Shipsupstreets Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Cambridge City 9/2 Brackley 11/2 Leamington 11/2 Oxford City 10/1 AFC Totton 11/1 Chesham United 12/1 Chippenham 12/1 St Albans 12/1 Barwell 16/1 Stourbridge 16/1 Hemel Hempstead 20/1 Redditch 20/1 Bashley 28/1 Weymouth 28/1 Arlesey 33/1 Hitchin 33/1 Evesham 40/1 Frome 40/1 Swindon Supermarine 40/1 Cirencester 50/1 Banbury 66/1 Bedford Town 66/1 Prices from Corals EW 1/4 1-2-3 For updated prices: http://odds-comparison.bestbetting.com/football/england/southern-premier-league/winner/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 There's always one Step 3 section that poses a particularly thorny antepost problem, and for me this year it's the Evo-Stik Southern. I said in the earlier thread that I thought Cambridge City were poor value favourites - they were great EW value last season and I was happy to back them on here at double figures as a value play. But little has changed this season - they are not hugely stronger than they were in July 2010. They will be decent however, and aside from them there are more than half-a-dozen sides who I think can win the title, and more than half the section with a credible chance of the play-offs. But with so few books out, I'll refrain from commenting further for now on any value plays (Corals were quite sharp in bringing in Chasetown after a brief mention in the Evo-Stik Northern thread). It will be interesting to see what the other books come up with. We should see Skybet's numbers very soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 A thorny antepost section this... Cambridge City are bad value. I backed them EW at a decent price and got a good run last season. What did for them was the small squad that couldn't deal with a sudden crop of injuries and enforced absentees. Nothing has really changed, so Cambridge City are always even more of a fingers-crossed play than most antepost bets at this level. Key squad members are hanging around, including Craig Hammond, but the absence of James Krause and Lee Chaffey from the defence for the first few games is a reminder of how small the squad is. With a fair wind, they'll go very well, but I'd want more in the price. So who can do it? Leamington were another of my picks last season, again at a better price than what's now available. I caught them a few times last campaign, and they were generally pretty dismal. I'm not too concerned about that - you can only ever take a temperature reading if you're not watching a team week in, week out. Of more concern to me was the inactivity of the bench when the going got tough. Paul Holleran has a decent reputation, and he has the player's respect, but I'd like to see him operate more shrewdly. The squad has lost Luke Corbett, but Ben Mackey is a decent replacement and it I'm hoping Leam will have more variation up front. The bulk of the spine - tougher than average and with no little skill - is staying. I'm expecting another big season, though I'm only warm about the best price of 8s. Brackley Town are someone I've did my best to avoid last season. Despite a very good squad, and clearly very healthy backers, they've not really pushed on. Could that change? I think it might. Player boss Jon Brady had a shaky start (often, the formations were rather too complicated), but there was plenty of upward movement in the learning curve towards the end of last season. The squad looks pretty mean, too. Michael Chennels - on trail a Brentford 10 months ago - is a useful option up front, and perhaps he'll find himself chasing the knock-downs from Jefferson Louis. Also added over the summer is Brett Solkhorn, who still has plenty to offer. On paper, this is the best starting XI in the section. 11/2 is about fair value, though I think there is every chance that Brackley will start well. I'm finding hard to split Brackley Town and Leamington at the top. Andy Leese's Chesham United have been having a top pre-season by all accounts, and Simon Thomas has been banging in the goals. Some of you might remember him from his time at Boreham Wood - on his day, almost unplayable at this level. It's very easy to see them kicking on and they are moderate EW value at 12s. AFC Totton at 16s are equally fine value. Stuart Ritchie's side have plenty of goals in them, and the acquisition of Ryan Hill is a useful replacement for Michael Green. It'll be fascinating to see how Mike Gosney gets on - despite being linked with every league club south of Stonehenge in recent seasons, I don't think it's a given he'll succeed. If he is on the boil, though, there will be a lot of nervous full-backs in the Southern League next season. Chippenham Town are a there-or-thereabouts side and it's hard to see much improvement, though Dave Gilroy is a good signing. St Albans City, with David Howells at the helm, will need a year I feel, though I expect them to get stronger as the season wears on. Oxford City have made some useful acquisitions and they are sure to be much more competitive than last season. They have, though, lost Liam Malone to Hemel Hempstead Town, another side that looks much stronger. Hemel have more width, pace and firepower than last season, and though 25/1 is tempting, I think they might have too much to do for a top three slot. I'm really struggling to split Brackley Town and Leamington at the top of the section, but after them I see Chesham United, AFC Totton and Cambridge City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 I was interested to see that the Racing Post tipped Hitchin as an outside e/w bet because we played Hitchin and Cambridge City in pre-season and I thought Hitchin were much tougher opposition and we played them a lot earlier in pre-season than Cambridge. Obviously allowing for the fact we were more up to scratch when we played Cambridge I was still surprised when I looked at the prices and saw Hitchin were 7 times the price of Cambridge City. What I don't know is a lot about the others but Ships, are Hitchin a sporting each way play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 I was interested to see that the Racing Post tipped Hitchin as an outside e/w bet because we played Hitchin and Cambridge City in pre-season and I thought Hitchin were much tougher opposition and we played them a lot earlier in pre-season than Cambridge. Obviously allowing for the fact we were more up to scratch when we played Cambridge I was still surprised when I looked at the prices and saw Hitchin were 7 times the price of Cambridge City. What I don't know is a lot about the others but Ships' date=' are Hitchin a sporting each way play?[/quote'] I wouldn't put you off, Kevshat. In value terms the RP are on to something as there is very likely to be a huge churn in this section this season, and I think there are lot of sides in with a top three chance. Hitchin Town have done very well after losing out to Bury Town and then in the play-offs in 09/10, and following it up with a strong season under a new manager, and a successful play-off campaign after all the shenanigans with Arlesey Town. They look in decent nick, and are clearly in ruder health than Arlesey right now, and are very close to Barwell, who are much shorter in the betting. They've done well to get Marc Leach back, and he should stiffen a defence that looks a touch light. John Frendo is clearly enjoying life at Hitchin, and with some experience at this level from his Hendon and Cambridge City days, I reckon he will go well. In fact, the portfolio of strikers is very strong. The squad overall is pretty young, but they've been brought on organically, and play the game properly. The RP underlined Carl Williams's policy of attacking - a trick he says he learned from Bury Town's magnificent showing a couple of seasons ago - and they will steamroller some of the weaker sides, though they might need to develop a more patient attitude against the more experienced sides. They are definitely better value than many of the sides around them - in fact, of the sides priced over 20s, only Bashley and Hemel looked to me to be better equipped, and even then the differences are only marginal. Certainly Hitchin will be a great play in selected matches, and such is the nature of the Southern Prem this season that they could give you a run EW on the anteposts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Kevshat - Totesport are coming up 33s about Hitchin Town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Cheers Ships, I've had a go at that 33/1 on that analysis so many thanks for that. Frendo scored against us in that friendly and looked a handful. It was only when he went off at half time that we were able to relax and play some of our better football although Willmott and a couple of others played the second half which may have had something to do with it. Even so I was impressed with Hitchin who certainly looked much better than previous Hitchin sides we've faced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Just to say Totesport and Betfred are now the same if you werent aware so thats why Totesport have gone down this low which they dont usually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Skybet have, thus far, priced up only one of the Step 4 Southern, the South & West. It's a tight section with Sholing and Didcot Town heading the market at 5s and 6s respectively. I think Didcot will go well under Francis Vines, but there are a lot of candidates for the top spot in this section. I like the look of Tiverton Town at 8/1 - though I need MDP to offer more insight on that one. It looks to me like Mark Saunders is putting things in place for an early return. The best outsider for me is Poole Town at 16/1, a decent EW play - with Scott Joyce on board and a bit more pace in the side, I think they'll take the step up in their stride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Oh - and worth pointing out that Skybet's 66/1 about Andover is one top avoid: they went pop last month and resigned from the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Sky's Step 4 Southern Central is out. Can't see beyond St Neots Town, and they're my tip for champions, but at 7/4 the price is poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modjadji Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 I'd actually say that 7/4 is far from a poor price considering the money they've spent, the players brought in, their friendly performances etc etc. I make them a 6/4 shot myself. Apparently they opened at 10/1, but I doubt they would have laid too much in a virtual one horse book :eek My team Chalfont should give ew backers a reasonable run for their money at 14s, we've got just about everyone back from last year's championship winning side, a couple of additions especially Iannone from Tring, and we are raring to go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 I'd actually say that 7/4 is far from a poor price considering the money they've spent, the players brought in, their friendly performances etc etc. I make them a 6/4 shot myself. Apparently they opened at 10/1, but I doubt they would have laid too much in a virtual one horse book :eek My team Chalfont should give ew backers a reasonable run for their money at 14s, we've got just about everyone back from last year's championship winning side, a couple of additions especially Iannone from Tring, and we are raring to go! Nice one, Modjadji - I hope there'll be some Step 4 match betting this season. Chalfont are a very interesting call - I'm finding it hard to pick an EW play in this section. I'm lukewarm on Slough Town this season, though if they hook it up they could be very good. Chertsey Town have some decent funding, and I think they'll be decent on their day, though I can't quite see them sustaining a challenge right at the top. I'd say those two had a good chance of a play-off berth, but after that I'm not sure. Burnham look a good bit stronger, so I'd probably add them in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Im guessing there has been a bit of money for Mangotsfield as they know head the market at 7/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Im guessing there has been a bit of money for Mangotsfield as they know head the market at 7/2. There's some reasons for that as they've picked up some good signings over the summer, to add to a fairly solid squad. Feedback from other punters - a straw poll of three! - is that Skybet's are even more sacred than usual: no each way terms, limited singles and no multiples. Make you wonder why they go to all the effort of compiling prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 There's some reasons for that as they've picked up some good signings over the summer, to add to a fairly solid squad. Feedback from other punters - a straw poll of three! - is that Skybet's are even more sacred than usual: no each way terms, limited singles and no multiples. Make you wonder why they go to all the effort of compiling prices. I havent tried to place a bet but you may as well add me to that list given the limits they place on me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modjadji Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 I'd actually say that 7/4 is far from a poor price considering the money they've spent, the players brought in, their friendly performances etc etc. I make them a 6/4 shot myself. Now 5/4 :rollin Slough are surely overpriced at 10s having made the play offs last time around, and they've strengthened. Their supporters reckon they will chase St Neots home, time will tell. On the subject of match betting, I am pretty certain that you will get prices with bwin, although don't expect to get much on.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 I doubt you will as they stopped betting on Step 4 during last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modjadji Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Really? Very sad to hear that, was fancying my chances of making a few quid on this division in the forthcoming season :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: England > Non-league antepost > Evo-Stik Southern Prem 2011/12 Really? Very sad to hear that, was fancying my chances of making a few quid on this division in the forthcoming season :cry Think it was Feb/March time although I dont suppose bwin would have let you win much anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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