Rugby World Cup 2011

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Agree with the Ashton bet. I think he is 20s with Ladbrokes for the top tournament try scorer so if still the same i would (if i didn't work for them) be all over that price too (but i can't). 2.75 is too short for me though as, if rested against the minnows, he could be overtook by another. Personally, i would rather go for the outright win and place money instead.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Aidy, you certainly got a good price there on England at 22/1 - now a best price of 18/1 again. That is a massive price still and i don't understand why there hasn't been more emoney on them as we come into this with a real live chance of success. If England were 18/1 to win the World Cup in the footy it wouldn't last 2 seconds with the English public all lumping on and, realistically, we have a better chance here to lift the trophy.

[Breakballartist]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

I just put 50 quid on it @ 22/1 with the view to lay it off @ 5/1 or 6/1 once they reach the quarters or semi-s..... Seems the best way to play it.. If they get to 6/1 i will lay them for 120 quid, then guaranteed 70 profit... If they get to the semi-s they will be 6/1 at the very most and i can see them getting there... If not, its 50 quid lost, not the end of the world eh!

This seems like print money to me; followed you on it #caaash England arriving in decent nick, in a shallow field of realistic contenders.

[SteveO]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Well I'd say France are a better back to lay than England and they're both set to meet in the quarters. France don't have great form going into the World Cup but they walked the Grand Slam last year and still retain the bulk of that squad. I feel they have a far more talented squad than england and are better value, currently available at 21.0 on Betfair. Can't wait for this to start now and the question is will the real New Zealand turn up for this one and finally nail it. I think they will (although I always do) and will walk this one, with Cory Jane being top try scorer too, although top try scorer is always a tough one to call as many players are rotated during the group stage.

[Breakballartist]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Well I'd say France are a better back to lay than England and they're both set to meet in the quarters. France don't have great form going into the World Cup but they walked the Grand Slam last year and still retain the bulk of that squad. I feel they have a far more talented squad than england and are better value, currently available at 21.0 on Betfair. Can't wait for this to start now and the question is will the real New Zealand turn up for this one and finally nail it. I think they will (although I always do) and will walk this one, with Cory Jane being top try scorer too, although top try scorer is always a tough one to call as many players are rotated during the group stage.

Tis abit of a coin flip maybe alright; just have a feeling that England will travel better than France...

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 I would argue we are in better form and out recent tournament record is better so we edge it imo

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Got a lot of work on this week so going to post my early match bets for the opening games now. I don't think the team news will play a major part in any of the games so i am comfortable taking these today..... Saturday: Scotland vs Romania 2.5/5pts Scotland (-34 points) to beat Romania - 10/11 with Bet365 This may seem a bit risky with it being the opening match for both sides but i think that also adds to the appeal of taking the line. Scotland, for me, will be involved in a straight fight with the Argentinian's for the runner-up spot in Pool B and i have taken them to edge that battle. This is a good game for them to start with because it gives them a chance to play themselves in before taking on the bigger sides and it also alows them to put some early pressure on the South Americans as far as the table goes. A big win with a bonus point for scoring 4 or more tries will be the perfect way to start off knowing that Argentina have to take on England first-up. The Scot's will have to go for a big score to get that extra point and, to be honest, they should be getting it against a Romanian side way below them in terms of talent. Romania qualified well in the end but they struggled against some of the lower nations to begin with so that isn't very encouraging. I have also read that they have done very little work with the scrum and that baffles me as it will give the Scot's more confidence. They played each other in 2007 and the Scot's came out 42-0 winners and i think they are in better shape coming into this game than they were back then. Scotland will get opportunities to score tries and come here in good confidence after warm-up wins over Italy and Ireland. As far as team selection goes i think even if Robinson does leave out a couple of big names there is enough quality back-up there to come in. I'm not convinced he will do that, though. With players to exploit the gaps that will appear in Romania's defence i am happy to take the Scot's to record the big score they need on Saturday. Saturday: France vs Japan 2/5pts Japan (+50 points) to beat France - 10/11 with Betfred Opposing the French may become a regular thing for me in this tournament, espescially when big handicaps like this are involved. As i said in my ante-post write-up i don't trust them to get jobs done as a squad of their talent should. Their coach chops and changes before every match and throughout every match and that is the main reason i am happy to take the Japanese here. France should qualify from their group easily but i think Lievremont will make a lot of changes in the 2nd half of this game so i can't see them being as fluent as they could be towards the end. Therefore, there should be an opportunity for Japan to keep the score respectable. These sides played each other back in the 2003 tournament where the score was 51-29 and although that won't have much bearing on this game it does show that Japanese sides can score tries. They won the Pacific Nations Cup this year against sides from Fiji, Tonga and Samoa so come into this with plenty of belief that they can cause teams problems. Lievremont's rotation policy, if you can even call it that, could mean that the game becomes a bit stale in the 2nd half of this match so i believe that Japan will keep it within the 50 points margin and also cause some problems themselves. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- So, just a couple for the first lot of 8 games. Can't make my mind up on the Pool C games, have already took England to win the group and tough to call how far they will win first match, New Zealand could win by anything from 50-100 whilst the South Africa/Wales line's looks well priced. Can't wait for it to start now! EDIT: PRESENTATION/TIDYING UP

[Spankyf]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 I'm also tipping Japan to be within the handicap. Took them a while ago at +52 @ 10/11 on Beftred for 2 units. They will give the French a harder time than they may expect and as Mirage said, they score tries. Kirwan will have the samurai spirit out for that game for sure. We might even see some kind of a sumo-haka. I'm going to take England to beat the handicap against Argentina. Johnson's got a decent squad here with the belief the English will always have about them. After watching them in a couple of games over August they look like a decent unit who'll have to hope the 10's will be able to elevate their performances later in the competition, but that won't be a issue in their first game. The battle here will be between the packs and England are a lot more conditioned to game time than their opponents. The Pumas had one real match against the Welsh and lost poorly. They held things tight up until the half hour mark and there was no decent incision from them throughout the entire match. They surprised everyone last world cup but that was a better squad and while spirit may keep them in it for the first half, I think England will have too many practiced moves for them to handle, them being a bit ill prepared in terms of recent tests. Johnno will put out a very strong side as it'll be this and the Calcutta cup match that will determine if they manage to win the pool and avoid the Kiwis. I think England will just about cover the -11 @ 10/11 Betfred are offering. I'm sticking 1 unit on that. Later in the week i'll make a decision on the Ireland USA game. We just don't put teams to the sword by cricket scores anymore and i'm waiting to see the team line ups as I might take a US handicap. :hope

[CFCWatson]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Two bets for me. World Cup 2011 – Australia @ 4.20 Sportsbet I think NZ are the most likely of all sides to win the World Cup, and they are correctly listed and heavily backed as favourites. However, recent signs from the Wallabies point to improvement from the young side. The Reds won won the Super comp in fantastic fashion and with some very exciting football, which I beleive has had an enormous effect on the Wallabies. The Reds players have gone into camp and and I think they're winning mentality and confidence has rubbed off on the entire squad. The Wallabies have shown that they are capable of beating the Kiwi's, as they did so in the Tri-Nations, and I understand that it will be a much harder prospect if the 2 sides face off again in the World Cup Final, BUT they are still capable of doing so if their combinations continue to click and our big players stand up. It's hard to go past NZ on their home turf, and I do expect them to win it, but I find it very hard to ignore the Wallabies who are starting to really improve. If any side can knock off the All Blacks, I feel it's the Wallabies who have the best chance. Top Tournamet Points Scorer – Q Cooper @ 10.00 Sportsbet Rough punt this one. I expect him to take over goal kicking duties until James O'Connor has proven himself to the coach again. Coupled with the fact that Cooper is generally heavily inolved in our attacking plays. Again, it's a rough punt, but these are good odds IMO and the Wallabies really do need this man to stand up and be counted. Good enough reason for me :ok

[waynecoyne]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Referees have recently been told by their international boss to be tougher and assert more control. This could result in refs trying to impress and maybe over-reacting and also confusion for players. The last world cup had 2 red cards and you can buy @ 2.6 with sporting index total tournament red cards. This line started @2.5 and appears to be edging upwards. spreadex are quoting 2.7 to buy having gone 2.6 this afternoon, (sporting were 2.5 this afternoon). With a limited downside i am chancing this hopefully low risk option.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Referees have recently been told by their international boss to be tougher and assert more control. This could result in refs trying to impress and maybe over-reacting and also confusion for players. The last world cup had 2 red cards and you can buy @ 2.6 with sporting index total tournament red cards. This line started @2.5 and appears to be edging upwards. spreadex are quoting 2.7 to buy having gone 2.6 this afternoon, (sporting were 2.5 this afternoon). With a limited downside i am chancing this hopefully low risk option.

I like your logic and have followed, having read this article among others: http://www.espnscrum.com/2011-rugby-world-cup/rugby/story/148455.html 20/1 or more about one in the opening game might not be a terrible bet but I've taken Hill's 8/13 about a sin-binning in that game. Much shorter elsewhere and there were 6 in Tonga's 4 games at the last World Cup.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

The English media/bookies//fans etc never learn, do they? I must say, I like it, it means those of us who don't get caught up in and fooled by the hype can make good money by betting against England and English teams.

You must have made a fortune laying them in the Six Nations then! :loon

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

You must have made a fortune laying them in the Six Nations then! :loon

And the last 2 World Cups

[Bird]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 I like Tonga to cover the start tonight but my bet is Tonga over 7.5 points in match $1.95 TAB(NZ

[xxdaxxbombxx]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 :nanaTime to get excited... Tonights match NZL v TON I believe tonga will start pretty strong, and will keep the AB's quiet for the first 30 minutes or so. The AB backline has been shuffled around and it will take some time till the new combinations settle in. I believe the game will open up and both teams will play more expansive once the AB's are 25 or so up. Bet of the Night : Highest scoring half - Second half @ 1.66 At Will hill. Other Bet of the weekend WAL v RSA This is a wales team with 5 wins out of the last 7 games vs a boks team that didnt score a single try in there last 2 matches. Southafrica will play tight rugby this world cup and will only score in multiples of 3's against decent sides, I expect this game to stay tight SA has only beaten Wales by 13+ at home in recent times. I think there is great value on the Wales +13.5 handicap

Sat, 13 Nov 2010	AI		South Africa v Wales	29-25	2:3	8-1	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A
Sat, 05 Jun 2010	ST		South Africa v Wales	34-31	3:3	8-1	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A
Sat, 08 Nov 2008	AI		South Africa v Wales	20-15	2:0	8-1	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A
Sat, 14 Jun 2008	ST	2	South Africa v Wales	37-21	4:2	6-0	Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria	H
Sat, 07 Jun 2008	ST	1	South Africa v Wales	43-17	4:2	6-0	Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein	H
Sat, 24 Nov 2007	AI		South Africa v Wales	34-12	5:2	8-0	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A
Sat, 19 Nov 2005	AI		South Africa v Wales	33-16	4:1	8-0	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A
Sat, 06 Nov 2004	AI		South Africa v Wales	38-36	4:3	8-1	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A
Sat, 26 Jun 2004	ST		South Africa v Wales	53-18	7:2	6-0	Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria	H
Sat, 15 Jun 2002	ST		South Africa v Wales	19-8	2:1	6-0	Newlands, Cape Town	H
Sat, 08 Jun 2002	ST		South Africa v Wales	34-19	5:2	6-0	Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein	H
Sun, 26 Nov 2000	AI		South Africa v Wales	23-13	2:1	8-0	Millennium Stadium, Cardiff	A

[Elchubb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Agree with the Ashton bet. I think he is 20s with Ladbrokes for the top tournament try scorer so if still the same i would (if i didn't work for them) be all over that price too (but i can't). 2.75 is too short for me though as, if rested against the minnows, he could be overtook by another. Personally, i would rather go for the outright win and place money instead.

Still been thinking about this bet and i'm still not sure so decided to leave it alone and just go for top tournament try scorer as after seeing England's line up i think Armitage could play all the group games bring him in to contention and i can't work out how many of the games against the minnows Ashton will play!

[gettingfatter]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 I think the England price is about right. They have pedigree in the World Cup but they haven't looked at their best the last few months and look as though they will struggle to create again if the 2nd match against Wales is anything to go by. I have been looking at this from a Welsh perspective and I cannot for the life of me work out why Ireland are so much shorter than Wales. Wales need to beat SA to get anywhere in this tourney because I can't see anyone other than Australia winning the other group. Should be an interesting weekend anyway. I agree with the above though, I don't think we should be +13.5 vs SA on sunday, we have shown a resiliance recently that makes me think we will not get blown out the water by anyone, whether we can create enough chances to compete with the better teams Idk though.

[CFCWatson]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Late bet for me. New Zealand v Tonga (+58.5) @ 1.90 Sportsbet I fully expect the All Blacks to win this game, and comfortably at that. But I like the look of this bet and the odds are worth a small punt. A tad risky, but hey lets get the World Cup underway with a little cheeky bet. Just watched the line-ups get announced and it seems the All Blacks have made a few changes? perhaps this will affect their play? only time will tell I guess. :ok

[Elchubb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Looking at who's gonna win the world cup, New Zealand deserve to be such strong favourites and i really can see them winning it, they've been the best team in the world for some time now and i think the recent earthquakes in christ church will help bring a nation together and we all know that can be a powerful thing in events like this but at 1.67 i won't be backing them in singles as a 7 week wait at that price isn't appealing on a risk/reward basis for me(have put them in a lot of multiples though! So the only outright for the tournament for the reasons already mentioned by others is e/w on England. Missed the price a bit but still happy to take 16-1 on them! 2.5pts e/w England (Will Hill) 16-1

[CFCWatson]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Late bet for me. New Zealand v Tonga (+58.5) @ 1.90 Sportsbet :cheers I fully expect the All Blacks to win this game, and comfortably at that. But I like the look of this bet and the odds are worth a small punt. A tad risky, but hey lets get the World Cup underway with a little cheeky bet. Just watched the line-ups get announced and it seems the All Blacks have made a few changes? perhaps this will affect their play? only time will tell I guess. :ok

Nice little win to start the World Cup campaign. At one point in the first half it looked like the All Blacks were going to absolutely thump them! man they played some good stuff. But the Tongans dug in in the second half and made a better contest of things. Line betting might be the way to go? I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for the big lines now. :)

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Nice start there Watson! :ok The All Blacks looked a bit edgy to me at times and the amount of errors they made has to be a worry if they don't cut them down before moving in to the knockout stages. I certainly don't buy into this 'first game, lets just get the win and the performance doesn't matter' theory as the way teams start does have a big say in how they do throughout the tournament. They will no doubt be dangerous to any side if they play like they did at times in that firts half but teams like France, South Africa, Australia and England will look at that overall performance and feel more confident. Also, with the expectations surrounding them at home once more they will no doubt come under fire from some of the media who would have been expecting a 60 point win to make their mark. Credit to Tonga, they dug in and frustrated their opposition and that passage of play leading up to their try will have hurt a lot of those All Blacks forwards.

[2stroksmokr]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Quite suprised with the odds against Argentina for tomorrow nights game paying $4.90 to Englands $1.18 currently on sportsbet. Not to happy with Englands overall form lately and shouldn't honestly be too much in the game.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 The other teams will take lots of hope from watching the All-Blacks poor performance. Yes some of the try's were very impressive but the Tonga defense was non-existant in the first half... The New Zealand scrum was horrendous and the only time Tonga threatened in the whole game they got a try out of it, and well deserved too..... 4/7 New Zealand at the start? Poor value.... In my opinion New Zealand are quite beatable watching them today!

[Spankyf]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Well done to all who took the Tonga + handicap. I agree that it will give encouragement to every other tier one nation. I'm taking another bet for the opening round, USA on a + handicap. I'm Irish and as I mentioned, we haven't put any side away convincingly in a long time. The last time we beat anyone was one of the Pacific islands (Fiji?) by about 30 a couple of years back. The selected squad is a strong one with about 70% first choice players. The Irish have to answer the critic in themselves and need a victory first and foremost here and if it gets ugly they'll look to win the match and won't be playing Leinster/champagne rugby. The USA would be slightly below Canada, Samoa and the likes but this is a WC opener against the Irish (Eagles being coached by the last coach of Ireland who'll be very familiar with the Irish players) on September the 11th. There'll be plenty of fight in the underdog here and any Irish lads out there know we don't play the favourite well. I do think we'll win by a few tries but if the AB's can only win by 31 against Tonga, I have confidence the yanks will compete here in their opener on the biggest stage for any rugby player. USA + 34 @ 10/11 (various) Ngwenya anytime tryscorer @ 9/2 (Bet365) :hope

[CFCWatson]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 France v Japan (+41.0) @ 1.91 Sportsbet Write up a bit later, at work all day unfortunately :@

[MemoryOf82]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Just noticed a bet on StanJames, I know it's late but I only noticed it now but Argentina team points 13.5+ @5/6, this could be a low scoring game but with Contepomi on their side and with his kicking ability and with England likely to give a few penalties away, I can see this being covered, so gone for 2.5U's @ 8/10 Strength...

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Guys can we use the livescore thread for in play chat ;). Ta :ok

[CFCWatson]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

France v Japan (+41.0) @ 1.91 Sportsbet :cheers Write up a bit later, at work all day unfortunately :@

Another cheeky little win, I'm glad I took a quick look at the line before kick off. I had a feeling it was a tad generous and decided to have a crack. :ok Plenty of generous lines about, and I'd say the opening fixture for each team would be the best time to take them, just before the big sides start to hit their straps and find a rythym.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Australia -27.5pts @10/11 bet365 vs Italy. None of the top sides have handed out a hammering yet, however i can see a confident, young Australia side really try and make a statement by playing an expansive/attacking game against a robust Italian side. If Australia get quick ball, can see them scoring plenty.:ok

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Hills -27 at evens mate