Tennis 22-28 August

[mebit]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

I think there are a lot of potential spots to make money today in the USopen qualifiers. Here are my picks ( though I might have to change my mind if Dory comes along and picks the opposite haha) 1)THE CANADIAN DOUBLE! FRANK DANCEVIC X STEPHANIE DUBOIS AT 8-11. Dancevic plays wolmarans and dubois plays malek. Dancevic has qualified for all three of the grand slams this year and done so comfortably. He is one of the class acts of the field and won comfortably against tricky veteran arnaud clement in the first round, he should have too much class for big serving wolmarans who he has already beaten this year in south africa. Dubois plays malek who is a potentially dangerous opponent (malek has been out of form now for the best part of a year at least now) Dubois is the opposie, she's in very good form and I expect her too be too consistent for the erratic malek. 3 POINTS 2)soler espinosa to beat E kostova at evens bet365 2 points. soler espinosa is renowned as a clay courter but I see enough in her results to believe that she can play on all surfaces. For example, she reached the 3rd round of qualifying at wimbledon before having to retire to Erakovic. At the french open she waltzed through qualification at the french open beating the likes of diatchenko and then vesnina in the first round of the main draw. She has posted a number of impressive clay court results this year. She beat last years main draw second rounder, sally peers, comfortably in the first round here which bodes well. I havent seen Kostova play admittedly, but i see nothing in her results to suggest she's a level ahead of espinosa (she's 21 now too so it's not like she's coming out of nowhere). Krystina Pliskova is about the only player of note that she's beaten and she's had losses to meusburger, burnett, bertens and Savinykh of late. She's obviously no mug, but just can't see how she can be favourite against soler espinosa here.

This is a match I think you should approach with caution and probably rethink. I believe it will be somewhat misguided to try to figure out the winner from factors like who they have beaten of late. Remember you can only defeat what is set out before you. Kostova has a more proven winning habit and has momemtum having recently won an ITF tournament in Vale De Lobo. She also did have a convincing first round win. I am not saying for sure that Kostova will win, but it is certainly not the kind of match that you should be giving vulnerable punters to get involved in. Verdict: Very risky proposition. There are other games for sure.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

This is a match I think you should approach with caution and probably rethink. I believe it will be somewhat misguided to try to figure out the winner from factors like who they have beaten of late. Remember you can only defeat what is set out before you. Kostova has a more proven winning habit and has momemtum having recently won an ITF tournament in Vale De Lobo. She also did have a convincing first round win. I am not saying for sure that Kostova will win' date=' but it is certainly not the kind of match that you should be giving vulnerable punters to get involved in. Verdict: Very risky proposition. There are other games for sure.[/quote'] Yeah, you could be right mate. I probably fell in love with the price a bit... i guess for me it's more of a value bet because i don't see how Kostova merits being the favourite. Having said that there is a lot of unknown variables at play here, one being the fact that I've never seen Kostova play although I did state these facts on my post. It's up to punters whether they want to follow or not. Anyone who posts a tip which they believe is leaving themselves vulnerable to a backlash I suppose. But you've put enough doubt in my mind to persuade me to cover my bet with minimum damage. It's up to any other punter to do the same now and I apologise to those who have to take the 5-6 available on Kostova with Paddypower to cover their bet.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

This is a match I think you should approach with caution and probably rethink. I believe it will be somewhat misguided to try to figure out the winner from factors like who they have beaten of late. Remember you can only defeat what is set out before you. Kostova has a more proven winning habit and has momemtum having recently won an ITF tournament in Vale De Lobo. She also did have a convincing first round win. I am not saying for sure that Kostova will win' date=' but it is certainly not the kind of match that you should be giving vulnerable punters to get involved in. Verdict: Very risky proposition. There are other games for sure.[/quote'] This is what this forum is all about though. People post up bets with their reasoning, others write back with their thoughts too. It allows those who fancy a bet to decide what's right for them and what's not. You have four types of punter, more or less, who looks at this thread: one who is looking for a tip, one who is looking for someone to write about a match they may be thinking of betting on for clarification/debate, one who follows a certain posters and then there's the one who comes here because they enjoy the chat and might pick up a nugget on the way. I suppose what I'm trying to say is don't be afraid to question a pick, as long as it's sensibly and sensitively done, but at the same time, don't be afraid to stick to your guns or re-evaluate accordingly. The above is a really good example of what's good about this.

[dory24]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August Cheers everyone. Been a good few days so far - hopefully can keep it going today. Pospisil x Grigelis both to win - 2.1 @ Paddy Power Spoke yesterday about Grigelis, who is the youngest direct entrant in the draw this year. He hammered the very poor Kellner yesterday and will be looking to continue his progress here. Knittel beat Zverev, but it was far more a case of Zverev beating himself as he was absolutely dire. Knittel's history on hard courts is nothing to write home about and the youngster should be able to do the job. Pospisil has been in good form recently, reaching the semi-final of the challenger in Vancouver before beating Chela and putting up a good performance against Federer in Montreal. Brezac is a fighter, but has been in relatively poor form this year. Had a decent win against the American wildcard Kosakowski in the first round, but Pospisil is a completely different proposition. In addition, Pospisil beat Brezac in qualifying back for the Australian Open at the beginning of the year as well, and is playing much better now than he was then. Tsung-Hua Yang to beat Conor Niland - 2.1 @ Bet365 Niland won his first round qualifying match for the third year running, continuing the good form that saw him qualify for Wimbledon earlier in the summer. However, he has struggled more on the hard courts this year with only two victories, one being against the world number 890. Yang plays predominantly in the Asian challenger tournaments and has been in good form recently, reaching the semis in Wuhai and the final in Beijing. He had an impressive win in the first round here, beating the big South African, Izak van der Merwe, for the loss of only three games. He tends to stick to the hard courts, so should be at home in this match. Rogerio Dutra da Silva 2-0 against Adrian Menendez-Maceiras - 2.2 @ Bet365 Menendez-Maceiras somehow struggled past Alex Waske in the first round, saving a match point against the German, who was playing his first match since 2008. He has somehow made the semis of a challenger tournament on hard courts this year, but his performance yesterday merely proves that his current ranking of 253 is about right. Dutra da Silva saw off Clement Reix in straight sets to reach this stage. Won a challenger on the hard courts earlier this month back in his native Brazil and reached the semis in Ecuador last month as well. He has been in good form over the past couple of months and will be hopeful of reaching his first ever Grand Slam main draw. Camila Giorgi 2-0 against Reka-Luca Jani - 2.5 @ Bet365 Slightly surprisingly for an Italian, Giorgi seems at home on the hard courts. In the past 12 months on the hard, she has won two ITF tournaments, as well as reaching the semis in the Bronx earlier this month. Started slowly in her first round match against Monticone, but improved as the match went on and will fancy her chances her. Qualified for her first Grand Slam at Wimbledon earlier in the summer and will be eyeing up a place here as well. Jani shocked the Iryna Bremond in the first round in only her sixth match on hard courts, and her first in over two years. She tends to stick purely to the clay and will be far less comfortable with the speed of the courts than her opponent here.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

- Andy Roddick -4 games AH v Juan Monaco @ 1.80 with Pinnacle - Robin Haase +2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.855 with Pinnacle

Roddick d. Monaco 6-1 6-4 - WIN Haase d. Dolgopolov 6-4 6-4 - WIN Perfect way to get the ball rolling again. Some good calls from the lads in the US Open qualifiers too :ok

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August Think I have to back roddick in the semi v isner I really don't like isner except for the fact a tie break is guaranteed in all his matches! Surely roddick will want to win another trophy as he gets on in his years and career Rod defo has more to his game and seems he's playing pretty well with few decent 2-0 wins recently. Odds of 1.6 appeal to me so little dabble on that aswell as 2-1 at 4.2 just in case John does win a set. Good luck all

[Jack Meehoff]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August Dory, post ya picks please :bignana

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August I'll get involved in today's final in Winston Salem ... - John Isner -3.5 games v Julien Benneteau @ 1.855 with Pinnacle 4pts I doff my chapeau in Benneteau's direction for his amazing effort to get to the final, but surely, surely, he's goosed here. He made it through the qualies and had to battle through two three-set epics to make it to the final. He wasn't off court until pretty late in the evening against Haase and I do feel fatigue will set in. Moreover, Isner is in form and wants to win this badly. He's from Greensboro, which is only 40kms or so from Winston-Salem, and he's spoken this week about how he wants to do well in his 'home' event. He was very assured against Roddick yesterday and is serving, and returning, well. Benneteau coughs up gifts from time to time on serve and will be put under pressure. The crowd will also be for Isner, which could make a difference as well. Overall, Isner has more things going for him, and is, in my book, a worthy favourite for this match. He should cover this line. :hope

[mebit]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

I'll get involved in today's final in Winston Salem ... - John Isner -3.5 games v Julien Benneteau @ 1.855 with Pinnacle 4pts I doff my chapeau in Benneteau's direction for his amazing effort to get to the final, but surely, surely, he's goosed here. He made it through the qualies and had to battle through two three-set epics to make it to the final. He wasn't off court until pretty late in the evening against Haase and I do feel fatigue will set in. Moreover, Isner is in form and wants to win this badly. He's from Greensboro, which is only 40kms or so from Winston-Salem, and he's spoken this week about how he wants to do well in his 'home' event. He was very assured against Roddick yesterday and is serving, and returning, well. Benneteau coughs up gifts from time to time on serve and will be put under pressure. The crowd will also be for Isner, which could make a difference as well. Overall, Isner has more things going for him, and is, in my book, a worthy favourite for this match. He should cover this line. :hope

That fingers-crossed sign will have to keep fighting for you all the way to achieve this feat. We all expected benneteau to die last match when we confidently thought he had run out of petrol, but he has somehow managed to cover a very long distance on his reserves. Who is to say how big or small his reserve is? The problem with this match is this; you can only reach one conclusion no matter how you view it. -3.5 Isner. It definately gives me the creeps and certainly creates a scenario for a public bet. I have a sneaky feeling that Benneteau will die quite alright but take a lot of punters with him to the grave(figuratively speaking). Is there really some sort of destiny tied to this or has Benneteau just been lucky for nothing? I am inclined to throw down the gauntlet to Benneteau and make him prove his superman status if he has the balls.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August :lol

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

That fingers-crossed sign will have to keep fighting for you all the way to achieve this feat. We all expected benneteau to die last match when we confidently thought he had run out of petrol' date=' but he has somehow managed to cover a very long distance on his reserves. Who is to say how big or small his reserve is? The problem with this match is this; you can only reach one conclusion no matter how you view it. -3.5 Isner. It definately gives me the creeps and certainly creates a scenario for a public bet. I have a sneaky feeling that Benneteau will die quite alright but take a lot of punters with him to the grave(figuratively speaking). Is there really some sort of destiny tied to this or has Benneteau just been lucky for nothing? I am inclined to throw down the gauntlet to Benneteau and make him prove his superman status if he has the balls.[/quote'] Interesting post. Firstly, I think it's a little careless to say "we all expected Benneteau to die in the last match". I didn't see any tips suggesting Haase would win and certainly, I afforded the Frenchman enough respect not to get involved. In fact, I've swerved all of Benneteau's matches this week up until now, a big blessing indeed. Now, however, is the time for me to go against him. Benneteau will be tired, that I have no question of. It's only natural. He's actually got to the final without beating anyone special. Andreev, Stakhovsky and Haase aren't as good as Isner, and Isner has defeated Nieminen, Baghdatis and Roddick along the way. I'd argue Benneteau is the least strongest out of his opponents to date. The Frenchman has made life tough for himself because his serve often crumbles. Isner may or may not cover the line. There are no certainties. I think he will, though. He's got a good chance. He's fresher, has a bigger serve and is playing in front of a home crowd. I've put my cash down and if it loses, like my bets do on occasion, then I'll take it on the chin and move on. I've priced my market, done my research and I like what I see. The price should be -4, in my book, at 1.95. There will be no regrets, as always, if the bet loses though. Good luck, whether you oppose or back the superman :ok

[mebit]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

Interesting post. Firstly, I think it's a little careless to say "we all expected Benneteau to die in the last match". I didn't see any tips suggesting Haase would win and certainly, I afforded the Frenchman enough respect not to get involved. In fact, I've swerved all of Benneteau's matches this week up until now, a big blessing indeed. Now, however, is the time for me to go against him. Benneteau will be tired, that I have no question of. It's only natural. He's actually got to the final without beating anyone special. Andreev, Stakhovsky and Haase aren't as good as Isner, and Isner has defeated Nieminen, Baghdatis and Roddick along the way. I'd argue Benneteau is the least strongest out of his opponents to date. The Frenchman has made life tough for himself because his serve often crumbles. Isner may or may not cover the line. There are no certainties. I think he will, though. He's got a good chance. He's fresher, has a bigger serve and is playing in front of a home crowd. I've put my cash down and if it loses, like my bets do on occasion, then I'll take it on the chin and move on. I've priced my market, done my research and I like what I see. The price should be -4, in my book, at 1.95. There will be no regrets, as always, if the bet loses though. Good luck, whether you oppose or back the superman :ok

It proved to be exactly what it was matey! The superman turned up!! I dont think it really mattered whether you were among the people that thought benneteau will die or not in the previous round. The fact is that you still bought into that same school of reasoning which was ongoing. you were also still affected by the resulting effect of Benneteau's defiance of natural laws and simple reasoning.

[Lennox]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August Poor form Mebit. Show some class mate.

[mebit]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

Poor form Mebit. Show some class mate.

My apologies! I really did not expect it to spill on you.

[Morris]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August Schuettler to beat Gabashvili @ 1.83 Paddy Power. Im liking the look of Schettler in this tournament and he has only dropped one set which was a close 1st set in his semi final vs Jamie Baker. On the other hand Gabashvili seems to be making heavy work of it, with a few 3 setters. I think in a match rated '50/50' by the bookmaker the German can win. GL.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

It proved to be exactly what it was matey! The superman turned up!! I dont think it really mattered whether you were among the people that thought benneteau will die or not in the previous round. The fact is that you still bought into that same school of reasoning which was ongoing. you were also still affected by the resulting effect of Benneteau's defiance of natural laws and simple reasoning.

it's funny how mebit has such selective memory here.... he seems to relish belittling other punters.... i posted a tip for soler-espinosa to beat kostova in the second round of us open qualies...he critised the bet calling it very suspect and unfair to vulnerable punters. This is fair enough, though the tone of the post was quite condescending. However, if you're going to have a 'know-it-all' attitude when you're 'warnings' turn out to be true, you should be humble enough to admit when you're wrong. Soler-espinosa won comfortably in straights..in hindsight, his reasoning was very suspect too,as he stated that kostova has a more proven winning record and that she can only beat whats in front of her, yet i pointed out that she had recorded recent losses to inferior opponents to soler espinosa ..yet there is no doubt in my mind that if she lost we would have been seeing a 'told you so' post from mebit. I dont really mind other punters questioning my picks or anybody elses...it has to be good for the forum but it should be done in a humble manner and if you are going to have the 'i told you so' attitude when you are right, then you should be prepared to admit when you're wrong too. Honestly, I've been wrong plenty of times in the past too and this is not a boast but I felt compelled to post it...cos mebit's attitude is sickening here...berating a well-respected and humble punter in atko. I also could be wrong about mebit....i could be too quick too judge...and if i am I'll eat my humble pie.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August You are not wrong at all mate. He'd do better to cut out the bullshit riddles and highlight his bets for all to see, rather than mentioning stuff in passing hence covering himself either way.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

It proved to be exactly what it was matey! The superman turned up!! I dont think it really mattered whether you were among the people that thought benneteau will die or not in the previous round. The fact is that you still bought into that same school of reasoning which was ongoing. you were also still affected by the resulting effect of Benneteau's defiance of natural laws and simple reasoning.

I was all for coming on here and congratulating you on your almost superman-like premonitions ... but I'm not sure I will now. You are a sanctamonious little prick by the sounds of it. However, I look forward to your picks at the US Open. Let's see what you're made of then. I got it wrong yesterday, but I have no regrets, and I'll take it on the chin. I'd like to think I'll find a winner soon enough. What the result proved is perhaps even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while ...

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

I was all for coming on here and congratulating you on your almost superman-like premonitions ... but I'm not sure I will now. You are a sanctamonious little prick by the sounds of it. However' date=' I look forward to your picks at the US Open. Let's see what you're made of then. I got it wrong yesterday, but I have no regrets, and I'll take it on the chin. I'd like to think I'll find a winner soon enough. What the result proved is perhaps [b']even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while ...

Especially if they are gay, they just have that intuition ;) But yeah, if you're so keen on taking others' picks apart, only way to show that you know far better is to post picks for the US open and prove us all wrong.

[mebit]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

I was all for coming on here and congratulating you on your almost superman-like premonitions ... but I'm not sure I will now. You are a sanctamonious little prick by the sounds of it. However' date=' I look forward to your picks at the US Open. Let's see what you're made of then. I got it wrong yesterday, but I have no regrets, and I'll take it on the chin. I'd like to think I'll find a winner soon enough. What the result proved is perhaps even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while ...[/quote'] Firstly, I will not condescend to the splattering of insults with you as I deem it to be somewhat debasing. You just might generate a bit more respect from me by spell-checking before posting. We only need to go back to our original posts to tackle the roots of this mediocre-enabled deliberation. You posted your selection in which I generally replied by agreeing with you. In fact all I pointed out in my post was for the benefit of both of us who were bent on playing the -3.5 Isner. You would have had every right to post what I deemed an ingenious sarcastic reply had I not been on your side. In the end the very point I tried to make to you turned out to be spot on. Isner won with the -3.5 being of no consequential importance contrary to your research results. My post was really meant to simulate the product of our joint reasoning against the clear opposition that was lurking in the air at the time. It was to prod you into reassessing your decision to go Isner-3.5 against a very powerful factor(public bet). Why are we on this forum if our contributions cannot be collectively enhancing? I believe you responded the way you did because you did not appreciate your already programmed careful research challenged, and preferred to terminate the dialog by polite antagonism. You may beg to defer on this, but I am no kid. I do not claim to know it all as has been loosely pointed out. I am just the sort of person that seeks to constantly learn by challenging the status quo and ideologies behind certain reasonings. People most times just cannot stand to be criticized. It just churns their stomachs. That is the reason why I have come on here to place my picks. I want to interact, be challenged, and be provoked to bring out the best in me.

[mebit]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

I was all for coming on here and congratulating you on your almost superman-like premonitions ... but I'm not sure I will now. You are a sanctamonious little prick by the sounds of it. However' date=' I look forward to your picks at the US Open. Let's see what you're made of then. I got it wrong yesterday, but I have no regrets, and I'll take it on the chin. I'd like to think I'll find a winner soon enough. What the result proved is perhaps even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while ...[/quote'] Can I just point out that there was nothing "almost" about my prediction? It was spot on now that you prompt a response from me. The bottom line in all this was that I thought your -3.5 was no good and that you could still find Isner winning without achieving your or our objectives as it were. It was a much bigger prophesy than a squirrel finding a nut. Ego tripping??