Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

(Apologies for not coming up with a good thread name...) First of all, thanks for giving me the opportunity to do this - I hope it goes as well I hope it does! Basically I've been following racing for about 4 years now but only been betting on it for a couple of years. I feel I'm always capable of getting things right, but too often discipline lets me down and that's one (amongst many) that I've learnt from on here. I'm very thankful that Monte sent me a link :rollin Even if my results don't look brilliant on paper so far, since the start of the flat season, I've improved tenfold and I'm confident that from now on I'll start to make some half-decent profit. Can't proclaim to be anywhere near the best tipster, or most knowledgeable on here, but I like to think I know a little bit considering my experience probably is nothing compared to most. Anyway - essentially I think this thread gives me the chance not to be lazy with my posts. Too often I probably feel the need to post selections for the sake of it - or because I've entered them in competitions etc. I try to put some effort into my posts if I have the time. I use a staking system that ranges from 1-5pts and quite often my selections are double-figure prices. That's likely to change a little bit now - but we'll see how it goes. I do like jumps racing a lot, but will swerve the summer jumping here and will focus on the flat. I do quite like the all-weather (shoot me). I will typically have something each day but that will depend on my fancies - I won't be posting for the sake of it. My post times will vary a little bit from the night before/stupid hours (Hello James!) or before racing on the day. Sorry for waffling on, but with a bit of luck, things will go alright in here! Thanks and first bet(s) to follow shortly, Starting Bank: 100pts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.25 Windsor - 1pt e/w My Ruby @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Jim Best's filly sneaks into this 0-70 handicap off a mark of 69 and I think she's up to winning it. She found things happening all too quickly at Windsor on her debut over 5f when midfield but beaten 15l by the smart Rimth. There were plenty of good horses in the race, though. Swiss Dream, Byrony, Fifth Commandment, The Thrill Is Gone for example. On that basis, it wasn't a bad run. She returned over a more suitable 7f at Chester but didn't have the best of draws and was doing her best work at the finish. Ended up 6th of 12 but the front three have all run well since. In order to get a handicap mark, My Ruby went to Goodwood over 7f but had little chance once she lost her place and dropped to the rear. She did pick back up again to be only beaten 4l however, suggesting handicaps and a mile would suit her down to the ground. That's exactly what she gets today. That maiden doesn't look too bad and suggests she's handicapped fairly based on the current ratings of those around her at Goodwood. It's not exactly a great handicap today with plenty of exposed horses in the line-up. I think My Ruby is definitely up to winning a race like this, and now with fitness definitely on her side, and a step up in trip, it's hard to see her running a bad race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.25 Windsor - 3pts win Significant Move @ 2/1 (Hills) This is an unusually short price for me, but I'm not afraid to back them if I think they'll win! This horse, trained by Stuart Kittow, caught the eye massively last time out at Sandown when Liam Keniry attempted to find a passage up the far rail, but got badly hampered, and ended up losing all chance, did find an out and ran on strongly, but it was too late. He finished a 2l 6th of 16 behind Qaraaba. He's clearly capable of scoring off this mark. The son of Motivator steps up 2f today to a mile-and-a-half which should suit this horse on both evidence on the track, and pedigree. Whilst his dam was unraced, she had quite strong stamina influences, and is the sister to two middle-distance performers. In his early days, Significant Move took 4 races to register a win, despite going very close in 3 mile maidens behind some useful animals. The winners of those races were Colonel Carter, Breakheart, and Call To Reason. Significant Move just shaped as if he lacked the speed of some over that trip, so it was no surprise to see him get off the mark when stepped up to 1m2f on his next start. It's likely he needed the run on his handicap debut when reappearing at Newbury in April. It was a competitive race, however, which saw him finish 9th of 15 behind Modun. He was hampered before staying on also at Newmarket, but wasn't able to get near the winner. He finished 7l behind Vita Nova (he was 6l clear) and that horse was only narrowly deprived in a listed event recently (pair clear). Had he not been hampered, he probably would have finished 2nd that day. Always shaped as if needing a trip, and this is his first attempt over this distance. He should appreciate it, and I think he'll take quite a lot of stopping. I don't think there's as much depth to the race today, and the ground being a little slower may suit also. Neil Callan is riding excellently at the moment and if everything goes to plan, he can have another winner here.

[bowles10]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Good luck with the thread :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Great start. I have no idea what happened.

[Spooner]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Good luck with this. Have sorted out the double post for you. :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Good luck mate :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread No idea what went wrong with My Ruby. Was forced wide round a bend but never picked up and was barely touched in the end by Doe. Significant Move possibly just didn't get home. 3rd but really disappointed he didn't win. -5pts for the day. Gutted with the start but it's never going to be an overnight success.

[jayalexander]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread It's a PL tradition to have a shite first day :rollin Better luck tomorrow!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Good luck with this Rupert - your other posts all point to this thread showing a profit long term :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Thanks everyone. Had a look at the afternoon cards last night whilst I had a chance but found nothing that really interested me. I expect a selection or two tonight.

[cc75]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Good luck with this BFR - sure you will do great mate :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.40 Windsor - 2pts win Royal Red @ 5/2 (Bet365) - BOG Amis Reunis is possibly a worthy favourite in the race for the formidable Richard Hannon team at Windsor, but I'm quite happy to take her on with Ralph Beckett's filly by Holy Roman Emperor. Royal Red was sent off at 11/2 on her debut at Leicester in a race which ended in quite a blanket finish. Despite that often indicating the race might not have been very good, it's actually worked out quite nicely. The winner, Nagham, may not have really franked the form, but he did finish 2 lengths behind useful yardstick Ponty Acclaim on his next start. My Solitaire won next time out, Caledonia Lady ran a blinder to be a close 3rd in the Queen Mary, and several other horses have run okay since. Royal Red might have been 8th that day but was only 3 1/4l behind the winner and shaped as if improvement was likely. Went to Warwick last time out, and just looked a little green still, and unbalanced a couple of times, but made promising ground from the rear up the rail - possibly not the ideal place to be - and finished 4th to Dam Beautiful. Kevin Ryan's filly ran creditably in a Group 3 over in Ireland recently when only beaten 2 1/4l, and the 2nd horse looks quite smart too. Solid yardstick, Dream Whisperer, was comfortably beaten in 8th which suggests that this race wasn't too bad. She should have come on once more for the run, and in a race which looks to lack depth, I think she'll take a lot of beating. The Beckett yard are going quite nicely at the minute and I think Jim Crowley, who has a profitably record at Windsor, can get the most out of this filly. Whilst the formbook does state that Amis Reunis chased home a useful type last time out, she was beaten comfortably that day, and I'm not sure what else was in the line-up. I think the winner is useful but the rest aren't really up to much. I think the Hannon factor may have had its effect on her price, which is shortening to an underpriced 5/4 in my eyes, and I think I'd rather be on my selection even if they were joint favourites.

[Haystacks]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Best of luck with your thread BFR!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.10 Windsor - 1pt win Trend Line @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Trend Line, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam, receives weight from her elders tonight (other than the two other 3yos), and I think she has a massive chance of getting off the mark. She was sent off as a 7/4 favourite on his debut at Lingfield over 7f back in January when disappointing slightly in 5th. She is well bred, though, and expected to appreciate further. She had a break until mid-April when she took on some useful animals in a Newbury maiden. The race has worked out exceptionally well, which leads me to believe she could be well handicapped on her handicap debut tonight. The winner of that race, Imperial Pippin, finished 3l behind the smart Beatrice Aurore and then chased home another useful horse in Rumh. John Gosden's filly is now rated 93. Caraboss smashed a maiden field on her next start to be rated 90, Stella Point got off the mark easily at Doncaster the other day and is rated in the 90s. Creme Anglaise disappointed at Royal Ascot but is still rated 86 after winning (and beating Trend Line again) at the same venue prior. Trend Line was only beaten just over 6l that day so given she runs off an opening mark of 75 today, she could be up to winning it. She ran okay again at Ascot, but probably was more in order to get a feasible mark and she now should be bang on to make a big impact. She was an expensive purchase, and obviously expected to be useful right from the start. Edgewater won't stay in my opinion, Charmeur has shown next to nothing in the country over hurdles, and Royal Etiquette is a longstanding maiden. The others rate as dangers, but May Be Some Time has something to prove after flopping last time, and Sacred Shield didn't comprehensively frank the form of Aldwick Bay's recent win. I'm quite content to take a chance on a filly with scope to progress now in handicaps. It's a shame there's only 7 which go to post, but I'm willing to place a win bet on her.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Thought she had it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.40 Windsor - 1pt e/w Glyn Ceiriog @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Glyn Ceiriog is a big filly trained by George Baker, and has shown sufficient promise to suggest she can run a big race up in trip in a handicap. She ran some good races over 7f/8f in maidens but her career always looked likely to consist of middle-distance races. She had a break of a couple of months before returning at Windsor when well beaten in 5th of 12, but the race has worked out quite nicely. The front two were miles clear - and the winner was Alkimos of Luca Cumani's. He had the lot beaten apart from Pisco Sour at Royal Ascot. The 2nd at Windsor confirmed the race's form when she finished 6l behind Rumh at Newbury. The 3rd and 4th haven't run since, but they had decent form prior to the Windsor run. Glyn Ceiriog was outpaced a little bit at Doncaster at a crucial stage last time out, but kept on again for 3rd, behind another pair who were clear in Set To Music and Calaf. Calaf only found one too good last time out also, but it was to a useful prospect. The way Glyn Ceiriog forged clear of the rest of the field was quite promising and now she gets a step up in trip which she's been crying out for. She's not impossibly handicapped and everything suggests that she'll run her most competitive race to date tonight.

[fintron]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread good luck with it Rupert

[BillyHills]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

I use a staking system that ranges from 1-5pts and quite often my selections are double-figure prices. That's likely to change a little bit now - but we'll see how it goes.

Worst thing you can do is change things just because your going public and think you need to stick a shortie up just to get a winner on the board, keep believing in what your good at and the profit will look after itself, we all have bad runs, dont get frustrated. All the best:ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Worst thing you can do is change things just because your going public and think you need to stick a shortie up just to get a winner on the board, keep believing in what your good at and the profit will look after itself, we all have bad runs, dont get frustrated. All the best:ok

Cheers. Nah, I don't mean it like that. A lot of my selections will be what I consider value. Always the way I've tried looking at things. I mean, my BBOTD selections have typically been especially big prices - I had a look at my spreadsheet recently and the prices have been consistently big lately. A lot of my other selections just in the daily threads etc are shorter, just if people were expecting a lot of big prices, that might not be the case. I don't really have a specific price range I go for. Simply value and that'll be the way I go. If I think something is good value at 2/1 I'll go for it. Anyway, won't be changing anything in particular and hopefully will have some sort of return from my two to come tonight! Thanks again :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Excellent start. Royal Red led everywhere but the line. Trend Line got barged all over the shop but wasn't good enough ultimately. Glyn Ceiriog plugged on but looks slow. -5pts on the day again. -10pts overall.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread I just wrote a big post and lost it. :sad

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Here's my condensed version - apologies. 4.15 Hamilton - 1pt e/w Body Language @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Ann Duffield's filly sneaks into this 0-65 handicap on her handicapping debut, and I give her a great chance. She was clearly unfancied when sent off at 33/1 in a field of 5 on debut, but chased home the smart Highest. Her price was much shorter on her second start but again the form worked out quite well. The winner, Ardlui, was a bit unlucky off 85 last time out. The 2nd hacked up next time out and ran respectively off 76 since. The form of her 3rd maiden effort again proved to be very strong. Wild Coco bolted in, but is entered in the Yorkshire Oaks and the 2nd had previous very decent maiden form - shown by an opening mark of 82. Crimson Knight was beaten fully 17l but gives hope to Ann Duffield's charge considering he won his handicap debut off 72. Body Language was only 5l behind - and staying on from a poor position, and was 6 lengths clear of the 6th. A mark of 65 looks fair, and now with her sights lowered, can go very well today. Her high knee action suggests a bit of cut will be up her street (she did get some at Haydock last time out) and everything looks prime for a good run. Duffield's horses are running reasonably well, and Paul Hanagan boasts an impressive 22% strike rate at the track, as well as showing profit for Duffield. It's a much weaker race and I'll be surprised if she isn't bang there.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Brighton - 2pts win Interakt @ 5/1 (Skybet) Interakt doesn't win very often, but loves Brighton, and I think the step back down in trip will suit her. She's been in decent form this spring/start of summer, with only one disappointment being put down to over-racing over a mile at Brighton behind Diddums. She ran well at Kempton penultimately, and again was only swamped late on at her beloved Brighton last time out. She may have only won once, but it was here, and her form last time out has been boosted by the 2nd winning easily since. She's a keen racer who has never tried her hand over 6f which is why I find her especially interesting today. She often just gets run out of it close home - hampered by her early exertions, and if she can settle better today over a quicker trip, she can finish with greater effect, and get her head in front. It's quite a competitive race, but Harry Bentley gets on well with the filly with form figures of 243, she goes well at Brighton (3138203), is well handicapped (won off 64 last year - currently off 55 with a 5lb claimer on board), and Joseph Tuite's horses have been running well lately - however few he has. The rain hasn't really come, with the course good (good to firm in places) and all looks set for another huge showing. I just hope she gets her head in front for the first time in just over a year.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Brighton - 1pt e/w Integria @ 17/2 (Boyles) Integria is another horse who loves the track having recorded back-to-back wins here since blinkers were reapplied in May. He didn't seem to stay the 10f trip here later that month, before things didn't go to plan at Bath (after a narrow defeat at Yarmouth) It was rather a comical performance - having been slow away, he slipped, his rider lost an iron, was unbalanced, and could never challenge in last place. He showed potential to be progressive when idling in front and narrowly losing to Cane Cat at Yarmouth off 67 suggesting that a mark of 68 is not beyond him, and he ran well enough to be beaten 2l in perhaps a better race at Warwick last time out. Conditions are back to being ideal today at a suitable trip, at his favoured track, with Tony Culhane back on board. There are a few horses who are well handicapped on their best form, and some who also love the track, but I think you're bound to get a run for your money with George Baker's gelding, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he can grab course win number three today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Mixed day. Body Language ran a similar race to her maiden runs, and unfortunately couldn't repay e/w in 4th. Integria drifted right out and it was disappointing to see him struggle virtually from the start of the race. The plan did come together with Interakt, though, fortunately. Was backed in and got up with about 100 yards to race. Staked: 6pts Return: 12pts P/L: +6pts Overall P/L: -4pts Will take a look at the evening racing at Southwell shortly to see if anything interests me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Nothing of interest at Southwell, but across the Irish Sea... 5.50 Sligo - 1pt e/w Shelley Beach @ 8/1 (BlueSQ) David Wachman's filly is a 6 race maiden but if you can forgive her last run, she must have a huge chance of at least making the frame this evening. She has faced stiff tasks to date having chased home the now 95 rated Look At Me on her second start. A close 3rd to another O'Brien hotpot followed as she was beaten 3/4l by Petronius Maximus at the Curragh. He's another rated in the 90s. She returned to the track in quite a nice handicap at the Curragh in March and ran a good race without fitness on her side. She finished 3rd, 3l behind the first two. The winner was Defining Year who's gone well since, and likewise with the 2nd horse. Shelley Beach gave weight away to a horse rated 6lbs higher in Obligada after that, before throwing in an uncharacteristic stinker last time out when well fancied in over 7f. However, the ground was firm that day which probably didn't suit, and she can be forgiven seen as she'd been so consistent prior. She's back to 6f and on soft ground in much more suitable company today, and blinkers are applied to sharpen her up. I think she can bounce back here for a yard going pretty well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread How can horses seemingly lose all ability within weeks?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Might be one earlier, but will start with one of my 'alert' horses. 5.30 Catterick - 1.5pts e/w Eijaaz @ 5/1 (PaddyPower) Eijaaz has been running well this season at a few different tracks, which bodes well for a return to his beloved Catterick. Geoff Harker's gelding has won no fewer than 5 times at the track, and rarely runs a bad race at the Yorkshire venue. Most of these wins have come in claimers, but he looks sure to put in another bold bid in a weakish handicap. 22753123167211610422 show his record at Catterick, and with his wellbeing in no question, he can add another '1' to his tally today. The benefit of the horse is that he rarely does more than enough. No fewer than 8 of his 10 career successes have come by margins of less than a length! This means he always seems well handicapped as he's not badly punished by the handicapper. Michael O'Connell takes 3lbs off his back, and is no detrimental jockey booking either, as he knows how to ride the horse, and has a good record on him - winning twice. He won a claimer at Redcar last time out from Just Five, who boosted the form since with two good runs in handicaps - including yesterday when only narrowly deprived. He's a strong traveller who often canters up to challenge. Doesn't find a great deal, but quite often it's enough. I expect a very solid showing today so a decent e/w bet for me. Ideal conditions, and he's in good heart at the moment.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Catterick - 3pts win Armiger @ 5/2 (BlueSQ) I'm quite surprised Armiger is not a shorter price for this modest maiden race, actually. William Muir's colt showed promise on debut at Bath when getting outpaced before staying on close home to finish 4th of 8. Confirmed this promise when 4th again on his second start, though this was a 15 runner race at Windsor, and a much better maiden than the one he contests today in my opinion. Both 1st and 2nd horses have gone on to run solid midfield races in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, and the 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th to name four have gone okay since in maidens. Superplex looks exposed now to anything half-decent, and there doesn't appear too many challengers. It is eyecatching that Paul Hanagan takes the ride on Armiger considering Richard Fahey has a runner in the race in Docs Legacy (9/1) and I think this just increases confidence in the selection. I do think 5/2 is generous and I think he'll take a lot of beating.