Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership

[Mirage]

The season gets underway again this coming Saturday and hopefully this weekend will be the first of many profitable ones in here :ok Not sure how big the following is for this league on the forum so suppose the ante-post and round by round bets can be put in here.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011 Aviva Premiership Keep it as one thread to begin with mate. If we get a lot of interest in the league then I'll split it up and we'll have weekly threads :ok.

[TheRat]

Good luck. Big Worcester fan, we have done really well this pre season but I was at the game yesterday against the pirates and despite it being a weaker side we were poor. Still think we will survive though and the world cup will benefit us.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Yeah i think Worcester will have enough to survive and really fear for Newcastle to be honest. I think 11th is realistically their best hope this season but 12th is more their probable finish. Who do you fancy for the title? I think Northampton are the most likely to beat last season's top 2 but it will be hard. Will post my ante-post thoughts tomorrow.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership These are my thoughts on all the sides. It isn't too in-depth as if it was i would probably go on for pages and pages but i think it's enough to justify my selections. Grand Final, Play-Offs and Regular Season Outrights 3/5pts Saracens to win the grand final - 4/1 with SkyBet 1/5pts Northampton to win the grand final - 4/1 with Betfred 1/5pts Wasps to make the play-offs - 5/1 with Paddy Power So, let's start with the teams i can't see doing anything this year. Newcastle will be rock bottom of the league in my opinion. They have been struggling for years, lost most of their star players over the last few seasons and haven't replaced them with enough quality. Exeter will find it hard to repeat their 8th placed finish, mainly because of 'second season syndrome'. Teams have watched the Chiefs a lot now so will have figured out how to go about stopping them and whilst i don't think they will finish 12th i think a finish of around 9th or 10th will be a good achievement as they look to cement their place in the league. Worcester will have enough to be competitive, mainly because they have the winning momentum in their squad to be able to get some good results early on. Their squad isn't too different to Newcastle's in a lot of ways but they are a club on the up whilst Newcastle can't seem to stop the rot. Sale have made a lot of changes and that can generate problems of a different kind because it will take time for them to gel and get used to playing with each other. They have let some quality players go too and i can see them being quite far away from the play-off places in terms of points. Harlequins have some quality players but will be severely weakened in the early stages of the campaing because of the World Cup. Their squad isn't the biggest so they will have to rely on a few of the younger players and that is far from ideal. They are also in Europe and that will stretch their squad so i can't see them being able to prevent burn-out come the last handful of games. London Irish have let a lot of players go but have also brought a lot in and overall i don't think their squad has improved too much. They were 6th last year and 9 points off 4th and i don't see them improving much on that effort. Gloucester were fantastic last season and nearly made the final but that will be hard to repeat this year. In the past they have prided themselves on having a strong forward line but they have let a few quality players go in that department and that is something i think they will regret. They will be challenging for a play-off place in my opinion but could fall just short. I don't see them as certainties for the top 4 anyways, around a 40% chance in my book. Bath, to me, don't offer much value. Yes, they have made some good signings in the likes of Hipkiss, Donald, Moody and Louw but they have lost influencial figures in the shape of James, Grewcock and Hape and they have also always had a problem with consistency too. Eastmond is an interesting signing but it will take time for him to adapt so i can't see him making an immediate impact. They do have a squad full of talent but it will take a massive change in mentaility throughout the squad for them to go from the 'nearly men' to title contenders. It could be a dangerous tactic but i am going to fade Leicester. The Tiger's had a disappointing year last time out and at the beginning of this term they will miss a lot of star players who are out in New Zealand. I think sides in and around them won't be as fearful of them as they have been in recent years and that will be a big danger to Cockerill's side. There is no doubting the fact that they will make the play-offs and from there they could do anything but at the prices i am definitely not siding with them. Wasps are my tip to make the biggest improvement this year and i think they will get to the play-off's. They have appointed a new coach and have brought in a good mix of experience and young talent. There have been major changes like there has been at Sale but i think the key difference here is that Wasps have a lot of room for improvement and if making a good start under a new coaching set-up they will be able to get back to somewhere near where they were a few years ago. The club is used to challenging for honours and that will be a major plus. Northampton will also be up there and, in my view, this is their best chance in a long time to do something special. They finished 4th last year and bringing in the likes of Lamb, Samoa and Doran-Jones will improve their side a lot as they are all proven performers. I like the look of their pack as it will give any side problems throughout the season and after finishing in the play-offs last term they have that experience of coming close that will help them come the end of the season. I think they are worth a small stake at slightly bigger odds than i think they should be. Saracens are my main selection as the defending Champions have kept their squad together and added 2 proven, class performers. Smit and Hodgson will improve the side and those 2 signings should send out a big warning to their rivals. The experience of winning the title last year means they are unlikely to crumble when it really matters and i can't see them losing many games at home or away. The confidence will be there and although the expectation is greater there are enough big players in the side to be able to cope with it.

[Spankyf]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Great write up Mirage:ok. I got me Setanta so i'll be watching the games too and will hopefully will be able to chip in with a few cents every so often.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership I have an interest in this league, but unless you follow it with commitment it's too difficult to make money, I don't like the way clubs are secondary to the international sides so they have to play games with out key players - and that's compounded this year with the Rugby World Cup still being followed by the Six Nations. It's great if you know how important specific players are to certain clubs. I tend to just play when the clubs are at or near to full strength, at least it cuts down on my guessing.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Great write ups mate. To be honest last season I only followed us and didn't watch the Prem in depth so don't really feel qualified to comment that much Can't wait though Good luck

[RedDevil92]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Northampton-Gloucester AH-5,5 1,83 4pts Northampton is a good team especially at home.Gloucester is missing 9 players due to injuries and the World Cup.This should be a good match for the Saints to start well into the season.Their preseason matches were good as they have beaten Russia,Toulouse and Leinster. GL:ok

[Drogba's Bitch]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Great start to the season yesterday, lets hope we have another good game today. All the write up is pinched from ESPN scrum Northampton v Gloucester Northampton and Gloucester will both be out to kick start their Premiership campaigns in a crucial early season clash at Franklin's gardens on Sunday. The Saints were edged out on two fronts last season with their quest for Heineken Cup glory ended in heart-breaking fashion by Leinster while Leicester sent them packing in the final four of the Premiership. The Cherry and Whites tasted glory in the Anglo-Welsh Cup last season but that will have done little to ease the disappointment of their Premiership semi-final defeat to Saracens. As a result both sides have something to prove heading into the new season but they find themselves in very different places on the eve of the campaign. The Saints have bolstered their ranks with the signings of proven Premiership quality in the guise of Noah Cato, Ryan Lamb, Tom May and Paul Doran-Jones. But they must struggle through the first few weeks of the season without many familiar key personnel with front-row tyros Dylan Hartley and Soane Tonga'uiha however among those on World Cup duty in New Zealand. Gloucester have lost a host of stellar names in more dramatic fashion with Doran-Jones, Dave Attwood and Nicky Robinson all heading for pastures new. In the past they have recruited international players in like-for-like deals but this time have opted for youngsters in a bid to cut the wage bill. However, they remain a talent-heavy squad and will hope to benefit from what was a gruelling campaign last time out. Northampton Saints - Player to Watch: With Soane Tonga'uiha on Rugby World Cup duty, Paul Doran Jones is tasked with filling his sizeable boots. Is the England international up to the task? Northampton Saints- Team News: Five of the Saints' new signings make their full club debut with Tom May, Noah Cato, Martin Roberts, Paul Doran Jones and Samu Manoa all set to start the match, with three more possible debutants, Mike Haywood, James Craig and Ryan Lamb, named on the replacements bench. Gloucester- Player to Watch: Winger Charlie Sharples was considered unlucky by many to miss out on England's World Cup squad but a series of eye-catching displays and an injury or two could see him yet grace the tournament in New Zealand. Gloucester- Team News: Peter Buxton will captain the Cherry and White with Jonny May lining up in the midfield alongside Lesley Vainikolo who gets an outing at inside centre. The back three is a familiar one in the shape of Olly Morgan, Sharples and James Simpson-Daniel while Tim Taylor gets the nod to start at fly-half outside Dave Lewis. Summer signing Dario Chistolini will make his first Premiership start at tight-head, packing down in a front row which also features Nick Wood and Darren Dawidiuk while there is plenty of experience in the back five. Of note amongst the replacements is hooker Nathan Charles who arrived in the country this week having signed a short term deal from the Western Force. Key Battle: Gloucester's back division is packed with talent and pace but will they see enough of the ball to wreak havoc? That depends on the Cherry and Whites' pack to stand toe-to-toe with a Saints forward unit that usually packs a punch but has a new-look for the new season. All above pretty much tells the story. Northampton added some good players to their already quality squad. Gloucester with 9 first teamers out will hurt them bad and have realied on youngsters in the squad. This may work with the youngsters stepping up their game and taking the chance but I think that Northampton will out power them. If the Saints pack get in control I can see them walking all over Gloucester. 2 handicap bets for me Northampton -5 1.91 (Stan James) Northampton -11 2.75 (Stan James)

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Price gone somewhat but have to agree on the Northampton pick with Gloucester in a bit of early trouble injury wise, and of course with Northampton expected to challenge for the title. Got -5 with Stan James 4/5 and all the lines are higher now with other firms. Since getting promoted back into the Prem Northampton have not lost a round one game (although we pushed them close!). This looks the call today, there is rain about and the worry would be a scrappy game but the forecast for there is good and -5 looks a tad low :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Frustrating that really. Northampton lacked the cutting edge to put the game to bed and were the better side. Gloucesters first try was a charge down and the second looked like it went forward somewhere! Oh well, next!

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Haven't been able to get on this weekend until now because of work. The early weeks could be a bit of a minefield betting-wise.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership My first involvement of the seaosn after missing last weekend and i can't wait to get stuck in. Will only be playing with small stakes for the first couple of weeks because some teams still have to gel whilst some also have a lot of players in New Zealand. Here are my thoughts..... Friday: Harlequins vs Northampton 2/5pts Northampton (+5 points) to beat Harlequins - 10/11 with SkyBet I was very tempted to take the Saints at 7/4 to win the match but i think it will be very close so have favoured going with a slightly big looking line. Both of these side's recorded wins last week in tight contests and i wouldn't be surprised if they were only seperated by a point of 2 come the final whistle tonight. The Stoop can be a bit intimidating for sides but generally the home side are there to be got at by the better teams and that showed in their record last season. At this exact stage last season Northampton visted Harlequins and picked up a win and Leicester and Saracens did exactly the same later on in the campaign. They won 7 of the 11 at home in the league and drew 1 so a good organised side is more than capable of going there and testing them. Last week there were a few new faces in the Northampton side and they did well considering they were up against a well drilled unit. They will come on from that and repeat performances from the likes of Myler, Nutley and Dowson will see them there or thereabouts here. Harlequins have players who can hurt teams too and that showed when picking up an impressive win away from home in round 1. Evans is a steady player whilst Monye will be a handful for many sides once again this year and they will be looking to attack tonight. They haven't changed much over the summer which means they won't need as much time to gel but it also means that teams go there knowing exactly what style of play to expect. I don't think either of these sides is a lot better than the other so i expect nothing other than a close game. On paper i would slightly favour Northampton and with a positive handicap i would definitely favour them to come out on top. The +/- 3 priced up by other bookies looks about right so i am happy to take the extra couple of points in the hope Northampton pick up from where they left off last week and go close tonight. Saturday: Gloucester vs Worcester 2/5pts Gloucester (-11 points) to beat Worcester - 10/11 with Paddy Power Worcester got a good win last week to register their first points of the season and that will have settled them down nicely. Their home form will decide whether or not they avoid being botom of the table come the end of the season and anything they get away from home will, the majority of the time, be a bonus. In this match i can't see them getting anything. In Sale they had the ideal opponents to start off against because Sale have completely re-built their side so are not all fully tuned in yet to the way they want to play. However here they come up against much, much tougher opposition. Gloucester have a very, very strong pack and will put Worcester in all kinds of awkward situations. They will put pressure on, get turnover ball and look to feed their hugley exciting back line. If Gloucester are to make the play-offs these are the types of games they need to be winning and picking up a bonus point in. It is early in the season so it may seem a bit dangerous to be taking them to overcome a large handicap line but they have the players there to make sure they outscore any side when it comes to scoring try's. Sharples, Vainikolo and Simpson-Daniel will get opportunites to run at Worcester mainly because i feel the Gloucester forwards will be that dominant that it will create the gaps in the away side's defence. They beat sides at home by 12 or more points a few times last term and i think it is a real possibility again here. I am happy to take Gloucester to overcome the handicap line but only with a small stake due to it being so early in the season.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership I thought the scoreline flattered Gloucs last week and they still have some players out. We have a decent record against them in recent years Gloucs 13-13 Worcs Worcs 22-23 Gloucs Worcs 14-10 Gloucs Gloucs 6-13 Worcs Gloucs 29-7 Worcs Worcs 17-14 Gloucs Wouldn't be convinced they would cover that spread in my opinion, they back line still looks solid though.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Good performance from Quins here, starving Nothampton of good opportunities. Monye has been fantastic.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Good shout Mirage on our game. Listened to the commentary and we sounded awful, lots of mistakes and penalties given away. Back to normal for us then!

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Thanks mate! I think Gloucester will bully a lot of teams at home this year because of the ability of the forwards to force turnover ball so it will be interesting to see the handicap against sides who i feel will play similarly to Worcester. Small loss on the weekend but nice to get a winner.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership A bit annoying but out of this weekend's 6 matches there is nothing that i can confidently justify taking :\ Leicester and Wasps are the only 2 that slightly appeal to me on the handicaps but there isn't enough there for me to be able to get involved with either. Depleted squads and patchy early season form is what has put me off a lot of sides. Oh well, i suppose discipline is key.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Saying a silmilar thing to last week where I was wrong, but we were beyond awful and I just can't see us being that bad again, it's just not possible. We have named the team early and make 6 changes to the side that got hammered by Gloucester. As a result though I think the line is high at +16 I don't expect us to win against the Champs of course but they have only covered this spread once against us since we have been in the Premiership two years ago at Wembley which I was at and the scoreline flattered them that day. Happy to take the 10/11 and hopeful of a reaction from the Warriors after the dismal display last weekend in front of the cameras.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Bet landed. Thought we did ok but too many penalties The ref for their second try was a disgrace. He literally guessed it was a score, was tight at the time

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Good call there, Saracens don't put many sides away as easy as handicap lines suggest so could be one to oppose on the high line throughout the campaign. The one's i was tempted by never came in so glad i sat out.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership I'm surprised on the start they've made to the season that Harlequins can be backed -4 paddy power 1.91 away to Worcester. Quins haven't had the best of times the last year or two, and they'll see this RWC period as a chance to steal a march on the better teams, given that they are sure to be up for this and should cover the handicap.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Should be a tight one tonight and i can't see anything worth getting involved with. I am on Northampton ante-post so will be cheering them on. Just the one for tomorrow. May get involved with Wasps on Sunday but will come back tomorrow night if i do as i haven't made my mind up yet. Saturday: Leicester vs Saracens 2/5pts Saracens to beat Leicester - 11/10 with William Hill This should be a cracker, despite both sides not being at full strength due to the World Cup. I am going to take Saracens to win as i think odds against represents a bit of value. Leicester have 12 players in New Zealand, players injured and have made a poor start to the campaign. They are forced to field an on-loan player in their starting line-up so it is easy to see just how thin they are in terms of players available. So far this term they have played 3 and won just 1 game and in each of those they have conceded points at an alarming rate. All the games have been tight but to let in 91 points in 3 matches is very poor for a side like Leicester and that is down to the quality they have available to cover for their stars. Last week i was far from impressed by them. Newcastle, like Exeter on the opening weekend, bullied them for sustained periods and found too many holes in the Tigers defence. If they do that against Saracens they will be in trouble yet again. Saracens come into this without the influencial Schalk Brits but i still feel the side is good enough to record an away win. Their style of play is exactly what Leicester don't need at the moment. The forwards will keep it tight and the pressure on the relatively inexperienced opposition fly-half will be a lot bigger than he has faced so far. In Charlie Hodgson Saracens have a man who i can see controlling the game for long periods. As i said, Leicester's defence hasn't been the greatest so far and Hodgson will look to exploit that with the likes of Goode, Strettle and Maddock in the backs. I can see Saracens bullying Leicester, putting pressure on the home side at the breakdown and with Hodgson in there they have people who can win the game for them. This is a good price so i am happy to take them.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership

I'm surprised on the start they've made to the season that Harlequins can be backed -4 paddy power 1.91 away to Worcester. Quins haven't had the best of times the last year or two, and they'll see this RWC period as a chance to steal a march on the better teams, given that they are sure to be up for this and should cover the handicap.

I fancy this to be a close one and wouldn't put anyone off backing Worcester on the handicap or even for the win. I was very impressed by Harlequins when i saw them against Northampton the other week but Worcester got a good win at home earlier this season and didn't disgrace themselves on the road last week. No bet for me as i wouldn't be surprised to see either side win.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership

Saturday: Leicester vs Saracens 2/5pts Saracens to beat Leicester - 11/10 with William Hill

Comfortable winner. +2.2 points for the day.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership And you got the Quins game right - good work Mirage. I saw the Exeter v Wasps game on Sunday - will a similar line-up be representing Wasps for the next couple of weeks, because they looked woeful.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Good work Mirage :clap:clap.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership

And you got the Quins game right - good work Mirage. I saw the Exeter v Wasps game on Sunday - will a similar line-up be representing Wasps for the next couple of weeks, because they looked woeful.

Never saw the Wasps game but they have a good opportunity to get back to winning ways when up at Newcastle at the weekend. I wouldn't be rushing to oppose them in that match. Will be interesting to see the Worcester - Northampton match betting and handicap lines for Friday.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby Union: 2011/12 Aviva Premiership Going to get my weekend bets in now as i am away for 10 days, starting this weekend, so won't be able to log back on from after tomorrow night. Just the one for me as the others are all well priced up in my view. Tempted to side with Sale and Wasps but there isn't enough in the odds for me to get involved. Friday: Worcester vs Northampton 3/5pts Northampton to beat Worcester - 10/11 with Paddy Power Been thinking about this match for a good while now and have decided to take Northampton to take the victory. The price is good enough for me. Northamton were beaten by Sale last Friday but the match wasn't as straightforward for the home side as the score suggests. Northampton contributed to their own downfall in many ways as they had the hosts on the ropes a few times but failed to capitalise enough to add scoreboard pressure. I thought their forwards, for the first hour anyway, were immense and there was one passage of play in particular to back that up when they were camped 5 metres from the try line and were only prevented from scoring a try by some good defending and, in my view, some weak refereeing. If they can get quicker ball to the backs and continue to add pressure at the breakdown they will continue to cause all teams problems. They could do without the needless fouls that they gave away last week though that eventually ended up with 2 of their players in the bin. I have said before that i think Worcester have more than enough to avoid the bottom spot and they have started ok with some good performances. However, i don't think their forward line are yet good enough to match the Saints. At Gloucester they gave away far too many penalties and that could happen again in this match where they could arguably face a tougher task when it comes to keeping their discipline at the breakdown. Northampton haven't had the greatest of starts but i think their performances have been ok a lot of the time and they could turn the corner here. If they add a try or 2 to make all the pressure on the opposition count they can come away with an away win on Friday night. I expect it to be a tight one.