Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

[western skies]

	Saturday 27 August 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Dunfermline Athletic v Motherwell (15:00 BST)	2.8	3.4	2.62	103.22 %
	Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Kilmarnock (15:00 BST)	2.38	3.4	3.15	103.17 %
	St Johnstone v Dundee United (15:00 BST)	2.55	3.4	2.9	103.11 %
	Sunday 28 August 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	St Mirren v Celtic (12:45 BST)	8.5	4.75	1.45	101.78 %
	Rangers v Aberdeen (15:00 BST)	1.28	6	11	103.54 %
	Hearts v Hibernian (15:45 BST)	1.83	3.55	5	102.71 %

[Kosher Readies]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August A trend is starting to develop in the SPL this season I feel with regards to goals in that of the 27 games played so far; 19 of them have went under 2.5 goals and only in only 8 of the 27 games both teams to score has paid off. With this in mind i will be selecting games from this weeks card and looking for where this can be exploited. Dunfermline v Motherwell Dunfermline have went under in 75% of there games so far this season, Motherwell have went under in 60% of there games. BTTS has not came off in any of M'wells games this season and has only came off once in Dunfermlines. Selections: Both teams to score? No. @ 1.83 with Bet365 - 2 units Under 2.5 goals @ 1.66 with Bet365 - 2 units Inverness v Kilmarnock Leaving this game alone as it has a history of goals for both teams and the teams have only went under this season 40% and 50% respectively. St Johnstone v Dundee United All of the home teams games have went under so far and 4 out of 5 of the away sides have. BTTS has not came up in any of the home teams games so far but has came up in 3 out of 5 of the away sides. Worth noting that the last 3 games between the two sides have ended 0-0, 0-1 and 0-1. Selections: Both teams to score? No. @ 1.80 with Bet365 - 3 units Under 2.5 goals @ 1.60 with Bet365 - 3 units St Mirren v Celtic Home side have went under 80% of their games and away side 75% of their games. BTTS has came up in 2 out of 5 for the home team and only 1 out of 4 for the away team. Add to this Celtic struggling for goals at the moment and the last 4 games between the sides have ended 0-1, 2-0, 2-0 and 0-1. Always more tricky with one of the Glasgow teams to predice as there is always potential for a hiding but odds increased due to this. Selections: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 with Bet365 - 2 units BTTS? No. @ 1.66 with Bet365 - 3 units Rangers v AberdeenWill just play the Both teams not to score bet with this game as this has the potential to be a bit of a hiding for a very poor looking Aberdeen team. 1 out of 4 of the home teams games so far has the BTTS paid off and only 1 out of 5 of the away sides. Selections: BTTS? No. @ 1.70 with Bet365 - 2 units Hearts v Hibs Will be a bit more cautious with this game as it is a derby and 'anything can happen'. 4 out of Hearts 5 games so far have went under and half of Hibs have went under. 7 out of last 8 games between the teams have also went under. Also in those 8 games, BTTS has only paid off once. Selections: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70 with Bet365 - 1.5 units BTTS? No. @ 1.72 with Bet365 - 1.5 units Bit of an experiment this weekend but hopefully will pay off as I have staked 20 units in total. Any thoughts/opinions welcome. Will also copy this into the Systems Forum if it is still going.

[1875]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August Hearts vs Hibernian As a hibs man im going with my head on this one and tipping Hearts to win the edinburgh derby on sunday. A win up in Inverness has just covered up some of the cracks in Hibs season so far. Decimated by Celtic in the opening round, Followed by a 90+ min winner in Inverness before being ripped apart by Kilmarnock (1-5)and losing to St.Mirren at home (1-2). A midweek win against 3rd division Berwick (5-0 at Easter Road) was good from a Hibs perspective and for confidence but the standard off the opposition will be much tougher on sunday and anytime this Hibs team have really been tested so far they have failed to turn up. Hearts haven't had the best of starts to the season either mind you, but they have changed there manager and brought in 3 or 4 very good players over the summer which added to the squad that finished 3rd last year losing only Left back Lee Wallace. Hearts face Tottenham on thursday night in the europa game but It should be taken into consideration the lack of travelling and with Tottenham already leading 5-0 making the contest all but over. Hibs don't have a good record against Hearts at Tynecastle winning only 3 off the last 20 visits, drawing 6 and Hearts winning 11, including the last 2. Ive decided to take this one early as I expect the price to drop by sunday. Hearts @ 1.83 (Coral). Hearts -1 @ 3.10 (Bet365).

[Lennox]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August Anyone who loves Scottish football will be suffering a serious hangover today. Best way to recover? Make some money! Dunfermline v Motherwell: Motherwell (0AH) @ 1.855 with Pinnacle (5/10) I said last week that Dunfermline had ridden their luck so far and a visit to Dundee United was the right time to oppose them. I was wrong. Second Division side East Fife were the ones to turn them over in the cup on Tuesday night. I wonder if that could spark a slump. Don't really like to consider 'luck' in betting, and credit must be given to the Pars for a fine start to the season, but I'm convinced a hiding is just around the corner. How they managed to leave Tannadice with all three points is anyone's guess. They were battered for 90 minutes, before snatching the winner with their only chance of the match. St Johnstone and St Mirren before United will feel they should have beaten Dunfermline, while Caley did put 3 past them, but couldn't defend themselves. Fair play to Jim McIntyre's side, that can happen in football, but I can't see them getting away with it against Motherwell. The Fir Park men have been clinical this season. Jamie Murphy is developing into a really good player, while Michael Higdon is starting to adapt to the way 'Well play. Nicky Law and Chris Humphreys are also serious trouble makers. They're tough in midfield and at the back, and while the first XI is fit and fresh, I'll be backing them against most SPL sides. Sure, when injuries and suspensions start to tally up, they'll struggle (as will the rest), but until then it's hard to see past them. Stuart McCall has them playing with a swagger. Rangers put three past them last week, but they played well and that defeat won't have dented confidence. And even if it did, a 4-0 win at Clyde in the cup midweek will have restored the feel-good factor. Good price with full draw insurance. Inverness CT v Kilmarnock: Kilmarnock (+0.25AH) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (3/10) Bit surprised to see Caley as the favourites here. I can't think of a single reason to back Terry Butcher's side at the moment. The Highlanders are in a transitional period, having dispensed with most of their experienced heads in the summer, and the newcomers haven't adapted to SPL football. They were turned over by First Division Ayr United in the cup midweek with a more or less full-strength team, with Butcher questioning his side's guts; something he'd never have said before this season. I think he has signed some decent players, but there's a naivety about them that most in the SPL will take advantage of. Got to admit I underestimated Killie. I thought Kenny Shiels was out of his depth and hadn't bought good enough players to replace those who left; going on the evidence so far, I was wrong. They're playing some lovely football, and were unlucky not to beat Hearts last week after turning Hibs over 4-1 the previous Sunday. James Dayton looks a real find on the wings, while Paul Heffernan will score goals at this level. Caley's defence has been all over the place, and Killie have the talent to punish them. Good luck if you play this weekend! :ok

[Atko]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August Three bets so far in the SPL for me ... could well be more. - Over 2.25 goals in Dunfermline v Motherwell @ 2.00 with Pinnacle Like Lennox, I was considering the Steelmen with full draw cover, but that price has plummeted and I feel one must respect the Pars' recent form. I do, however, like the over 2.25 goal line, which for me should be a lot lower in terms of price. Motherwell are a naturally attacking side. They play 4-4-2 with Murphy and Higdon as able converters of supply from wingers Humphrey and Law. They could, in my opinion, cover this line on their own. Dunfermline are also a naturally attacking side who play with width. This game should be stretched, and I can see both creating chances. Kirk is a real poacher, capable of scoring goals for Dunfermline, while they always carry a threat from set-plays with Hardie. I too feel they've been over-reliant on Gallacher in goal, but Motherwell's attackers aren't as profligate as Dundee Utd's, and I feel they'll breach their opponent's goal a couple of times. Dunfermline won't sit back if they fall behind. This match has the right ingredients, for me, for overs. - Kilmarnock +0.25AH v Inverness @ 1.926 with Pinnacle Intrigued to hear a bookie's reasoning for making Inverness such big favourites for this clash. Surely a level 0AH line at best? I think Inverness are a bit of a state right now. They are very poor defensively and have also failed to replace the goals of Rooney - neither Tade or Foran are as composed or as clinical. Their most proactive player, Hayes, is more than likely out with a shoulder injury, which hampers them somewhat. Kilmarnock are in a good place. A thumping win over Hibs (who, for what it's worth, beat ICT at the Caley Stadium) followed by a draw at Hearts confirms that they have plenty of ability. Defensively they are still a wee bit suspect, but I don't think Inverness have the tools to trouble them. Killie have Dayton and Silva on the flanks, who are very dangerous, the former especially, while Shiels and Harkins offer able support for Heffernan, who is going to score against the league's weaker sides. I can't see any reason to offer Kilmarnock at such generous odds on a plus. Very close to napping on this, a definite hit. - Over 2.25 goals in Hearts v Hibernian @ 1.935 with Pinnacle First Edinburgh derby of the season. To be honest, I currently make Hearts a bet, but there's a nag in my mind that says Hibs will be very competitve in this one, and there's also the fact Hearts played in Europe. Yes, Hibs have started the season poorly, but their attacking play has been very good. O'Connor is one of the best forwards in this league and will score, and it's likely either Sodje, who caused Hearts problems last season, or Griffiths, if he signs from Wolves in time, will partner him. Hearts aren't bombproof - Webster and Zaliukas are prone to mistakes, and their SPL start hasn't been that of last year. They, too, will also get chances. Skacel, Elliott, Templeton, Driver and Sutton will all profit from Hibs' comical defending this season. Towell comes in for the visitors at right-back and O'Hanlon, a more experienced and dominant centre-back returns, but there are still question marks over Booth's defensive abilities. Hearts will attack, as is their habit at Tynecastle, and I can see them scoring. Thing is, Hibs aren't impotent either, and could well breach Kello themselves. Quite often this match is an early kick-off, which breeds unders. At 3.45pm, and a big atmosphere, this could well make it a much more open match. Overs, for me, is the call. :hope

[kevpar]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August Dunfermline v Motherwell - Make no bones about it this has been a fantastic start for my beloved pars. We have as has been mentioned above rode our luck on more than one occasion this season. Gallagher has been outstanding in goals saving 2 crucial penos. I never bet on my own side but feel that this might be the game where our luck runs out. Motherwell are a super team that will cause us all sorts of problems. The pars play 4-5-1 away from home but when we are at East end park we more often than not line up 4-3-3 / 4-4-2. We will have a go at Motherwell tmmrw!, and why not. As mentioned by atko Motherwell also like to attack and the overs seems more then likely given we will play with 2 strikers and 2 wide men now we are back at home. 3-3 against Inverness in our last home match gives a soild pointer as to our attacking approach when playing at home. I do fancy Motherwell to sneak the 3 points but it wont be easy. I do however expect goals and Over 2.5 looks sweet at 6/5 with Bet 365.

[Atko]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

- Over 2.25 goals in Dunfermline v Motherwell @ 2.00 with Pinnacle - Kilmarnock +0.25AH v Inverness @ 1.926 with Pinnacle

Dunfermline 2-4 Motherwell - :ok Inverness 2-1 Kilmarnock - :@ Late goal from Inverness means it's a break-even day. Total market manipulation in the DAFC-Well match, good work from all.

[Lennox]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

Dunfermline v Motherwell: Motherwell (0AH) @ 1.855 with Pinnacle (5/10) Inverness CT v Kilmarnock: Kilmarnock (+0.25AH) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (3/10)

Dunfermline 2-4 Motherwell - WIN Inverness CT 2-1 Kilmarnock - LOSS Last-minute heartbreak in the Highlands for me too. Reasonable profit for the day though. :ok

[Kosher Readies]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August Wow my bets have got off to a horrendous start! Hardly any goals about the first few weeks but once you bet the goals start firing in from all angles! Sods law I suppose.

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August Big single on Hearts for me today at 3/4 with paddy power Hearts have a strong all round team and a stronger team than hibs imo , hibs are at the foot of the table already loosing to st mirren and getting hammered by kilmarnock , hearts played really well on the opening day v rangers and i think they will have to much for hibs!

[bastia]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

Sport	Football (Scotland)
Event	Rangers - Aberdeen
Selection	Aberdeen +1 (Asian-handicap) (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	28/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.45
Reasoning	After that all Scotland teams was eliminated from EL, Rangers lost the chance to go forward with Maribor, a big surprise now is time for a good match in front of the own fans, so I expect a extra motivation for Rangers for proving that this elimination from EL was just an accident; they meet the perfect team for make score today, Abredeen is a inconstant team, no chances for them today here. My tip 3-0! Good luck!

[bastia]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

Sport	Football (Scotland)
Event	Rangers - Aberdeen
Selection	Aberdeen +1 (Asian-handicap) (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	28/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.45
Reasoning	After that all Scotland teams was eliminated from EL, Rangers lost the chance to go forward with Maribor, a big surprise now is time for a good match in front of the own fans, so I expect a extra motivation for Rangers for proving that this elimination from EL was just an accident; they meet the perfect team for make score today, Abredeen is a inconstant team, no chances for them today here. My tip 3-0! Good luck!

a late 2-0 but a win; :cheers

[Kosher Readies]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

A trend is starting to develop in the SPL this season I feel with regards to goals in that of the 27 games played so far; 19 of them have went under 2.5 goals and only in only 8 of the 27 games both teams to score has paid off. With this in mind i will be selecting games from this weeks card and looking for where this can be exploited. Dunfermline v Motherwell Dunfermline have went under in 75% of there games so far this season, Motherwell have went under in 60% of there games. BTTS has not came off in any of M'wells games this season and has only came off once in Dunfermlines. Selections: Both teams to score? No. @ 1.83 with Bet365 - 2 units:( Under 2.5 goals @ 1.66 with Bet365 - 2 units:( Inverness v Kilmarnock Leaving this game alone as it has a history of goals for both teams and the teams have only went under this season 40% and 50% respectively. St Johnstone v Dundee United All of the home teams games have went under so far and 4 out of 5 of the away sides have. BTTS has not came up in any of the home teams games so far but has came up in 3 out of 5 of the away sides. Worth noting that the last 3 games between the two sides have ended 0-0, 0-1 and 0-1. Selections: Both teams to score? No. @ 1.80 with Bet365 - 3 units:( Under 2.5 goals @ 1.60 with Bet365 - 3 units:( St Mirren v Celtic Home side have went under 80% of their games and away side 75% of their games. BTTS has came up in 2 out of 5 for the home team and only 1 out of 4 for the away team. Add to this Celtic struggling for goals at the moment and the last 4 games between the sides have ended 0-1, 2-0, 2-0 and 0-1. Always more tricky with one of the Glasgow teams to predice as there is always potential for a hiding but odds increased due to this. Selections: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 with Bet365 - 2 units:nana BTTS? No. @ 1.66 with Bet365 - 3 units:nana Rangers v AberdeenWill just play the Both teams not to score bet with this game as this has the potential to be a bit of a hiding for a very poor looking Aberdeen team. 1 out of 4 of the home teams games so far has the BTTS paid off and only 1 out of 5 of the away sides. Selections: BTTS? No. @ 1.70 with Bet365 - 2 units:nana Hearts v Hibs Will be a bit more cautious with this game as it is a derby and 'anything can happen'. 4 out of Hearts 5 games so far have went under and half of Hibs have went under. 7 out of last 8 games between the teams have also went under. Also in those 8 games, BTTS has only paid off once. Selections: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70 with Bet365 - 1.5 units:nana BTTS? No. @ 1.72 with Bet365 - 1.5 units:nana Bit of an experiment this weekend but hopefully will pay off as I have staked 20 units in total. Any thoughts/opinions welcome. Will also copy this into the Systems Forum if it is still going.

Awful Saturday, recovered a bit today. 20 units staked, 17.51 returned. Money to be made in the SPL in goal markets I think it's just trying to pick the correct games.

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

Big single on Hearts for me today at 3/4 with paddy power Hearts have a strong all round team and a stronger team than hibs imo , hibs are at the foot of the table already loosing to st mirren and getting hammered by kilmarnock , hearts played really well on the opening day v rangers and i think they will have to much for hibs!

2-0 :nana

[1875]

Re: Scotland > Weekend > SPL > 27-28 August

Hearts vs Hibernian As a hibs man im going with my head on this one and tipping Hearts to win the edinburgh derby on sunday. A win up in Inverness has just covered up some of the cracks in Hibs season so far. Decimated by Celtic in the opening round, Followed by a 90+ min winner in Inverness before being ripped apart by Kilmarnock (1-5)and losing to St.Mirren at home (1-2). A midweek win against 3rd division Berwick (5-0 at Easter Road) was good from a Hibs perspective and for confidence but the standard off the opposition will be much tougher on sunday and anytime this Hibs team have really been tested so far they have failed to turn up. Hearts haven't had the best of starts to the season either mind you, but they have changed there manager and brought in 3 or 4 very good players over the summer which added to the squad that finished 3rd last year losing only Left back Lee Wallace. Hearts face Tottenham on thursday night in the europa game but It should be taken into consideration the lack of travelling and with Tottenham already leading 5-0 making the contest all but over. Hibs don't have a good record against Hearts at Tynecastle winning only 3 off the last 20 visits, drawing 6 and Hearts winning 11, including the last 2. Ive decided to take this one early as I expect the price to drop by sunday. Hearts @ 1.83 (Coral).:ok Hearts -1 @ 3.10 (Bet365):ok.

2-0.