DM99 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 After repeatedly running small amounts up to big amounts and losing those big amounts inside of a week or two I decided to put betting on the backburner and focus on other things in my life. This is a new strategy that focuses on laying low-priced horses to a small proportion of my bankroll and you're invited to join me. The key is small, consistent profits. Even small winnings will snowball into huge sums if they are allowed to compound. The minimum goal is to achieve 6 points profit per month. "But DM99!" I hear you say "that is tiny, and will never get you anywhere! I can make that in a day!" If you can make 6 points profit per month at a minimum where each point is 2% of your bank, then the bank doubles every six months. The financial goals are as follows: End of year one: 4 x start bank End of year two: 16 x start bank End of year three: 64 x start bank End of year four: 256 x start bank End of year five: 1024 x start bank This is LONNGGGG term. You need to bet on low priced horses since these are the only ones that have the liquidity, but this won't be an issue for at least another three years or so. You need to think really long-term here and don't get hung up over any bad week or month. If you stake a small amount of your bank per bet you will have plenty left to carry on. You also need consistency - the ability to get up after a really bad day with your emotions intact. Staking The only iron-clad rule here is with staking. Each month the bank will be adjusted into 1/50th or 2% sized points, and staking will be such that we win 1/50th or 2% of the bank (minus comms) after each successful lay; and we risk (horse odds - 1) x 2% each lay bet. Max odds will be around 5.0, so this is a max loss of 8% of the bank per bet, but we should average lower than that. I will try my hardest to get horse selections in more than 1 hour before the races kick off with max lay odds. For recording purposes I will use Betfair SP, it is not ideal and some horses will straddle the max odds boundary but it is the best we have. If a horse is on the odds border then take it if you are more aggressive, otherwise, play it safe and wait for the next one. Let's start with my brand new Betdaq account (with 2.5% comms) and initial bank of 100 units. Our lays will therefore win 1.95 units and our target for the next 30 days is to make the bank 112+ units. Remember: think long-term, consistency, and low risk per bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Six potentials today, all designed to be taken with max odds. Please note that they are not all the same! As stated above, use your common sense. The max odds are designed to limit exposure - if a horse is just a few ticks outside the odds limit then feel free to take it if you are comfortable with the extra risk. 4.30 Ascot - Point North (max odds 5.0) 4.40 Southwell - Pippa Greene (max odds 2.0) 5.30 Thirsk - Royal Blade (max odds 4.0) 7.50 Chepstow - Just for Mary (max odds 5.0) 8.10 Newmarket - Ithoughtitwasover (max odds 4.0) 8.30 York - Irish Boy (max odds 5.0) :hope that I don't get Bismarcked on Day One. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Good luck mate! Really liked the thread. FFFF :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Good luck mate! Really liked the thread. FFFF :D Cheers mate! Actually it's FFFFF :cigar All the best with your lay thread as well! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 22/7 Results Obviously far too high and no bet: 4.30 Ascot - Point North (max odds 5.0) BSP 6.03 4.40 Southwell - Pippa Greene (max odds 2.0) BSP 2.20 8.10 Newmarket - Ithoughtitwasover (max odds 4.0) BSP 8.29 8.30 York - Irish Boy (max odds 5.0) BSP 6.93 Bets Taken: 5.30 Thirsk - Royal Blade (max odds 4.0) BSP 2.62 +1.95 units 7.50 Chepstow - Just for Mary (max odds 5.0) BSP 4.95 +1.95 units Bank now 103.9 units, +3.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Potentials for today: 2.55 Newcastle - Namwahjobo (max 0dds 4.0) 4.05 Newcastle - Falcun (max 5.0) 4.40 Newcastle - Pavershooz (max 5.0) 5.00 Newmarket - Watered Silk (max 5.0) 5.45 Lingfield - Ishikawa (max 5.0) 5.50 Newcastle - Chapter Five (max 5.0) 7.55 Lingfield - El Maachi (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 23/7 Results Too high and no bet: 2.55 Newcastle - Namwahjobo (max 0dds 4.0) BSP 4.45 4.05 Newcastle - Falcun (max 5.0) BSP 8.20 4.40 Newcastle - Pavershooz (max 5.0) BSP 9.88 5.00 Newmarket - Watered Silk (max 5.0) BSP 6.20 5.45 Lingfield - Ishikawa (max 5.0) BSP 6.19 Bets Taken: 5.50 Newcastle - Chapter Five (max 5.0) BSP 3.93 +1.95pts 7.55 Lingfield - El Maachi (max 5.0) BSP 4.29 +1.95 pts Month start bank: 100 pts Month profit: +7.8 pts or 7.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Great start! Keep it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 24, 2011 Author Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Thanks Jay! Very early days yet and frustrating in that every horse that has been just outside the odds range has lost as well, but playing it very conservative for now. The picks for Sunday: 3.15 Pontefract - Hot Spice (take at up to 5.0) 5.00 Pontefract - Nordic Sky (max 2.0) 5.10 Ascot - Medicean Man (max 5.0) 5.20 Carlisle - One Pursuit (max 5.0) 5.30 Pontefract - Sleepy Blue Ocean (max 5.0) And as always, aim to win 2% of bank (minus comms) with every horse and don't give up when we hit the inevitable losses! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Good idea to limit your liability by setting a max odds limit. Good luck today! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 24, 2011 Author Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 23/7 Results A bad day overall with far too many losing bets but meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Too high: 5.00 Pontefract - Nordic Sky (max 2.0) BSP 2.25 5.20 Carlisle - One Pursuit (max 5.0) BSP 6.0 5.30 Pontefract - Sleepy Blue Ocean (max 5.0) 5.82 Bets: 3.15 Pontefract - Hot Spice (take at up to 5.0) BSP 3.05 +1.95 pts 5.10 Ascot - Medicean Man (max 5.0) Taken 5.0 BSP 5.60 -8 pts Medicean Man I will include as the price was bouncing around a lot. If you got it as I did, bad luck, but these will even out in the long term. Today P/L: -6.05 pts Bank: 101.75 pts +1.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Medicean Man killed me too :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 25/7 Selections - Day 4 Month 1 4.00 Ayr - Mariner's Lodge (max price 5.0) 5.30 Ayr - Abernathy (max 5.0) 8.40 Windsor - Kishanda (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Good idea to limit your liability by setting a max odds limit. Good luck today! :ok Limiting odds is a double edged sword - you limit your potential losses on any one horse but you don't get the winnings from the really juicy lays that drift. When I have more data on the win rate of those that are above the odds range I will see if it is worthwhile making the max price 6.0 or 7.0 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 25/7 Results - Day 4 Month 1 Too high: 4.00 Ayr - Mariner's Lodge (max price 5.0) BSP 5.47 Actual bets: 5.30 Ayr - Abernethy (max 5.0) BSP 4.50 +1.95 pts 8.40 Windsor - Kishanda (max 5.0) BSP 2.94 +1.95 pts Month bank: 105.65 pts Profit: 5.65 pts, +5.65% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 26/7 Selections - Day 5 Month 1 2.00 Goodwood Modun (oppose at up to 5.0) 2.45 Beverley Smart Violetta (max 5.0) 3.20 Beverley Mujrayaat (max 4.0) 5.05 Beverley Lemon Drop Red (max 4.0) 6.25 Worcester Hayden's Mount (max 5.0) 8.40 Perth Sun Tzu (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom 26/7 Selections - Day 5 Month 1 No bet: 2.45 Beverley Smart Violetta (max 5.0) BSP 12.26 Bets taken: 2.00 Goodwood Modun (oppose at up to 5.0) BSP 4.18 +1.95 pts 3.20 Beverley Mujrayaat (max 4.0) BSP 3.19 +1.95 pts 5.05 Beverley Lemon Drop Red (max 4.0) BSP 4.06 +1.95pts 6.25 Worcester Hayden's Mount (max 5.0) BSP 5.21 +1.95pts 8.40 Perth Sun Tzu (max 5.0) BSP 2.80 +1.95 pts Bank: 115.4 pts Month profit: 15.4 pts, +15.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom :hope how did you calculate max odds ? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom :hope how did you calculate max odds ? ;) How Did I Calculate Max Odds By an examination of risk vs reward. I base some of my picks on a laying method and the suggested max odds there is 4.7. I round it off to 5.0 so I can get more picks and I am comfortable with the increased liabilities from doing so. Where Did I Get The Max Odds From Timeform Betfair page - Betfair SP is the most fair price to use for results as they have very good liquidity and only one account is needed that way. The Final Question I Was Meaning To Ask: Why The Hell Are Some Of Your Picks Above The Max Odds You Wrote Before? As stated the max odds are 5.0, plus a couple of ticks to account for the times when you manage to get 4.9 - 5.0 and Betfair SP returns higher. It is impossible to know exactly what Betfair SP is in advance of the off. All I can do is make judgements about what most likely happened and it is extremely unrealistic to always include those picks that returned 4.94 but exclude those that returned 5.08. You need to look at the overall picture, not the details. The major reason for the odds cutoff is to avoid laying at very high liabilities. A lot of these horses drift, some win, most lose, but I have to draw an arbitrary line somewhere. I can justify this by making the true statement that over time the winnings and the losings from horses on the edge of the odds range will cancel out, and just as long as I don't cherry pick the results at that boundary (eg I show winnings from all horses 5.0 - 5.5 but don't include any losers) then we will reach the same place long-term. If any admin wants me to have a strict odds boundary to avoid arguments I am willing to do so, but I would prefer it if I didn't have to babysit and people could exercise a bit of judgement instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Well done yesterday DM99 and good luck with your quest :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Well done yesterday DM99 and good luck with your quest :ok Cheers DC, thanks for the support! :cigar Selections 27/7 - Day 6 Month 1 2.10 Redcar - Daffydowndilly (max price 2.0) 4.30 Redcar - Intiqaal (max 5.0) 8.05 Sandown - Hunter Command (max 4.0) 8.35 Sandown - Mungo Park (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conrad8000 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Cool project, and keep up the good work! Might even jump in on the action:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conrad8000 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Decided to join your picks for today in will look to do so in the future as well.. Congrats on the profot for today:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 27/7 - Day 6 Month 1 Too high: 2.10 Redcar - Daffydowndilly (max price 2.0) Actual bets: 4.30 Redcar - Intiqaal (max 5.0) BSP 4.12 +1.95 pts 8.05 Sandown - Hunter Forward (max 4.0) BSP 2.7 -3.4 pts 8.35 Sandown - Mungo Park (max 5.0) BSP 3.55 +1.95 pts Month bank: 115.90 pts Month profit: 15.9 pts, or 15.9% Decided to join your picks for today in will look to do so in the future as well.. Congrats on the profot for today:ok Cheers Conrad. A tiny profit is a profit nonetheless. Remember that this is a long term project and there will be many swings up and down along the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 28/7 - Day 7 Month 1 4.05 Nottingham - Set To Music (oppose at up to 4.0) 4.40 Nottingham - Maloof (max 5.0) 5.05 Stratford - Royal Max (max 5.0) 7.40 Epsom - Cross Culture (max 5.0) 7.55 Ffos Las - Plattsburgh (max 5.0) 8.10 Epsom - Treasure Way (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom GL Today DM! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 28/7 - Day 7 Month 1 Actual Bets: 4.05 Nottingham - Set To Music (oppose at up to 4.0) BSP 3.05 -4.1 pts 4.40 Nottingham - Maloof (max 5.0) BSP 3.34 +1.95 pts 5.05 Stratford - Royal Max (max 5.0) BSP 2.90 +1.95 pts 7.40 Epsom - Cross Culture (max 5.0) BSP 5.1 +1.95 pts 7.55 Ffos Las - Plattsburgh (max 5.0) BSP 4.5 +1.95 pts 8.10 Epsom - Treasure Way (max 5.0) BSP 3.50 +1.95 pts Day Profit: +5.65 pts Month Bank: 121.55 pts Month Profit: 21.55 pts, +21.55% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Running too hot the past few days. What goes up must come down and all that. Selections 29/7 - Day 8 Month 1 3.55 Bangor - Turn Up (max price 4.0) 4.05 Thirsk - Miss Topsy Turvy (max 5.0) 5.30 Bangor - Surfboard (max 5.0) 5.35 Bath - Sarangoo (max 5.0) 5.50 Newmarket - Joe Strummer (max 5.0) 7.30 Newmarket - Sir Mozart (max 5.0) 8.25 Bath - Madison Square (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Results 29/7 - Day 8 Month 1 Too high: 5.30 Bangor - Surfboard (max 5.0) BSP 7.71 5.50 Newmarket - Joe Strummer (max 5.0) BSP 5.59 7.30 Newmarket - Sir Mozart (max 5.0) BSP 6.05 Actuals: 3.55 Bangor - Turn Up (max price 4.0) BSP 3.69 +1.95 pts 4.05 Thirsk - Miss Topsy Turvy (max 5.0) BSP 3.26 -4.52 pts 5.35 Bath - Sarangoo (max 5.0) BSP 3.28 +1.95 pts 8.25 Bath - Madison Square (max 5.0) BSP 3.07 +1.95 pts Total bank: 122.88 pts Day profit/loss: +1.33 pts Month profit: +22.88 pts, + 22.88% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: Fading Favourites for Financial Freedom Selections 30/7 - Day 9 Month 1 4.10 Thirsk - Powerful Presence (max price 5.0) 4.20 Goodwood - Sports Section (max 5.0) 5.05 Doncaster - Pintrada (max 4.0) 5.55 Lingfield - All Honesty (max 5.0) 7.10 Hamilton - Senate Majority (max 5.0) 7.55 Lingfield - Sea Odyssey (max 5.0) 8.10 Hamilton - Bouncy Bouncy (max 5.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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