How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

[Denman]

Ten English pounds does not stretch very far these days it's true to say. Hopefully in this challenge I can make my ten pounds stretch a long way. No particularly goal or target in mind just to try and carry on for as long as possible. Main reason for starting this GH is that I'm finding betting very difficult to profit from a present so thought I'd try and bring a little bit of fun back into it but also a little bit of patience. Whilst there's no rigid areas that this challenge will focus on I will probably ultimately end up focusing mainly on football and the English Premier League. Idea is simply to start with £10 at first and pick out biggish outside outcomes to lay or back favorites at short odds. Whilst these will always be small returns I shall still always try and pick out lays or backs that I think represent value. I shall start with a rather aggressive 10% of the bank liability per bet (but remember I shall for the large part be taking short odds to back or big odds to lay). Although this will be adjusted at the end of each day so a couple of winning bets will see stakes increased whilst a few losers will see stakes reduce further. Got a few bets in mind for the weekend, shall post them up in due course. BETTING RECORD Bet 1: Arsenal v Swansea - LAY Swansea @ 11 +£0.10 Bet 2: Everton v Aston Villa - LAY Any Unquoted @ 14 +£0.07 Bet 3: QPR v Newcastle - LAY 0-2 @ 19 +£0.05 Bet 4: Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk - LAY 0-0 @ 15 +£0.07 Bet 5: Benfica v Man United - LAY Any Unquoted @ 11 +£0.10 Bet 6: Birmingham v Braga - LAY (2.82) to BACK (3.35) Birmingham +£0.09 Bet 7: Dynamo Kiev v Stoke - LAY Stoke @ 5.1 +£0.24 Bet 8: Bolton v Norwich - LAY 0-0 @ 14 +£0.08 Bet 9: Sunderland v Stoke - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 11.5 +£0.09 Bet 10: Blackburn V Leyton Orient - LAY Leyton Orient @ 10.5 +£0.09 ------------ Bet 11: Leeds United v Man United - LAY to Back Man United @ 1.59 £0.00 Bet 12: Brighton v Liverpool - LAY Any Unquoted @ 6.6 +£0.12 Bet 13: Stoke v Man United - LAY (1.59) to BACK (1.66) Man United +£0.08 Bet 14: Wigan v Tottenham - BACK (2.00) TO LAY (1.95) Tottenham +£0.03 Bet 15: Stoke City v Man United - LAY 0-3 @ 15 +£0.04 Bet 16: Liverpool v Wolves - BACK Wolves Clean Sheet? NO @ 1.11 +£0.09 Bet 17: Man United v Basel - BACK Man United @ 1.22 -£0.60 Bet 18: CSKA Moscow v Inter Milan - LAY Over 2.5 goals @ 2.26 -£0.29 Bet 19: Bayern Munich v Man City - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.18 +£0.12 Bet 20: BATE Borisov v Barcelona - BACK UNDER 6.5 goals @ 1.09 +£0.06 ------------ Bet 21: Valencia v Chelsea - LAY 0-0 @ 10.5 +£0.08 Bet 22: Arsenal v Olympiakos - LAY Olympiakos @ 7.6 +£0.08 Bet 23: Tottenham v Shamrock Rovers - LAY (1.19) to BACK (1.21) Tottenham +£0.10 Bet 24: Sporting Lison v Lazio - BACK (2.12) to LAY (2.08) Sporting +£0.02 Bet 25: Odense v Fulham - BACK(1.83) To LAY (1.76) Under 2.5 goals +£0.09 Bet 26: Sunderland v West Brom - LAY West Brom @ 3.45 +£0.21 Bet 27: Wolves v Newcaslte - LAY to BACK Newcastle @ 3.15 £0.00 Bet 28: Bolton v Chelsea - LAY 2-2 @ 21 +£0.04 Bet 29: Tottenham v Arsenal - BACK Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 +£0.21 Bet 30: Tottenham v Arsenal - Anytime Goalscorer Emmanuel Adebayor @ 2.62 -£0.14 ------------ Bet 31: Tottenham v Arsenal - Anytime Goalscorer Robin Van Persie @ 3.05 -£0.11 Bet 32: PSG V Lyon (in-play) - LAY PSG @ 2.36 -£0.30 Bet 33: Gaziantepspor v Beskitas (in-play) - LAY Beskitas @ 3.15 +£0.21 Bet 34: Godoy Cruz v San Lorenzo (in-play) - LAY San Lorenzo @ 3.50 +£0.21 Bet 35: Belgium v Kazakhstan - BACK Belgium @ 1.14 +£0.09 Bet 36: Andorra v Ireland - BACK Ireland @ 1.10 +£0.09 Bet 37: Armenia v Macedonia - LAY Over 2.5 goals -£0.27 Bet 38: Serbia v Italy - LAY Italy @ 3.60 +£0.13 Bet 39: France v Albania - BACK France @ 1.15 +£0.09 Bet 40: Bosnia v Luxembourg - BACK Bosnia @ 1.10 +£0.09 ------------ Bet 41: Finland v Sweden - LAY Finland @ 6.60 +£0.13 Bet 42: Greece v Croatia - LAY Greece @ 2.80 -£0.42 Bet 43: Montenegro v England - LAY Montenegro @ 6.20 +£0.13 Bet 44: Switzerland v Wales - LAY Switzerland @ 1.93 +£0.22 Bet 45: Cyprus v Denmark - BACK Denmark @ 1.48 +£0.23 Bet 46: Portugal v Iceland - BACK Portugal @ 1.10 +£0.09 Bet 47: Liechtenstein v Scotland - BACK Scotland @ 1.33 +£0.12 Bet 48: Botafogo RJ V Bahia (in-play) - LAY Bahia @ 6.00 +£0.13 Bet 49: Turkey v Azerbaijan - BACK Turkey @ 1.13 +£0.09 Bet 50: Slovenia v Serbia - LAY Slovenia @ 5.00 -£0.60 ------------ Bet 51: France v Bosnia - LAY Bosnia @ 7.40 +£0.14 Bet 52: Croatia v Latvia - BACK Croatia @ 1.17 +£0.14 Bet 53: Denmark v Portugal - LAY The Draw @ 2.84 +£0.23 Bet 54: Norway v Cyprus - LAY Over 3.5 goals @ 1.52 +£0.23 Bet 55: Liverpool v Man United - LAY Man United @ 2.48 +£0.24 Bet 56: Norwich v Swansea - LAY Norwich @ 2.28 -£0.32 Bet 57: Stoke v Fulham - LAY Stoke @ 2.18 -£0.30 Bet 58: Man City v Aston Villa - BACK (1.59) to LAY (1.57) under 3.5 goals +£0.03 Bet 59: West Brom v Wolves - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.80 +£0.24 Bet 60: Arsenal v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 8.80 +£0.09 ------------ Bet 61: Newcastle v Tottenham - LAY Tottenham @ 2.54 +£0.24 Bet 62: CSKA Moscow v Trabzonspor - BACK CSKA @ 1.68 +£0.24 Bet 63: Lille v Inter Milan - LAY Lille @ 2.22 +£0.24 Bet 64: Napoli v Bayern Munich - LAY Bayern @ 2.04 +£0.24 Bet 65: FC Basle v Benfica - LAY Benfica @ 2.12 -£0.28 Bet 66: Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax - LAY Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.70 +£0.24 Bet 67: Bayer Leverkusen v Valenca - LAY 0-0 @ 12 +£0.05 Bet 68: Porto v APOEL - BACK Porto @ 1.37 -£0.42 Bet 69: Arsenal v Olimpia (in-play) - LAY Olimpia @ 5.1 +£0.15 Bet 70: Wolves v Swansea - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.65 +£0.15 ------------ Bet 71: Newcastle v Wigan - LAY (1.61) to BACK (1.63) Newcastle +£0.05 Bet 72: Liverpool v Norwich (in-play) - BACK Liverpool @ 1.29 -£0.53 Bet 73: Fulham v Everton - LAY Fulham @ 2.40 +£0.25 Bet 74: Man United v Man City - LAY Man United @ 2.16 +£0.25 Bet 75: Brighton v West Ham - LAY West Ham @ 2.40 -£0.38 Bet 76: Arsenal v Bolton - LAY Bolton @ 6.40+£0.16 Bet 77: Swansea v Bolton - LAY 0-0 @ 12.50 +£0.05 Bet 78: Wigan v Fulham - LAY Fulham @ 2.54 -£0.40 Bet 79: West Brom v Liverpool - BACK Suarez Anytime goalscorer @ 2.44 -£0.18 Bet 80: Tottenham v QPR - BACK Tottenham @ 1.42 +£0.25 ------------ Bet 81: Stoke v Newcastle - LAY Newcastle @ 3.95 -£0.47 Bet 82: Stoke v Newcastle - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.15 +£0.25 Bet 83: Seville v Granada - LAY Granada @ 11 -£1.00 Bet 84: Zenit v Shakhtar - LAY Shakhtar @ 4.70 +£0.14 Bet 85: Valencia v Bayer Leverkusen - BACK Valencia @ 1.68 +£0.25 Bet 86: Dortmund v Olympiakos - BACK Dortmund @ 1.47 +£0.25 Bet 87: BATE Borisov v Milan - BACK Milan @ 1.66 -£0.40 Bet 88: APOEL v Porto - LAY Porto @ 1.90 +£0.25 Bet 89: APOEL v Porto - LAY Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 -£0.31 Bet 90: Plzen v Barcelona - BACK Under 5.5 goals @ 1.14 +£0.09 ------------ Bet 91: Arsenal v Marseille - LAY Marseille @ 5.40 +£0.14

[Atko]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

Ten English pounds does not stretch very far these days it's true to say. Hopefully in this challenge I can make my ten pounds stretch a long way. No particularly goal or target in mind just to try and carry on for as long as possible. Main reason for starting this GH is that I'm finding betting very difficult to profit from a present so thought I'd try and bring a little bit of fun back into it but also a little bit of patience. Whilst there's no rigid areas that this challenge will focus on I will probably ultimately end up focusing mainly on football and the English Premier League. Idea is simply to start with £10 at first and pick out biggish outside outcomes to lay or back favorites at short odds. Whilst these will always be small returns I shall still always try and pick out lays or backs that I think represent value. I shall start with a rather aggressive 10% of the bank liability per bet (but remember I shall for the large part be taking short odds to back or big odds to lay). Although this will be adjusted at the end of each day so a couple of winning bets will see stakes increased whilst a few losers will see stakes reduce further. Got a few bets in mind for the weekend, shall post them up in due course.

Good luck mate, you're often one of the few posters I look for in the Premiership threads. Hope this is a success, always nice to have a light-hearted fun run.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Thanks Atko, Got two bets for Saturday lined-up. Bet 1: Arsenal v Swansea - LAY Swansea @ 11 Think this is the perfect game for Arsenal on the back of their mauling at Old Trafford. It is true Arsenal unusually struggled at the Emirates last season but I don't think Swansea have a one in eleven chance of winning this game like the odds suggest. Swansea have struggled infront of goal so far this season and have yet to register a goal. Arsenal have players missing but still have plenty of quality in attack and should have enough to win this one comfortably in my opinion. Although a draw or Arsenal win will suffice here for me to win my first bet. Bet 2: Everton v Aston Villa - LAY Any Unquoted @ 14 Haven't really been impressed with either team so far this season. Both teams have lost key attacking players, Everton (Beckford, Yakubu allowed to leave and injury doubts over the likes of Cahill & Saha). Aston Villa saw the best two players of Young & Downing leaving also. Overall I think both teams strengths lie more in their defense than in attack. Find it very unlikely that either team will score many goals here, this is an effective lay of neither team scoring four or more.

[freddie1]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Both of those look solid picks Denman. Good Luck.:ok

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Cheers patthecat. Forgot to add the liability and potential returns with each bet. Bet 1: Liability of £1.00 to win £0.10 Bet 2: Liability of £0.91 to win £0.07

[aliando]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? :hope

[luckyblogger]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Always good to start with a winner.. wd denman

[staffy]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Well done and good luck.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 1: Arsenal v Swansea - LAY Swansea @ 11 +£0.10 Bet 2: Everton v Aston Villa - LAY Any Unquoted @ 14 +£0.07 New Bank: £10.17 Thanks guys, two winners to start with although my reading of the games wasn't the best I'd admit. Arsenal didn't win as comfortably as I expecting, Swansea cold have easily got something from that game. Likewise I was expecting a dull game between Everton and Villa but it turned out to be an eventful 2-2. Although I was right to lay any unquoted rather than going for an under goals market there. Think laying at long odds gives you more room for error and you don't always to be exactly right to win the bet. Bet 3: QPR v Newcastle - LAY 0-2 @ 19 Didn't like to look of anything on Sunday, but do tonight. Quite fancy QPR to win tonight, was considering a lay of Newcastle but think that might be a bit too risky at this stage. Instead I've decided to lay the correct score of 0-2, Newcastle have lost arguably their best three players in the summer with Nolan, Barton & Jose Enrique all moving away from the club. They've had a good start to the season but haven't really impressed me that much. QPR had a good home record in the Championship and with some decent new signings on board I think they should be able to win this win. If Newcastle do win I can't see being by two clear goals, I also think there's a strong chance of QPR scoring at last one goal here against a Newcastle defense that did suffer a few bad days away from home last season.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Forgot to add again: Bet 3: Liability of £0.90 to win £0.05

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Another winning bet, was correct in fancying QPR they dominated they game but wasted numerous chances to win it. Newcastle had a few half chances but rarely threatened going forward. Final score was 0-0. Bet 3: QPR v Newcastle - LAY 0-2 @ 19 +£0.05 New Bank: £10.22 Record: Bets 3, Wins 3, Lost 0, SR: 100% Got an eye on a bet or two for tomorrow, shall post them when decided and placed.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Just the one for tonight: Bet 4: Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk - LAY 0-0 @ 15 Liability of £0.98 to win £0.07 Watch quite a lot of Porto games last season and a few this season. Know they are a very attacking side who are very rarely involved in low-scoring game. Don't know as much about Shakhtar but do know they've been Champions League regulars in recent years and are always fairly competitive in this competition. Also they are a team that has a lot of attacking talent and generally scores plenty of goals as well. Overall think this will probably be a quite open game due to the style of both teams and I'll be very surprised if this ends 0-0.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Much more comfortable winning bet tonight with the game finishing 2-1 and a missed penalty thrown in for good measure. Bet 4: Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk - LAY 0-0 @ 15 +£0.07 New Bank: £10.29

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? opps forgot to include: Liability of £1.00 to win £0.10

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Was sneaky trying to lay Carlos Tevez to score in tonight's Champions League, because I don't think he'll be starting, there was small matched amounts 2.40 and 2.48, but unfortunately I never got my lay matched so this attempted bet/trade never materialised. Have singled out one bet for tonight though: Bet 5: Benfica v Man United - LAY Any Unquoted @ 11 May seem a little more risky on the face it with Man United in such great scoring form at present but you've got to remember this is the Champions League and Man United usually set-up their style a lot differently away from home in this competition as shown by their record away from in the CL last season. Where they played six games, scoring just seven goals and conceding none. Benfica are usually a fairly attacking side but Man United are more than capable of doing "a job on them" here and I expect a narrow win for them. Also have to take into consideration that Man United have a big league game against Chelsea at the weekend, so fully expect a few players to be rested and some to be subbed to be rested as well. Overall I can't see either team mustering up four goals in what I expect to be a tight low-scoring game.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Just been looking through Thursday's game and these bets stood out for me, will be using stakes as of correct before my previous bet i.e. 10% of my last posted bank figure. Bet 6: Birmingham v Braga - LAY Birmingham @ 2.82 Liability of £1.02 to win £0.53 Think Birmingham are way too short here, this game is effectively a mid-table Championship side up against a team who competed in the Champions League last season and then made it through to the final of this competition (Europa League) last season. I've taken this bet more as a trade than an outright bet, think there's a good chance of Birmingham drifting here and hopefully I'll be able to lock in a profit. Bet 7: Dynamo Kiev v Stoke - LAY Stoke @ 5.1 Liability of £1.02 to win £0.24 Think Stoke are too short here at just over 4/1. Dynamo Kiev knocked Man City out of this competition last season which shows they must have some ability. Kiev's home record in their native Ukraine is remarkably good as well. They also have never been beaten at home in the Europa League they won four and drew three in last year's competition. I also don't rate Stoke as an away team, they've been awful travelers in the Premier League over the past two seasons. True they've managed to grind out two 1-0 wins away from home so far in this competition but I think they'll find this game a lot tougher. In addition key players Crouch, Ethertington & Delap all don't make the trip so it won't be Stoke's strongest team by any means. Expect Kiev to win this game I think realistically the best Stoke can hope for here is a 0-0. For that reason a lay of Stoke is my choice of bet here.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Another winner tonight makes it five out of five. As expected Man United made lots of changes for this one. Admit I haven't yet watched the match (shall watch the highlights later) but by the sounds of it Benfica had the better of the game but Man United's defense held out well away from home in Europe once again. Final score was 1-1. Bet 5: Benfica v Man United - LAY Any Unquoted @ 11 +£0.10

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Birmingham drifted as expected (little bit more than I expected in fact) which means I'm able to lock in a profit for this match regardless of the outcome. £0.09 if it ends a draw or Braga win and £0.08 if Birmingham win. Here's evidence of the trade: Just to clarify the Stoke lay is a normal bet and I'm letting that one run. Although I notice they've also drifted considerably, whilst that alone doesn't guarantee you a win it at least means I got a good price on the lay compared to other people. Shall update again after tonight's games have finished.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Well tonight saw my first injury time goal salvage a bet for me. I admit I did a little fist pump when Dinamo Kiev finally found the goal. Although it's probably best to try and set your emotions aside and maintain an objective view when betting. Truth be told it was a bit of a smash and grab job from Stoke, playing with five across the back and three defensive midfielders. But credit where it's due Stoke worked incredibly hard and it looked like it had earnt themselves a famous European win. Regardless of the late Kiev equaliser I think my bet was a sound one, Kiev where the dominate force and had so many chances in the game. It looked like being just one of those games where they did everything but score. So bet 7 was a winner with the final score being 1-1. Birmingham went onto lose to Braga 1-3, although I don't have any regrets in trading out because I admit not to having a great knowledge of the present Birmingham side and my intention was always the trade out anyway. Shall look through the Premier League for Saturday and post any bets up tomorrow. Bet 6: Birmingham v Braga - LAY (2.82) to BACK (3.35) Birmingham +£0.09 Bet 7: Dynamo Kiev v Stoke - LAY Stoke @ 5.1 +£0.24 New Bank: £10.72

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? A very "trappy" looking set of fixtures this week, by that I mean lots of difficult ones to call in which you could get dragged into betting on for the simple sake of betting. I've outlined only one for Saturday, shall keep an eye on the markets for Sunday's games though. Bet 8: Bolton v Norwich - LAY 0-0 @ 14 Liability of £1.04 to win £0.08 Think a 0-0 scoreline here is very unlikely. Mainly because both teams usually set-up in a positive manner and their managers like to see their teams attack. Secondly I've been unimpressed with the Norwich defense at times this season, which has been error-prone to say the least. They've conceded three penalties in their first four games. In addition Norwich have scored in their two away games this season including one at Stamford Bridge. Bolton have had a tough start to the season having played Man City, Liverpool & Man United in their last three games. Worringly for Bolton they concede eleven goals over the course of those three games. Although attacking wise Bolton have done okay scoring seven so far this season including four against newly promoted QPR on opening day. Overall I expect goals in this match, both teams strength lie in their attacks and I think there's a strong chance of both teams scoring, personally think Bolton will win and if I had to predict the score I'd say 3-1. However just the one goal would suffice for me here.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 8: Bolton v Norwich - LAY 0-0 @ 14 +£0.08 I was right about both teams scoring but Norwich surprised me with a win here. I also got the fact about penalties wrong it was actually four in four prior to yesterday's game, it's now five in five! All that matters is that it was a winning bet though. Glad I managed to avoid most of yesterday's game to be honest quite a lot of strange results, with only one clear favourite (in Everton) winning. Onto today and I've picked out one bet. Bet 9: Sunderland v Stoke - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 11.5 Liability of £0.94 to win £0.09 Tried to get a better price on this lay (or back on the unders side) but I still think this represents decent enough value. Stoke set-up defensively away from home and rarely involved in high-scoring. In addition Sunderland are struggling I don't see many goals in their side to be honest. This game as all the hallmarks of tight game low-scoring game. Before their last meeting in February the head-to-heads between these sides in the Premier League (five of them) had all had two goals or less. Their February meeting was a 3-2 result, although I think that was something of a rarity and things have changed since then. In my opinion Stoke's defense has strengthened further and Sunderland's attack has been weakened with Henderson and now Gyan leaving. This selection allows a bit of room for error as well there can be up to four goals and my bet will still win. I just find five goals in this game a very unlikely outcome which I would say as around 15 in 1+ chance therefore the lay at 11.5 looks good to me.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? I mentioned room for error and I used all that room as Sunderland won 4-0. Quite a big surprise to me Sunderland scoring four I must say but it seemed under 4.5 goals was a good option over laying Any Unquoted (which was actually a bigger price) . I'm thinking about a change in staking plan from here on, shall post up details soon. But for now I'm happy with how things are going can't grumble at nine straight winning bets even if a few of them have been a bit close. Bet 9: Sunderland v Stoke - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 11.5 +£0.09 New Bank: £10.89

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? I've decided to adopt this staking plan but with a few adjustments. I'll be using double the percentage figures mentioned there to start off with and I've added an extra band at the end. So effective there are four boundaries for my laying (any back bets I'll inverse the odds and calculate the figure to be staked as well). Lays equal to or below 3.5 shall use a 2% stake for laying (meaning my maximum liability for any bet in this boundary will be 5% of my total bank) Lays between the range 3.6 to 7.4 shall use a 1.6% stake for laying (meaning my maximum liability for any bet in this boundary will be 7.68% of my total bank). Lays between the range of 7.5 to 11 shall use a 0.8% stake for laying (meaning my maximum liability for any bet in this boundary will be 8% of my total bank). Any lays greater than 11 will use a 0.40% stake for laying (meaning my maximum liability for any bet in this boundary will be 11.60% of my total bank). May seem a bit complicated at first but really it isn't, it's all about flexibility in the liabilities you have. It makes more sense to have higher liability on laying longer shots (or backing shorter shots) whilst still having the chance to lay lower odds with a lower liability (but still gaining a decent return if these lays are successful). However I'm fully aware that a good staking plan means nothing if you can't constantly find value in your picks and have an edge. You may find this a bit over-cautious from myself after all I'm only using a £10 bank. But this is just the sort of attitude I want to have it shouldn't matter if your betting with £10 or £10,000 you should always put an adequate staking plan in order. The 10% fixed liability staking was okay to start with but it restricted my betting and hopefully this staking plan will allow greater flexibility for my betting going forward. I'm looking threw the Carling Cup game at present, so I'll probably be back to post a few bets up later today at some point.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 10: Blackburn V Leyton Orient - LAY Leyton Orient @ 10.5 Liability of £0.86 to win £0.09 I confess to not knowing much about Leyton Orient, but I do see them bottom of League One. Blackburn are usually very strong at home in this competition and easily brushed aside League One side Sheffield Wednesday in the last round. Blackburn put out a fairly strong side in that game and I expect they'll do the same again here. Given Leyton Orient's early season plight they could be forgiven for not taking this competition too seriously. Difficult to see Blackburn not winning this one but I've gone for the safe option of laying Leyton Orient. Odds suggest they should win this game one out of eleven games, But I feel that's being generous considering there's two divisions difference between the two clubs and the fact Orient are more likely to be focused on the league. Bet 11: Leeds United v Man United - LAY Man United @ 1.59 (with a view to trade) Liability of £0.26 to win £0.42 Think Man United are a little too short in this one. Leeds are a competent Championship side and there's sure to be a hostile atmosphere at Elland Road for this visit of Man United here. Man United very rarely play anywhere near their first choice eleven in this competition's early rounds, yes they've got good squad depth and they'll put out a team that will be of a good quality. But I don't think it will be a team that warrants being such a short price. A weakened Man United team crashed out of the Carling Cup away at West Ham in a 4-0 defeat last year. Not saying the same will happen here but I feel Leeds have been under-estimated in the odds. Therefore all things being considered I think there's a good chance of there binge a suitable drift for me to be able to lock in a profit.

[LPMU]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Isn't the minimum stake £2.00 on betfair? How are you getting below that?

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

Isn't the minimum stake £2.00 on betfair? How are you getting below that?

Read this. :)

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? I've scratched the Man United trade because the price seems pretty stable and unfortunately I won't be online later tonight so can't wait till team news is announced which might actually move the odds out depending on the line-ups. Bet 11: Leeds United v Man United - LAY to Back Man United @ 1.59 £0.00

[BankofKauto]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

I've scratched the Man United trade because the price seems pretty stable and unfortunately I won't be online later tonight so can't wait till team news is announced which might actually move the odds out depending on the line-ups. Bet 11: Leeds United v Man United - LAY to Back Man United @ 1.59 £0.00

I was looking at this game for a trade but couldn't be confident in which way it was going. The price stayed pretty solid even after team news. Nice thread. I thought it was going to be the usual glory hunt where people lay every short price they can find but I like your analysis and your bets seem to be +ev.

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

I was looking at this game for a trade but couldn't be confident in which way it was going. The price stayed pretty solid even after team news. Nice thread. I thought it was going to be the usual glory hunt where people lay every short price they can find but I like your analysis and your bets seem to be +ev.

Thanks for the info, very peculiar market has it turns out wasn't much movement at all. Looks like I took the right decision to trade out on this match. I certainly hope I have an edge, but I suppose it is a bit early to tell only 10 bets in. Positive signs so far though, remaining selective and disciplined is my plan. Anyway my one only bet running today was a winner, with Blackburn beating Leyton Orient 3-2. Was a lot more comfortably than it sounds with Blackburn having 64% possession and 20 shots on target. Bet 10: Blackburn V Leyton Orient - LAY Leyton Orient @ 10.5 +£0.09 New Bank: £10.98

[Denman]

Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 12: Brighton v Liverpool - LAY Any Unquoted @ 6.6 Little bit more risk involved in this one perhaps because cup games can be in there very nature unpredictable and there's a greater incentive for a losing team to chase the game. Liverpool have quite a few players missing for this although they are still able to field a strong side. Don't know much about Championship side Brighton, but have heard positive things about them so far this season looking back over their results this season it's noticeable they don't tend to concede many goals. In addition they knocked out a reasonably strong Sunderland side in the last round which shows they can mix with it Premier League sides. I expect a fairly tight game here to be honest (although I said that about the Leeds/Man United game yesterday). Difficult to see either team scoring four here despite Liverpool's attacking qualities I think Brighton will be able to frustrate them. Plus there's always the taking the foot off the gas effect, if Liverpool go a couple of goals up there may be little incentive in pushing for more and instead just seeing the game out.