Tennis - Wimbledon

[soundingstylish]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Lopez beat Henman at his final Wimbledon match' date=' hopefully he plays party pooper yet again. With all the hoo ha about Judy Murray tweeting about how good looking Lopez is he should just blow a kiss at Judy or something just to rattle Murray's cage. :p[/quote'] Surely that will make him play better? It would me for sure. Good work in here lads, some superb calls. Followed on the U35.5 games in the Murray match. :ok

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

I often follow TE, and I really appreciate his selections, but the post you quoted went 1 win - 2 losses, so the "some cracking calls" and CLAP cheering look somewhat strange :lol. As to Kvitova, I already mentioned she reports leg injury. If she will play like against Pironkova, Azarenka will blow her off the court.

:lolI thought Sabine was -1.5 games.If I had tailed him I would have won as I never picked up on sets.at times Im too busy to go through the whole reasoning. anyway watching the german last night she could have done it in 2 sets, Im thinking of going for overs in both ladies semi's. why do people go on about kvitova's injury yet she keeps on winning?

[jofusie]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Tsonga vs Federer selection over 3.5 sets @11/10 Paddy Power It was this stage last year that Federer lost to Berdych and although I aint brave enough to back Tsonga there's a good chance he will win.He won his last 2 matches in straight sets and served 41 aces in them.He looks like a different player in recent weeks including beating Nadal and I cant see this match finishing in 3. I have a free 5euro bet token from Paddy Power so having a fun bet(Lopez,Fish,Tsonga and Tomic to all win @ 1,125/1)

We get a win on the over 3.5 sets,now I just need that fun bet to win and i'll be off to Miami in the morning!

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Rafael Nadal vs Mardy Fish under 71.5 serves in 5/6 skybet most double faults 5/2 skybet with nadals injury this could be some attractive bets

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon What a display from Tsonga on serve, awful errors from Fed but Tsonga was very good. Not to self, stay away from accumulators.............:lol Novak was god awful too, he looks drained from the whole run earlier in the season IMO.

[SteveO]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon There was over £50,00 matched on Federer earlier at 1.01:unsure

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Tsonga's serve was brilliant at the end, great performance coming from two sets down.

[Leeds Legend]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

There was over £50' date='00 matched on Federer earlier at 1.01:unsure[/quote'] I've no idea why you'd back something at 1.01. It's just got FAIL written all over it. I can think of a few occasions this year when a 1.01 bet has lost. England vs Ireland in the cricket, Arsenal vs Newcastle, India to score 300 or more vs SA in the cricket too. All failed. Not that I was clever enough to lay them and risk a tenner to win a grand. Would have been nice :beer

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Tsonga +4 games @ 1.962 (Pinnacle) Tsonga to beat Djokovic @ 3.060 (Pinnacle) Taking this one early, I think Djokovic is vulnerable right now and Tsonga has been a tough match for him with a 5-2 winning h2h. Novak looks a level below the standard he was showing earlier this season, that was clear against Baghdatis and Tomic, the youngster could have taken him with a bit more experience, he was pushing alot of the time hoping for errors, his serve deserted him for spells and he doesnt seem to be hitting the ball as well a few months back. Tsonga is serving like a beast right now, didnt face a break point in the last 3 sets against Federer, and will take the game to Djokovic. I'd price Tsonga no higher than 2.50 right now, so this is value for me.

[Alexc]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

I've no idea why you'd back something at 1.01. It's just got FAIL written all over it. I can think of a few occasions this year when a 1.01 bet has lost. England vs Ireland in the cricket, Arsenal vs Newcastle, India to score 300 or more vs SA in the cricket too. All failed. Not that I was clever enough to lay them and risk a tenner to win a grand. Would have been nice :beer

Backing 1.01 is fine, but only if it's done in certain, researched situations. Good example would be betting against a San Marino in football, which is the nearest thing to a ''sure thing'' in betting. You're pretty much depositing, say, a grand, to make £10 interest in the time it takes for the opposition to go ahead, like, ten minutes. Backing against a player of the calibre of Tsonga, in a sport like tennis which is so unpredictable, in-play, is asking for trouble, imo.

[f_ivanovic]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

I've no idea why you'd back something at 1.01. It's just got FAIL written all over it. I can think of a few occasions this year when a 1.01 bet has lost. England vs Ireland in the cricket, Arsenal vs Newcastle, India to score 300 or more vs SA in the cricket too. All failed. Not that I was clever enough to lay them and risk a tenner to win a grand. Would have been nice :beer

Well if it's got a significant amount over a 99% chance of happening then it's a good bet. In theory. However, the amount you win from such a bet compared to the bankroll you have it is pretty much never worth it. The lowest odds I would probably ever take are 1.10 and would only take them odds if I'm 97%+ certain that it will happen.

[Alexc]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Tsonga +4 games @ 1.962 (Pinnacle) Tsonga to beat Djokovic @ 3.060 (Pinnacle) Taking this one early, I think Djokovic is vulnerable right now and Tsonga has been a tough match for him with a 5-2 winning h2h. Novak looks a level below the standard he was showing earlier this season, that was clear against Baghdatis and Tomic, the youngster could have taken him with a bit more experience, he was pushing alot of the time hoping for errors, his serve deserted him for spells and he doesnt seem to be hitting the ball as well a few months back. Tsonga is serving like a beast right now, didnt face a break point in the last 3 sets against Federer, and will take the game to Djokovic. I'd price Tsonga no higher than 2.50 right now, so this is value for me.

Taking Tsonga seems the play. Looked to me the only reason Djokovic went 2-1 ahead was 'cause Tomic tossed it away, at a time when Doko looked pretty poor.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

- Under 35.5 games (Andy Murray v Feliciano Lopez) @ 2.00 with Pinnacle 4pts WIN

The match went exactly according to plan. Lopez was tired and Murray got a read on his serve.

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

An early one for me for the men's quarters..... Andy Murray vs Feliciano Lopez 2pts Under 35.5 games - 2.11 with Pinnacle This, potentially, could be a close match but i reckon Murray will get it done with a bit to spare. Murray was awesome against Gasquet. Yes, the Frenchman's mental weakness was there for all to see but the Brit still had to come up with the goods in order to get the match wrapped up so comfortably. The same could happen here i feel. I think he is approaching his top form now, just at the right time, and knowing there are doubts about Rafa will no doubt give him an extra boost coming into this game. I watched quite a bit of Lopez's match with Kubot and even though he did well to fight back against the big man i wasn't impressed with him for the most part. His shot selection was baffling at times, his concentration levels were up and down throughout and he gave his opponent plenty of opportunities to get involved when he was serving. Fo me, there is also a major doubt about the mental side of his game when he is facing players in and around the top 10. He has bags of talent but his ability to throw in stinkers (whether it be sets or matches) is 2nd to none. I think Lopez is a great match-up for Murray because he should be able to get cheap points purely by frustrating the Spaniard. The 4-0 head to head record in Murray's favour is obviously encouraging. A small stake on a line that i feel is priced up a bit too high. Also, the line allows for one of those dreaded first set tie breaks that have been killing me lately :wall

Winner winner chicken dinner. Well done to other winners, saw some good calls :)

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Novak Djokovic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2pts J-W. Tsonga to beat N. Djokovic - 2.95 with Pinnacle After watching both of these today on 2 different TV's (and in previous games) I was surprised by these odds. I was expecting every firm to be around the 6/4-13/8 mark so this represents good value to me. Tsonga was outstanding against Federer in those last 3 sets, playing probably the best tennis i have ever seen him play. His serve was devastating and the way he pushed Federer deep behind the baseline due to pure power was impressive. We all know he is capable of that play and, after producing a good performance against Ferrer, it's nice to see a bit of consistency in his game. Despite getting this far, i haven't been too impressed by Djokovic and i get the feeling that he could implode should Tsonga put the pressure on him. He showed his temper when losing a set against Baghdatis and today against Tomic he looked frustrated a lot of the time. His body language wasn't the greatest. Djokovic has had a fine run this year and could come out and wipe the floor with Tsonga but i think the Frenchman has enough things in his favour to warrant a small stake at a nice price.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Semifinal's selections... WTA, Thursday 1) Maria Sharapova -3 vs Sabine Lisicki. 1.73 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Sabine Lisicki has done fantastic job thus far but can't see her getting past Sharapova. Masha clearly is on a mission here and unless she gets Azarenka in the final she is going to get her 2nd Wimbledon title. Lisicki looked fatigued at the end of that Bartoli match and she's playing doubles here as well, so that is not helping. Sharapova has been crushing everybody who's on her way. Well, just about everybody. She dropped just two games against Cibulkova. Dominika was poor but take nothing away from Sharapova. She has destroyed Lisicki earlier this year in Miami 6-2, 6-0. That was on a slow hard courts and grass should give Lisicki more chance but all in all don't think she'll make it. Taking Sharapova with handicap of -3 games which is realistic margin to cover. Experience, fitness, mental strength are factors that will come into picture big time in this match and Sharapova ticks every single box. 2) Petra Kvitova > Victoria Azarenka. 1.83 @ Pinnacle (5/10) It's hard to believe that this is the first Grand Slam semifinal for Azarenka (in singles), but that's a fact. Saw her playing Kvitova last year in Wimbledon. Azarenka really did not play badly, yet she looked helpless most of the time and was hammered 7-5, 6-0. She was 5-3 up in the first set and did not win a single game after that. Kvitova simply blew her off the court and like I said, Aza did not play bad tennis in that match. With Kvitova it's hit or miss and when she's on, she can beat absolutely anybody. Have to fancy her to get another win against Aza and make her first Slam final. ATP, Friday 1) Rafael Nadal -3.5 v Andy Murray. 1.92 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Murray will get beaten at Wimbledon. Again... He's gonna lose in semies. Again... Rafa looked fine in his match against Fish. Murray has got the tennis to beat Nadal but he has come up short too many times lately and I really don't think it will happen this time either. Murray has been playing his old crap passive tennis and against Rafa that is not gona cut it. Should be a close match, perhaps even four sets but not too many tie-breaks and expect Rafa to nail at least one set by 6-3 or 6-4 so -3.5 games does not look too big. 2) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga > Novak Djokovic. 3.02 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Tsonga is absolutely on fire. He won't win the final against Rafa (or Murray) but I reckon he'll get past Novak. Tsonga has been having Djokovic's number and the match-up is good. Tsonga is serving unbelievably which can not be said about Djokovic. He has poor games here and there. He really looks mentally tired and had it not been Tomic who played him in quarters who knows he might have been packing his bags by now. Tsonga has beaten Djokovic incredible 5 times out of 7. The only two times he lost was in Aussie Open final in 2008 (first Slam final for both at the time) and in Miami which is slow surface for a hard courts. Other than that Tsonga has been fine against Nole and with serve it's hard to believe Djokovic will have an easy day at the office. Pick Tsonga here as I believe Djokovic is vulnerable and having seen him in couple matches here he really does not look that invincible anymore.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon + have Rafa on outrights as well. 2.25 @ Bet365 (7/10) Don't play outrights that often but with Roger Federer gone there's only one person who can win it now. Would have been cautious backing Nadal against Federer in the final but there won't be final like that. Nadal will beat Murray on Friday, there's no question about that. Murray just has not got mental strenght to deal with playing at home, extra pressure etc. Nadal looks good after that injury scare. Think he'll play Tsonga in the final and the Frenchman just can not play against Rafa. He always comes up with silly plays and that win at Queens really does not matter, Rafa was dead after French Open. If he gets Djokovic, there will be no need for him to find a motivation after what has happened this season. Four defeats in a row really hurt. And all in the finals. Rafa won't allow that to happen again. So anything above evens is massive odds and I for once can not stay away from outrights.

[Atko]

Good write-ups as usual Psycho, pleasure to read them. Quick question, and this is open to the floor - do you think backing Sharapova at 2.28 to win the title is decent value? I too think she'll beat Lisicki, especially considering her fatigue and susceptibility to choking, and I fear for Kvitova's fitness and her's and Azarenka's bottle in the final. I like my WTA but not a betting expert on it as such, so any advice greatly appreciated.

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Rafael Nadal vs Mardy Fish under 71.5 serves in 5/6 skybet most double faults 5/2 skybet with nadals injury this could be some attractive bets

i cant believe these bets came off

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Victoria Azarenka vs Petra Kvitova over 22.5 games 4/5 skybet these two players have done well to get this far azarenka has been quitely winning without many people realising and her opponent has been playing great on grass so this match will have twists and turns in it so it will be fairly tight there is a chance to reach their first grand slam final and it will make these players more determined to beat each other so i expect three sets

[BobNL]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Good write-ups as usual Psycho' date=' pleasure to read them. Quick question, and this is open to the floor - do you think backing Sharapova at 2.28 to win the title is decent value? I too think she'll beat Lisicki, especially considering her fatigue and susceptibility to choking, and I fear for Kvitova's fitness and her's and Azarenka's bottle in the final. I like my WTA but not a betting expert on it as such, so any advice greatly appreciated.[/quote'] I like Psycho's WTA knowledge and your ATP knowledge, do you agree with the Nadal and Tsonga bets?

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Sport	Tennis
Event	Sharapova v Lisicki
Selection	Sharapova
Strength	10/10
Date	30/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 1.40
Reasoning	I like Sharapova in the semi final. She's been in great form so far, reaching this stage without dropping a set. She's serving great and showing the old form. She is experienced at this stage of a grand slam and a big favourite in the semi final. Lisicki has had an excellent run and is serving great. But, I think she is up against it here. Would be a big surprise to me if she came through.

[f_ivanovic]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Winner winner chicken dinner. Well done to other winners, saw some good calls :)

I also followed yours and Atko's advice (as well as my own opinion) and backed this one today and am glad I did! Also glad I didn't decide to bet on the other matches - I had a feeling they were all very unpredictable and I was right. I currently have 3 outrights on: £23 on Murray at ~ 13/2, now priced at 4/1 £2 on Tsonga at 40/1, now priced at 7/1 £4 on Lisicki at 28/1, now priced at 11/2 (although was strangely 3/1 at one point) Obviously none of them are favourites, was wondering what's the best way I could maybe lay some of these bets? Or should I just stick to my guns and hope they come off? No bets from me for tomorrow so far, will have a look in the morning to see if there's anything I fancy. Also, how can I get involved in this points thing??

[Jenspm]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

I also followed yours and Atko's advice (as well as my own opinion) and backed this one today and am glad I did! Also glad I didn't decide to bet on the other matches - I had a feeling they were all very unpredictable and I was right. I currently have 3 outrights on: £23 on Murray at ~ 13/2, now priced at 4/1 £2 on Tsonga at 40/1, now priced at 7/1 £4 on Lisicki at 28/1, now priced at 11/2 (although was strangely 3/1 at one point) Obviously none of them are favourites, was wondering what's the best way I could maybe lay some of these bets? Or should I just stick to my guns and hope they come off? No bets from me for tomorrow so far, will have a look in the morning to see if there's anything I fancy. Also, how can I get involved in this points thing??

Just set up a list of what can happen, and take your pick. Ie - if Nadal or Djoko wins, you're at -25 on the men's side If Murray wins, you're at +147.5 If Tsonga wins, you're at +57 If you lay them both, you're at +11.5 for Murray, and +8.25 for Tsonga, ie +19.75 Or you can just hedge one, and potentially profit on both. However, I only lay my bets if I feel the odds have dropped lower than they should have - ie, if there is value in the lay. So, if you think 4/1 is too low for Murray, lay it. Else, I'd stick with it.

[Leeds Legend]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon I'd lay Murray and stick with Tsonga. Mainly because of the fact that unless your a heavy gambler (stakes of £2 suggest otherwise) £23 is a fair bit to lose, you can make £11 which covers Tsonga anyway. Plus I feel he's got more of a chance in his semi than Murray. Djokovic is looking slightly jaded IMO. It's always nice to make a profit, though after laying sometimes you can kick yourself if your original selection comes in. I'd lay Lisicki too, Sharapova has looked excellent thus far, apart from the first set against Robson.

[fluffnut]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon posted yesterday my thoughts on backing murray before play in the outright market at 6.4 with a view to trade out either in play v nadal or in the final depending on how nadal looked against fish,well i don't think Nadal looked too bad considering his injury concern. With federer going out this has helped the price move in our favour as it has removed from the betting someone more fancied than murray and replaced him with tsonga who is now ousider of the 4...a position Murray would have certainly been in had Tsonga been beaten as expected. regards Fluffnut

[fluffnut]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Current lay price on betfair for murray is 5.8 but has been down and even touched 5.1 at one point. meaning if you put a grand on murray to win against Lopez yesterday, today you would be picking up £1100. if you put a grand on murray to win the tournament yesterday, today you could have picked up anything from £1254.90 to £1103.45 depending what lay price you got between 5.1 and 5.8. Alternatively you could close your position and have a free bet on murray to win the tournament that would have returned, again depending what lay price you got, anything from £1300 - £600. I however will be keeping my position open with this and either trade out in-running against Nadal or depending on how that game starts in the final. Some seriously good money to be made when you think ahead, backing murray in the outright market before the lopez game was always going to return more than straight backing him for the match win at 1.10. Regards Fluffnut

[jofusie]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Hey Psycho,somebody's copying your tips and putting them out as his own on Betting Expert! http://www.bettingexpert.com/tip/95694-MSharapova-SLisicki?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=tips&utm_campaign=RSS-tips

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

I like Psycho's WTA knowledge and your ATP knowledge' date=' do you agree with the Nadal and Tsonga bets?[/quote'] I'm not sure, I need to give it some more thought. Re Nadal, I still think he looks an incy bit vulnerable, but then so does Murray. I backed Murray for the tournament each way because I though Nadal would tire, and he has done, but then Murray got a wee injury yesterday and does have blackout moments. He can beat Nadal on this surface, but I was more confident at the start of the event than I am now, all things considered. There's something about Djokovic and Wimbledon. They just don't seem to go. I'll probably be backing Tsonga but need to decide in what capacity, be it on a handicap, to win or a back to lay job.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Right, unsurprisingly, I'm joining in with the Tsonga bandwagon. - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +4 games AH (v Novak Djokovic) @ 1.80 with Pinnacle flat stake Hard to swerve this bet, IMO. I wouldn't put anyone off the rewards of the outright price but I'm going to err on the side of caution and take the line. Really can't see Djokovic winning this with a great deal to spare. He seems to be less like himself at Wimbledon. He's not hitting the ball with as much crunch and he appears a little passive. Perhaps fatigue is starting to come into it after a whirlwind start to the year, and if that's the case, he'll have a god awful time against Tsonga. The 5-2 H2H record in favour of the Frenchman has been noted by others and that shows that Tsonga can hit through Djokovic's defences. Added on to that, this is the best form Tsonga's been in for some time. He's serving bombs and and hitting with depth and accuracy. He's also moving well and looks trim. Confidence won't be an issue either, as he'll be flying after despatching of Federer. His grass court season has panned out well, he was a hair's breadth away from taking Queen's, and he's up against an opponent who seems a snap or two below his very best right now. Djokovic might come through this but I really do expect Tsonga to keep it very close indeed. The Serb lost to Berdych at this stage last year and does struggle with huge hitters on grass (I remember Safin beating him back in 2008 at SW19). Definitely worth an investment, but I prefer the extra comfort of the handicap. :hope