Rugby World Cup 2011

[Spankyf]

Hi folks. The Rugby World Cup begins in 24 days so in anticipation of the big one for rugby fans I’ve started this thread. I am still relatively new on this site but hope to get a good discussion going on the upcoming tournament. Looking back on the thread for the 2007 edition, the standard was exceptionally high for tips and posts so hoping this one will continue the trend. So once again, the perennial top dogs – the All Blacks – are heavy favourites to win the World Cup, this time on home soil. Have suffered at the hands of France last time out, there’ll be no squad more motivated to win the cup for themselves as THE rugby nation and for the people of New Zealand. And who would doubt they will mean business this time with the squad they’ve got. Of the other 19 teams, only two or three are genuine contenders and there a couple more dark horses. 2007 champions South Africa are still a strong squad, but with De Villiers at the helm you get the feeling their not totally sure of themselves. Australia are deservedly 2^nd place in the world as the only team to have beaten the Kiwi’s for a long time. They lost to England and Munster last season but it seems as though their forwards have gotten better as a unit over the last while, though a recent loss to the AB’s shows they’re just not there yet, despite an amazing season from the core of their squad in the Queensland super rugby win. With a whitewash of South Africa in this years Tri Nations, it’s clear they’re the closest team playing catch up. Of the European nations, England usually give a strong showing at these tournaments and I think they may go as far as the semi finals. France are still being led around by Marc Lievremont and as usual, their mentatlity is a source for concern. Big losses to Australia and then italy earlier this year showed the cracks that lie behind what should be a very good team on paper though they looked a little better against Ireland last weekend. Ireland themselves are due a performance at a World Cup, having never reached a semi final. You’d have to think that this is the last chance for some of the golden generation to perform on the world stage. Argentina have lost the mercurial Martin Hernandez but will hope the passion showed four years ago will come back to them, despite a weaker squad and a dearth of warm up games. As for the others, I will digress further with some brief thoughts on the pools. Pool A New Zealand, France, Japan, Canada, Tonga 09/09 - 04:30 New Zealand v Tonga 10/09 - 02:00 France - Japan 14/09 - 01:00 Tonga - Canada 16/09 - 04:00 New Zealand - Japan 18/09 - 04:30 France - Canada 21/09 - 03:30 Tonga - Japan 24/09 - 04:30 New Zealand - France 27/09 - 00:00 Canada - Japan 01/10 - 01:00 France - Tonga Of all the groups, this seems the most straightforward: New Zealand to top the pool and France in second. The Canadians are a decent, strong outfit. I saw them a couple of weeks ago in the flesh against the US and they came away with a lucky win. They beat the same team away last week and were a lot better, winning without much possession and being in their own 22 for a lot of the game. I reckon they might give France a scare, because that will be there only chance of getting out of this pool, as long as they dispose of Japan and Tonga. Japan have been motoring along nicely this year and weren’t far off beating the Italians recently. Coupled with success in Asian tournaments and Kirwan coaching the side on his home soil, Japan will hope to do their country proud after their devastating earthquakes, and they will be aiming for a 3^rd place finish, in direct competition with Canada. Tonga will too, but while there is every chance they can beat Japan and/or Canada, I don’t think their preparation will have been against as competitive competition as they’ll face in September. As for the big two, I won’t say much about New Zealand other than they are the team to beat, and the only team that will beat them is themselves. The same might apply to France, but to be honest I think they will be able to do enough to beat the other three teams in this group, though they had better not take the same laissez faire approach they took into a certain Autumn test against the Wallabies last year and Italy this year. The AB’s will target the game between the two as a huge mental victory. Pool B Argentina, England, Georgia, Romania, Scotland 09/09 - 21:00 Scotland - Romania 10/09 - 04:30Argentina - England 14/09 - 03:30 Scotland - Georgia 16/09 - 23:30 Argentina - Romania 18/09 - 02:00 England - Georgia 24/09 - 02:00 England - Romania 25/09 - 03:30 Argentina - Scotland 28/09 - 02:30 Georgia - Romania 01/10 - 03:30 England - Scotland 01/10 - 20:00 Argentina – Georgia While I think England will win this group, I wouldn’t bet they’ll win all their games. Realistically, Scotland and Argentina are in with a strong chance of coming second, and Georgia may score an upset. They’re an unknown quantity to me but they have claimed scalps in the past, and done really well in the last World Cup, probably unfortunate to lose to Ireland. Romania are one of the distinguished members of the Union playing nations that have competed at every World Cup. They - like a lot of the other rugby playing nations making up the numbers here - suffer in that they don’t have much matches ahead of the WC. They play Ukraine August 20, but it’ll just be a feel good exercise having beat them convincingly the last two years. So I really don’t know how good they both will be, though I’m looking forward to their derby (relatively speaking) with Georgia on the 28^th. As for the bigger three, Scotland have every chance of coming second in the pool if they manage to score more than the Pumas. The Pumas might have had the forward edge four years ago, but I haven’t seen enough of them lately to assume they’ll be better in the pack than the Scots. I wouldn’t rule out either of them upsetting England, but you’d think they’d both have the courage to give their old enemy a big test at the WC. Outrights on this group for quarter final berths for Argentina are quite evenly priced at just under or around evens for the QF yes/no market so if you’re brave enough, give it a lash, but I couldn’t say who will do it. I would have England as shorter than 1/3 they are currently at to win the pool, but hey it’s a world cup so lets hope there are some upsets. There could be a good competition for QF spots in this group if England slip up in their opener against the Argentina. Remember the passion the Puma’s showed before their wonderful victory in the 2007 opener against the French? If we see more of the same the wheels might come off the chariot, but only for a game. I expect the English to take the group with Argentina just about edging the Scots out. As of the time of writing, Wales host Argentina on the 20^th of August, so we will learn a lot more about the side then. Pool C Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia, USA 10/09 - 23:30 Australia - Italy 11/09 - 02:00 Ireland - USA 15/09 - 03:30 Russia - USA 17/09 - 04:30 Australia - Ireland 20/09 - 03:30 Italy - Russia 23/09 - 04:30 Australia - USA 25/09 - 01:00 Ireland - Russia 27/09 - 02:30 Italy - USA 30/09 - 22:30 Australia - Russia 02/10 - 03:30 Ireland – Italy As for Pool C, I’m guessing Australia will win the group and from a personal perspective, I’m praying Ireland join them in the QF’s. Italy are the team to watch here. Australia will have an uncomfortable time with them in their first game. All these teams are composed of professionals and Australia will have to rely on smarter quick play rather than waiting for the Italians to mentally wilt, as maybe they would have done in the past. Italy showed strong resilience this year and captain Parisse will lead his team without fear of anyone in this pool. The final match of the group will probably decide the race for second, but Ireland really have to get to the quarters this time. At the end of last March, things were looking slightly optimistic after dismantling England, despite a lacklustre 6N. The Irish have since lost to Scotland and France away, and need to come away with some winning vibes to go into the tournament, and with England and France to play, they need to step up a gear if they have any ambition. Australia are of course a top side and I expect them to go far in this tournament. As for debutants Russia and regular finalists USA, they will battle it out for the wooden spoon. I can’t see the US beating Italy, though keep an eye out for the excellent Ngwenya and captain Todd Clever. They will show a lot of passion in the first game against the Irish with former coach Eddie O’Sullivan hoping to give them a scare, but he probably doesn’t want them to lose either, in what could be a potentially very tight group. I think Australia will manage at least three wins – four if Ireland don’t show up, and Ireland to follow them into the QF’s – just. Pool D Fiji, Namibia, Samoa, South Africa, Wales 09/09 - 23:30 Fiji - Namibia 11/09 - 04:30 South Africa - Wales 13/09 - 22:30 Samoa - Namibia 17/09 - 02:00 South Africa - Fiji 17/09 - 23:30 Wales - Samoa 22/09 - 04:00 South Africa - Namibia 24/09 - 22:30 Fiji - Samoa 26/09 - 02:30 Wales - Namibia 30/09 - 03:30 South Africa - Samoa 02/10 - 01:00 Wales – Fiji This is by far the toughest group to call in my estimation, so for shits and giggles lets call it the Pool of Death. South Africa are having a poor Tri Nations and don’t look to be in great form at the moment, but they will advance. With all due respect to the boys from Cymru, I wouldn’t hang my coat on Wales. An average six nations, lost at least two frontliners already through the warm up games with captain Rees in serious doubt too, and I just can’t see coherent team play coming in the style of their wizards of forefathers. Without a lot of luck and performances from the likes of S. Jones, R. Jones, Hook and their midfield, the team won’t have the others shaking in their boots. All that being said, they won an ugly game against England recently and Ireland earlier in the year and can grind out results, but they performed poorly against Southern opposition this year (and that includes the performance against Fiji) and I wouldn’t bet on them making the QF’s. Throwing a spanner into the works are recent conquerors of the Wallabies Samoa and the always entertaining Fijians. I can see there being an upset coming in this group from one of these sides. If anyone remembers the QF’s from last time round Fiji gave the performance of the tournament (except maybe for the Argentina triumphs) by nearly beating South Africa, scoring two tries with a man in the bin. Of course that’s all academic now but both these countries are brimming with intent and natural rugby talent. I can see one of them taking a scalp of Wales (not inconceivably SA too) and maybe pipping Wales to the post. Both Leicester fans and now Australian’s will know to look out for Alesana Tuilagi to pop up with a few performances this tournament. It may all go down to points in this pool and I reckon four time finalists Namibia will probably be the whipping boys here. I don’t know much about the outfit but they haven’t played any tier 1 or 2 nations this year, as far as I’m aware. The most interesting thing about the group is the way the fixtures lie: both Samoa and Fiji play Namibia first and will build up confidence with expected victories. Wales play the Springboks first and if they should lose, they know they will be under pressure to beat the other remaining teams which has been a problem for them recently. These are all just my own musings but the quarters may look like this: Australia v Samoa England v France South Africa v Ireland New Zealand v Argentina And for the semi’s I’ll say: Australia v England Ireland v New Zealand NZ Aus final with the Kiwis’ to do it. Massive massive pressure on the best team to do the job and from a good while back there has been no value in outright’s for the AB’s. Some value in betting without favourite and I’ve taken a few each way’s with the Aussie’s, England and France. Anyways, hope this gets some punters talking about the tournament and I’d love to hear others thoughts on it! :D

[barcabandit]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Anyone scoured the market for the best price on New Zealand? They were at 5/6 before the Tri-Nations and now it seems like the best price is 1.65 which is quite low considering the tournament has yet to start.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Great start to the thread LfS. I've stickied it so looking forward to a good 7 weeks both of rugby and rugby betting from the regulars :ok. :welcome to PL barcabandit :ok.

[Bird]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Australia to make and win the Final.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Interesting comment Bird. Any thoughts or reasons behind why you think that?

[Bird]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Interesting comment Bird. Any thoughts or reasons behind why you think that?

A couple really, Australia are the closest in terms of talent and all round play to the All Blacks, the last game between these two sides was at Eden Park where the final is to be played and if not for bad Goal kicking in the first half and bad options in attack the result could of been far different, and that's not even counting the 2 tries the AB's scored from a knock on and forward pass. Also the pressure on the AB's to win is huge and will continue to mount as the tournament passes by, I don't think people realise how big the pressure is on them to be honest. 1987 was the only time they have won the WC, granted no mater the results the AB's are the best side in the world on any given day and their results show that, but the invention of the World Cup and their failure to win it since 87 has resulted in a mindset of nothing but the WC is enough and as each tournament has come and gone the expectation has grown more and more, to the point of extremes. It is a proven fact that domestic abuse rises when the AB's lose in a WC, imagine being a player with that hanging over your head every WC. Then there's the coach, Robbie Deans was the coach NZ wanted to lead them into this WC and instead he is at the helm of their fiercest rivals. He is a great coach and also knows how the key players in the AB's work, if anyone can upset the AB apple cart it's him and this young but ever improving Wallabies outfit. Really I just think the Wallabies are the AB's only real threat here and man for man they can match it with the All Blacks for sure, those who say the AB's are on Eden Park a place they do not lose often only need look at Rugby League where the Kangaroos near on unbeatable on home soil lost the 4 Nations and WC Finals in Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium to the Kiwis who were considered no chance but yet came away with the spoils. The fact is on any given day any side can beat any side and if there is one side the AB's will not want to face come Final time it is this Wallabies side for sure. On a different note of sorts, the refs really need to be held accountable for bad decisions. right now there are so many games decided by the refs whistle rather than great play, the scrums are awful, in fact in a game of ITM Cup in NZ 2 weeks ago the time on the clock was 77 mins and the "ball in play" came up with one side having the ball for 26 mins and the other 18 mins, the scrum time was 22 mins, 13 mins was not even accounted for, it is just unbelievable.

[Labrador]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Thanks for the excellent write-ups, LeitrimS and Bird. Agree 100% with Bird's last para above - the waste of time at the scrums is dreadful. Makes rugby league a so much better spectacle. It's hard not to envisage Australia getting to the final at least, given their likely route there. They were 6/4 to reach the final but are a best price 6/5 now with Paddy Power. At 25/1 I've had a bet on Aussie Kurtley Beale to be top tournament tryscorer. There are one quarter the odds 4 places availabe with a few firms. Beale has a 1 try per 2 game international record. It's possible he may not make the starting XV for the opening couple of matches, but then I feel it's highly likely he will against both USA and Russia (cannon fodder?) with the chance of keeping his place (perhaps against Samoa) in the quarter finals.

[Spankyf]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

On a different note of sorts, the refs really need to be held accountable for bad decisions. right now there are so many games decided by the refs whistle rather than great play, the scrums are awful, in fact in a game of ITM Cup in NZ 2 weeks ago the time on the clock was 77 mins and the "ball in play" came up with one side having the ball for 26 mins and the other 18 mins, the scrum time was 22 mins, 13 mins was not even accounted for, it is just unbelievable.

Totally agree Bird. I'm so glad the game has tv refs for calls on the line etc. but I hope that we won't be hearing about a missed forward pass for another four years. Its important that the assisstants pipe up when they spot something. It's a shame they didn't listen to former forwards and ditch the 'pause' in the engagement but it is what it is. There are a few excellent refs there, Bryce Lawrence, George Clancy, Steve Walsh and Nigel Owens for example. The thing they have to get right is consistency throughout the competition and across the board, which will be tricky.

[Leeds Legend]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 I just hope Alain Rolland doesn't get any of the finals.... he's abysmal. Agree with the general sentiments though, the sooner they sort scrums out the better. I think we'll see NZ vs England in the final. Australia are a solid unit but their scrum is horrendous. Unless they get very lucky with reffing calls I can see them losing to England or France in the knockout stages. Realistically I think the tournament is NZ's to lose, the pressure and expectation will be enormous, an upset loss in the semis wouldn't surprise me.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 NZ's squad is head and shoulders above everyone else's on paper, but that has been said a lot in the past and the players have failed to deliver. The odds on them represent no value to me because of their past failings, home pressure and the fact that there are so many big game players in the squads of England, Australia, France and South Africa.

[jofusie]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Cant wait for it to begin and I will be in Thailand for september so get to see the games in the afternoon.:beer As for the potential winners: New Zealand,South Africa and Australia and that's it.If England had a few better players they could do it as they have a great attitude and consistently punch above their weight at world cups.We have to remember though that only a few months back England got hammered by Ireland in what was a huge game to win a grand slam.As for Ireland(and i'm irish)the team has some cracking players who play great for their club sides but cant reproduce that form on the international stage.Although capable of causing an upset,unlikely to. The french have a huge squad and could easily field 3 decent teams but at the end of the day they are still french and that means problems.They find a winning team and then change it.I fancy England to beat them in the quarters.South Africa's win against New Zealand at the weekend was huge and they will make the semi's at least.As for the All Blacks they do have the best squad overall,home advantage but really @ 8/15 I wouldnt place my house on them.They should play South Africa in the semis and that would be a very tight game. So that brings me on to my selection and in my eyes the most exciting team in world rugby at the moment,Australia.With an explosive backline full of linebreakers they can demolish a side in 10 minutes as they showed against France.A slight worry this week with O'Connor being suspended for missing a team meeting but I still think he will be one of the stars of the tournament.@ 9/2 I will back them as they should make it to the final at least.

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Rugby is something i have been meaning to post about on this board for a while now but haven't really had the time to start on the domestic front aswell as with the internationals so will probably leave that for 2012. Where better to kick-off than with the Rugby World Cup? 2011 Rugby World Cup Outrights: 1/5pts E/W South Africa to win the tournament - 9/1 with Victor Chandler (1/3 odds, 1-2) 0.5/5pts E/W England to win the tournament - 18/1 with Paddy Power (1/3 odds, 1-2) This should be a cracking tournament and most of the excitement for me leading up to this has been the anticipation of whether the Kiwi's will finally put in the great performance when it really, really matters. Any side that is captained by Richie McCaw, has Dan Carter at fly-half and possesses talent in the backs that is capable of changing a game within a matter of minutes is going to be a huge threat to anyone. New Zealand have gone into the recent World Cup's with high expectations and have failed to produce in the latter stages. Their loss in 2007 to France was blamed in some sections on the referee but that disguised the fact that the Kiwi's just didn't turn up yet again. It summed up the reasons why people doubt their 'bottle'/ They are a best price of 1.65 to win the torunament but i can't be taking that. It's a long tournament and as well as injuries and controversial decisions being able to play their part you do wonder how this side will cope at home with such great expectation from fans and intense media pressure. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if they won it though. Australia, as always, come into the World Cup with solid claims. They have had some good results in 2010 and some poor ones too, losses against England and Ireland will have disappointed them. What puts me off backing the Aussie's is their pack. Yes, i'm firmly in the 'get on top of their pack and you will win' camp, no matter how good the backs are. I expect them to win their group because i don't really rate Ireland when they are not at home and that defeat at the hands of France should worry their coaching staff. Not just the result but the way they struggled for any sort of rhythm is a major negative. If Australia meet England in the semi-final's then i reckon their campaign will finish there, come up against France however and they should win through but with me favouring England in the match-up with France i can't be backing the Wallabie's at the current price. As for France's chances, well its quarter-finals at best in my opinion. They can't be relied upon mentally whilst Lievremont doesn't help matters by chopping and changing far too often. You just can't win tournaments like this by ringing the changes match after match and that's not just in the recent build up to this but for the years beforehand too. Stories about the coach's successor being released just before they head to New Zealand isn't ideal too and will no doubt be a distraction, no matter how big or small that proves to be. Big mistake by the FRF i think. England have the ability to reach the final and have the proven track-record when it comes to producing the goods on a stage this big. However, i just feel they lack a little bit of quality, otherwise they would be definite finalists in my book. I have them down as group winners and winners over the French but although i would favour them over the Aussie's in the semi's, it will still be a tough match. Despite saying that, at 18/1 i still think they are worth a small punt because i believe it offers good value. They have experience in the squad with the likes of Wilkinson, Thompson, Shaw, Easter, Moody and Tindall. Ashton will score tries no matter who he comes up against and if Flood and Youngs are partnered together i feel they will do well, having learnt from the 6 Nations horror show in Ireland. The centre's worry me a little as i don't see much offensive power there but if making the semi-finals, i think the forwards will do the job. The main pick from me will be South Africa. This squad is packed full of experience as they are taking a lot of players that were involved in 2007. Some see that as a negative because it also means that there are quite a lot of ageing bodies in there but, the way they play, i don't see it as that big of a problem. For me, they are one of the best sides around at executing well thought out game plans and even though they haven't had a great tri-nations campaign i still believe that when it comes down to the big moments they have enough in their squad to overcome any side in this tournament. When on form they can nullify the best of attacks and can also run in plenty of tries when needed too, like they showed in 2007. I would have had them at 6s so to find 9/1 on available was a nice surprise. More than happy to get involved at that price. So, a repeat of the 2007 final will do me nicely. Hopefully a different result though. (Tuck those legs in Cueto!!) EDIT: GRAMMAR ERRORS

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 As for the qualifiers from the groups, at the moment i would have the quarter-finals teams as: New Zealand, France, England, Scotland, Australia, Ireland, South Africa and Samoa Will probably be back tomorrow with some bets on the outcomes of the groups as i want to have one last check over my thoughts before placing the bets i have in mind and then doing write-ups on here :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Getting my group outrights in early too. Can't see the prices changing too much either way before September 9th so may aswell get them on now. Pool A No outright bets for me in this group as France and New Zealand will come through it very comfortably and the odds are very short to match that view. Pool B 5/5pts England to win Pool B - 4/9 with Totesport 2/5pts Argentina not to qualify - 11/10 with Betfred I have no problems backing England to win this group with a heavy stake. The incentive is there for them to win every match because it will mean they will probably avoid New Zealand in the quarter-finals. There is now a settled feel about this England squad and their first choice line-up should be more than enough to see off the other 4 sides in the group. The forwards will trouble the likes of Scotland and Argentina not just because of their power but also having good ball carriers in there is a big bonus. Against all the sides in this group the likes of Foden, Ashton and Cueto will get chances to score as none are convincing when it comes to defending deep under sustained pressure. I mentioned in another post in this thread that i worry about the centre partnership but that is only against the bigger sides and i don't think they will have too many worries in that area here. There is a good blend of experience and exciting youth in the squad and it should be good enough to qualify comfortably. Argentina will provide a good test for the opening match but i don't see the Puma's being as much of a threat as they were back in 2007. Every side now has more of an idea about how they play and to be coming into this missing Juan Martin Hernandez is a big blow. They will miss his creativity as there is nobody else in their squad ready to take his place and do the things he can do out on the field. England are the more solid outfit and that will show. I would back this all the way down to 1.3 so the price offers good value. As i see England coming through the group unbeaten it will come down to the Argentina - Scotland match on September 25th to decide who will join them. I think Scotland have improved a lot under Andy Robinson and even though i still wouldn't trust them against the better sides i think they are more than capable of overcoming the Puma's. At the last World Cup they met and Argentina came out the victors but since then they have met 5 times and it has been 3-2 to Scotland in terms of wins. In the last couple of years they have played twice, both in Argentina, and Robinson's men came out on top in both. Beating South Africa last year will have given them huge confidence and the same goes for their win against Ireland earlier this month. They never had the greatest 6 Nations but losses away to France and England are far from disgraceful. The Wales loss was as a result of an awful performance and that is a bit concerning but after that they did improve and come into this off the back of 2 good wins. I see both these sides as being closely matched but slightly favour the Brit's and certainly do at the prices. Scotland are best price of 10/11 to qualify so it's worth backing Argentina not to qualify at 11/10 for the better price. Pool C Australia and Ireland here for me. Italy could be a threat to both sides but i feel they lack the big game players to really trouble them and come through in their place. Prices too short to be getting involved betting-wise. Pool D 1/5pts Samoa to qualify from Pool D - 9/2 with SkyBet This, like Pool B, will be interesting as far as the 2nd placed team is concerned. South Africa will win it, i have no doubts about that at all, and odds of 1/4 for them to do so is about right. The 2nd place spot is wide open in my view and i favour Samoa over Wales and Fiji at the prices. All 3 of these sides are hit and miss so none can be backed with any real confidence and when on-song they can all beat each other. Samoa's recent results are typical of this as after losing to Tonga and Fiji they went on to beat Australia - a result that made everyone sit up and take notice. The way they place is what makes me think they can beat Wales to 2nd spot. They are a very physical side and will expose any weaknesses in the Wales forward line. Alesana Tuilagi is probably the most reliable player they have but the squad has plenty of players with experience of playing Rugby at the top level. They are a bruising side to come up against but within that side are enough players with flair to be able to score their fair share of points. Fiji are fairly similar but i would put them just below Samoa so would prefer the Samoans to come through that match-up despite losing to them earlier in the year. Wales may come through this group but best odds of 2/7 for them to do so are far too short. They drew with Fiji last year and of course lost to them at the 2007 Rugby World Cup. When they met Samoa they were pushed hard in another close contest so there is plenty there to have doubts about the Welsh. Wales should lose their first match so going into the Samoa game won't be easy knowing they have to get the win. Samoa to qualify is available at 5/1 with Ladbrokes but since i work for them i can't take it. I wanted 4s so i am more than happy to take odds of 9/2 with SkyBet.

[Spankyf]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Good stuff Mirage. I took England to win the group at a worse price than that so fair play. Brave play on Samoa to qualify because that group is a minefield; however it's value at 5/1, so I put a small stake on it. Would love to hear some Welsh views on the group if theres anyone out there. A lot of match odd's are beginning to appear and initially I see value in a Japan +50 @ 10/11 in their opener against France and maybe Canada to beat Tonga @ 3/5 for the straight win; i'll wait to see more markets appear there. Was thinking I may as well get to posting the first round of games. Bit of a newbie question here but in the football threads matches all appear posted in the same format. Can anyone tell me what website punters copy + paste the odds from to post matches here?

[boyd]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

	Friday 9 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	New Zealand v Tonga (09:30 BST)	1	91	41	103.43 %
	Saturday 10 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Scotland v Romania (02:00 BST)	1.01	91	34	103.05 %
	Fiji v Namibia (04:30 BST)	1.02	91	23	103.49 %
	France v Japan (07:00 BST)	1	81	41	103.28 %
	Argentina v England (09:30 BST)	5	26	1.22	105.66 %
	Sunday 11 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Australia v Italy (04:30 BST)	1.01	67	19	105.52 %
	Ireland v USA (07:00 BST)	1.01	81	21	105.01 %
	South Africa v Wales (09:30 BST)	1.18	34	6	104.22 %
	Wednesday 14 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Samoa v Namibia (03:30 BST)	1.01	1.01	3.4	227.43 %
	Tonga v Canada (06:00 BST)	1.01	1.01	1.6	260.52 %
	Scotland v Georgia (08:30 BST)	1.01	1.01	3.4	227.43 %
	Thursday 15 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Russia v USA (08:30 BST)	1.01	1.01	1.17	283.49 %
	Saturday 17 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Australia v Ireland (09:30 BST)	1.25	23	3.75	111.01 %
	Saturday 24 September 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	New Zealand v France (09:30 BST)	1.06	34	8	109.56 %

[boyd]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Was thinking I may as well get to posting the first round of games. Bit of a newbie question here but in the football threads matches all appear posted in the same format. Can anyone tell me what website punters copy + paste the odds from to post matches here?

the website is http://www.odds-comparison.co.uk/

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

A lot of match odd's are beginning to appear and initially I see value in a Japan +50 @ 10/11 in their opener against France and maybe Canada to beat Tonga @ 3/5 for the straight win; i'll wait to see more markets appear there. Was thinking I may as well get to posting the first round of games. Bit of a newbie question here but in the football threads matches all appear posted in the same format. Can anyone tell me what website punters copy + paste the odds from to post matches here?

Yeah there are a few i have seen already too but going to risk waiting closer to the time for the matches. The Canada - Tonga match is intriguing, probably one i will leave to be honest. For some ties the bookies are a few points different to each other as far as the handicaps are concerned which is good to see. England/Argentina and Australia/Italy are 2 of them.

[TheRat]

Excellent work in here guys. I can't gelt thinking we are the value here. Last 2 world cups final and won, we are the total opposite to the football team in that we seem to perform better in the tournaments. Last wc we were in dreadful form but this year we go into the tournament playing good rugby, aside from last weeks Wales defeat although that will not be the side we see in the tournament. We have a pretty decent route to the semis and it looks like you are taking a big ew price on that One game pretty much. New Zealand are strong favs as usual but they have only won the tournament once but that was in their own back yard. They are still far too short for a team to win it given their record. Cannot wait for this to start though along with the premiership. Bring on the rugby!

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

We have a pretty decent route to the semis and it looks like you are taking a big ew price on that One game pretty much.

Spot on there. The group doesn't look difficult and the French can never be relied upon, especially under their current coach. So, decent price on the place means a good price to win the semi final. Got to be taken at around 18s in my opinion.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Paddy Power gone 22/1 England

[Aidymac]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Paddy Power gone 22/1 England

Wayyyyyyyy too big a price on the english .... I had them priced up at 12/1 on my tissue.. I had Australia priced @ 7/2 so 9/2 on Australia is value to me too

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Paddy Power gone 22/1 England

Feck! Didn't think they would drift anymore and though the 18s would come in :sad If anyone thinks we will do well against the Irish i would take the 22s now as a win will surely, surely see the price shorten.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Feck! Didn't think they would drift anymore and though the 18s would come in :sad If anyone thinks we will do well against the Irish i would take the 22s now as a win will surely, surely see the price shorten.

On the other hand if we Irish win they might drift out to 25/1...... I can see Ireland winning today, not being biased but we lost the last 3 games and this one is huge to us!

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Yeah, totally agree. A tough decision to make whether to take it or leave it.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Yeah' date=' totally agree. A tough decision to make whether to take it or leave it.[/quote'] I just put 50 quid on it @ 22/1 with the view to lay it off @ 5/1 or 6/1 once they reach the quarters or semi-s..... Seems the best way to play it.. If they get to 6/1 i will lay them for 120 quid, then guaranteed 70 profit... If they get to the semi-s they will be 6/1 at the very most and i can see them getting there... If not, its 50 quid lost, not the end of the world eh!

[jofusie]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Australia are now 3/1 and New Zealand 8/13 from 8/15

[Aidymac]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011

Australia are now 3/1 and New Zealand 8/13 from 8/15

9/2 still available with Stanjames but that wont last long... I am glad i got my bet on @ 9/2 now, they are just after beating New Zealand in the tri-nations! :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Top Tournament Try Scorer 0.5/5pts E/W JP Pietersen - 25/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds - 1,2,3) 0.5/5pts E/W K. Beale - 28/1 with Victor Chandler (1/4 odds - 1,2,3) This is a tough market to predict this year as there is so much talent in all the big sides and then you also have the problem of coaches resting big players against the minnows of their groups. That's why i have only got involved with small stakes as one of the market leaders playing against a weak side early on could have it as good as wrapped up after just one game. The first selection, JP Pietersen, has experience of scoring tries at the World Cup after bagging himself 4 in 7 appearances back in 2007. Overall he has a record of 12 tries in 36 games for his country and that is certainly not poor considering he is constantly playing the likes of New Zealand and Australia. He is part of a solid wing partnership with Habana and they should be first choice going into the tournament so he will get his fair share of games. South Africa have got a tough group but that is part of the appeal to me as i fully expect them to go far in this tournament. The group difficulty is a positive because having the likes of Samoa, Fiji and Wales in there means there aren't many opportunities for the coach to rest his star players. The more games Pietersen gets the better. I like this price so i am happy to get involved and hope he carries on where he left off back in '07. The second player i will take is Kurtley Beale. Beale scored against New Zealand to help the Aussie's secure the Tri-Nations and i thought i would be kicking myself for not taking the big price on Wednesday when i was planning to. However, Victor Chandler have left the 28s there so i have took it quick. Beale is an exciting player who i part of a side that will go far in this World Cup. He is young, strong, surrounded by exciting backs and has the ability to make something out of nothing. He has started his international career well and i think he should go into the tournament as a first choice on the wings. Even if not, and he is left to play the likes of Russia and USA, they are opportunities to force his way into the side. The Aussie's will score plenty of points in this tournament because they have so many flair players, so hopefully Beale will benefit from that creativity and cross the try-line a few times for us throughout the campaign.

[Elchubb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2011 Some good write ups in here so far guys! Will be adding my bets in here closer to the event when i've had a proper look. After a quick look through the prices i saw Chris Ashton for top English try scorer, now at 2.75 i know it's not a big price but i don't think i can realistically see it going to anybody else! With his creativity and unique running lines he can always make something from nothing, especially if Wilkinson is giving him flat ball on the gain line! I think he's one the best wingers in the world at the moment and could run close on tournament top try scorer let alone top English try scorer so i was wondering what others thought about it before i steam into it?