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UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Mustafa

By Mustafa
in Champions League Predictions

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nicko

nicko

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

While referring to "parking of a bus" I was thinking of the attacking side, defending the one goal lead. Perhaps I went a bit to far in my reasoning, Barca was just inefficient and BATE was good as well. I also wholeheartedly agree with "1-0 is just as good as 2-0. A tight United approach vs the better teams in Europe while away is exactly the behaviour of Sir Alex and his players." Surely IF ManUtd score one the second may never come, but as I said that is reflected in the odds -> my predicted scenario is not a scenario I can imagine happening every game. It will be by all means an open game where anything can happen. I play it with a double with FC Basel -1,5 and I'd expect this bet to lose 2 out of 3 times, so I decided to take it at 8,75. As for a United clean sheet - I would avoid that with De Gea, Vidic and Ferdinand missing away. What games are you playing today, Nicko? P.S. Of course my reasoning is now undermined by Sir Alex's "experimental" squad, frankly I think of leaving Nani and Young out as not taking the opponent seriously enough. Let's see how it goes though.
Went for Cards and 2 Overs - don't want to post which ones - not fair. I am quite happy so far, but some good ''shots'' in South Africa on the in-play had me go for more at HT. Over in Lille, Over 1,5 in Amsterdam, Over 3,5 in Lisbon, Over in Villareal, Sow, Hazard and Frei to score 2 or more...We will see... GL P.S. ...and Cardozo to score at least one more :-)
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Profit Prophet

Profit Prophet

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

VILLARREAL DNB @ 2.30:sad AJAX DRAW @ 3.30:clap LILLE OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.20:clap BENFICA UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.85:clap BOOKMAKER : BLUESQ SINGLES/DOUBLES/TREBLES/FOUR FOLDS Not much to add to the villarreal analysis so far. Fairly solid at home against a Bayern side that seem to make hard work of getting out of the group over recent seasons. Ajax/lyon, i think the french side are stronger than ajax and have pulled off a few decent away results in recent years. My gut just thinks they'll cancel each other out mainly due to this being the first game. Lille/Moscow, was going to go with lille but i'm wary given moscow pulled off a few decent results last season eg-sevilla. I think moscow can score and therefore see value in the overs. Finally, Benfica/man utd under 2.5. I know benfica are an attacking side but they like to play possession football. Don't see any value in a man u win, who over recent seasons have only achieved narrow wins in portugal. I see know reason why this wont end 0-1 1-1. good luck everyone :hope
Good night overall
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Profit Prophet

Profit Prophet

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

DRAW HT MAN CITY FT @ 4.33:@ MAN CITY TO WIN BY 1 GOAL @ 3.50:@ BLUESQ I'm not so sure we'll see the attacking man city we've witnessed recently in the premiership. Mancini is quite a defensive coach and i think he'll be wary of Napoli on the counter. I expect City to win this but Napoli are being under-estimated by the bookies imo. They have a wealth of talent themselves and more importantly have played together for sometime now, progressing well each season. It's likely Napoli haven't targeted anything from this game in their plan to get out of the group and if they do go behind i can't see them chasing the equaliser gung ho. To conclude, man city could beat them 3-0 plus but i think given all the factors we'll see a moderately slow paced kind of continental game and at the odds available i think it value. Just comes down to whether i've read the game style/pace correctly imo.
Gutted with these even though i only went in small stakes. Knew Napoli were being under estimated. Oh well... What about Inter :loon We've all seen them struggle at home in europe over the past few seasons, suppose the signs were there.
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artist

artist

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Ajax - Lyon 1-1, can't see ajax strong enough to win here, it's not like the results in their quite poor championship matter. Lyon are decent this year, but they aren't strong enough to win this one either. Basel - Otelul try 1-0, two poor teams(Basel suck this year, Otelul too, but they are good defensively, it's all they;re good at) Benfica - Man Utd 2-2, You may be Man Utd, but you don't beat Benfica on their stadium, not in the first match of the group, anyway. D Zagreb - R Madrid 1-2, because R Madrid simply won't give a **** about anything more than the 3 points and D Zagreb won't put them many problems Inter - Trabzon 3-1. Inter has 3 defenders so they can concede here but they will win 2-1 or more likely 3-1 cause Trabzon are not that much of a great team. Lille - CSKA 1-1, cause CSKA are no pushovers and just a 0-4 result doesn't mean anything. More than that everybody goes on Lille so it's sure thing a draw in that case. Man City - Napoli 2-1 3-1 3-2, because Napoli play 3 4 3 and they will concede at least 2 Villareal - Bayern just draw, because Bayern Munich are in good form, but they're poor against spanish and it's also the first match of the group and away. I don't see Villareal as silly as to lose at home in their first game and I don't see Munich pushing so strongly as to win away in the first match. Again the public went silly on Bayern, they won;t win.
I guessed the winners and the margins in 5 of 8. Not bad, not bad The scores were completely wrong, though, but you rarely can guess scores
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artist

artist

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Did you put money on or were you just guessing for fun? I think it makes a difference when you're putting your money where your mouth is.
Only on Man Utd x and Lille over, yesterday, when the odds for over were still tasty But I'm still happy with my predictions and don't even try to take that away from me :P
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Profit Prophet

Profit Prophet

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Only on Man Utd x and Lille over, yesterday, when the odds for over were still tasty But I'm still happy with my predictions and don't even try to take that away from me :P
Okay, Personally i wouldn't read too much into your picks then. I find when it comes to actually placing a bet my mind is less free than just picking them for fun knowing i have nothing to lose. I also would clarify if you're backing an opinion up with money or not in future, as i say, it does make a difference. Afterall, if you're not confident enough to put money on it how are we suppose to take your feelings/information seriously?
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Manchester City - Napoli Embarassing odds for third team in Italy. I did see City games so far, but this is Cl and they are against Napoli team who is strong, has depth and misses only Donadel and Britos, both easy replaced. City play offensive football, but Napoli put all pieces together after transfer window close. Inler was the biggest plus, and golden trio of Hamsik - Lavezzi - Cavani stayed. Dont need much added infos here, Napoli is great value on this hcp. Napoli +1.5 @ 1.93 sbobet
:ok
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Profit Prophet

Profit Prophet

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September MPLouis, anyone who writes 'sure bet' 'it will win' 'they wont lose' etc.. i just ignore completely what they say. Any punter with just a season or 2 experience knows this game is about averages and anything can happen. Half the battle on here is sorting through the crap that's written. We've just had a fella congratulating himself on guessing scores for fun! He then takes the time to tell us about his feelings even though he isn't following them himself. He even is so adamant to say 'bayern wont win' but doesn't put money on it himself! You couldn't make it up :rollin:wall

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blackcrow

blackcrow

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September Man City -1.5 @ 2.16 :( Had some chances early but got stung by a counter attack Bayern Munich @ 2.06 :D Good win Man Utd @ 2.08 :( Did not expect such a weakened team to start like this - obviously Ferguson had Chelsea in mind this weekend Ajax - Lyon over 2.5 @ 1.93 :(

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Thanks ;). Here it is ... http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007578/prematch/background/index.html I was thinking of backing Bayern or possibly Bayern clean sheet (at around 3.0 I think), but in view of Villarreal's superb home record in Europe and Bayern's poor record away to Spanish teams, I don't think I will.
Bad mistake :\ I saw some of the Villarreal v Bayern game tonight, which finished 0-2. Bayern played the same style as in the Bundesliga - they kept the ball well, passing and moving in simple effective style, and made fast probing attacks. With the useful benefit of hindsight, 3.0 was oustanding odds for a Bayern clean sheet here.
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Shotty

Shotty

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September Quick question for you guys if you wouln't mind answering. If you see odds around 1.8 to 2.0 etc and see value in that do you put a single bet on that to win? I normally do doubles, trebles, accy's when i bet but i see lots of people saying there taking odds of around 1.8 but you would have to bet high stakes if you want a big return right? What's your normall betting style guys? I could do with a few tips

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croato

croato

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

NK Dinamo-CF Real Madrid Bet: Dinamo not to score Odd: 1,80 Bookie: local Stake: 6/10 I am also from Croatia but fan of Dinamo"s arch rival, HNK Hajduk Split. Last saturday Dinamo played hard match against my club, ended 1:1 althoguh Dinamo had man more on the field for 70 minutes. Second half they were better, but did not create much opportunities. From my point of view Dinamo has no chances against Real Madrid side, cause guests are far more higher level then boys from Zagreb. Maybe the weakest part of Dinamo"s side is their coach and I am not sure how long is he going to last( probably will get fired when dinamo finish last in group ). For this match right back Å ime Vrsaljko and Josip Å imunić are not available, so defence is going to be weak, Dinamo"s efforts on the right side are going to be much less dangerous than it was against Malmo first game. So when I see everything, I am confident about this pick.
FT 0:1 :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana
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ginhovski

ginhovski

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Benfica vs Machester United 14.09.2011 Pick: Manchester United Odd: 1,93 (Pinnacle,Sbobet...) Confidence: 5/10 First game of the group these wednesday. I think that´s a good bet because although Benfica being always difficult at home, we could not ignore that magnificient start of MU: 4 games 4 wins and the last 3 were 0-3 (Tottenham), 8-2 (Arsenal) and 0-5 (Bolton)!! Surelly they are at a suberb form and very moralized for this game. Only Cleverley is injured and Evans and Evra are in doubt for this game. Benfica is a good team but not yet in previous season form (This weekeng they won 2-1 against Guimaraes with 3 penalties for them!). All the squad are available, but i thing that MU have much better team and at the moment they should win in my oppinion.
Benfica 1 - 1 Manchester...bet lost - 5 units :(:wall
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ginhovski

ginhovski

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Benfica vs Machester United 14.09.2011 Pick: over 2,5 Odd: 2 (Bet 365, gamebookers, sbobet) Confidence: 7/10 I´m very surprised with that odd!! Two natural offensive teams surelly score at least 3 goals! MU scored 16 goals last 3 games and benfica always scores on home games (last season 36goals on 15games!) and this season they are also suffering goals every games. Almost guaranted for me, with very good odd here!
Benfica 1 - 1 Manchester..bet lost - 7 units:wall
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aderuk

aderuk

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Quick question for you guys if you wouln't mind answering. If you see odds around 1.8 to 2.0 etc and see value in that do you put a single bet on that to win? I normally do doubles' date=' trebles, accy's when i bet but i see lots of people saying there taking odds of around 1.8 but you would have to bet high stakes if you want a big return right? What's your normall betting style guys? I could do with a few tips[/quote'] I as a rule do singles and build up slowly with a staking plan.i do some acca's for fun but how often does one tam let you down.Plus the chances of winning big on an acca are slimmmmmmmmmmm.
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TOTTI3

TOTTI3

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Villarreal Bayern = under (1.90) Totosì Preview: Villarreal: injured: Angel (defender 18 / 0); Suspended: Borja Valero (midfielder 37 / 3) Bayern: injured: Ivica Olic (striker 16/13), Arjen Robben (midfielder 14/12) Villarreal after his last appearance in the Champions League back in 2008/2009 will play his first game in a group of death with teams like Naples, Man City, Bayern. The last game in the league from Villarreal was a good game with ten men a 2-2 draw against Sevilla. While Bayern so far in the league's first wonder is playing in the Bundesliga has won six consecutive games before losing only the championship. I think this is a game with few actions to goals. :hope:hope:hope
Ca$HHHHHHHH :ok
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gabymnk

gabymnk

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

FC Basel vs Otelul Galati I'm not much of a swiss football expert but i know Otelul Galati pretty well and I can tell you there is no way Otelul can make some points in this years Champions League. Like Unirea Urziceni two years ago, Otelul managed to win to championship by being transformed by a young talented coach. With a budget under 2 millions euros the team has no high value players and made no serious transfers this summer.IT is still counting on being a "team" but unfortunately this is not working out for them this season as they are no longer seen as underdogs. After 6 rounds in Romania's Liga 1, Otelul managed to get only 7 points and is ranked 14th, showing poor football in most of the games.In the last round they played at CFR Cluj and got a 4-0 beating. As a comparison, CFR Cluj played Basel in last years CHL group stage and lost in Switzerland 1-0. I have to admit that Otelul is far from last years CFR Cluj and I am seeing Basel a total banker at odds around 1.6 . Basel @ 1.60 with bet365 10/10 Basel -1 @ 2.1 7/10 I would appreciate some info from a swiss football expert.;)
Basel 2-1 Otelul Galati +6 units;) but neither of the teams deserved to win. A dissapointing performance from both teams that made me believe that I'm watching some match from 3rd or 4th league in Romania. There is now doubt that Manchester and Benfica will have no problems with these two. Anyway profit is profit so let's :cheers:cheers.
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Kiddo112

Kiddo112

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

One that caught my eye is in the Real Madrid game. William Hill are a standout 1.3 on Madrid to win. They have started the season in fine form, really testing Barca in the Super Cup, losing to a late goal at the Camp Nou. They did manage to score twice in both legs, and could of had more in the 2-2 draw in Madrid. Here they forced 9 corners (to Barca's 2) and 12 goal attempts. At Camp Nou they had an impressive 16 goal attempts. This against the best side on the planet. They followed this up with a 6-0 romp at Real Zaragoza in their only league game to date, a game in which they had 64% possesion, a whopping 33 goal attempts, 16 of which were on target. It is clear that Mourino understands that to have any chance of toppling Barca, they need to start the season at full tilt. I think what often happens in the CL is that when the big clubs play away from home to one of the lesser teams, the excitement and euphoria of just geing there can overcome the home team and they go too gung-ho in thier home games. This is especially true in the early group games, where "the dream is still alive" for the leser teams. And as a result, they get picked off nearly at will by the better quality of the bigger teams. Given the players Madrid possess, I think there is a strong likelyhood of this scenario playing out here. Bookies are generally going 1.36 on Madrid to net twice, and 2.00 on them getting 3 or more. However there maybe be some value in the "Race to x goals" market with William Hill. Here they are 1.44 to win the race to 2 goals, and 2.375 in the race to 3 goals. I think the better prices more than offset the risk of Zagreb notching 2 or 3 before Madrid. Be interested to get any views on this, particularly any from a Zagreb point of view.
FT 0-1 :( Sloppy performance from Madrid, and yet pretty dissapointed they couldn't at least get a 2nd. 21 goal attempts, 11 on target. A few very good chances, and Higuan was very frustrating when he came on. Small consolation in the fact that a -1.5 AH bet would of been sunk as well.
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tipical user

tipical user

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

Well' date=' we all agree abut class difference here. Real is team from another planet for Dinamo. Nobody count on Real player's approach to this game. Saw a video when they landed on airport, there were some 200 hundred fan's there applauding them and no one even smiled them. At the same time Usain Bolt, the fastest man on earth is hanging out with fan's and even when he finished his race he runned the circle giving high five's to people who standed in front stand's. In football you can not underestimete no one. And I think Real could make that mistake. They get here in Zagreb to play match VS some Dinamo, who hasn't seen CL for 13 year's and maybe, just maybe they think : this shoul be piece of cake. Many football player's who played on Maximir said that they never seen that kind of support from stand's (BBB are out, but still Zagreb and Croatia are known for football fanatic's) and I think that it coul be surprise for player's of Real. Every single player of Dinamo know's that this maybe the match of his life and you can be sure that they will give 200 % of themselves. Dinamo is not some Maltese or Georgian team, they know that defence and only defence can make some good for them. Football is weird game where single mistake can turnaround game. There are red card's, penalty kick's, free kick's and anything can happen. Dont forget that Mou will not be on the bench and it could make an impact of Real play. My opinion is that live betting is the best option in this game.[/quote'] Once again it getting cleared that you can not underestimate no one. Altough I haven't placed any bet it was real trap from bookies with all hose handicap's they offered for Real big win. DINAMO Å AMPION: :)
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: UEFA Champions League > 14 September

well, i must admit game Dinamo showed was a nice surprise. i laughed at Real Madrid for most of the game, they didnt show much in that one. Dinamo deserved more than 1 goal loss.
I noticed a lot of the group games were closer than people were expecting.
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