2.62 to win £4.08 Think there's a very good chance of a drift on Newcastle here. Yes the Geordies are in great form and Wigan have been poor so far this season. But can't help but think they are much too short here and the market will react accordingly. If this game was at the beginning of the season i'd have expect Newcastle to be around the evens mark. Given the team fortune I would expect Newcastle to be a little shorter than that, but the current price just doesn't add up in my opinion. Newcastle are the better team you would say but I don't think the gap in quality is as big as the odds suggest here.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? My Wolves v Swansea bet was a winner, and I managed to trade out for a profit with my Newcastle lay, although there wasn't really that much movement in the odds at all. newvwig.png Bet 70: Wolves v Swansea - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.65 +£0.15 Bet 71: Newcastle v Wigan - LAY (1.61) to BACK (1.63) Newcastle +£0.05 New Bank: £13.29

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 72: Liverpool v Norwich (in-play) - BACK Liverpool @ 1.29 Liability of £0.53 to win £0.15 Liverpool really should be ahead by now with Suarez having three brilliant chances and them having hit the woodwork twice. They look really up for this game and it looks only a matter of time before the score against a shaky looking Norwich defense.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 73: Fulham v Everton - LAY Fulham @ 2.40 Liability of £0.36 to win £0.25 Very difficult game to call in my opinion, Fulham are usually strong at Craven Cottage but then again Everton are usually a plucky away side who are capable of going anywhere and winning. Fulham have the disadvantage of having the Europa League game midweek and having to play a large part of it with ten men. Overall can only see a close game here so it makes sense to lay the clear favourites Fulham. Bet 74: Man United v Man City - LAY Man United @ 2.16 Liability of £0.30 to win £0.25 Surprised to see Man United priced up as such clear favourites for this, based on Premier League form alone this season the two sides and surely evenly matched and therefore I think there's value to be had in laying the home side in this one.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Some unlikely results in the Premier League this week, just happy to come out with a small profit. Bet 72: Liverpool v Norwich (in-play) - BACK Liverpool @ 1.29 -£0.53 Bet 73: Fulham v Everton - LAY Fulham @ 2.40 +£0.25 Bet 74: Man United v Man City - LAY Man United @ 2.16 +£0.25 New Bank: £13.26

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 75: Brighton v West Ham - LAY West Ham @ 2.40 Think this will be a tough game for West Ham they've got a few injury problems and Brighton are always a tough opponent at the AMEX stadium. Don't think West Ham warrant being such strong favourites in what I see as a evenly matched contest.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? One mistake from Brighton proved costly, not much in the game to be honest Brighton had a lot of the ball but didn't threat the goal enough. Bet 75: Brighton v West Ham - LAY West Ham @ 2.40 -£0.38 New Bank: £12.88 ----------- Bet 76: Arsenal v Bolton - LAY Bolton @ 6.40 Liability of £0.92 to win £0.16 Don't expect Arsenal to field their strongest team but they've got plenty of decent players in reserve that should be enough to see them past a Bolton side that is quite frankly struggling at the minute. The price on the Bolton win is much too short in my opinion, Arsenal have a good home record in the Carling Cup and it's probably one of their realistic chances of winning a trophy this season, so I'm sure they'll take it quite seriously despite maybe resting a few for the Chelsea game this weekend.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Two bets for today: Bet 77: Swansea v Bolton - LAY 0-0 @ 12.50 Liability of £0.57 to win £0.05 Bolton defense is all over the place at present and I wouldn't expect them to keep a clean sheet here. Swansea's defense has been quite good at home but they should their vulnerability last weekend by conceding two goals against Wolves late on. Bet 78: Wigan v Fulham - LAY Fulham @ 2.54 Liability of £0.40 to win £0.25 Fulham have had a poor start to the season in my opinion, bar that big win against QPR. I was impressed by Wigan last week against Newcastle, Fulham have a poor away record when it comes to getting three points away from home. Don't thin Fulham deserve to be favourites in this game and I fancy Wigan to get at least a point of this one.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 79: West Brom v Liverpool - BACK Suarez Anytime goalscorer @ 2.44 Liability of £0.18 to win £0.25 Suarez in top form at present, should have scored against Norwich last weekend did score against Stoke in midweek. West Brom defense not the strongest in my opinion, think Suarez will get chances and you'd fancy him to finish them in his current vein of form.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 80: Tottenham v QPR - BACK Tottenham @ 1.42 Liability of £0.62 to win £0.25 Don't really rate QPR that highly, Tottenham have come through potential tough away games with a good haul of points despite not being in top form. Their full attention is on the league at present and I strongly fancy them to win here.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Not the best of weekends, but you can't win them all. Hope for better this midweek with the Champions League games. Bet 77: Swansea v Bolton - LAY 0-0 @ 12.50 +£0.05 Bet 78: Wigan v Fulham - LAY Fulham @ 2.54 -£0.40 Bet 79: West Brom v Liverpool - BACK Suarez Anytime goalscorer @ 2.44 -£0.18 Bet 80: Tottenham v QPR - BACK Tottenham @ 1.42 +£0.25 New Bank: £12.76

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 81: Stoke v Newcastle - LAY Newcastle @ 3.95 Liability of £0.47 to win £0.15 Newcastle have had a fantastic start to the season, But I think they've somewhat been over-rated in this game. They struggled past Wigan in their last league game and had to endue extra-time in midweek in defeat at Blackburn. Stoke are a force to be reckoned with at home and this is surely Newcastle's biggest test so far this season. Bet 82: Stoke v Newcastle - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.15 Liability of £0.56 to win £0.25 The markets seem to indicate that most people are thinking this will be a low-scoring affair. I actually fancy at least a couple of goals in this one, both teams are in good goal-scoring form and despite Newcastle tendency to be a little more defensive away from home. I think an early goal and this game will open up somewhat. Bet 83: Seville v Granada - LAY Granada @ 11 Liability of £1.00 to win £0.10 Been impressed with what I've seen so far from Seville this season. They are usually pretty strong at home and you'd fancy them to beat Granada who have lost four on the bounce away from home failing to score any goals in the process. I'll take the safe option of laying Granada rather than going for the straight Seville win.

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bit of a stinker tonight :$ Bet 81: Stoke v Newcastle - LAY Newcastle @ 3.95 -£0.47 Bet 82: Stoke v Newcastle - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.15 +£0.25 Bet 83: Seville v Granada - LAY Granada @ 11 -£1.00 New Bank: £11.54

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Can't believe the Granada result! They'd not scored away all season! Focus on the fact you're still up and think of the big picture. It's going well for you :ok

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

Can't believe the Granada result! They'd not scored away all season! Focus on the fact you're still up and think of the big picture. It's going well for you :ok
I know it was a bit of a freak result, Seville took the lead as well which somehow makes it worse. Yep slow going but still in decent profit. Bet 84: Zenit v Shakhtar - LAY Shakhtar @ 4.70 Liability of £0.55 to win £0.14 Bet 85: Valencia v Bayer Leverkusen - BACK Valencia @ 1.68 Liability of £0.38 to win £0.25 Bet 86: Dortmund v Olympiakos - BACK Dortmund @ 1.47 Liability of £0.55 to win £0.25 Bet 87: BATE Borisov v Milan - BACK Milan @ 1.66 Liability of £0.40 to win £0.25 Bet 88: APOEL v Porto - LAY Porto @ 1.90 Liability of £0.23 to win £0.25 Bet 89: APOEL v Porto - LAY Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 Liability of £0.31 to win £0.25 Bet 90: Plzen v Barcelona - BACK Under 5.5 goals @ 1.14 Liability of £0.64 to win £0.09 Bet 91: Arsenal v Marseille - LAY Marseille @ 5.40 Liability of £0.66 to win £0.14
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? A profitable night's selections but would have been much better but for two late goals in the APOEL game. Bet 84: Zenit v Shakhtar - LAY Shakhtar @ 4.70 +£0.14 Bet 85: Valencia v Bayer Leverkusen - BACK Valencia @ 1.68 +£0.25 Bet 86: Dortmund v Olympiakos - BACK Dortmund @ 1.47 +£0.25 Bet 87: BATE Borisov v Milan - BACK Milan @ 1.66 -£0.40 Bet 88: APOEL v Porto - LAY Porto @ 1.90 +£0.25 Bet 89: APOEL v Porto - LAY Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 -£0.31 Bet 90: Plzen v Barcelona - BACK Under 5.5 goals @ 1.14 +£0.09 Bet 91: Arsenal v Marseille - LAY Marseille @ 5.40 +£0.14 New Bank: £11.95 Record Bets 80, Wins 61, Lost 19, SR: 76.25% Trades 11, Profitable 8, Scratch 3, Losses 0, SR: 72.73%

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Perhaps a few more speculative bets for Wednesday's games but I do believe the teams at odds on I'm taking on are all too short. Bet 92: Bayern Munich v Napoli - LAY Bayern Munich @ 1.33 Liability of £0.08 to win £0.23 Bet 93: Villarreal v Man City - LAY Man City @ 1.64 Liability of £0.15 to win £0.23 Bet 94: Trabzonspor v CSKA Moscow - LAY Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Liability of £0.20 to win £0.23 Bet 95: Inter Milan v Lille - LAY Lille @ 4.4 Liability of £0.48 to win £0.13 Bet 96: Lyon v Real Madrid - LAY Real Madrid @ 1.64 Liability of £0.15 to win £0.23 Bet 97: Lyon v Real Madrid - LAY Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84 Liability of £0.22 to win £0.24 Bet 98: Ajax v Dinamo Zagreb - BACK Ajax @ 1.54 Liability of £0.44 to win £0.23

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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Not my greatest night's picks but still end up in profit (two pence worth). Ironically enough one of the other short-priced favourites I was considering laying in Benfica actually didn't win. Bet 92: Bayern Munich v Napoli - LAY Bayern Munich @ 1.33 -£0.08 Bet 93: Villarreal v Man City - LAY Man City @ 1.64 -£0.15 Bet 94: Trabzonspor v CSKA Moscow - LAY Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 -£0.20 Bet 95: Inter Milan v Lille - LAY Lille @ 4.4 +£0.13 Bet 96: Lyon v Real Madrid - LAY Real Madrid @ 1.64 -£0.15 Bet 97: Lyon v Real Madrid - LAY Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84 +£0.24 Bet 98: Ajax v Dinamo Zagreb - BACK Ajax @ 1.54 +£0.23 New Bank: £11.97

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