aliando Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Sport Football (England - Cham) Event Blackpool - Derby Selection Blackpool Strength 10/10 Date 17/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.86 Reasoning Both teams come into the game with 100% records behind them. After relegation last year, Blackpool have retained Holloway and the fighting spirirt remains. An opening day victoy at Hull, followed by a draw at Sheff Wed in the cup and then a further win against newly promoted Peterbro has been an encouraging start. With 13 home wins from 23 games when last in the Championship, they showed under Holloway that they can be a force at home. Whilst their 1x2 home record in last seasons Premiership doesn't flatter, it should be noted they scored the same number of goals as Spurs. Charlie Adams has now departed but a breakdown of is stats sees that he scored 4 goals (not including penalties) and made 8 assists last year, so perhaps his loss is not as damaging as may be considered. They have started well and will be quietly confident here, the fact that Derby have won both their games also, may provide that confidence is not overtaken by complacency. Derby, as said above, have started well but it would be a surprise to most to see this run continue. They were overrun at Watford but managed the football equivalent of a 20 year old rioter by looting the Londoners of 3 points. Having lost over half of teir away games last year and no significant personnel changes, their relegation battle looks set to be a fixture at some point. I feel the odds on Blackpool represent both teams having won 2 games and thus, there appears to be value in the home side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August 0-0 or a hammering! ....some prediction that ! I'm only pulling your leg :) i understand what you mean but i think you've answered it yourself in your analysis. The probability of Derby keeping a clean sheet is low and the probability of Derby scoring more than 1 is low too. @ 1.90 or 52% chance of winning, that would be value. I'd feel confident that Blackpool would win if they score at least 2 goals. Is the probabilbilty of them scoring 2 goals or more 52% or higher? Of course they could win 1-0. Suppose it depends whether you bet using Value as your main guideline. I can't decide myself yet which of blackpool/millwall or cardiff is the best bet. I can see reasons for all 3 teams winning but i get a hunch one will fail to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Quote from Clough which tells it's own story on how we'll play tonight "We think we have players who can nick us a goal, either from a set play or from someone like Steven Davies who can get us a goal from nothing, and then the onus is on the opposition to break us down." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Quote from Clough which tells it's own story on how we'll play tonight Does Clough change tactic/mentality if the side go 1 down or does he still remain cautious and hope to pinch a point? I have to say as an outsider, sometimes it's best to adopt your opponents approach and out-play them at it. Blackpool can be more often than not tactically and positionally naive/weak. I think Clough is missing a trick not playing 2 up top to release the ball to and exploit Blackpool's weaknesses. I'd say it's unlikely they'll keep a clean sheet so go for goals. Of course his words could all be a smoke screen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Does Clough change tactic/mentality if the side go 1 down or does he still remain cautious and hope to pinch a point? I have to say as an outsider, sometimes it's best to adopt your opponents approach and out-play them at it. Blackpool can be more often than not tactically and positionally naive/weak. I think Clough is missing a trick not playing 2 up top to release the ball to and exploit Blackpool's weaknesses. I'd say it's unlikely they'll keep a clean sheet so go for goals. Of course his words could all be a smoke screen? Highly doubt it's a smoke screen, we've played this way generally in some form for about 3 years now. If we go one down early we'll open up a bit, but we havent got the players to create chances, if we equalised we'd then go back into our shell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I always find Derby quite unpredictable and never feel comfortable betting on games they are involved in. Perhaps that's why i'm wary of taking on Blackpool, due to an inherent mistrust of Derby lol. Or perhaps i'm over thinking this and should just follow the signs, which do point to a comfortable Blackpool victory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August After delaying to consider, the odds have now dropped with my bookmaker Blackpool now 1.73 Cardiff 1.80 millwall 1.73 I can't decide between the 3 and feel if i choose all 3 only minimal profit will be gained and the risk/reward isn't enough. I'm leaving tonights champioship fixtures alone and going with leicester/barcelona/maccabi in singles/doubles/trebles. Leicester @ 1.55 Not exactly great value but i'll be suprised with anything other than a home. Bristol have conceded 3 in each of their opening 2 games and that alone is enough to give me confidence backing leicester, whom i feel Bristol will find difficult to breakdown. The odds are lowest i'd go and ideally i like about 1.65 but i just can't find value anywhere else. I think it's too early to judge Cardiff no matter how much the bookies are over-rating Brighton (to my suprise). We saw last season how cardiff can throw away points at home and although they have a new manager i need a few more games before i can back them in games like this. Millwall v peterboro Can't get past Millwalls lack of fire power and Peterboro's probability of scoring 1 or more. Blackpool v Derby Everything points to a Blackpool win and by 2 or more goal margin. But i'm just uneasy taking this bet on and at the odds now available sometimes it's best to leave alone and have no regrets. I may look into edging my bets and taking on the 3 draws in singles/doubles (no treble). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I'm banging on the door of lady luck a little with these but hopefully my gut instinct comes through. Blackpool draw Millwall draw Cardiff draw All at 3.60 Singles/doubles/treble Decreasing stakes (more money on singles than doubles and treble) 1 correct = breakeven small stakes I wouldn't recommend these though. I just think the risk/reward is better than the 3 home wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwallchris Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Millwall v peterboro Can't get past Millwalls lack of fire power and Peterboro's probability of scoring 1 or more. Lack of firepower???????? We've scored 2 goals in each of our first two games, how is that a lack of fire power? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August We havent played well in our first two league games this season, the stats show the opposition have both had more chances and attempts on goal. Take away Steve Davies's two great strikes and we'd only have 2 points. We've still got a lot of injuries to key players and untill Clough gets to start the players he wants away from home we'll be looking to defend and play boring football. At Watford on Saturday we didnt create a single chance, i expect us to set up similarly tonight and can only see us scoring through another wonder goal or a piece of luck. Holding Blackpool at there place is very difficult to do and although we've been quite resilient i'll be surprised if they dont score. Saying that, winning breeds confidence and if we can keep them quiet first half we may grow into the game and begin to frustrate them. I think this will either be 0-0 or they'll win by 3 or 4. Hi mate, do you think there might be some value in the corners markets if you expect Derby to park the bus?? Corner stats so far: Derby 4 - 6 Birmingham Watford 12 - 4 Derby Blackpool 10 - 6 Peterboro Hull 4 - 6 Blackpool In the Blackpool - Peterboro game, Blackpool scored in the 44th and 48th min, and so I expect that Peterboro racked up most of their corners in the 2nd half chasing the game. I'm not a great fan of corner handicaps, as goals have a major impact on the flow of games. However Hills go 1.7 on Blackpool to have most 1st half corners. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Hadnt really thought about it but i can see value in the corner market, im almost certain we'll spend most of the game on the back foot no matter the order scoring. Make of that what you will, but Blackpool we'll be on the attack from the first minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I'm banging on the door of lady luck a little with these but hopefully my gut instinct comes through. Blackpool draw Millwall draw Cardiff draw All at 3.60 Singles/doubles/treble Decreasing stakes (more money on singles than doubles and treble) 1 correct = breakeven small stakes I wouldn't recommend these though. I just think the risk/reward is better than the 3 home wins. I'm just wondering why you don't take singles on the three dogs to win outright. Might as well go for the big money. Championship throws a lot of dogs up there...personally, I'd think Peterborough, but then it's usually the one you don't expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BP2011 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Cardiff Vs. Brighton - 1.83 (Bet365) Cardiff had a good 3-1 win against Bristol City on Sunday, dominating the game in the process. They got off to a win against West Ham away in the opening game of the season, perhaps luckily with a last minute winner, but they showed their real class against Brighton, winning breeds confidence. On the injury front, Cardiff are awaiting on the fitness results of Aron Gunnarsson, while the Brighton striker Will Buckley, who scored twice against Doncaster, is out for a fortnight. Both teams have got off to a 100% record so far, but I don't think Brighton will be able to cope with Cardiff tonight. Leicester Vs. Bristol City - 1.50 (Bet365) Leading on, Bristol were poor in the recent match against Cardiff, and I don't see them getting back on track with an away trip to a strong Leicester side. Leicester had a poor outing last time around against Reading, but I think it's fair to chalk that off as one bad performance. There are a lot of things expected of Sven's Leicester City this season and they've bought the players to be promoted with. Bristol City lie at the foot of The Championship with two losses and a goal difference of -5 already. Millwall Vs. Peterborough - 1.66 (Bet365) Millwall are looking to make it three wins in a row as they host Peterborough tonight. Away form has been a problem for Peterborough over the years, in both The Championship and League One, added to that Millwall's strong historical results in this fixture. There isn't too much to note on the injury front and going as it is so early in the season it's difficult to read into results this season too much. I just feel that it's a big ask to go to The Den for the top teams and get a result, never mind a newly promoted side. Everything points to a home win here. Good luck all! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egger74 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August hope your right about Millwall BP2011 waiting on them for a nice bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Millwall v peterboro Can't get past Millwalls lack of fire power and Peterboro's probability of scoring 1 or more. Lack of firepower???????? We've scored 2 goals in each of our first two games, how is that a lack of fire power? I just don't trust your attack to consistently produce the goods and more importantly score more than your defence concedes. Nor do i think 2 games this season with 2 goals in each is over whelming evidence to go against that. Nothing personal against Millwall, just my opinion. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symon Sez Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August where can i watch leicester city game online please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I'm just wondering why you don't take singles on the three dogs to win outright. Might as well go for the big money. Championship throws a lot of dogs up there...personally' date=' I'd think Peterborough, but then it's usually the one you don't expect.[/quote'] Well i did start off contemplating all the home wins but couldn't find value so the next logical step was draws. I can't see past more than 1 away side winning. It's always a gutter to go against a home win and still lose. away or draw never seems much value in most cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A7 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I've gone with over 3.5 goals at odds of 3.6 in the Cardiff vs Brighton game. (Betfair) Score currently 0-0 after 5 minutes or so. I see goals in this. Cardiff put 3 in at home in their last home game. Front 3 of Mason, Earnie and Miller ... so attacking intent. Whittingham chips in with goals too. Brighton are a team also who attack and can score goals. I envisage a game of goals from 2 attacking teams who attack with conviction and go for it. 2 teams with ambition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Well i did start off contemplating all the home wins but couldn't find value so the next logical step was draws. I can't see past more than 1 away side winning. It's always a gutter to go against a home win and still lose. away or draw never seems much value in most cases. I totally agree. I stick to playing the handicaps against large favorites, because teams often fail to cover -1 and -1.5 lines...they don't really need to. Having said that, I began noticing last year just how many Championship away dogs win at odds of 4 and above. I don't have any actual data to back this up, but it seems to me to be a particularly treacherous league. Perhaps dogs of 8 don't win that often, but you could make a case for playing every dog of around 4. Look at so far this season (American odds): week 1 Doncaster +370 L Derby +359 W Reading +297 W Hull +318 W Coventry +330 L yesterday Doncaster +303 L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc0rpio Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August anyone taking cardiff to win in play. 0-1 to brighton at half time. odds like 4.8 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August anyone taking cardiff to win in play. 0-1 to brighton at half time. odds like 4.8 :ok I wouldn't. They have been shite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I wouldn't. They have been shite. 0-2 brighton now, hoping for a quick cardiff reply to keep the draw on track. Hate it when you go against the home win only for the away side to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August What's going on with Leicester! 1-2 (74min) 1.55 too:puke peterboro 2 in quick succession 2-2 now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August how can a team which lost to real madrid 1 - 2 at home , now lose 1 - 2 against Bristol City!?^&$???? i just dont understand Bristol City = Real Madrid ?!@$?? wtf :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A7 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I've gone with over 3.5 goals at odds of 3.6 in the Cardiff vs Brighton game. (Betfair) Score currently 0-0 after 5 minutes or so. I see goals in this. Cardiff put 3 in at home in their last home game. Front 3 of Mason, Earnie and Miller ... so attacking intent. Whittingham chips in with goals too. Brighton are a team also who attack and can score goals. I envisage a game of goals from 2 attacking teams who attack with conviction and go for it. 2 teams with ambition. Well good Sir .... Cher ching :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Leicester City lost 2nd game at home :pukemegapuke i think that with Erikson as a manager they will not get promoted. p.s. as i have seen , that there are NO BIG difference between teams in Championship so i have and idea that - the main thing in every game are motivation , so if the away team are smaller and dont have so good players But they have a big motivation , than they will get at least a point against stronger team. This might sound stupid , but this is just one of my thoughts about lower leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BP2011 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August Cardiff Vs. Brighton - 1.83 (Bet365) Cardiff had a good 3-1 win against Bristol City on Sunday, dominating the game in the process. They got off to a win against West Ham away in the opening game of the season, perhaps luckily with a last minute winner, but they showed their real class against Brighton, winning breeds confidence. On the injury front, Cardiff are awaiting on the fitness results of Aron Gunnarsson, while the Brighton striker Will Buckley, who scored twice against Doncaster, is out for a fortnight. Both teams have got off to a 100% record so far, but I don't think Brighton will be able to cope with Cardiff tonight. Leicester Vs. Bristol City - 1.50 (Bet365) Leading on, Bristol were poor in the recent match against Cardiff, and I don't see them getting back on track with an away trip to a strong Leicester side. Leicester had a poor outing last time around against Reading, but I think it's fair to chalk that off as one bad performance. There are a lot of things expected of Sven's Leicester City this season and they've bought the players to be promoted with. Bristol City lie at the foot of The Championship with two losses and a goal difference of -5 already. Millwall Vs. Peterborough - 1.66 (Bet365) Millwall are looking to make it three wins in a row as they host Peterborough tonight. Away form has been a problem for Peterborough over the years, in both The Championship and League One, added to that Millwall's strong historical results in this fixture. There isn't too much to note on the injury front and going as it is so early in the season it's difficult to read into results this season too much. I just feel that it's a big ask to go to The Den for the top teams and get a result, never mind a newly promoted side. Everything points to a home win here. Good luck all! :ok Oh dear. Apologies to anybody who followed this, just terrible. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August 5 min plus added time for blackpool to give profit on the draw bets (0-1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I totally agree. I stick to playing the handicaps against large favorites, because teams often fail to cover -1 and -1.5 lines...they don't really need to. Having said that, I began noticing last year just how many Championship away dogs win at odds of 4 and above. I don't have any actual data to back this up, but it seems to me to be a particularly treacherous league. Perhaps dogs of 8 don't win that often, but you could make a case for playing every dog of around 4. Look at so far this season (American odds): week 1 Doncaster +370 L Derby +359 W Reading +297 W Hull +318 W Coventry +330 L yesterday Doncaster +303 L Guess I'll start paying even closer attention. Just before the games I put a fiver each on all four dogs to win and draw, and am going to have beer money for the week. To add to the list above: Brighton +360 W Peterborough +422 D (+299) Bristol City +714 W Derby +451 W If anybody has information on HW-D-AW for the Championship in the past season or seasons, I'd appreciate knowing about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: England > Midweek > Championship > 16,17 August I'm banging on the door of lady luck a little with these but hopefully my gut instinct comes through. Blackpool draw Millwall draw Cardiff draw All at 3.60 Singles/doubles/treble Decreasing stakes (more money on singles than doubles and treble) 1 correct = breakeven small stakes I wouldn't recommend these though. I just think the risk/reward is better than the 3 home wins. Gutted! Derby win:loon Brighton win (abit more believable) Another night in the championship goes by, broke even. Should have took the aways on the DNB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.