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Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

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ultravires

ultravires

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July I'm quite happy to back Uruguay in their semi-final against Peru. Both came through very tough games. Uruguay had the bigger scalp in Argentina, but Peru still beat Colombia who had looked solid. Both were a little bit lucky too as Uruguay were hanging on more than once and Peru should have been 1-0 down had Falcao not messed up from the spot. They are two immensely hard working and tough teams. Coupled with it being a semi-final I automatically think of under 2.5 yet again. But at 1.47 (Bet365) I just wont even consider it. I do consider Uruguay to quite heavy favourites in this match, despite the 'dogs throwing up a lot of surprises in this tournament. They possess the greater quality individually while carrying a lot of the grit and determination that Peru do. Quite frankly after facing Argentina's strikers for 120 minutes lining up against Peru should be a walk in the park defensively. They just don't have that much quality going forward. Vargas is a good player but from my experience he can't be relied upon to deliver. I see this match as two defensively sound and tough teams, but only one of them has a credible attack. Forlan hasn't exactly popped, but he's still a sick player to have while Suarez will always cause problems for any D. Both sides have grown since their 1-1 earlier in the tournament but I like Uruguay at what I consider a good enough price. Uruguay win - 1.80 - 6 points - Bet365 I'll also have a fun, slight cover bet of Uruguay on pens when it gets put up on Bet365. EDIT - The line is up - Uruguay on penalties - 12.00 - 0.5 points - Bet365

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icecreamdreams

icecreamdreams

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July Agree totally with the above. Peru are more solid and dependable but no real classy players like Uruguay have. Surely forlan cavani or Suarez will step up and score at least one and uruguays defence is solid most of the time tho their suspension to the mad dog midfielder may mean few changes around I'm tempted to just go big on Uruguay to qualify as this tournament has done me few times with draws then selections winning on pens etc It's 1.45ish on betfair to qualify which I do like :)

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Alexc

Alexc

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

Coupled with it being a semi-final I automatically think of under 2.5 yet again. But at 1.47 (Bet365) I just wont even consider it.
Yeah, it is a bit of a p*ss take. Just wonder if there becomes a bit of value on over 1.5 @ 1.50. This line is usually a lot lower, and all but the Mexico game has gone under two goals for Uruguay, and that really shouldn't of, with Uruguay hitting the woodwork twice, and missing a hatful of chances. Won't be taking it myself, but may be food for thought for somebody else.
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AGurv

AGurv

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July International Soccer 2011 Overall 12W-8L-5P +1.72 units (60.00%) Uruguay -110 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes GL All :cheers: Will be back with reasoning later, just wanted to grab that line now

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TheImp

TheImp

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

Yeah, it is a bit of a p*ss take. Just wonder if there becomes a bit of value on over 1.5 @ 1.50. This line is usually a lot lower, and all but the Mexico game has gone under two goals for Uruguay, and that really shouldn't of, with Uruguay hitting the woodwork twice, and missing a hatful of chances. Won't be taking it myself, but may be food for thought for somebody else.
It's worth pointing out. In any other situation involving Uruguay and any other opponent I would be lapping up odds of 1.50 for over 1.5 goals but this Copa America has been unpredictable to say the least with all the big guns underperforming and lots of low scoring draws. If this was any other occasion, friendly or even a World Cup game I would have bitten your hand off for 1.50 but on this occasion I think I will agree with you and leave it alone however tempting it may be. I might have a look at it in play depending on how the first 20 minutes or so goes. If it's still 0-0 after 20 minutes but Uruguay are dominating then I'll take it at medium stakes with higher odds of around 2.00.
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Alexc

Alexc

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

Uruguay price looks huge to me. They have the big mo running into this semifinal with better players and the world's best striker Diego Forlan. Seriously considering diving into this one with two wheelbarrows. Peru won't make it easy but give Forlan a chance and you have to think that net will be bulging big time. I'd be very surprised if Uruguay didn't win this by a couple of goals.
Forlan's been poor in the tournament, mate. Missed a hatful of easy chances and has been lucky his team mates have done better in front of goal. Inspite of that, I also think Uruguay will do the business. Can't take 'em on the outright though, as that's really something I only venture in to when it involves the Barcelona's and Chelsea's of this world :lol I also think Peru are not being given the credit they deserve, as they were for me probably the better team against Colombia, and I'm certain will make a game of this. Uruguay draw no bet @ 1.36 (Unibet) For anyone looking to get in to the correct score market for this one, Bet365 refund any games that end 0-0, so ye know. It also applies to half-time/full-time and scorecast bets.
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MillionDollarMan

MillionDollarMan

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July The most likely result here, once again, is a DRAW Uruguay will be without an extremely important player in midfield for them due to a very deserved red card vs Argentina. This is a very important factor. In attack, no Cavani for Uruguay, who will start on the bench today. Uruguay is favorites to win the cup, but they haven't really played great football this Copa America, with a poor display vs Peru, Chile and Mexico. Their victory against Argentina was also more down to grit and determination than anything else. Markarian will obviously play a very defensive game against Uruguay in what will probably be a very tactical match between two very good coaches. Under 2,2.5 goals is a safe bet here. Peru +1 was a great bet, I took this one yesterday and now I see the odds for Peru have dropped incredibly so don't know what its like now. A 0-0 draw is likely, but now bet365 is only offering 7 for it compared to the 9 I got for Peru vs Colombia. Uruguay win by Penalties @ 12 is worth shot. First half is going to be all about getting to know each other, and if neither side makes any big mistakes we will probably see a draw at halftime. :hope

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Alexc

Alexc

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

The most likely result here' date=' once again, is a [b']DRAW Uruguay will be without an extremely important player in midfield for them due to a very deserved red card vs Argentina. This is a very important factor. In attack, no Cavani for Uruguay, who will start on the bench today. Uruguay is favorites to win the cup, but they haven't really played great football this Copa America, with a poor display vs Peru, Chile and Mexico. Their victory against Argentina was also more down to grit and determination than anything else. Markarian will obviously play a very defensive game against Uruguay in what will probably be a very tactical match between two very good coaches. Under 2,2.5 goals is a safe bet here. Peru +1 was a great bet, I took this one yesterday and now I see the odds for Peru have dropped incredibly so don't know what its like now. A 0-0 draw is likely, but now bet365 is only offering 7 for it compared to the 9 I got for Peru vs Colombia. Uruguay win by Penalties @ 12 is worth shot. First half is going to be all about getting to know each other, and if neither side makes any big mistakes we will probably see a draw at halftime. :hope
Sorry, man, so are we to assume all the bold bits are the bet's you've actually taken? Or are these just suggestions?
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pg_yid

pg_yid

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July Under 2.5 is now 1.68 on Betfair. That's a good enough price for me to back. Reasoning is the obvious, semi-final, two organised, disciplined sides, Peru the underdog yet to concede in the tournament, Copa America has been very underish in general so far.

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martin239

martin239

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

Under 2.5 is now 1.68 on Betfair. That's a good enough price for me to back. Reasoning is the obvious' date=' semi-final, two organised, disciplined sides, Peru the underdog yet to concede in the tournament, Copa America has been very underish in general so far.[/quote'] The pitch is a shambles and Uruguay apparently aren't very happy about playing on it. This'll aid the Unders bet I feel, and it might also persuade me to back Peru on a handicap.
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MillionDollarMan

MillionDollarMan

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July Bad night for me here, only won one bet out of 5. With one Push and 3 losses. Thankfully my wins last week will easily cover any loses here. Which is why I pushed it a bit with my bets here. Overall not a bad night, given my two bets won in Brazilian Serie B, but still disappointing. Up until Uruguay's first goal it looked like it would end in a draw. Goalkeeper made a mistake and the game changed though.

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Alexc

Alexc

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

Uruguay draw no bet @ 1.36 (Unibet)
Woop :)
2-0 Uruguay nice and easy :clap The only question was when Uruguay would score' date=' Peru were completely out of their depth as expected really. Moved all my profit over to them winning the competition now at 1.45. Neither Paraguay or Venezuela will have the capability to stop them.[/quote'] Yeah, from what I've seen and read it was an even game, seperated by the Peru keeper losing his mind for a spell in the second period. I still think they can be stopped, as I don't think they're anything special.
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AGurv

AGurv

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July International Soccer 2011 Overall 13W-8L-5P +2.72 units (61.90%) Venezuela +0.5 (-106) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Kind of like the draw here or maybe Venezuela to go into the finals. Especially with how this tournament has gone with a ton of underdogs winning. I'm still pissed at Paraguay for that shit they pulled last week. I also think that beating Chile the other day proves this is a good team, and I think Chile is better then Paraguay.

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Alexc

Alexc

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July Venezuela AH + 1 @ 1.425 (Bet365) These two obviously played recently, with Paraguay leading 3-1 until late. That suggests they were the stronger side, but I actually thought that the Venezuelans were looking the better team, until they allowed three sloppy goals from corner kicks. I believe there'll be a bit more focus from them tomorrow, an even without key midfielder Rincon, I think they'll keep this tight.

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tommy schnurmann

tommy schnurmann

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July since Paraguay appeared on the big stage of world football with the Chilavert team of France 1998 all 4 of their important knockout stage matches in world cups finished with under 1.5 goals. Record in Copa America is a bit different though when they were eliminated in over 2.5 games here in 2004 and 2007 qf's Odd factor here certainly is that these teams had a 3-3 draw encounter last week when Venezuela rested most of their offense with Arango, C.Gonzalez, Lucena and Fedor starting from the bench in a strange match. Maybe they placed some bets on the draw 5 minutes before the final whistle or whatever. Doesnt prevent me to play the under 2.5 here cause of the importance of the match for both teams. the difference to Paraguays encounters with teams like Spain and Brasil in important quarterfinals which ended under 1.5 is obviously that they are favourites tonight and probably will have more ball percentage. I trust in the experience from matches against Japan in 2010 and Ecuador 2011 that they dont know what to do in such a situation and it could turn into a dull and boring event. under 2.5 unfortunately slightly above 1.5 with most bookies but i have difficulties to see a over 2.5 coming here, so i'm confident odds are still playable.

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blackcrow

blackcrow

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July Paraguay - Venezuela over 2.5 @ 2.60 pinnacle Plenty of value on the over, and with their recent results is a good possibility. Paraguay have had successive draws, 3-3 with Venezuala and 2-2 with Brazil, so while they are capable of scoring they also do tend to concede. As well as the draw with Paraguay, Venezuela had a 2-1 win over Chile, so they too can score and concede. In their previous meetings, in WC qualifiers in 2008 and 2009, Paraguay won 2-0 at home and 2-1 away, so their have been goals in when they meet. A huge occasion for both sides with the winner going into the final, so can see both sides playing to win, and liking the look of an open game with goals in it

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dak

dak

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July Paraguay - Venezuela: Draw @ 3.40 (William Hill) 10/10 I believe the chances of a draw are increased given the nature of the match. Both of these teams have a chance at the final and they will be very careful and not risk a great deal hoping to sneak the win by a chance goal. Paraguay is probably the better quality and experienced team but their propensity for the draw result has been evident including the 3-3 result against Venezuela. Venezuela seem to be the big cinderella story in this competition and I wouldn't bet against them although I can't see them going to the final after 90'. We might just get a 0-0 deadlock after 90' and then go to extra time where anything goes. The draw is the percentage bet, I think given the circumstances.

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Copa America > Semi-Finals > 20/21 July

Paraguay - Venezuela: Draw @ 3.40 (William Hill) 10/10 I believe the chances of a draw are increased given the nature of the match. Both of these teams have a chance at the final and they will be very careful and not risk a great deal hoping to sneak the win by a chance goal. Paraguay is probably the better quality and experienced team but their propensity for the draw result has been evident including the 3-3 result against Venezuela. Venezuela seem to be the big cinderella story in this competition and I wouldn't bet against them although I can't see them going to the final after 90'. We might just get a 0-0 deadlock after 90' and then go to extra time where anything goes. The draw is the percentage bet, I think given the circumstances.
Good call (result: 0-0) :ok
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