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Atko

Tennis - 8-15 August

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Sport Tennis Event Wozniak - Peer Selection Wozniak Strength 10/10 Date 10/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.75 Reasoning Wozniak: Aleksandra is very gifted player, in past been TOP20 player, but have injury problems. In this season backing to good form, in last weekend won Challanger on hard surface, must feel confident. Play at home, big support from the crowd! Peer: Peer two weeks ago go to the final at Washington courts, make many points for the ranking. In last year here lost in first round and don't must feel very motivated, not defending points.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August i layed 2-1 win for Isner against Markos @ 4,1 in bf most logically Isner will win this, but my idea for both of them is that they cannot return from a losing set they re both not so well mentally strong that s why they will not be top 5 players though they have the skills i m not an expert so forgive me if i m writing bshit my main purpose is to watch the game with increased interest not to make money very low stakes

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Playing couple more today... Serena Williams vs Alona Bondarenko. 18.5 games. 1.73 @ Nordicbet (5/10) 18.5 games, seriously? Not buying this nonsense. Djokovic has lost just once this year but he has not played since Wimbledon (apart from Davis Cup) and this will be his first match as number one. Will be interesting to see. Davydenko can throw away matches to lesser opponents but when it comes to playing big guns, he's up for the challenge. Djokovic has never beaten him on outdoors hard courts. They have played on this surface just one alright but still. Out of five matches they've contested only one has finished in straight sets and that one had 19 games. Djokovic might be on different planet this year but 18.5 games still is too short, especially against plahyer like Davy.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Sport Tennis Event Dodig - Nadal Selection Dodig +6.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 10/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.85 Reasoning Dodig: Dodig is big server, who feel good on the hard courts. In this year show great skills on AO against Djokovic. Here in first round played against French Player Chardy and won in two sets. Won 75% balls on serve, 11 aces. Nadal: This is first match for Rafal here, can not be easy. Rafael not played in last time and don't have match practice. Players like Dodig are not good to play in first rounds. Sport Tennis Event Petrova - Zvonareva Selection Petrova +3 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 10/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.03 Reasoning Petrova: Nadia is in big form, two weeks ago won tournament in Washington. Take one week break and is fresh and motivated for next great run. In first round here beat good Gajdosova after very good match in straights. Serving very well. Zvonareva: Vera in sunday played Final in Carlsbad, lost against Radwanska in two sets. Vera in my opinion can be tired. Next problem - have negative H2H with Petrova - 2:5.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Gasquet vs Mayer – over 21.5 games 1.85 at bwin (3/10) :\ Murray vs Anderson – Murray -5.5 games 2.38 at Paddy Power (4.5/10):\ Pennetta vs Kirlenko – Pennetta to win 1.91 at Victor Chandler (3/10):ok Serena Williams vs Bonderenko – under 17.5 games 1.80 at bwin (4/10):ok Dubois vs Woerle – over 19.5 games 1.78 at bwin (3.5/10):ok Hantuchova vs Dulko - Hantuchova -5.5 games 1.80 at Bet365 (3.5/10):\
Mixed bag really, small loss for the day takes me down to +3.45 units for the week.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Right, a bit of time to reflect on how I've been doing things on the tennis front has led me to a new strategy, especially in terms of pricing up and being stricter on value. I hope it brings results but won't be having a panic attack if these bring more losers ... - Under 19 games AH (Novak Djokovic v Nikolay Davydenko) @ 2.07 with Pinnacle Only on this because the overs have been battered and this line, and price, has become playable. I don't worry about Djokovic and time off. He's in a zone this year and is highly confident and playing superb tennis. He's been prepping in LA so isn't alien to the surface. He's almost unplayable in rallies and his serve is now a weapon. Davydenko's caused him problems in the past but he's a shell of a man he once was. Very frail on serve and that's where Djokovic should punish him. Can't see this not coming in unless Djokovic is complacent, which he shouldn't be. Covers 6-3 6-4 as well. - Alex Bogomolov +4 games AH (v Gael Monfils) @ 2.15 with Pinnacle Thought this would be a +3 line, so happy with it and the price, which is big for a plus. Not Bogomolov's greatest fan but this has been his breakthrough year. He's been very comfortable and competitive on a hard court in North America. Monfils is more talented but totally unreliable - you never know what we're getting with him. He was fatigued big time in Washington when losing to Stepanek and not sure he'll be fully at the races in this one. Happy to take it on. - Roger Federer -6 games AH (v Vasek Pospisil) @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Big line for Federer's first match since Davis Cup but expected it to be higher. He does well here in Montreal, has plenty of support in Canada and he'll be ready for a tilt at this title. Pospisil was brilliant yesterday against Chela but it will have taken a lot out of him, physically and mentally. Often after a shock, the local player has a comedown, and I think that could happen here. We all know what Federer can do, and he's normally pretty ruthless. He'll want this done quickly, especially with poor weather conditions. Don't fancy Pospisil's chances much here. - Sergiy Stakhovsky +3 games AH (v Nicolas Almagro) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle Stakhovsky had a really good North American swing last year. Conditions definitely suit his attacking game. The Ukrainian's quite patchy but when you catch him on a good day, he's a threat. Rolled Kohlschreiber over yesterday and fancy him to keep it tight with Almagro. It's the Spaniard's first match on hard for some time and it's a surface he never really truly takes to in America. Wipes up on clay and then seems to hibernate at this time of year. Stakhovsky might just want this more, and +3 games is generous when I was originally hunting down +2.5. - Stanislas Wawrinka -4 games AH (v Michael Russell) @ 1.84 with Pinnacle Has the real Wawrinka stood up? He was good against Nalbandian, although the Argentine was average at best. He's another that likes Canada and did well at the US (quarter-final appearance), so he knows the importance of this time of year for his ranking. He's a lot better than Russell - more shots, better movement, better serve - it's just his mentality that goes missing. He looked focused against Nalbandian and has beaten Russell on a hard court before, 6-3 6-4. Like to think he could do it again. The American is solid but generally comes unstuck against the big boys. Good luck to all :hope

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Sport Tennis
Event Marin Cilic vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Selection Juan Martin Del Potro (-3.5 games)
Strength 10/10
Date 10/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.80
Reasoning The head to head is in favor of Del Potro with the score being 3-1. In those 3 times that Del Potro has won, he has covered this handicap with ease. The one time that he lost was with the score 3-2 back in 2010 which could have ended either way with two of the sets ending 5-7 7-5. All in all, I feel Del Potro should win this match covering this handicap on the way.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Sport Tennis
Event Ana Ivanovic vs Iveta Benesova
Selection Ana Ivanovic (-5.5 games)
Strength 10/10
Date 10/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.72
Reasoning Loving this bet. Iveta Benesova is only here in this match because her opponent D. Cibulkova retired. Iveta would not have likely won if she had retired seeing how D.Cibulkova had already broken her once in the deciding set. The score was 7:5 4:6 1:3 when she retired. Ana Ivanovic thrashed her opponent 6:1 6:1 in the opening round and should make light work of Iveta in this match.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Sport Tennis Event Pospisil - Federer Selection Pospisil +6.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 10/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.20 Reasoning Pospisil: Vasek is young player from Canada, big server. In first round make nice win against Juan Ignacio Chela in three sets, must feel confident after this match. Posilip coach is Nemeyer, hwo two years ago played against Federer here(lost 4-6, 6-7). Federer: One month without tennis, don't have match practice. In my opinion don't want win this match fast, want take match rhytm on the Posipil. Sport Tennis Event Wozniak - Stosur Selection Wozniak +3.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 10/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Betway @ 1.85 Reasoning Wozniak: I trust for this girl after yesterday destroy Shahar Peer(6-1, 6-0 WOW). Wozniak is home player and is very, very strong in this moment. Next advantage for Wozniak before this game is H2H, leading 3-1 agaisnt Stosur! Stosur: Samantha is not without the best form, in first round don't looked good against Morita, take win in three sets. Have big problems with movement at the court. Samantha can't win this match in two sets. Sport Tennis Event Voskobaeva - Pennetta Selection Voskobaeva +3.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 10/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.01 Reasoning Voskobaeva: Galina the best surface is hard court - this is girl with nice serve and very good play on the net. In first round make big upset, bit TOP10 Bartoli in striaght sets. Must feel very confident. Pennetta: Pennetta in last weeks is without any form, in last week lost in three sets against Alberta Brianti on hard courts, yesterday make first win, but against injured Kirilenko, who retired in second set.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Wawrinka vs Russell - Wawrinka -4 games 1.91 at bet365 (4/10) Stan is by far the classier player on this surface so should be able to beat this handicap against Russell. In the one previous game they have played on this surface it ended 6-3 6-4. Having thrashed Nalbandian in the first round no doubt he will be eager to continue that form against Russell, who will not be able to contain him if he shows what he did against Nalbandian. Rafa Nadal vs Dodig - under 19.5 games 1.80 at boylesports (3.5/10) Dont think this will be a thrashing for Rafa as it is his first match since Wimbledon but he should have more than enough to see of Dodig relativly comfortably.The only time these two met Rafa won in 17 games so this allows for an extra couple of games if he has any rustiness to shake off. However for both of them its the first hard court comp after the clay / grass season so dont think either has too much of an advantage in that regard. Petrova vs Zvonereva - over 20.5 games 1.80 at unibet (5/10) These pair have played each other 7 times with 5 going over thsis line and the other 2 matches having a very close 19 and 20 games. Zvonereva is in good form having made 2 hard court finals in a row, however Petrova has a 5-2 lead in the H2H so it will not go all of Zvonerevas own way thats for sure. Serena Williams vs Goerges - under 18.5 games 2.0 at paddy power (4/10) Goerges is unconvincing on the hard to say the least as seen in Carlsbad last week where she went out in her opening game to wild card Sloane Stephens. Williams should be able to take advantage of any weaknesses in Goerges game, and being in fine form herself I dont think she will have trouble doing just that. She faced the likes of Sharapova and Lisicki last week and won by 16 and 15 games respectivly so no reason why that can't happen again tonight. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Sport Tennis
Event Player To Win Rogers Cup
Selection Serena Williams
Strength 10/10
Date 14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.96
Reasoning Player To Win Rogers Cup - Serena Williams In my oipnion Serena Williams will win Rogers Cup. She won in Stanford - defeated many good tennis players - Maria Kirilenko, Maria Sharapova, Sabine Lisicki or Marion Bartoli. Marion Bartoli lost in the first round so who can defeat Serena? She will play against Julia Georges in the next match. She leads 1-0 in head-to-head series - won against Julia at French Open last year - destroyed her 6-1 6-1! In quarterfinal she will play against Jie Zheng and I'm sure that she will win. Then 3 matches to win the tournament. Serena destroyed Alona Bondarenko in the first match - won 6-0 6-3. The match lasted only 46 minutes! Williams looks here great! Odd at pinnacle sports maybe is good and I take it!

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August I'm taking 4 today. 3 with the men, one for the women, hoping to build on a promising start to the week. Ivo Karlovic vs Philipp Petzschner- Tie Break in Match- 4/6 Bet365- (6/10) Always like the tie break bets when Karlovic is involved. One of the hardest guys to break on the tour whilst not being great on return. In his last 9 completed matches, there has been at least one tie break in each match, with two coming in his first round match against Monaco. Petzschner although being patchy in parts in his qualifying matches, looked much better against Simon and his serving in particular was better. I can't see him getting too many chances on Karlovic's serve, so as long the German serves decently as well, I fancy as tie break to occur here, like there has been in 3/4 matches between the two in the past. Marin Cilic vs Juan Martin Del Porto- Del Porto -3.5 handicap- Evens Ladbrokes- (5/10) Surpised to see the handicap priced up so high given most bookies have it down at the 1.8 price so happy to take it at evens. I'm still not overly convinced by Cilic this year. He may have had a decent couple of weeks on the clay, but whenever I see him he looks error prone and I feel that someone with Del Porto's ability and power might just win this with a bit to spare. He's getting better everytime I see him, and his grounstrokes against Nieminen looked impressive. Cilic only managed 3 games in their meeting this year, and I trust Del Porto here to win this by 4 games or better. Richard Gasquet vs Thomaz Bellucci- Gasquet -4.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Trust Gasquet with the handicap as well given the tennis he has played this year. He is playing the kind of tennis that saw him be the new French hero as a youngster and it wouldn't surprise me to see him end the year amongst the top 10. He easily beat Mayer in the first round in truth, and didn't show any signs of rustiness given his lack of court time recently on the quicker courts. Bellucci has been very much hit and miss this season as always, but in recent weeks he has been blowing cold. Lost to Scuettler at Wimbledon, and since then, lost to Bogomolov, dropped a set to Haas who is still recovering from injury and trying to get his fitness up, and then only just scraped past an out of form Golubev in round one. He offered a fair amount of chances on serve, and Gasquet is good enough to make the most of those chances. Bellucci will have to improve his recent tennis by about 1000% to trouble Gasquet which I don't see him doing, so I'll back the Frenchman on the handicap here. And one for the women. Caroline Wozniacki vs Roberta Vinci- Under 19.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Very rare do you see the game line so high when Wozniacki is playing but it is what it is after her shoulder injury. Even so, I like the unders here for a couple of reasons. If Wozniacki is fit enough again, she shouldn't have too many problems in winning this one, and if she is fit, she won't want to spend too much time on court. However if it turns out she is struggling and this match is a little early for her, she could roll over and we could see Vinci pick up an easy win. Although there is a bit of chance involved perhaps, the price is good enough for me to back one of the two reasons stated, and I'll hope Wozniacki is fit enough to come back with a bang in this one.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Sport Tennis
Event WTA Rogers Cup 2011 Winner
Selection S Williams
Strength 8/10
Date 10/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.87
Reasoning Decided to pull the trigger before the prices start to plummet. I have read crack's post and have watched both S Williams 1st match as well as the first set of her second match. She won the first match 6-1 6-1 and has won the first set of the second game 6-1 as well. With 4 more matches to win in order for this bet to come in, I feel this has a decent chance of coming in especially if she carries on in this form. Happy to be backing S Williams to win this WTA Rogers Cup.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Serena Williams vs Alona Bondarenko. 18.5 games. 1.73 @ Nordicbet (5/10) :clap Gilles Simon -3.5 vs Philipp Petzschner. 1.78 @ Bwin (5/10) :@ Elena Vesnina > Agnieszka Radwanska. 5.30 @ Pinnacle (3/10) :spank
Simon was incredibly sloppy and Vesnina was more in hope than expectation. Davydenko almost threw away sure winner...

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Maria Sharapova vs Bojana Jovanovski. How did Masha cover unders in this, I really don't know. She was donating game after game in the 2nd set and really deserved to lose that 2nd set. Anyway, good thing it finished the way it did. ;)

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Wawrinka vs Russell - Wawrinka -4 games 1.91 at bet365 (4/10) :ok Rafa Nadal vs Dodig - under 19.5 games 1.80 at boylesports (3.5/10):\ Petrova vs Zvonereva - over 20.5 games 1.80 at unibet (5/10):ok Serena Williams vs Goerges - under 18.5 games 2.0 at paddy power (4/10) :\
A tiny profit for the day, +3.59 for the week .

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August The first day of my new system didn't go especially well, with one winner, one push and four losses. Not giving up hope, however, and aim to bounce back with four bets today. - Janko Tipsarevic -2 games AH (v Ivan Dodig) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 5pts (NAP) Dodig's win over Nadal was spectacular but I feel he's going to struggle today. That marathon will have taken a lot out of him and he's not the sort of player who can get out of jail with groundies if his serve tires. Tipsarevic made the quarters of Washington last week and has appeared solid so far on the US hard court. He beat Dodig earlier in the year, 7-6 6-1, in Delray Beach, so is capable of beating the Croat. The Serb is probably more up to speed on a hard court than Nadal and will be fresher. Thought we'd see a -4 line so ready to hit this one hard. - Over 22 games AH (Mardy Fish v Ernests Gulbis) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle 4pts Repeat of the final in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Gulbis seems to be firing now. His serve is a lot more secure and he's thinking his points through a lot more under Canas. That final was won by Gulbis in three sets and I wouldn't be surprised if we have another overs match. It has all the ingredients. Both men like to attack and both have big serves. Breaks should be at a premium, and 22 games does seem low: it could be covered in two sets. - Stanislas Wawrinka -2.5 games (v Kevin Anderson) @ 2.00 with Pinnacle 4pts Going back to the well with Wawrinka. The Swiss served me well yesterday when he clinically despatched of Russell and although this one will be a lot tougher, I think he can do this against Anderson. The South African is playing good tennis but is hugely reliant on his serve. If that wanes, and Wawrinka is good enough to get a read on it, then he'll lose out in rallies. Think the Swiss is in a good place this week and will smell blood now that Murray and Nadal have departed his section of the draw. Wawrinka won last year on a hard court by four games - the same result wouldn't surprise me here. - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +3.5 games (v Roger Federer) @ 1.99 with Pinnacle 4pts Tsonga's got a chance here. He memorably beat Federer at Wimbledon a few months back and also came back from 5-0 in the final set in Canada in 2009 to beat him. Those results will give the Frenchman confidence and might play on Federer's mind. Both are very assured on serve but Tsonga's got the power and the dynamism to hit through Federer. Always a danger that Federer might hit top mode, in which case the handicap will be blown away, but not sure he's at that level yet. Good luck to all :hope

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August

Hi Atko, GL with your new approach. So now how much do you put on each game or is it flat stake to all?
Sorry, totally forgot to add the points - they are there now. NAP means biggest bet of the round.

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Re: Tennis - 8-15 August Had identified these two bets when the draw for the last 16 was finally confirmed and its good to see Atko agreeing with them as well. Wawrinka vs Anderson - Wawrinka -2.5 games 1.95 at bodog (4/10) Stan has been in good form this week seeing off Nalbandian and then Michael Russell with relative ease and fancy the same thing to happen today. Anderson has the big serve but not much more in my opinion, and Stan with the better all round game should have enough to easily keep his service games and have a good go at breaking Anderson. Only needs a couple of breaks to beat this line and having won the only h2h (on hard as well) by 4 games its certainly seems a doable task. Tipsarevic vs Dodig - Tipsarevic -2.5 games 1.90 at paddypower (4/10) A great result but such tough game for Dodig yesterday that he will have to be suffereing from it surely. Quite often after a major upset, the winner struggles in the next match and Tipsarevic could well be the guy to take advantage of this. He is a solid player and having beat Dodig already 7-5 6-1 in Delray Beach this year he will be confident of another win, and as per that previous head to head i'm happy to take this handicap. :hope

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