Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

[dan325]

All odds available at http://www.odds-comparison.co.uk/

[dan325]

Re: Serie A Ante Post 11/12 My outside bet for the year will be Lazio to win the league. It's a massive ask considering they finished 5th last season but at odds of 100/1 I think they are over priced. They have just signed Miroslav Klose and have a couple of young strikers that I think could come good.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Interesting pick Dan. 100/1 is big. There is going to be so much chopping and changing in Italy during July so I am not going to offer any thoughts yet. Also Title winner is the only market available which I am not too interested in.

[-Blackadder-]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Milan imo are correctly favourites, good throughout the side with maybe a slightly subpar midfield but no other major flaws. As I'm not a real expert on Serie A, could anyone please tell me how good a coach Gasperini is? Inter are the only real challengers I can see so he'll be vital in deciding the winner here. Inter have at least as good a squad as Milan so with the right guidance they could do it. Juve, Napoli, Roma, Lazio are still too far behind I think so I'll discount them.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season I would agree that the title is between those two. Right now I'd go with Milan but there will be changes in both sides so it is worth waiting. My opinion of Gasperini going to Inter is...'meh'. He is a very knowledgeable coach and has gained high praise from JM while he was at Inter. However he has never had any top club experience. His decision on tactics and the transfer campaign will be definitive. He loves 3-4-3 and if he decides to stick with that and get rid of Sneijder a top class wing striker must arrive, and preferably a sick CM too, otherwise I think they'll fall short.

[AHughes]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Thoughts on Juventus ? I know they have'nt been the team they were for years now but I think the tide could be turning. They have finally sorted the full back problem with Stefan Lichster and Reto Ziegler coming in. Also, Pirlo has come in from AC Milan to add some much needed creativity.

[S. S. C. Napoli]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Last year A.C. Milan didn't win anything... It was just Inter Milan which had problems in the first part of the season. Otherwise they would have win the Scudetto. Gasperini is really a Super coach. I really liked him at Genoa. Just a small piece of information. He trained the Young Team of Juventus from 1994 to 2003. Anyways let's just relax and wait. There will still be many transfers in the big teams.

[S. S. C. Napoli]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

Thoughts on Juventus ? I know they have'nt been the team they were for years now but I think the tide could be turning. They have finally sorted the full back problem with Stefan Lichster and Reto Ziegler coming in. Also' date=' Pirlo has come in from AC Milan to add some much needed creativity.[/quote'] Juventus is just rubbish mate. In order to win again the Scudetto, they need management representatives that they don't have anymore. Imho they are underpriced, lol.

[Halav]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Lazio to win Serie A looks a joke :rollin another tight match between AC Milan and Inter IMAO Juventus sure improve from last season but new coach and many new players (nothing big player at the moment) leaves many doubts...work in progress for the next years....IMO with Roma, Lazio, Napoli, Udinese and maybe Fiorentina & Genoa are contender for the band 3rd-6th position or worse ;)

[Rick121212]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Lazio are @ 8.00 to finish in the Top 4 dan325. You might see that as a safer bet.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season One thing to consider with 'top 4' bets this season is that only the top 3 gain CL football. 4th place in itself is no longer of absolute importance. It is likely that whoever finishes 4th is only going to be the team that came closest in the scrap for 3rd but still fell short. Given Italian sides approach to EL football, if 3rd is no longer realistic then 4th becomes virtually the same as 5th,6th etc. It perhaps doesn't change ones thinking that much, but it is still something to consider.

[dan325]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

Lazio are @ 8.00 to finish in the Top 4 dan325. You might see that as a safer bet.

Cheers Rick. I have had a couple of quid to win just cos it represents value to me.

[MARTINLAURSEN]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season im certainly no expert in italian football but looking at the main contenders, juventus have been linked with the big names of europe. Have AC or Inter got the money to spend big? I know pirlo left AC to go Juve, did he leave because he thinks the tide is turning? Was it a move for ££? Inter didnt win the title because they had Rafa, pretty much gifted AC the league last year. I dont no anything regarding the new coach either. Not a league I no inside out, but just by going on spending power, it seems Juventus have the power?

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Pirlo left because Milan no longer wanted him and Juventus were his best offer. Both Milan and Inter have money to spend but they wont be going crazy with signings. For Milan it will be quality over quantity. They need a box-to-box midfielder of top quality and an ACM (if possible). That's all. Inter could see more change depending on whether they lose players. If they keep Eto'o and Sneijder then I don't expect that many signings. It's a bit harder than it was in the past to get Moratti to splash the cash anyway. Regarding Juventus it is getting very boring reading all the stories about Aguero. If you really want him - just spend the 45 mill and seal it. It would be a marquee signing but I think it would be more beneficial to bring in a sick winger, good CM, and a good LB + CB. With 45 million they could probably make those signings as opposed to just Aguero. Still early but Milan are the only side who come into the Summer with any stability. That is why, for me, they are the favourites regardless of what other teams do. Even so, still plenty of time left to wait.

[Halav]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Milan will not make large purchases this season.....IMO

July 11 2011 Rome – Italian champions AC Milan have admitted that they concerned about their financial future after club president Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister, was ordered to pay over half a billion euros in connection with a bribery case. A court on Saturday decreed that Berlusconi's Fininvest company, which owns AC Milan, should pay rival media group CIR 560million euros after it bribed a judge to approve the takeover of publishing group Mondadori in 1990. “This is something that greatly affects AC Milan,” club vice-president Adriano Galliani said in the Italian press on Monday. “This is serious, a crazy sum. Figures of this kind for damages? We have never seen this before in Europe.” Galliano did not go into details about the impact the fine would make on the club, which closed the last fiscal year with a deficit of about 60million euros, but it is likely to affect their summer recruitment policy. “Milan is still in the heart of the president, he loves his baby,” said Galliani. “He bought the club from a bankruptcy tribunal (in 1986) and made it the most successful club in the world. I'm sure he will make every effort to keep it where it is now.” Source

:eyes :eyes :eyes

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season I think Milan can kiss goodbye to Ganso/Hamsik/Cesc. I do think that they'll get the type of midfielder that they want (ball-playing box-to-box type). 12 or so million could get them a handy player late in the window. If possible Cassano will probably be swapped with a willing club. Napoli have strengthened importantly with Inler joining. That will prove to be a great signing. I don't know why they spent 10 million on Britos when they could have bought Silvestre for less. I'd like to see them scoop a sub for Cavani and ideally another CB (doubtful) and they'll be set to go I think. I'm almost certain I'll lay Juventus if they remain near their current prices (top 3 - 1.82)//(top 4 - 1.4). Don't think they'll get Kun and personally I think Rossi will not take them to the same level. Rumours state 25 mill + Melo which would be very bad for Juve - so is probably very possible under Marotta. In sum I'd back the current Napoli over them and also Roma if they continue to improve the squad. It will be interesting to see what Udinese do in the market. Lost Inler and Zapata. Sanchez will go somewhere. Asamoah may well still leave. That would be the heart, lungs and liver and kidneys of their side and without good purchases they'd be a blinding lay for top 4 at their current price (4.00) - if you could be bothered.

[bozz]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Anyone think Napoli can win at $51 ? the odds are ridiculious imo I remb last season they were only 2 points behind Milan with a handful of games left....

[rizzovich]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

Lazio to win Serie A looks a joke :rollin another tight match between AC Milan and Inter IMAO Juventus sure improve from last season but new coach and many new players (nothing big player at the moment) leaves many doubts...work in progress for the next years....IMO with Roma, Lazio, Napoli, Udinese and maybe Fiorentina & Genoa are contender for the band 3rd-6th position or worse ;)

You can knock off Udinese, Fiorentina and Genoa from European postions next year. I can bet my life on it. Udinese will be a total flop compared to last year, having lost players like Sanchez, Inler and Zapata. They simply stand no chance, especially due to the fact that there have been no signs of positive re investment at the Friuli camp yet. I expect them to finish in the bottom half of the table come the end of 2011-12. especially if they qualify for the europa league, they wont have enough quality to be anything close to competitive on both fronts. Fiorentina have a shit coach. (i give him till mid season in charge, then sacked) They lost 2 of their symbols of recent years, Frey and Mutu, also santana who used to be a v good sub for them. Probably selling Gilardino also. Fans protesting and everything. Genoa will simply have too many new faces to get off to a good start. And with Criscito, Paloschi, Rafinha, Floro Flores, Destro, Acquafresca, Konko and Milanetto no longer there, their chances of a decent finish are slim, although they are working on the transfer market, but it is already august and not much has been done yet, only Frey and constant are decent signings so far. IMO This year will have a more familiar look at the top Half of the table, and i think it will look something Like this: 1. AC Milan - Strengthened in the right places, Taiwo and Mexes for FREE! El Sharaawi and Paloschi both v young and talented. And are reportedly looking to sign a Major AMC (attacking midfield center) Which they are in desperate need of. I only tip them for glory because i believe that Inter are going to under perform again this season as they made the wrong choice of manager with Gasperini. You simply cannot go from Jose Mou, to retard Rafa Benitez then to Unsuccessful Milan Coach Leonardo (although he didnt do a bad job motivating his players) to relatively unkown at this level Gasperini, who had a successful spell for Genoa standards a few years ago. Moratti seems to not be making the right decisions since Mou left and the won everything Last year. I predict Inter to go through a transitional stage for a couple of seasons now. 2. Juventus - This year Juve have done much better than last in the ttransfer market by signing notably Pirlo, Liechsteiner, Ziegler, Vucinic and mostly VIDAL who will be a hit imo. Lets not forget that although Milan and Inter have more quality, Juve are not competing in Europe and will always be well rested on the weekends. They are also looking to sign either Vargas or someone of that nature for the left wing. Also they will play in their Brand new stadium if i'm not mistaken, which is a milestone for any Italian club. 3. Inter - IMO wrong manager, ageing players. Sneijder might be on his way out. Rannochia, Etoo and Samuel are super to me, but unless they sign some serious players in this month of august i think they will dissapoint big time again. The quality is there but too many things are against them to achieve what is expected. 4/5/6 Roma - New Ownership, New Coach, New Style, and some fresh faces. I expect Bojan to shine in the Serie A under the guidance of Luiz Enrique. They will focus more on league than Europa League. 4/5/6 Lazio - Strengthened well up front with Klose and Cisse who are both big physical strikers with a special eye for goal, especially Klose with Hernanes behind them i think they could have another good season. 4/5/6 Napoli - Amazing forward players (Hamsik, Lavezzi & Cavani) but lack same quality in defense. Last year was like a fairy tale for Napoli and they will struggle big time to keep up with the pace of champions league football and serie A. They don't have enough quality depth to finish top 3 again, unfortunately. I say unfortunately because i have a soft spot for them and would like to see them succeed. These top 6 predictions i think are superior to the rest of the field. Look out for Bologna to have a good season, and i hope to make some good money at the right times with them this season. Acquafresca and Di Vaio should do really well together. Ramirez and Diamanti add Quality to the midfield.... They will for sure secure a mid table position or better. I also feel that Fiorentina, Udinese, and palermo will seriously disappoint this season. And i'll go out on a limb here and predict Relegation for one of them! a long shot i know, atleast serious relegation worries, because Atalanta if they get 7 points deducted will most certainly be relegated, so that leaves only 2 relegation spots. Anyways. Good luck for this season. I cant wait for it to kick off.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season I'll be trying to knock up a preview of sorts closer to the start of the season that will simply explain how I feel about each side this year. However I was having a peak around Unibet and saw that they had a lot of ante-post markets up already - some of which are very interesting. Here are the first two bets I'll be taking. First manager to be sacked: S Pioli (Palermo) - 6.50 - 7 points As of right now this side is significantly weaker than they were last season. Pastore is gone and I can't imagine they will be able to bring anyone in that comes close to what he added. They are already out of EL after losing to Thun on away goals. As a squad of players they are weak mentally. Can't defend for shit and I don't imagine Pioli's 3-4-2-1 helping in that respect. There is dough in the account but they aren't capable of going out and scooping a top class player to boost the squad. They have a so so squad that I could see struggling in all honesty. Couple that squad with their chairman and Pioli should be worried. Zamparini is a wild man and goes through managers like nobody else. He has zero tolerance and high expectations. Last season he sacked Delio Rossi, hired Sersi Cosmi and then re-hired Delio Rossi a month later. Delio Rossi has now gone again and I think Pioli is a good shout to be the first to get sacked this season. Quite high stakes for such a speculative market but that's how mental Zampa is! Sinisia Mihajlovic - 15.00 - 2 points This is more of a value punt. Fiorentina are shipping players out the door at a worrying rate. Frey, Santana and Mutu have left. Montolivo is sure to leave at some point. Gila and Vargas are heavily linked with moves, along with Cerci. There is the feeling of a sinking ship surrounding the club. Fans have already clashed with Miha in pre-season. On the back of a poor season previously the heat will be on right away. They wont be able to bring in world beaters so their season seemingly hangs on Jovetic. He is a really sick player but having missed all of last season there will be doubts over him. I think he will deliver but one player dragging a club along is not an ideal situation anyway. Even if Gila and Vargas staying I'd see them as a mid-table club (top 8 max) which just may not do for another season. If they leave then they could really struggle. A decent squad right now, but given that it could get worse and the fans are already on his back I think Miha is a value shout.

[rizzovich]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Looking on Unibet's site. Finishing position h2h Lazio vs Palermo. Lazio looks like value at 1.72. Over under finishing points looks interesting as well. Ill take a look at that tomorrow as its late...

[Halav]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Atalanta 6 penalty points

[BelgianPunter]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

Atalanta 6 penalty points

So Lecce before Atalanta @2.04 is a good price? Betfair

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

So Lecce before Atalanta @2.04 is a good price? Betfair

If Atalanta do face starting on -6 points then Lecce to finish higher at that price is certainly appealing. In a straight match-up it may even hold some value. Atalanta are appealing the decision though and the way things run in Italy I have no idea how successful that will be. I think there are some slightly safer match ups to get your teeth into. As pointed out earlier in the thread Lazio to finish above Palermo at 1.72 looks very decent. Bovo is close to Fiorentina too so Palermo may lose their best CB. Meanwhile Lazio have had a decent mercato and look like a stable club this season.

[artist]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

Looking on Unibet's site. Finishing position h2h Lazio vs Palermo. Lazio looks like value at 1.72. Over under finishing points looks interesting as well. Ill take a look at that tomorrow as its late...

no doubt about that :)

[rizzovich]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season For me Siena vs Fiorentina is a decent bet. 5/10 PK @2.18 Pinnacle. It will be Siena's first game of the season in Serie A after a year in B, in front of their home fans, in a hot tuscany derby. Gilardino is probably on his way out. Fiorentina not going through the best of moments, although its still early and is a bit of a gamble. Siena have the upper hand imo as they come from a super season in the serie B and have made good acquisitions for their standards such as Destro, Mannini and D'agostino (from Fiorentina). Main factors that make me take this bet. Fiorentina's terrible away form last season. Siena playing in front of packed home stadium. dont like mihailovic, dont like fiorentina's off season! Good Luck

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season LE is on thin ice already at Roma. Embarrassingly out in the EL qualifiers and playing with fire regarding the Totti situation. He is Roma and I don't know who LE thinks he is coming in and trying to prove a point against Totti. He is still our best player and needs to play. Donadoni surprisingly getting sacked a little while ago flops my first manager to be sacked bets. I'm not sure if any bookies have a 'next' manager to be sacked market open but Pioli would still be tempting - as would LE perhaps.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season I am sizing up two/three serious bets for the coming season. I am holding fire until the window shuts - though it would take a lot to change my mind considerably. This is a speculative bet but one that I feel is worth a punt. Palermo to be relegated - 25.00 - Unibet I do think that there is a real chance Palermo will go into turmoil this season. I've said enough about their owner in the past but he really is mental. For the last few seasons they have been the same kind of team - nice to watch going forward but terrible at defending. This season appears to be no different. Mentally they are one of the worst teams that come to mind. In the past they've had their attacking flair to bail them out but I don't fancy it being as potent this time round. Thus far Pioli has not even touched on working out their defensive errors as seen in the recent friendly against Napoli. They've lost Cassani, Bovo, Sirigu and Pastore - all important players. Miccoli (IMO) is still their best attacker but he doesn't seem to be favoured any could still leave. Bovo is replaced by Silvestre who was impressive last season but he'll have his work cut out. I just don't back Illicic, Zahavi and Hernandez to get the job done half as much as Pastore, Illicic and Miccoli did last season. Goals could well be at more of a premium this year. Given the likelihood of a managerial change at some point the uncertainty only grows. In short, Palermo will have a rollercoaster season as usual, but I think it will have more lows than highs. I'd still be surprised to see them go down but I do think they'll be down there at some point. 2 points at the above price.

[mdinadude333]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

I'll be trying to knock up a preview of sorts closer to the start of the season that will simply explain how I feel about each side this year. However I was having a peak around Unibet and saw that they had a lot of ante-post markets up already - some of which are very interesting. Here are the first two bets I'll be taking. First manager to be sacked: S Pioli (Palermo) - 6.50 - 7 points As of right now this side is significantly weaker than they were last season. Pastore is gone and I can't imagine they will be able to bring anyone in that comes close to what he added. They are already out of EL after losing to Thun on away goals. As a squad of players they are weak mentally. Can't defend for shit and I don't imagine Pioli's 3-4-2-1 helping in that respect. There is dough in the account but they aren't capable of going out and scooping a top class player to boost the squad. They have a so so squad that I could see struggling in all honesty. Couple that squad with their chairman and Pioli should be worried. Zamparini is a wild man and goes through managers like nobody else. He has zero tolerance and high expectations. Last season he sacked Delio Rossi, hired Sersi Cosmi and then re-hired Delio Rossi a month later. Delio Rossi has now gone again and I think Pioli is a good shout to be the first to get sacked this season. Quite high stakes for such a speculative market but that's how mental Zampa is!

Genius mate... thanks for the tip! Super. Serie A hasn't even started and you made money

[Halav]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season

Genius mate... thanks for the tip! Super. Serie A hasn't even started and you made money

First manager to be sacked: Donadoni (Cagliari) :eyes

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A > Ante-post 2011/12 Season Unfortunately Donadoni's ridiculous sacking scuppered my Pioli bet. There was a window in which you could snap him up as 'next' manager to be sacked at the same price. I didn't go back in though.