Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom You sure love giving out the thanks Stable Master! :cheers Hope we can continue with today's run of racing losers.

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 30/7 - Day 9 Month 1 Too high: 8.10 Hamilton - Bouncy Bouncy (max 5.0) BSP 6.20 Actual Bets: 4.10 Thirsk - Powerful Presence (max price 5.0) BSP 4.79 +1.95 pts 4.20 Goodwood - Sports Section (max 5.0) BSP 3.58 +1.95 pts 5.05 Doncaster - Pintrada (max 4.0) BSP 2.85 +1.95 pts 5.55 Lingfield - All Honesty (max 5.0) BSP 4.36 +1.95 pts 7.10 Hamilton - Senate Majority (max 5.0) BSP 4.40 +1.95 pts 7.55 Lingfield - Sea Odyssey (max 5.0) BSP 1.94 -1.88 pts Day Profit/Loss: +7.87 pts Month bank: 130.75 pts Month profit: 30.75 pts, 30.75%

[mister magoo]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Keep up the excellent work m8...you should add another "F" for "fantastic"... :notworthy

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom

Keep up the excellent work m8...you should add another "F" for "fantastic"... :notworthy

Thanks for the fantastically ;) kind words Mister Magoo! :ok But heres's the bad stuff that no-one wants to read: statistically we are running a bit over expectation the past week. It's really easy to get excited when things are going well, but you will find out what you're made of when the inevitable losing streak occurs. My job is to separate my ego from my selections and not think I am bulletproof when we get lots of losers, or get depressed when those horses start getting up and coming home first at the post. Just keep stakes small, don't expect too much, and expect swings in the bank. Selections 31/7 - Day 10 Month 1 3.40 Market Rasen - Executives Hall (maximum price 5.0) 3.55 Newbury - Dare to Dream (max 5.0) 4.50 Market Rasen - Cloudy Dawn (max 5.0) 5.00 Newbury - Tyfos (max 5.0)

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 31/7 - Day 10 Month 1 Too high: 5.00 Newbury - Tyfos (max 5.0) BSP 5.86 Actual bets: 3.40 Market Rasen - Executives Hall (maximum price 5.0) BSP 4.90 +1.95 pts 3.55 Newbury - Dare to Dream (max 5.0) BSP 2.93 -3.86 pts 4.50 Market Rasen - Cloudy Dawn (max 5.0) BSP 3.60 +1.95 pts Day P/L: +0.04 pts Month bank: 130.79 pts Month profit: +30.79 pts, +30.79%

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Mostly because it is the first day of a new month I will start increased staking on the bank from today. In the future the bank will be increased (decreased?) on the first of each month, and so we will have at least 30 days of staking at the same bet level. As always, the goal is to win 12% on the bank each month over 60 months (5 years) which will increase the bank by a factor of 1000. July results: +30.79% TARGET REACHED July start bank: 100 pts July stake to win: 2 pts (1.95 pts after commission) July end bank/August start bank: 130.79 pts August stake to win: 130.79/50 = 2.61 pts (2.48 pts after commission) The immediate goal for August is to win 6 points where each point is 2% of the bank, so producing a 12% (or more) gain for the month. Divide bank by 50, remember this number, then hit the Lay button and put it in. Simples. It needs to be pointed out that the official PL results are much better than my own. During the same July time period I got +17% and this is because I cannot actively manage my positions. I have to set my stake and leave the computer. This has two consequences: - horses steam in and I may lay 0.5 - 1 point or more above the official Betfair SP - A lot of horses drift out. I may get on early and the horse drifts to 6.0 or so then wins, and July has had an appalling number of the drifters that go on to win their race. There will be two rules when recording official results from here on: 1) all bets will be taken at the worst case standard commission rate of 5% rather than the 2.5% previously 2) the max odds cutoff. Never take any horse that is trading over 5.0. If it is on the borderline then fire in the bet for 5.0 and see what happens. All horses that have Betfair SP up to and including 5.2 will be included as part of the official bet picks. This is just because the off may be delayed - you could get on at 5.0 but the horse drifts a tick or two and returns BSP 5.15. No bet over 5.0 odds! Picks for the day will come in a couple of hours when the markets are better formed.

[Sawyer]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Makes sense to increase your stakes as your bank grows up. As Albert Einstein said, Compound Interest is the most powerful thing in universe. I wish you a profitable August :ok

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 1/8 August Start Bank: 130.79 pts August Stake: 2% = 2.61 pts (2.48 pts win after 5% commission) 4.00 Newton Abbott - Bahr Nothing (max odds 5.0) 5.00 Newton Abbott - Bobby Donald (max 5.0) 7.10 Windsor - Rebecca Romero (max 5.0)

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 1/8 August Start Bank: 130.79 pts August Stake: 2% = 2.61 pts (2.48 pts win after 5% commission) Too high: 5.00 Newton Abbott - Bobby Donald (max 5.0) BSP 7.33 Actual Bets: 4.00 Newton Abbott - Bahr Nothing (max odds 5.0) BSP 4.92 +2.48 pts 7.10 Windsor - Rebecca Romero (max 5.0) BSP 3.25 -5.87 pts Day P/L: -3.39 pts Current Bank: 127.4 pts Month P/L: -3.39 pts or -2.59%

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 2/8 Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Stake to Win for August: 2.61 pts (2%) 2.30 Catterick - Dark Spirit (max odds 5.0) 3.45 Bath - Atlantic Cycle (max 5.0) 4.00 Catterick - Blown It (max 5.0) 5.00 Catterick - Twennyshortkid (max 5.0) 6.30 Ffos Las - Qahriman (max 2.0) 7.30 Southwell - Think It's All Over (max 5.0)

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 2/8 Very frustrating past two days, with big steamers winning (two by a head) and the losers drifting too far out. Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Stake to Win for August: 2.61 pts (2%) Too high: 3.45 Bath - Atlantic Cycle (max 5.0) BSP 6.0 5.00 Catterick - Twennyshortkid (max 5.0) BSP 5.23 Actual bets: 2.30 Catterick - Dark Spirit (max odds 5.0) BSP 2.37 -3.58 pts 4.00 Catterick - Blown It (max 5.0) BSP 2.47 -3.84 pts 6.30 Ffos Las - Qahriman (max 2.0) BSP 1.58 -1.51 pts 7.30 Southwell - Think It's All Over (max 5.0) BSP 3.12 +2.48 pts Day P/L: -6.45 pts Current Bank: 120.95 pts August P/L: -9.85 pts, -7.5%

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 3/8 A whole lot of small field uncompetitive crud around today. Let's aim for 100% all green. 3.40 Pontefract - Cluoin Dara (max 5.0) 7.00 Kempton - Na Zdorovie (max 5.0) 8.00 Kempton - Planetoid (max 5.0)

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 3/8 3.40 Pontefract - Cluoin Dara (max 5.0) BSP 6.40 NO BET 7.00 Kempton - Na Zdorovie (max 5.0) BSP 2.27 +2.48 pts 8.00 Kempton - Planetoid (max 5.0) BSP 2.17 -3.05 pts Day P/L: -0.57 pts Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Current Bank: 120.38 pts Month P/L: -10.41 pts, -8%

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 4/8 Take all at max odds up to and including 5.0: 3.00 Brighton - Lady Florence 5.00 Brighton - Mighty Mambo 5.40 Sandown - Blanc de Chine 6.20 Chepstow - Spice Bar 7.55 Sandown - Dysios 8.15 Folkestone - Satwa Sunrise 8.25 Sandown - Cultural Desert :loon

[conrad8000]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom PERFECT DAY!!!!:clap Good job on some awesome picks.. Keep it up, so i can be in on the financial freedom thing:p

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 4/8 Take all at max odds up to and including 5.0: 3.00 Brighton - Lady Florence BSP 5.14 -10.44 pts 5.00 Brighton - Mighty Mambo BSP 2.30 +2.48 pts 5.40 Sandown - Blanc de Chine BSP 3.04 +2.48 pts 6.20 Chepstow - Spice Bar BSP 7.0 7.55 Sandown - Dysios BSP 5.32 8.15 Folkestone - Satwa Sunrise BSP 4.48 +2.48 pts 8.25 Sandown - Cultural Desert BSP 4.08 +2.48 pts Day P/L: -0.52 pts Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Current Bank: 119.86 pts Month P/L: -10.93 pts, -8.4%

PERFECT DAY!!!!:clap Good job on some awesome picks.. Keep it up, so i can be in on the financial freedom thing:p

Glad you are so happy but because of the rules I have to include Lady Florence winning, ugh. So it doesn't count for an official perfect day but I am sure a lot of people missed laying that horse.

[conrad8000]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Luckily i did. When i checked it, it was trading at around 7.0, so i did not think it would come down to around the 5.0 mark. Good thing i did not check again:)

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 5/8 All selections are to be taken up to and including max odds 5.0: 4.00 Brighton - Fluctuation 4.50 Worcester - Rowdy Rampage 6.20 Newmarket - Speedi Mouse 8.30 Newmarket - Long Awaited Been hitting the crossbar the past few days, let's hope the ball ends up in the net today and we go all-green.

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 5/8 Yet again just one horse slips through and costs us a good day. Luckily the odds were so low that a profit was made. Still just one good day away from a profit for the month. 4.00 Brighton - Fluctuation BSP 3.15 +2.48 pts 4.50 Worcester - Rowdy Rampage BSP 3.19 -5.72 pts 6.20 Newmarket - Speedi Mouse BSP 3.90 + 2.48 pts 8.30 Newmarket - Long Awaited BSP 2.16 +2.48 pts Day P/L: +1.72 pts Month Start bank: 130.79 pts Current Bank: 121.58 pts Month P/L: -9.21 pts, -7%

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 6/8 I would love to finish the week breaking even or a little bit up. Sunday we can realistically expect only one or two good picks so it has to be today. Cross your fingers! All to be taken up to and including max odds 5.0: 3.30 Redcar - Thatcherite 3.55 Haydock - Green Park 4.50 Newmarket - Danville 7.10 Ayr - Jaldarshaan 8.10 Ayr - Circus Clown

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 6/8 All to be taken up to and including max odds 5.0: 3.30 Redcar - Thatcherite BSP 5.20 +2.48 pts 3.55 Haydock - Green Park BSP 9.34 NO BET 4.50 Newmarket - Danville BSP 5.56 NO BET 7.10 Ayr - Jaldarshaan BSP 4.76 +2.48 pts 8.10 Ayr - Circus Clown BSP 2.07 -2.79 pts Day P/L: +2.17 pts Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Current Bank: 123.75 pts Month P/L: -7.04 pts, -5.4%

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 7/8 Thanks for the Thanks SM, but please wait until I deliver a profit for the month! :loon Just the one on Sunday, which is a traditionally tricky day. Note the changed max odds. If it drifts and you are uncomfortable with risking max 12% of the bank at 2% to win then just risk whatever you do feel comfortable with, say 1.5% or 1% to win. For purposes of this thread results will be recorded as if 2% was staked. :ok I don't like to mix around staking too much but now I have enough data to start taking odds ranges which are slightly higher. 3.15 Leicester - Highland Colori (max odds 7.0) Let's rock.

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 7/8 3.15 Leicester - Highland Colori (max odds 7.0) BSP 4.74 +2.48 pts Day P/L: +2.48 pts Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Current Bank: 126.23 pts Month P/L: -4.56 pts, -3.5% Done and dusted for today. Two winning bets to move into the green. See you all tomorrow. :ok

[Sawyer]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom One shot, One kill :ok

[conrad8000]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Since im no horse racing expert, will you be able to do selections all year or do you plan to go on winter hiatus at some point?

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom

One shot, One kill

BOOM headshot.

Since im no horse racing expert' date=' will you be able to do selections all year or do you plan to go on winter hiatus at some point?[/quote'] I will do this all year round. It doesn't take too long each day and I don't see anything coming up that will stop me from posing in the next few months. Selections 8/8 Had a read through last weeks results - far too much laying speculative low-price garbage. Will remember to aim more for quality and a better strike rate at a slightly higher price. Been over the cards a few times, not much that I am super confident in, unlike yesterday's pick. :hope 7.30 Thirsk - Uptown Boy (max 6.0) 8.00 Thirsk - Jamaican Bolt (max 5.0)

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom

7.30 Thirsk - Uptown Boy (max 6.0)

Sorry, correction 7.30 Thirsk - Uptown Guy Most people prolly figured it out already.

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 8/8

Been over the cards a few times, not much that I am super confident in, unlike yesterday's pick. :hope

If that's the case, then why the F did I bet at all? Nothing immediately jumped out so I went back and hammered a horse into my selection criteria and he won. Lesson learned. 7.30 Thirsk - Uptown Boy (max 6.0) BSP 4.61 -9.42 pts 8.00 Thirsk - Jamaican Bolt (max 5.0) BSP 3.55 +2.48 pts Playing snakes and ladders with the bank. As soon as we are about to go into profit we slide back to the Start square again. Still only about four really good lays to start going somewhere. Day P/L: -6.94 pts Month Start Bank: 130.79 pts Current Bank: 119.29 pts Month P/L: -11.5 pts, -8.8%

[DC]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom You're still ahead of target though aren't you DM? First month target was to make 6 points at 2% of 100 = 12 points - achieved This month's target to make 6 points at 2% of 112 = 13.44 points - only 6.15 points off this and 20 days to go....

[DM99]

Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom

You're still ahead of target though aren't you DM? First month target was to make 6 points at 2% of 100 = 12 points - achieved This month's target to make 6 points at 2% of 112 = 13.44 points - only 6.15 points off this and 20 days to go....

Right Danny. That's another way to put it. Unless something really bad happens we are green overall. It is very frustrating that the difference between a loss and more-or-less breaking even came down to a single lapse of discipline. But no use crying over spilt milk, it's all done now, let's focus on the future. Selections 9/8 All to be taken up to and including odds 6.0, and official BSP of 6.0 will be the cutoff for recording results. Still risking 2% of the bank as of the first of the month. 3.30 Ayr - Sistine 4.00 Ayr - Jonny Delta 4.45 Newton Abbot - Surfboard 6.45 Nottingham - Long Lost Love 7.30 Ffos Las - Sulis Minerva