Tennis - Wimbledon

[jofusie]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Cool,never know with Louis Walsh!

[Left4Dead]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon How many of you gentlemen actually make lines for tennis ? I am very interested in learning and have been trying some things but sometimes they are close and sometimes they are waaaaayyy different . I think that maybe most people just consider the bookmaker's line to be right (which for the most part is accurate) and then find reasons that player A or B might have a better chance to win .. Personally I like to try to figure out the odds maker/bookmaker's strategy to come up with the initial line and then handicap to see how much it changes or to find where the value is so to speak .. I have been doing this with NBA lines for some time and currently use my own power rating values to come up with the raw number , tried using the points standing for tennis but I do not know if that will work or if I am on the right track . I have heard some of you mention value here or there on certain tennis matches which suggest to me that you are actually making calculations ...Any help is much appreciated , I also understand if some or most are not anxious to share your knowledge because its valuable and people might have worked very hard and long hours to educate themselves and improve themselves as gamblers . Apologies if this is not the right place for this post ...

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon That bloody rain. Just as Nico was 6-2 up in the tie break.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Backing Seppi was poor idea, even against pathetic Baghdatis. Seppi just did not want to play today, even more so after the rain breaks.

[dave5perth]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Dont normally watch to much female tennis, but that match with Li and Lisicki was excellent. Lisicki could go a fair way in this with her serve which you dont see to often in the female game.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon WINNERS Sabine Lisicki > Na Li. 2.36 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Xavier Malisse -2.5 vs Florian Mayer. 2.02 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Klara Zakopalova +4.5 vs Lucie Safarova. 2.02 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Tamira Paszek -3 vs Christina McHale. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Maria Kirilenko > Tamarine Tanasugarn. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (3/10) LOSERS Andreas Seppi > Marcos Baghdatis. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Awesome day only spoiled by poor Seppi and his lazy attitude. Obviously Lisicki made my day! :ok P.S. One more pending from today as Wozniacki and Razzano have been moved onto Friday.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Just the one for me tomorrow I think. Still have the Del Porto handicap pending and the Troicki outright so I'll be rooting for those 2 as well as Isner who I'm taking on the handicap. Nicolas Almagro vs John Isner- Isner -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10)- LOSS Juan Martin Del Porto vs Olivier Rochus- Del Porto -7.5 handicap- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10)- WIN

Del Porto did what I expected of him today by crushing Rochus. Got the Isner one completely wrong though, Almagro was better in all departments really. Shame that Troicki lost for one of the outrights but Monfils can make up for that tomorrow hopefully. -0.67 today then, meaning I'm onto +3.19 now. Need to improve on that significantly for a good slam.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon What a great day of tennis that was, you really can't beat Wimbledon, best event in the world. Soderling-Hewitt, Lu beating Troicki, a bloody excellent match between Dimitrov and Tsonga, Harrison and Ferrer playing a thriller, Lisicki beating Li and boring Radwanska getting kicked out. It's living up to expectations so far.

[Striker]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Friday Petra Kvitova to beat Vinci @ 1.2 [skybet]..Stake,10/10 Finalist last week at Eastbourne and been impressive in steam rolling first two opponents this week.Petra a semi finalist at Wimbledon last year is looking more than capable of at least matching that this time around

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Nicolas Almagro to beat John Isner @ 7/4 Strength 7/10 bet 365 Almagro is unreliable on grass however I felt he showed poise in his victory over Nieminen and is serving well - firing 18 aces in that match. Isner, surprisingly, has barely played any matches on grass and hasn't fared too well when he has. I think Almagro matches up quite well against him, has the better groundies and Isner won't exploit his poor movement as much as other players so he'll be able to get into a rhythm. Almagro to prevail in closely fought battle.

Good job from Nico. He just had that extra bit of class at vital moments to squeak clear of lumbering big bad John.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon One early for Friday, will add the rest when totals and handicaps will be available Daniela Hantuchova > Victoria Azarenka. 2.56 @ Pinnacle (3/10) Daniela Hantuchova has been in awesome form lately which can not be said about Azarenka. The Belarus number one has got all sorts of injury problems with retirements happening very often. Even if she is healthy I think she'll have very hard time against Hantuchova. Daniela has got very good serve and can play baseline tennis as well. The fact that Hantuchova has beaten Azarenka in both of their matches (one of those was this year) certainly will be a confidence booster for Hantuchova is she needed one. Handicap is not appealing (2.5 games) for Hantuchova so I'm having a win with smaller stakes instead of handicap. I reckon if she's good to cover the handicap she should be able to win as well. And then there's always a possibility of a retirement for Azarenka...

[LAMPS]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Vintage Federer tonight, so classy just in second/third gear of course the young Frenchman may have been fatigued from his previous round match but Fed at times was unplayable. It's going to take someone very clutch to break him this year apart from 1 game where Fed went 0-40 down (he still held) Adrian Mannarino never had a sniff. Re Hantuchova she's not 100% either after an abdomen injury and i'm not so sure she's worth backing especailly given she dropped a set to Vitalia Diatchenko an unknown qualifier. I hope it works out for you though mate, thinking about Lopez tomorrow on the h'cap, Roddick is not the Roddick of old but his h2h over Lopez is a worry 7-0 to A.Rod but we saw at Queens that they are much closer than that statistic indicates, even more so given Roddick's injur problems in 2011. Will decide overnight but +5, almost an entire set looks big :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

X. Malisse vs F. Mayer 2pts X. Malisse (-2.5 games) to beat F. Mayer - 2.02 with Pinnacle V. Troicki vs Y-H. Lu 2.5pts V. Troicki (-5.5 games) to win - 2.03 with Pinnacle

-0.46pts for the day. Malisse destroyed Mayer after that first set to bring the handicap in but Troicki was a massive disappointment. Could have been worse..... Well done to others with winners! Espescially the Lisicki backers, what a game!

[Marek_Hamsik]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

One early for Friday, will add the rest when totals and handicaps will be available Daniela Hantuchova > Victoria Azarenka. 2.56 @ Pinnacle (3/10) there are 2 things about Danielka, that make me want to bet against her... 1. she is emotional... she cant deal with hard issues... like tuff oponents... she doesnt like to fight...for a win... 2.she gave an interview to our press and she mentioned her injuries... she has issues with her arm and some other muscles ... and was talking about not beeing able to play at more than her 60% ... just a few thoughts... nothing more... gl to you :hope:cheers

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon R. Nadal vs G. Muller 5/5pts Under 30.5 games - 1.92 with Pinnacle 'Lump on, lump on, lump on!'. That was my first instinct when i saw this line and, after taking an in-depth look at this match-up, i still see no reason not to. The head to head record of this pair is 1-1 but i think that can be completely ignored here. Both of those matches were back in 2005 and since then, as we all know, Nadal has improved immensely whilst Muller has been left behind. Muller struggles to beat top players, struggles to even compete with them infact. Many people fancied Raonic to come through their match in the last round but the youngster had to pull out due to injury so you could argue that he is a bit fortunate to be here. He is certainly fortunate to be here after no resistance in the last round. He has lost to some below average ATP players this year so that is not encouraging form to come into this match off the back of. Nadal has played flawless tennis so far this tournament and i expect him to come in straight sets here. He has broken easily and against someone like Muller he will cause a lot of trouble on the serve, just like he does with all the big servers out there. The only danger to this for me is the possibility of a tie break but i can't see Muller holding his serve for enough games to force one, never mind breaking Nadal's if he himself is broken. I would have had this line around the 4/6 mark personally so to see these odds is a massive bonus. So, maximum bet on a generous line for me.

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Igor Andreev vs Bernard Tomic set betting 3-1 tomic 5/2 skybet i like the look of this player called tomic i think he will have great future i feel he might go far in this tournament Grigor Dimitrov vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga set betting 3-1 tsonga 11/4 skybet these two are playing well at the moment especially on this surface so it might be a tough match for both players but i fancy tsonga with experience on grass to win in four

it was close in the end but tsonga came through for me against good player who was playing at the top of his game

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon A. Roddick vs F. Lopez 2.5pts A. Roddick (-4.5 games) to win - 2.03 with Pinnacle Roddick has a great record against Lopez, having won 7 out of the 7 matches between them. This week he has looked like a man on a mission, so focused and playing well in previous matches. His serve has been outstanding, giving away only a couple of break points and making just 2 double faults. When the stats are like that, you know he is on form and is a danger to anyone. What impressed me in his match versus Hanescu was his baseline game, mixing it up well against a powerful player. Hanescu played well in that match (i don't think the hand injury was a hindrance) and for Roddick to look untroubled was evidence that he is gradually getting to the top of his game. Lopez has played well so far too, winning his last match against a tricky opponent well. However, i see his Wimbledon campaign coming to an end here against a much tougher opponent. He made Roddick work hard for his win when they met at Queen's not long ago but Roddick's returning was nowhere near as good as it has been this week. This handicap could be covered even if it is a close match but i can see the American stepping it up again and coming through well enough to cover this line.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Svetlana Kuznetsova > Yanina Wickmayer. 1.65 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Although the handicap is just 2 games I still can not have it. It's Kuzentsova after all so anything can happen. Would not be surprised if this one went to 3 sets as both are very inconsistent. Think Kuznetsova at the moment is in better shape and mood. And the match-up is very good for the Russian. She can defend very well and should be able to counter punch. Wickmayer can play at the same level through out the whole match and will give Kuzy lots of chances. It's all about taking them. Kuznetsova has won both matches against Wicky and surprise surprise... it was 3 sets on both occasions. No handicaps, just a win for Kuznetsova. Mardy Fish -5 vs Robin Haase. 2.06 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Despite Haase beating Verdasco in the previous round I don't rate him that high. I think Fish will have this one pretty comfortably. If we look at the serve then Mardy has got one of the best in the business. Haase has his ups and downs, his baseline game still is far from the level that is needed in Slams and Fish should make the most of his opportunity. One break could be enough if the score is 6-3 in on of the sets and the other two go to tie-breaks. Not sure what to read in their H2H as Fish beat Haase 7-6, 6-1, 6-1 recently in French Open. Fish not playing on clay where Haase is clearly a better player yet he apparently checked out of that match. Anyway believe Fish will win by 5 or more. Gilles Simon +6 vs Juan Martin Del Potro. 1.95 @ Pinnacle (6/10) This is the first time Del Potro has made it past 2nd round in Wimbledon. It's mainly because of the draw or lack of it. Flavio Cipolla should not be playing in Slams and Olivier Rochus can't serve. Yet still Del Potro dropped a set against Rochus and was a break down in the 2nd set against Cipolla. Simon surely has got lot more to offer and his return game should trouble the Argentine player. Simon has played pretty well against Del Potro beating him in New Haven in 2007 and taking to five sets in US open a year later. Don't think he can beat Del Potro right now but 6 games looks like a very good offer on the Frenchman. Tamira Paszek > Francesca Schiavone. 2.65 @ Bwin (4/10) Have not been impressed with Schiavone and don't think that this is her surface. Of course, she can play on every surface but faster conditions should suit Paszek more. She's played two nice matches this week whilst Francesca should have lost to Dokic but survived, then was poor against Strycova B. Won't work against Paszek, I think the Austrian has got all the tools that are needed to get rid of Schiavone. They had very dramatic match here in 2008. Schiavne won that one 10-8 in the third set, so Paszek was very close on that occasion. She managed to beat the Italian five weeks later in Montreal. Although they haven't played since, I think there won't be any advantages for either of the two players. Paszek better on serve and that is always important on grass. So my pick is Paszek.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon I certainly agree with Paszek being value at 2.65, would have her even at 2.20 to be honest. Mardy Fish should cover the handicap too. The only thing that I would really disagree with is the Hantuchova bet. Good luck with that, but I would not want to be involved in that match. And if I had to pick one, it would be Aza today.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Martinez Sanchez-V.Williams over 20,5 games 5/10 Marinez is not the best player but Williams had much problems against the 40-year-old Japanese Date-Krumm and I think that at least one set will be close or even won by Martinez Sanchez. What do you think?

[jofusie]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Lopez vs Roddick selection Lopez +4.5 games @5/6 Paddy Power They played 2 weeks ago at Queens and although Roddick won it was very close with Roddick a break down in the final set.Lopez has been a quarter finalist here twice and his game suits grass with a big serve,heavy slice on his backhand and loves to come to the net.It should be very close and Lopez could win it but I'm gonna stay safe with the handicap

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Fish -4.5 games vs Haase @ 1.943 (Pinnacle) Odds going up on this, not sure why but I think Mardy can cover this one. Haase has a big game, and can be dangerous in the 1st week of Wimbledon as Nadal found out last year but his game is also flawed, lets not forget he lost to Baghy in Holland last week in 2 sets, and lost to Dolgopolov in Halle and he is horribly out of form these days. He beat grass mug Riba fairly well and Verdasco, great win for him but Verdasco was horribly bad in that one with 11 double faults and over 40 unforced errors. Fish willl be alot tougher to break in this one, he's only been broken once in 2 matches here so far. He also has more off the deck than Haase and is more consistent in general. I would fancy him to wear Haase down as the match goes on like he did at the French Open this year when he won in 3.

[crack]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Sport	Tennis
Event	Richard Gasquet - Simone Bolelli
Selection	Simone Bolelli
Strength	5/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 7.00
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 32. Best of 5 sets. Richard Gasquet is a favorite in this match but I think that Simone Bolelli can beat him. Simone Bolelli is in great shape, defeating many good rivals like Martin Fischer, Stanislaw Wawrinka. He won against Wawrinka in three sets in the last match! Bolelli played in qualifying so it will be sixth match for him! I'm sure that he feels very good and I give him many chances against Gasquet. Bolelli plays one-handed backhand, Gasquet too. Richard has not played at Wimbledon a year ago so paradoxically he can lose. Simone Bolelli plays very nice on grass so I bet on him. Odd is fantastic at centrebet.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Juan Martin Del Potro - Gilles Simon
Selection	Gilles Simon
Strength	10/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 4.85
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 32. Best of 5 sets. I see very close match here so odd like 4.85 at centrebet is very good for me. Juan Martin Del Potro's favourite surface is hardcourt, he doesn't like play on grass. He has very strong service. Head-to-head series tied 1-1. Matches between these players always are very close. The last match they played in US Open GS on hardcourt in 2008 and Juan Martin Del Potro won 3-2. Simon defeated Juan Martin Del Potro on hardcourt in 2007 after three sets 7-6(3) 6-7(5) 7-5. I'm sure that it will be difficult match for Juan Martin. Del Potro has better service but Gilles Simon plays better in rallies. Del Potro lost one set against Rochus in this tournament, erenow he lost against Adrian Mannarino in two sets.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Lukasz Kubot - Gael Monfils
Selection	Lukasz Kubot
Strength	10/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.45
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 32. Gael Monfils is in very good shape but Lukasz Kubot too. Monfils lost one set against weak player Grega Zemlja. He has very good service but Zemlja had many break points - 9. Gael saved 6 break points. The match lasted 134 minutes. Lukasz Kubot has nice service too. He likes play style service&volley. He has very good volley. He will be difficult opponent for Gael. Lukasz Kubot said that the most important for him are Grand Slam tournaments so motivation must be high. He defeated two players who play very good on grass - Clement and Karlovic. Karlovic has very strong service but Kubot defeated him in three sets! Ivo had 4 break points but Lukasz saved all! Kubot feels very good here and I give him many chances in this match.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Dmitry Tursunov - Jurgen Melzer (Match In Progress)
Selection	Dmitry Tursunov
Strength	10/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 3.35
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 64. Best of 5 sets. Match In Progress. Jurgen Melzer leads 2-1. In my opinion Dmitry Tursunov will win this match so odd like 3.35 at unibet is very good for me. Dmitry Tursunov likes play on grass. Jurgen Melzer's favourite surface is clay. Dmitry Tursunov leads 3-1 in head-to-head series so Dmitry Tursunov likes play against Jurgen. The last match they played in Marseille and Tursunov won after three sets. The match was very close and lasted 102 minutes. Jurgen plays style service&volley so grass is very good surface for him but it will be second match for him on this surface in this year. Tursunov played in Nottingham, Queens Club ATP, s-Hertogenbosch. He won tournament in s-Hertogenbosch. Dmitry is in great shape and I give him more chances than Melzer.

[flipskee]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Sport	Tennis
Event	Richard Gasquet - Simone Bolelli
Selection	Simone Bolelli
Strength	5/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 7.00
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 32. Best of 5 sets. Richard Gasquet is a favorite in this match but I think that Simone Bolelli can beat him. Simone Bolelli is in great shape, defeating many good rivals like Martin Fischer, Stanislaw Wawrinka. He won against Wawrinka in three sets in the last match! Bolelli played in qualifying so it will be sixth match for him! I'm sure that he feels very good and I give him many chances against Gasquet. Bolelli plays one-handed backhand, Gasquet too. Richard has not played at Wimbledon a year ago so paradoxically he can lose. Simone Bolelli plays very nice on grass so I bet on him. Odd is fantastic at centrebet.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Juan Martin Del Potro - Gilles Simon
Selection	Gilles Simon
Strength	10/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 4.85
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 32. Best of 5 sets. I see very close match here so odd like 4.85 at centrebet is very good for me. Juan Martin Del Potro's favourite surface is hardcourt, he doesn't like play on grass. He has very strong service. Head-to-head series tied 1-1. Matches between these players always are very close. The last match they played in US Open GS on hardcourt in 2008 and Juan Martin Del Potro won 3-2. Simon defeated Juan Martin Del Potro on hardcourt in 2007 after three sets 7-6(3) 6-7(5) 7-5. I'm sure that it will be difficult match for Juan Martin. Del Potro has better service but Gilles Simon plays better in rallies. Del Potro lost one set against Rochus in this tournament, erenow he lost against Adrian Mannarino in two sets.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Lukasz Kubot - Gael Monfils
Selection	Lukasz Kubot
Strength	10/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.45
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 32. Gael Monfils is in very good shape but Lukasz Kubot too. Monfils lost one set against weak player Grega Zemlja. He has very good service but Zemlja had many break points - 9. Gael saved 6 break points. The match lasted 134 minutes. Lukasz Kubot has nice service too. He likes play style service&volley. He has very good volley. He will be difficult opponent for Gael. Lukasz Kubot said that the most important for him are Grand Slam tournaments so motivation must be high. He defeated two players who play very good on grass - Clement and Karlovic. Karlovic has very strong service but Kubot defeated him in three sets! Ivo had 4 break points but Lukasz saved all! Kubot feels very good here and I give him many chances in this match.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Dmitry Tursunov - Jurgen Melzer (Match In Progress)
Selection	Dmitry Tursunov
Strength	10/10
Date	24/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 3.35
Reasoning	Wimbledon GS (GBR) - Grass, Round of 64. Best of 5 sets. Match In Progress. Jurgen Melzer leads 2-1. In my opinion Dmitry Tursunov will win this match so odd like 3.35 at unibet is very good for me. Dmitry Tursunov likes play on grass. Jurgen Melzer's favourite surface is clay. Dmitry Tursunov leads 3-1 in head-to-head series so Dmitry Tursunov likes play against Jurgen. The last match they played in Marseille and Tursunov won after three sets. The match was very close and lasted 102 minutes. Jurgen plays style service&volley so grass is very good surface for him but it will be second match for him on this surface in this year. Tursunov played in Nottingham, Queens Club ATP, s-Hertogenbosch. He won tournament in s-Hertogenbosch. Dmitry is in great shape and I give him more chances than Melzer.

How would you fancy Bolleli to be winning over Gasquet even at these odds. Richards game is great for this surface. On the other hand Bolleli practically sucks big time. He is lucky to even be in this tournament being a lucky loser and losing to KENNY DE SCHEPPER who doesn't know if he's left or right. And how can you rate the MANY good rivals (how would 2 sound) being good wins. De Fischer also sucks, and beating a Wawrinka who doesn't like this surface and not having a decent match on grass isn't great either. To be honest I'm taking the 3-0 in sets @ 1.80 - Unibet. But GL bro.

[jofusie]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Maria Sanchez vs Venus Williams selection Maria Sanchez to win 5/2 Paddy Power Maria has a pretty good all round game,she has a strong serve and loves to come to the net.She knocked out Jankovic in the first round and that will have given her massive confidence.As for Venus she is just on the back of a 3 hour match against a 40-yr old where she was less than convincing.Maria plays a similar style of tennis to Date-Krumm but I believe will be effective enough to beat Venus today

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Didn't actually think i would be taking much today but having 4 in the end. Heavily considered taking the Gasquet handicap as well but the line is a game too high for my liking although he may well win comfortably. Still have the Monfils outright running, so effectively I'm on him to win today at 11/10 to beat Kubot. But having 4 others as well. Juan Martin Del Porto vs Gilles Simon- Del Porto -5.5 handicap- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Andy Murray vs Ivan Ljubicic- Murray -6.5 handicap- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Feliciano Lopez vs Andy Roddick- Roddick -4.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Alex Bogomolov vs Tomas Berdych- Under 30.5 games- Evens Bet365- (4/10) First off I'm backing Juan Martin to cover the handicap for the second round in a row after doing it with ease against Rochus. Watched most of the match excluding the final set, and Del Porto was on fire with his groundstrokes from the second set onwards. Rocus found it difficult to win a point, let alone a game on or off serve against Del Porto. He only really lost the first set because of the conditions. Was fairly late that evening, bit of moisture on the court and the light fading. When they played in decent sunshine, Del Porto looked extremely impressive for a guy who struggles on grass. Simon isn't bad on the grass but if Del Porto produces the kind of shots he did against Rochus, the Frenchman will struggle. He hasn't eased past Roger-Vasselin or Sela in his first couple of matches, and Del Porto will be on a high from yesterday and be a couple of levels above Simon's previous opponents. Both previous meetings between these two have gone the distance, but their last match in the US open when Del Porto won, he covered the handicap and with Simon, if things go against him, he does have a tendancy to lose focus and almost give up sets in matches, so I'm having Del Porto on the handicap here. I may be alone in this and I must be crazy to back Andy in any of his matches but I do fancy him to shine today and win with a bit to spare. At Queen's he had some problems given to him in his first few matches, and then when he was expected to face his toughest opponent yet in Roddick, he absolutely blew the American off court. I'm not saying he will blow Ljubicic off the court and bagel him in three sets, but I do think he will win more comfortably than many expect. Ljubicic was comfortable against Stakhovsky without having to play exceptionally well, and had a good win over Cilic but facing Murray at Wimbledon is a completely different test. We've seen this over the past couple of years in Simon, Troicki and even Ferrero that it's not easy to play the Scot on home soil and although Ljubicic is experienced enough to not let this faze him, I still see parts of the match where Murray is really on top and Ljubicic even with his big serve struggles to harm Andy. Ivan easily won the last meeting back in China at the back end of last year but before that, Murray had won the last 4, winning easily in two of those matches. Really do fancy him today and although Ljubicic may pinch a tight set, I do see Murray motoring ahead in at least one set, so wouldn't go near the unders here, look at DGT in the first round, but the handicap looks a good enough price for me to back the Scot here. God help me. I'm with Mirage on this one and I don't see it being as tight as it was at Queen's. I watched virtually all of Lopez's match against Schuettler where I had the Spaniard on the handicap which he covered. However, his serve wasn't looking as effective as it sometimes is in matches. The German had a fair number of break points on Lopez's serve, 8 in total but only took one and in the end he just ran out of steam like he does so often in a lengthy match. In the rallies though, Lopez, to be fair was poor. It always looked as though he'll throw in an unforced error at anytime, and he really just didn't do anything in the rallies to trouble Schuettler. Was either straight to him, or just the backhand slice which Roddick will love today. Granted Andy doesn't do alot in the rallies either, but if there are a fair share of rallies today, Roddick should come out on top on a far more regular basis than Lopez. At Queen's, neither could do much on the other's serve, but if Lopez serves like he did against Schuettler, which although the stats say 28 aces, wasn't great Andy should be able to be comfortable for most parts here and return a decent percentage which in the end should lead to him winning this in better style than a couple of weeks ago, and the handicap is low enough for me to have faith in the American. Gone for the unders with Berdych over the handicap, which was the opposite to what I did in his match against Benneteau. I've done this simply becuase of the better price and if the Czech plays how he did against the Frenchman in his previous match, there's no way Bogomolov will be able to cope with Berdych here. It was the best I've seen him play for a good while, and his poor end to the clay season looks to be well and truly forgotten. As i mentioned when I wrote about that match, Berdych has got to do well over these two weeks to try and defend his points after his poor French Open, so he's going to want to dispatch of his American opponent as quickly as possible today, like he did against Volandri and Benneteau. Bogomolov had a near enough walk over against Chela in the previous round, and that could well work against him in some aspects. His past two opponents have been pretty average players, but then trying to improve your game to match a guy in the top 8 must be hugely difficult to do and try and adapt to the quicker pace and extra quality from the first point. Really don't see him being able to do that or trouble Berdych too much, like he didn't against Malisse last week where Malisse found it no trouble to break serve and win comfortably. See the same happening again today and Berdych to do this fairly easily for me.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Four bets from sunny SW19 for me today. Most have already been mentioned but I'll put my case forward regardless. - Under 32.5 games (Alex Bogomolov Jnr v Tomas Berdych) with unibet medium stakes I think this line is too generous. When you consider the Berdych handicap is -8, then the unders appears to give more scope. A 6-4 6-4 6-3 would be covered by the unders but not the line. Don't think Bogomolov Jnr will cause the Czech too many problems. Berdych seems to have found a bit of self-belief back on the grass of Wimbledon. Crushing wins over Volandri and Benneteau are nothing to crack oven the Budvar about but at least he's being ruthless. Bogomolov Jnr is no better than Benneteau for me. Benefitted from a kind draw - Young mentally checked out on him and Chela ... well, from watching that match, you knew Chela had a flight already booked home that left that night. The American is more of a sparrer than anything else, and Berdych will wear him down. Bogomolov Jnr shouldn't get too many chances on his serve, while the Czech should get a few sighters on his. There could be one tight set but think Berdych should come through this without too much hassle. - Mardy Fish -4.5 games (v Robin Haase) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle moderate stakes Think Haase's time is probably up here. He played Fish on his favourite surface at Roland Garros and was punished and I expect him to go down on the grass. Fish has been solid yet unspectacular this week. Took care of Granollers and Istomin in a fairly professional manner and I suspect we'll see the same kind of performance here. Haase's just too erratic in clutch moment for me. Riba was a gimmie in R1 and Verdasco was goosed after five sets with Stepanek the previous day. Fish won't offer nearly as many presents as these two. Could be one or two close sets but Fish has the better game for grass, and should pull through and complete the line in the progress. - Andy Roddick -4.5 games (v Feliciano Lopez) @ 2.16 with Pinnacle moderate stakes Big rewards considering the price if this one comes home. People are talking about how Lopez ran Roddick really close at Queen's but one must remember it was Roddick's first match on the surface, and he came into the event in poor form. He's certainly built up his confidence since then. He's speaking about how he loves London and feels at home here, especially on centre court. Back on it again against an opponent he's beaten seven times, I think he'll get the better of him. Roddick is serving well and rallying fine, and I think he'll eventually get a read on Lopez's serve. The Spaniard tends to drop his percentage after two sets and that's where this line could be won. Roddick will also have the support of the crowd, and with his game approaching a modicum of his best back on grass, I think he'll get over the line in this one. - Gilles Simon +6 games AH (v Juan Martin Del Potro) @ 1.94 with 188bet moderate stakes This should be far tougher for Del Potro than the odds suggest. He is not an accomplished grass courter. Yes, he's beaten Cipolla and Rochus with a bit to spare, but they are cannon fodder for a big hitter. Simon's a totally different proposition. Admittedly, the Frenchman is not a whizzkid on grass, but he's a very solid counterpuncher who will hold his own in rallies. He took Del Potro to five in the US Open two years ago and won't lie down to the Argentine. Not convinced Simon has it in him to win, but definitely can push Del Potro here. Line appears too big. - Lukasz Kubot (v Gael Monfils) @ 4.5 with Betfair small stakes Definite scope for a trading-out job here. Monfils looks more and more erratic each passing tournament. He's blessed with incredible ability but never seems to channel it correctly. Kubot's going to be a tough nut to crack. He seems to live for the Slams right now. Likes to serve and volley and won't be intimidated by the Frenchman. I can see him running Monfils fairly close in this one, particularly early on, and if he nicks the first set, his in-play price will tumble, giving punters a good chance to cash out. Monfils is not one to be trusted - Zemlja ran him really close - because he has massive dips in concentration. I fancy my chances of getting a decent trade in-play here. :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon One for tomorrow. Gonzalez +5 games AH vs Tsonga @ 2.040 (Pinnacle) Cant wait for this one, it has the makings of a cracker like Tsonga and Dimitrov was. Dimitrov had chances in that one but was let down at times but his shot selection and lack of experience, but for the most part it was a great show of shotmaking, power, net play from both. I expect Gonzo to play a similarly competitive match against Tsonga - he's serving well and Tsonga isnt the best returner when compared with the really top guys and Gonzo's forehand is monstrous. Tsonga is also a beast on grass when he's serving well so I can see at least 4 sets here - hard to see Tsonga clearing this line IMO and he should not be priced @ 1.28 or whatever it is, more like 1.50 I'd say. Gonzo beat him in 09 in a good match at Flushing Meadows, he's not in the same shape now but should be competitive and Tsonga is not one I'd take to cover lines like this.

[Atko]

Well done to all Lopez backers. Read that match totally wrong. Roddick - how the mighty have fallen.

[jofusie]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Lopez vs Roddick selection Lopez +4.5 games @5/6 Paddy Power They played 2 weeks ago at Queens and although Roddick won it was very close with Roddick a break down in the final set.Lopez has been a quarter finalist here twice and his game suits grass with a big serve,heavy slice on his backhand and loves to come to the net.It should be very close and Lopez could win it but I'm gonna stay safe with the handicap

Good start to the day,feel sorry for Roddick though