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Atko

Tennis - 18-24 July

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Here's this week's line-up: Men - Hamburg (500 series) played on clay - Atlanta (250 series) played on outdoor hard Women - Baku (international event) played on indoor hard Good luck :ok

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Not much going in the womens at Baku today for me, but have taken a couple of punts for the Hamburg event and may be back later with some picks for Atlanta. Victor Crivoi vs Guillermo Olaso – over 22.5 games 2.0 at unibet This is simply based on the fact that in the three head to heads between these players (all on clay), two have gone over the 22.5 game line and one was a tight match ending with 22 games. Both players have had plenty of matches on clay this year, with neither really setting the world alight and I feel that as the rankings and head to head records suggest these two are very even in their abilities so a tight game is expected. Jarko Nieminem vs Santiago Giraldo – over 22.5 games 2.0 at unibet This bet is simply based on the fact that a lot of games that these two guys have on clay seem to go overs. I haven’t got exact career stats but in 2011 7 out of the 9 senior level games (so excluding qualifiers) Nieminem has played on clay have gone over the 22.5 game line. Giraldo’s stats aren’t quite as clear cut, but still he has 12/22 games this year going over the 22.5 game line and one game having 22 games exactly. Also worth noting that the only head to head between the two also went overs with 29 games and that game was on clay as well. Worth a try I hope. Small stakes as always from me from the first round of tournaments, always like to get a feel for things at the start of the week. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July 3 matches for me today. Mariya Koryttseva +5 vs Elena Baltacha. 1.99 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Bally to cover five game spread is asking for trouble. Simple as that. Really can not see her doing that. Koryttseva normally plays her best tennis on clay but can do some damage on hard courts as well. This match has overs written all over it and I think 3 sets are inevitable as both love to play long matches. Not having overs here as there's always a chance that Baltacha could tank and lose in straights. On the other hand don't think she can beat Koryttseva by five games. They have played once before and actually it was the Ukranian who came out on top beating Baltacha 6-4 2-6 7-6(3) in Moscow qualies in 2010. Would not be shocked if Bally lost again but +5 games is more sure thing, I guess. Robin Haase > Carlos Berlocq. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Carlos Berlocq might be in better shape but Haase is strongest of the two. He's got better serve and that is huge advantage, even on clay. Haase has only played couple matches since Wimbledon and should be fresh. He has got perfect H2H record against the Argentine player with 2 wins and no defeats. He beat him in a Challenger tournament in Italy in 2006, that was in three sets but more relevant is their last meeting which was this year in Aussie Open. Haase won that one as well and did not drop a set. Haase @ 1.85 is one bet I don't think I can miss out on. Gilles Muller > Alex Bogomolov. 2.10 @ Bwin (6/10) Muller being an underdog in this match makes no sense. He's a beast on serve and even the best returners in the game have trouble getting plays on his serve. For example, Nadal had just two break points in their Wimbledon match. Muller has beaten Bogomolov in both mathces they have contested, both were straight sets wins. Although it was few years ago (6-3, 6-1 in Tokyo 2004 and 7-6(5), 6-2 in Durban 2007) it makes no difference. It will be very hard for Bogomolov to break Mullers. That's the bottom line.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Just the one for me today..... Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov 2pts G. Muller to beat A. Bogomolov - 11/10 with BlueSquare I think the odds are a bit too big on Muller here. Everyone knows about his big serve and that is where he will pick up a lot of cheap points to make it tough for the American to get a look-in when returning. Although he hasn't played in a tournament since Wimbledon he did play in the Davis Cup recently and showed against Ward that he is in good form as he came through that with no problems whatsoever. He blew the Brit off court and there is a real possibility that the same could happen in this match. Bogomolov has had some good results recently but over the course of this year he has struggled against players with big serves as he isn't the greatest returner. The fact Muller gave Nadal problems won't give the American much confidence of being able to get many break points. Muller leads the head-to-head 2-0 and i see no reason as to why he won't make that a hat-trick of wins on a surface that will favour his strengths.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Will take an outright too for the Atlanta tournament..... Atlanta Outrights 1.5/5pts Mardy Fish to win - 11/4 with Bet365 This price is bit bigger than i would have had it so have no problems taking it. Fish was beaten in both Davis Cup matches recently but those defeats don't bother me in the slightest. Ferrer and Lopez played very well and so too did the American and in this i can't see anyone causing him as many problems as those 2 did. His route to the final isn't too difficult as he will be coming up against players a couple of levels lower than him in terms of ability. Anyone out of Hewitt, Malisse and Dimitrov may meet him in the semi's but i would have him long odds on to beat any of those and expect him to live up to the expectation. Should he get to the final he will probably meet an in-form John Isner and that will be a tough task. The head-to-head between those 2 is quite close and although i would favour Fish to come through that i reckon the bookies would have Isner odds against so should they meet i could always get on Isner to lock-in a profit. Like i said, this is a bit big in my opinion (2-1 to 9/4 about right) so i am more than happy to get involved with, for an outright, a fairly solid stake.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Haase so incredibly braindead. What's the point of throwing away both sets from a break advantage' date=' I really don't know.[/quote'] I am from the Netherlands and we don't understand his performance lately. Sometimes he plays great, but there are many days, like today, he is totally nothing. Two times he is *1-0 up and still loses big. 1st serve % of 45...

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July So much of Haase's game is underpinned by his serve. If it's not firing - and at 45%, it clearly wasn't - then he'll always struggle, as he still has much to learn in terms of rally construction, etc. He's also had injuries this year, and perhaps isn't over them. Berlocq's stepped up his level this year, so in any case it's not a huge surprise he's picked him off.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July One for tomorrow from me ... imagine that I'll hit more as long as the prices are appealing. Atlanta R1: Yen-Hsun Lu v Matthias Bachinger - Yen-Hsun Lu @ 1.909 with Pinnacle 4pts I'd take Lu all the way down into the 1.70s here. He's the classier, or should I say steadier, of the two players in this one. Lu's the consummate tennis professional. Almost always gives his best and looks to do well in smaller events. He had another decent spell on the grass and should take to the quicker conditions in America. He's a sparrer, there's nothing flashy about his game at all. For that reason, I reckon he can probably edge past Bachinger. The German is playing some nice tennis but at a lower level. Got to the final of Granby last week but didn't have to beat an awful lot to get there. Lu will be an altogether harder test than Antoine Benneteau, Richard Bloomfield or Karol Beck. Bachinger plays quite an open game, he tends to be quite impatient in rallies. I can see Lu frustrating him and drawing out the errors, which should come from the German because he's not a consistent hitter. The H2H is 1-1, with Lu winning on an outdoor hard court and Bachinger on carpet indoors. Bachinger may have recent form in the book, but it's at a level lower to that of Lu. Fancy him to get the job done. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Victor Crivoi vs Guillermo Olaso – over 22.5 games 2.0 at unibet :\ Jarko Nieminem vs Santiago Giraldo – over 22.5 games 2.0 at unibet :\
Not a good start to the week for me, at least both were only small stakes. Don't see much in Atlanta to interest me today and will avoid temptation to try and win money back straight away. Might be back with some picks for Baku later.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July 3 picks for Baku, that's for Tuesday. Aravane Rezai -8.5 vs Kamilla Farhad. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (6/10) On paper this one looks like double bagel. Really. Farhad is a 15year old local player with very little experience, she's played couple mathes on Challenger circuit and has won just one game in 4 sets. That's bloody awful. I know it's Rezai who we're talking here, but it just has to be a demolition in this match. Unders or handicap - whichever you like - should work. I prefer handicap in a case there's an agreement with Rezai for her to lose a set. Things like that can happen, especially with Rezai who has got history of wrong doing. Noppawan Lertcheewakarn +5 vs Ksenia Pervak. 2.01 @ Pinnacle (5/10) There's a good chance that Pervak will throw in a towel in this match. She's had very exhausting week in Austria, playing on clay, getting to semifinals and really playing too much tennis. She was hammered in her last match 6-0, 6-0 and I'd be worried for her today. Lertcheewakarn no world beater but is very good youngster and has great technique like most Asians do. She beat Pervak last year on a hard courts in Malaysia, besides did that in straight sets. Considering that Pervak is playing for the 2nd consecutive week and switching to different surface this might be a very good chance for Lertcheewakarn to win again. Having the safest option though which is +5. Tetyana Arefyeva > Kristina Kucova. 1.76 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Kucova in terrible form, only couple wins in last 10 matches and one of those 8 defeats has been against the player she will be facing today. Arefyeva beat her 7-5, 7-6 a month ago on clay and is in way better shape and has had some decent performances against higher ranked players. Obviously having Arefyeva here.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov 2pts G. Muller to beat A. Bogomolov - 11/10 with BlueSquare
Nice to start with a winner. Good call on Baltacha Psycho :ok

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Excellent picks yesterday Psycho & Mirage Going for a couple of big wins today in Baku Vera Zvonareva vs Nigini Abduraimova - Zvonareva -7.5 games 1.73 at bet365 Like the the Rezai match, this is a total mis match between the world number 3 and the world number 487. Zvonareva is strong on the hard courts, and usually starts well in competitions on it. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Valeria Solovieva - Pavlyuchenkova -7 games 1.91 at bet365 Pretty much the same reasoning as above. Pavlychenkova has played well on the hard courts this season and I can see that continuing at Baku. As with Zvonareva she has a good enough record in opening round matches, usually coming through them with no major hiccups that i'm happy to back here at a bigger handicap. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Lesia Tsurenko vs Kateryna Bondarenko - Kateryna Bondarenko -4.5 games at 1.72 Bet365 Kateryna played a great turnament last week in Bad Gastein. She arrived in the final when she lost only to Martinez Sanchez. In all games to the final she has covered the handicap with convincing wins. I expect she will keep a good form and pass the first round with an easy win.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Psycho continues to keep bludgeoning the WTA, which is good to see. I'm on a couple of bets today, mostly small though. Might come back with some Atlanta banter later. Hamburg R2: Alexandr Dolgopolov v Jarkko Nieminen - Jarkko Nieminen +2 games AH @ 1.87 with Pinnacle 3pts This line is starting to come in. I can see why. Nieminen's a streaky player and got a good win over Giraldo yesterday. Clay's not his best surface but he can perform on it. It's more about his opponent though. Dolgopolov's been rancid for a few months now, including the clay. Talented laddie but is bereft of real form. Lost to Nieminen last year on the red brick and has a generally poor record against lefties. Could be tight and that's why I'm on the plus rather than the outright. Nieminen's got a good chance in this one. Hamburg R1: Andrey Golubev v Philipp Kohlschreiber - Andrey Golubev +4.5 games @ 2.00 with 188bet 2pts Take me to see the psychiatrist because I'm back with the man who hasn't won since time began. He's 0-12 on clay this year. Not what you really want to hear but this is a big line. Kohlschreiber is probably the one you want to play when you can't win an argument with yourself, let alone a match. He's so inconsistent. Drifts in and out of matches and will give the Kazakh chances. Golubev won this event last year so surely he'll want to do well here. They played in Madrid a few months ago and Golubev almost took it, losing in three tighties. Worth a go on a big line at nice odds. Hamburg R2: Julian Reister v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - Julian Reister +3 games AH @ 1.98 with Pinnacle 2pts This smells of a wee shock. I don't like Garcia-Lopez much at the moment. Total mental midget right now. Capitualted against Beck at SW19 and was pretty meek against Kubot last week in Stuttgart. Clay's not actually his best surface and I think a match against local lad Reister is a tough one. He came past Istomin in straights yesterday and is a competent player at this level. Garcia-Lopez is prone to a wee implosion and Reister will fight tooth and nail to take this. Worth a three-game start, despite the fact that in 2006 Garcia-Lopez won 7-6 6-2. Reister has improved since then. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Lesia Tsurenko vs Kateryna Bondarenko - Kateryna Bondarenko -4.5 games at 1.72 Bet365 Kateryna played a great turnament last week in Bad Gastein. She arrived in the final when she lost only to Martinez Sanchez. In all games to the final she has covered the handicap with convincing wins. I expect she will keep a good form and pass the first round with an easy win.
:clap well done

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July As suggested, some Atlanta patter. Just one bet though. Atlanta R1: Igor Kunitsyn v Marinko Matosevic - Marinko Matosevic +2.5 games @ 1.98 with 188bet 3pts This could be a tricky affair for Kunitsyn. He's not franked his grass form with a nasty defeat to Wang and then a QF loss in Granby. Decent enough player but will have to work for a win over qualifier Matosevic. The Aussies have hopes for him. He's a late bloomer but has made good headway of late. Qualified for SW19, took a set off Chela and has a game that works on a quick surface. Big serve and heavy groundies. Kunitsyn's not wholly reliable, and does cough up chances on serve. Matosevic also beat him in three sets this year in Delray Beach. An attractive enough plus for me. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Challenger picks: Van der Merwe (vs Ghedin) X Pospisil (vs Renavand) @ 1.75 (nordicbet) - stake 7.5/10 Suppose Merwe came last week in South America because there are couple of hard challengers in a row with pretty low quality opponents. He reached semifinals last week on clay, and his game should work more on hard surface. Also has to defend decent sum of points in next couple of weeks, so a good result here would take off some pressure. Ghedin ain't a great player and will struggle returning Merwe's serve. Pospisil should be a class above Renavand. Only question is allegedly his sprained ankle during last weeks match against Stakhovsky. But he should do this fairly easily. Renavand struggled during qualies match, played for 2 and half hours against low ranked Panfil, and somehow prevailed in tiebreak of third set. If Pospisil is on Renavand should cause no trouble to him. Kubot (vs Capkovic) u19.5 @ 1.83 (bet365) - stake 3/10 Kubot could be really tired after last week in Stuttgart, but here he received a WC, his homeland, he should pull off some decent performances. A break per set should be manageable. GL!

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Challenger picks: Van der Merwe (vs Ghedin) X Pospisil (vs Renavand) @ 1.75 (nordicbet) - stake 7.5/10 Suppose Merwe came last week in South America because there are couple of hard challengers in a row with pretty low quality opponents. He reached semifinals last week on clay, and his game should work more on hard surface. Also has to defend decent sum of points in next couple of weeks, so a good result here would take off some pressure. Ghedin ain't a great player and will struggle returning Merwe's serve. Pospisil should be a class above Renavand. Only question is allegedly his sprained ankle during last weeks match against Stakhovsky. But he should do this fairly easily. Renavand struggled during qualies match, played for 2 and half hours against low ranked Panfil, and somehow prevailed in tiebreak of third set. If Pospisil is on Renavand should cause no trouble to him. Kubot (vs Capkovic) u19.5 @ 1.83 (bet365) - stake 3/10 Kubot could be really tired after last week in Stuttgart, but here he received a WC, his homeland, he should pull off some decent performances. A break per set should be manageable. GL!
Looking at the Lexington Challenger tournament, is it just me or have the bookies got it horribly wrong in the match up between Fritz Woolmarans and Grigelis laurynas. The south african hasnt won a match on the hard stuff since november last year and comes up against the 20 year old Lithuanian who just won the Aptos final beating players like Igor and matthew Ebden. the kid has nerves and it was his first final. odds of 2.2 are too high to turn down, lets just hope he is still motivated.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Anyone else notice the Germans seem to be very strong on home soil? Or whatever surface they playing. Know beck n petchner lost but generally they do well last few times I've looked in. Few underdogs won and are winning at the mo. Going to join in on reister to see if it can carry on Kamke was massive odds to beat chela so hopefully pulls through aswell Reister at 17/10 will do me :)

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Looking at the Lexington Challenger tournament, is it just me or have the bookies got it horribly wrong in the match up between Fritz Woolmarans and Grigelis laurynas. The south african hasnt won a match on the hard stuff since november last year and comes up against the 20 year old Lithuanian who just won the Aptos final beating players like Igor and matthew Ebden. the kid has nerves and it was his first final. odds of 2.2 are too high to turn down, lets just hope he is still motivated.
Seems like Grigelis pulled out. Jordan Cox took his place as a lucky loser. Although match like Wolvermans- Grigelis, both pretty much all serve players, is always 50-50 to me, so value was on Grigelis.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July Yen-Hsun Lu vs Matthias Bachinger 2/5pts Over 22.5 games - 11/10 with Pinnacle This line is about right in my opinion but the price is a bit too big. Would have been 10/11 for both over and under if i was pricing it up. It has everything to suggest it could go either way in a tight contest. Lu has proven himself to be capable of challenging the top 20 players over the last couple of years so in theory should come through this contest if at his best. However, he is rarely consistent enough for long periods and has gone out in the first round of tournaments against players of similar ability to Bachinger enough to suggest that he won't come through this tie with ease. Bachinger has been in good form of late and although that doesn't mean he will beat an in-form Lu, it does mean he has enough in his game to challenge him. They have only played twice and that was a while ago at challenger level when they won a match each. It should be a close contest this so at odds against i am happy to go with the overs and hope i am right.

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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July

Anyone else notice the Germans seem to be very strong on home soil? Or whatever surface they playing. Know beck n petchner lost but generally they do well last few times I've looked in. Few underdogs won and are winning at the mo. Going to join in on reister to see if it can carry on Kamke was massive odds to beat chela so hopefully pulls through aswell Reister at 17/10 will do me :)
I'm staying away from Hamburg this week unless something really good comes up (like Simon v Stakhovsky (disgusted that missed it). This tournament is being sponsored by bet-at-home which is all you really need to know. Lots of strange matches being played and not only this year but it was the case last year as well. The best option is to stay away or bet on underdogs. This event is on my blacklist alongside Zagreb indoors which is played in February. Haase proved the point the other day. If you're staying away, then do so.

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