torn up slip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The following few posts are taken from Wizzkid Walters thread, I've moved them in here so we can actually continue the debate in a sensible manner. No more abuse and bitching, debate the topic by all means, I will add my thoughts shortly. At what point will you begin to start thiking this has not been the success you had hoped for? Surely after a couple of months of backing every short priced horse in the land with wildly variable staking tactics it's clear that this is not the correct path to tread when your lookin for keeping a sustained, clear, reliable profit line? To be polite this method you've chosen has been hit and miss. A profit of 1pt in 2 months for backing 8/11 shots and 5/6's etc can not be deemed a success can it when in truth people who are making selections based on each races merits are managing to turn profits way in excess of yours. To me, all your demonstrating is what anyone with more than a couple of brain cells already knew. Odds on backing is ok on occassions but it is by no way meant to be the long term route to successful punting you have tried to demonstrate it can be. But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread At what point will you begin to start thiking this has not been the success you had hoped for? Surely after a couple of months of backing every short priced horse in the land with wildly variable staking tactics it's clear that this is not the correct path to tread when your lookin for keeping a sustained, clear, reliable profit line? To be polite this method you've chosen has been hit and miss. A profit of 1pt in 2 months for backing 8/11 shots and 5/6's etc can not be deemed a success can it when in truth people who are making selections based on each races merits are managing to turn profits way in excess of yours. To me, all your demonstrating is what anyone with more than a couple of brain cells already knew. Odds on backing is ok on occassions but it is by no way meant to be the long term route to successful punting you have tried to demonstrate it can be. But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else. What a tosser!! Cant stand internet-hardmen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread What a tosser!! Cant stand internet-hardmen! Excuse me? At what point in that post have I called him a tosser? Or been in anyway defamatory or agressive towards him? I've been nothing but civil whilst also raising what I believe to be legitimate arguments for deeming his thread and his strategy unsuccessful. Unlike you, who has called me names on more than one occassion. So perhaps you might want to readdress your definition of an internet hardman. Id also be willing to say the exact same thing to him face to face, which also applies to you if you want to have a nice little chat at the next punters lounge get together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread At what point will you begin to start thiking this has not been the success you had hoped for? Surely after a couple of months of backing every short priced horse in the land with wildly variable staking tactics it's clear that this is not the correct path to tread when your lookin for keeping a sustained, clear, reliable profit line? To be polite this method you've chosen has been hit and miss. A profit of 1pt in 2 months for backing 8/11 shots and 5/6's etc can not be deemed a success can it when in truth people who are making selections based on each races merits are managing to turn profits way in excess of yours. To me, all your demonstrating is what anyone with more than a couple of brain cells already knew. Odds on backing is ok on occassions but it is by no way meant to be the long term route to successful punting you have tried to demonstrate it can be. But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else. couple of relevant points torn up, you are entitled to your opinion a profit is a profit, and it is a long term objective he (wizz) does not back every odds on available and unless you can contribute anything constructive, it would be unfair criticise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Excuse me? At what point in that post have I called him a tosser? Or been in anyway defamatory or agressive towards him? I've been nothing but civil whilst also raising what I believe to be legitimate arguments for deeming his thread and his strategy unsuccessful. Unlike you, who has called me names on more than one occassion. So perhaps you might want to readdress your definition of an internet hardman. Id also be willing to say the exact same thing to him face to face, which also applies to you if you want to have a nice little chat at the next punters lounge get together. As a matter of fact you insulted me about my best bet of the day's previously, i am sure you remember. You are now again trying to make little of Wizzkid's thread, of which he puts time into and he has his own style of betting which is none of your concern! And i dont think i would want to meet you, as you would be probably called "torn up face" afterwards!! You never have anything positive to contribute, and your petty little threat is laughable .. WIZZKID, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK! STICK AT IT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread At what point will you begin to start thiking this has not been the success you had hoped for? Surely after a couple of months of backing every short priced horse in the land with wildly variable staking tactics it's clear that this is not the correct path to tread when your lookin for keeping a sustained, clear, reliable profit line? To be polite this method you've chosen has been hit and miss. A profit of 1pt in 2 months for backing 8/11 shots and 5/6's etc can not be deemed a success can it when in truth people who are making selections based on each races merits are managing to turn profits way in excess of yours. To me, all your demonstrating is what anyone with more than a couple of brain cells already knew. Odds on backing is ok on occassions but it is by no way meant to be the long term route to successful punting you have tried to demonstrate it can be. But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else. Sad comments towards a fellow member who is at least trying to proof a system he has faith in . I'm sure if you had posted your thoughts BEFORE Wizzkid started his attempt or at least had the decency to try and make your criticisms constructive you would have a bit more respect , indeed the majority of it certainly can bring some debate into backing shorties but the last sentence shows a lack of respect for someone putting their neck on the line by at least putting his ideas in the public domain . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Shortly going to clip some comments from Wizzkids thread and post them in here so we can have an intelligent discussion/debate rather than it turning into a bitch fest and ruining his thread. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? At what point will you begin to start thiking this has not been the success you had hoped for? Surely after a couple of months of backing every short priced horse in the land with wildly variable staking tactics it's clear that this is not the correct path to tread when your lookin for keeping a sustained, clear, reliable profit line? To be polite this method you've chosen has been hit and miss. A profit of 1pt in 2 months for backing 8/11 shots and 5/6's etc can not be deemed a success can it when in truth people who are making selections based on each races merits are managing to turn profits way in excess of yours. To me, all your demonstrating is what anyone with more than a couple of brain cells already knew. Odds on backing is ok on occassions but it is by no way meant to be the long term route to successful punting you have tried to demonstrate it can be. But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else. I agree with your point, could have put it across slightly better though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I think Wizz's thread has highlighted how hard it is to turn a good profit from backing at short prices/odds on and for many, including me it is not the betting philosophy I would follow. The ideal scenario for me would be an 8 runner race with a favourite that looks opposable because if it is underpriced there is a good chance you will get value by opposing it. I would suggest that it is very rare for you to actually get any value on a short priced favourite, especially an odds on horse. The rare times that happens are when a 1-2 chance wins like a 1-10 chance. I know Wizz doesn't back just short prices/odds on chances but the thread is dedicated to that way of betting. I like seeing short prices and odds on chances turned over because I am usually against them but it feels like some are gloating in seeing them get turned over so they can have a go at Wizzkid, not really the community spirited approach that PL is based on. I have a different angle on this style of betting and on Wizz's thread which I'll explain. I am more interested in the short price favourites that Wizzkid sees and DOESN'T back, he must have good reasoning for opposing them. If there are say 5-6 odds on/short prices a day and he picks 2 why does he oppose the other 4? Finding false favourites and opposing them would be far more profitable than backing the shorties and if Wizz is leaving several shorties alone are they winning anyway or getting turned over? I believe most people that turn a good profit will do so with horses ranging from about 5-1 to 14-1 and occasionally landing some big priced winners or each way gambles. I know the profitable threads on here have been based on that kind of betting style (Russ, Fintron, Monterosso to name a few). Having an opinion on a favourite will be very similar to many mug punters that follow favourites blindly and have no idea of form but having a strong opinion on a horse that others might oppose will set you apart from the sheep. Wizz's thread has returned 45 winners yet a profit of only about 2 points and I feel bad for him reading those stats because he puts up reasoning with each post and clearly puts some time and effort into his thread. I don't believe his thread will give an honest view of his betting overall and maybe he will re evaluate that style of betting, it finds winners but it does not generate profit. I look forward to his input and please do not ruin his thread by criticising his betting methods there and getting personal. Feel free to debate it in here and I hope he will respond later. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? two seperate questions "can you have profit from backing odds on shots?" yes,why couldn't you same as any other bet "can you have profit from backing every single oddson shot just because they are odds on?" Well no.same as you couldnt make a profit backing every favourite:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else. The last comment was unneccessary, the crux of what you are saying is spot on. :ok Losing on short prices can quickly lead you to overstaking and trying to claw back your losses. If he is losing real money on these horses it isn't really something to laugh at is it? I don't mean that as anything personal towards you, what I am saying is seeing a fellow punter losing money is not good. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? two seperate questions "can you have profit from backing long shots?" yes,why couldn't you same as any other bet "can you have profit from backing every single oddson shot just because they are odds on?" Well no.same as you couldnt make a profit backing every favourite:nana Depends why you are backing the long shots. If you are backing them purely because they are long shots then it's flawed. If you are backing them because you feel their chance of winning is better than the odds suggest then you are on the right track. I see betting as an exploitation of errors from the odds compilers and with favourites/shorties they are taking no chances. Quick example would be Seville at 10-1 for the St Leger, I wouldn't take it at double those odds, lofty rating earned by not being quite good enough. It was even shorter before York. As punters we all have access to the same information, you could give 10 punters a Racing Post and access to previous video form and the interesting thing is how the stats are interpreted by each individual. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I agree fully with the point he is making, but the manner in which he made it is unacceptable! Its embarassing enough having a big punt on a 2/9 shot that loses as well as somebody coming on here laughing at your misery!! Yes, i think Wizzkid's way of betting is not correct, but i dont know a profitable way of betting yet myself, as do most people! All torn up slip is looking for is an argument, its seldom you see him post on the forum unless he is having a go at somebody Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Let me set the record straight about backing at odds-on by making a series of factual statements. To start with, backing any odds range can work. There are punters that back the rankest outsiders and the hottest favourites. The issue is that the punter has to be aware of the pros and cons of what he is doing. Firstly you have to look at the expected yield for backing at each odds range. I can't expand it much here but the conclusion is that the higher the odds range, the higher your yield. The highest odds horses are most likely to be the most mispriced. A horse that starts out at odds 50/1 first price (expected chance to win 2%) and moves two odds increments to 33/1 (expected win chance 3%) has increased his odds of winning by 50%. A horse that starts out at 2.0 (50%) and steams in to 1.9 (52.63%) has increased his chance of winning by ~5% even though it looks like a massive movement in the odds. That is a tiny yield that leaves very little margin for error. You simply cannot argue with the mathematics. The trade off of the very good strike rate is a very poor yield. In my own results, I think getting a long term edge of 5% with odds-on bets is extremely generous and it is most likely lower IF you are an extremely good tipster. Backing odds-on seems like a good idea for the novice punter but it is paradoxically harder than backing at higher odds ranges, where horses are mispriced more often and they have a higher ROI. In the case of odds-on vs higher odds the higher odds backer will always win. Just check out the best tipsters in the BBOTD comp if you don't believe me. The ideal combination of strike rate and yield is about 15 - 20% winners. If your strike rate is too high your yield becomes too small. If your strike rate is too low then you get very long losing runs. Some people won't like what I've written, or will think that I am full of it, or try to poke holes in it. You are totally free to back at very low odds if you wish but let me warn you, it is extremely difficult unless you have a very large bank and are super-selective. Your time could be far more productive looking at higher odds horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Depends why you are backing the long shots. If you are backing them purely because they are long shots then it's flawed. If you are backing them because you feel their chance of winning is better than the odds suggest then you are on the right track. I see betting as an exploitation of errors from the odds compilers and with favourites/shorties they are taking no chances. Quick example would be Seville at 10-1 for the St Leger, I wouldn't take it at double those odds, lofty rating earned by not being quite good enough. It was even shorter before York. As punters we all have access to the same information, you could give 10 punters a Racing Post and access to previous video form and the interesting thing is how the stats are interpreted by each individual. :ok sorry mate meant odds on shots.:spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I like Wizzkid's thread , on occassions it mirrors my own personal bets , so i take particular interest. I did ask a couple of questions once querying his methods and i think his feelings were hurt and responded in a rant which was not my intention to upset him. I do believe you can profit from short priced favorites if you are selective. Around 50% of my bets are on favorites and whilst i admit i do not make a massive long term profit i am very happy if my betting bank lasts a long time without topping it up.If I'm being honest my bets on longer priced horses / ante post bets are paid for by betting on favorites , so my leakage is when going for bigger priced punts. There are a few areas of his method which i disagree with which include betting on once/twiced raced maidens which previously came 2nd /3rd especially when there are unraced types from Newmarket yards.I know a lot of his selections are these particular races but personally i find these types of races are one of the worst types of betting races especially from september onwards.I do find he is sounding niave when he says " ....should be odds on ...." or " ...should break his maiden tag ...." Saying that i do hope he perseveres and makes a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Valid points made torn up slip but the manner i which you make them is akin to goading. Mowgli77 the thread is running at a loss, not a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I also think it is important to have a firm staking plan in place. This will help prevent you going on tilt and blowing a lot of your betting bank if you have the willpower. Wizzkids staking got progressively bigger and bigger , 1 point or 1.5 points were the norm at the beggining through to bigger stakes more recently. I'm no betting genius but from experience betting 10% of your bank on one selction is a path to ruin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Valid points made torn up slip but the manner i which you make them is akin to goading. Mowgli77 the thread is running at a loss, not a profit. I was going on this: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 85 Total number of winners: 45 Strike Rate: 52.94% Total number of points staked: 230.50 Total points returned: 232.04 Net position: +1.54 pts % yield: +0.67% Current bank: 101.54 points :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I updated the outstatnding results, which shows a current loss of around 12 points, but I see your point. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? What a tosser!! Cant stand internet-hardmen! And i dont think i would want to meet you, as you would be probably called "torn up face" afterwards!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? :lol Love it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I started a similar thread a while back regarding wether or not a long odds on shot could ever be deemed BBOTD. I am still of the opinion that odds on shots are a waste of time and especially money and have never backed an odds on shot except in an accumultator to bulk up the total and only then no worse than 4/5 or at worst 4/6. However, everyone is entitled to bet how they like and at least Whizzkid has put time and energy into actually keeping a thread, whilst some others prefer to spend their time on here mocking others efforts...I find that shameful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAGS is BENT Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread What a tosser!! Cant stand internet-hardmen! And i dont think i would want to meet you' date=' as you would be probably called "torn up face" afterwards!![/quote'] AIDYMAC......most members on here,me included, will find your comments towards another member rather childish and and somewhat vulgar:$ TORN UP SLIP does have a point,albeit his point could have been made more eloqouently.Just look at WW last few selections,you only need a few consecutive long odds on losers and you are in the POOR HOUSE...FACT!! then the pressure is really on...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I say fair play to Wizzkid Walter for not getting involved in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread AIDYMAC......most members on here,me included, will find your comments towards another member rather childish and and somewhat vulgar:$ TORN UP SLIP does have a point,albeit his point could have been made more eloqouently.Just look at WW last few selections,you only need a few consecutive long odds on losers and you are in the POOR HOUSE...FACT!! then the pressure is really on...... You obviously did not see the abuse he hurled at me a good while back when i had a lot of losers in a row!! I have no time for him or his smart sarcastic crap and i am bemused as how you find the word "tosser"vulgar but everybody is different!! You obviously dont understand the fact he only ever writes on somebody's thread unless its to take the piss out of them, and dont forget it is he who threatened me if you read the posts correctly... Im done bickering, back to racing! Tis amazing the amount of people that show up when there is an argument on-going, they never seem to contribute anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Tis amazing the amount of people that show up when there is an argument on-going, they never seem to contribute anything else Very true that Aidy:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAGS is BENT Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I have no time for him Then i would suggest steering clear of him and refrain from commenting on any of his posts and likewise in return from TORN UP SLIP would be the common sense approach. The implication that i'm just turning up to add fuel to this argument is 100% bollocks......i did comment on a simalar thread to this before,unlike this thread the tone on that thread was more sensible,where i merely highlighted the pros & cons in a impartial manner without having a dig at anyone:ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Very true that Aidy:ok I hint a bit of sarcasm BH... :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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