jhop Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 So 12 rounds have passed and there are 12 rounds to go. If you haven't yet done so, now is the time to start looking towards the Brownlow and really sussing out what value there is. Let's start off with team most votes. Note: Yellow matches are matches the player has a chance of polling in even though we didnt't think they were in the best three. There is some great value in some players, take a look at SportsIQ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 I want to know if it will be fixed again - I know no one will ever believe it was but I'm in no doubt about it. Two thirds through the count Judd was 1.70 at Sportsbet while 3.50 freely available in an active liquid market at Betfair - simply impossible that should happen and should have been investigated if AFL was fair dinkum! In all my years Judd was the only winner that didn't make sense - even he was astonished. Swan clear overs at 2.00 around end of season but bizarrely polls a string of two's. Big money men control footy these day who like to throw their influence around - getting commentators to take a stand against Knights, for one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Its simpletons like you who make betting on the Brownlow profitable for the smart punters. Dane Swan was the biggest false favourite in history, he is an accumulator of cheap possessions and is only mediocre in his effectiveness. He is not a game breaker or a hard ball winner. HE IS NEVER GOING TO WIN A BROWNLOW! Chris Judd does everything. Contested possession, breaks the lines and pentrates the forward line, wins his own ball and is all class. :clap:clap As for Sportsbets odds it is not suspicious AT ALL! If anything betfair punters had not realised Judd was getting the attention of the umpires. Sportsbets odds were just crap and set at a poor percentage in-play at the brownlow. If they thought it was rigged and knew Judd was going to win they wouldnt of had him at 26-1 five mins before the count started!! :loon You sir have no clue im sorry :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pretender. Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 C. JUDD @ 1.80 10/10 Judd, will win the brownlow, I will be laying a big stack on him, he's just way higher than any other player.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pretender. Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 JUDD - $1.48 Dropping fast... D. COX to place? $3.40 - I like that :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashit Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Cox is no chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 That is a horrible price for Cox. I wouldnt take 500-1 about him finishing a place. It simply wont happen. If you did your own count you would see there are plenty of people who will 100% finish above him. He wont even be the Eagles leading vote getter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Sounds like you're a nice guy Max... ...a real team player. :eyes How about instead of bad mouthing knowledgable (I can assure you) posters, you put up a few actual opinions of your own. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breakballartist Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Right lads, straight up, no shadow boxing; Juddy will win the Brownlow, wont he? I only get the highlight show here in Ireland, but the guy is pure steel and obviously a League darling. His price is on the floor now, surely the bookies haven't got this all wrong... Put a big stake on at 1.83... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Sounds like you're a nice guy Max... ...a real team player. :eyes How about instead of bad mouthing knowledgable (I can assure you) posters, you put up a few actual opinions of your own. :\ Knowledgeable?? The guy has made 30 posts im not sure you could make a judgement either way on that case. Also i am being a team player. He asked if Cox was a good price the place and im am telling you that price is WAAAAYY too short and no chance of winning. I wold think im being a fairly nice guy in helping him save his money....but hey, if you want everyone to just agree and lose all there money ill play along. Also you said i should put up a few opinions of my own?! I believe i just did sir and i also believe my opinion had more merit than the original post about Cox placing. Also i wasn't bad mouthing him at all, i was pointing out how rubbish the odds for Cox were and how Cox had no chance. Or are we not allowed to have differing opinions here?:unsure I will guarantee you right now Priddis out polls Cox at the West Coast Eagles this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Right lads, straight up, no shadow boxing; Juddy will win the Brownlow, wont he? I only get the highlight show here in Ireland, but the guy is pure steel and obviously a League darling. His price is on the floor now, surely the bookies haven't got this all wrong... Put a big stake on at 1.83... Yeah 3 votes on the weekend has it sown up for him now i feel. His main competition in Pendlebury has dropped off in recent weeks and has now lost touch with Judd i feel. He is a proven vote getter (Probably because he is the greatest midfielder we have ever seen:notworthy) and probably has close to 9 BOG performances this year which would be enough to win him the Brownlow in itself. His closest competition for votes i Sam Mitchell who would probably be 4 votes behind Judd, but he is ineligible for getting a reprimand so no worries there for Judd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Hey Taza if you happened to be reffering to my comments about Ashtee then that is just sad. That guy's comment is complete rubbish with no substance to it at all. He clearly knows VERY LITTLE about Brownlow betting and his comments are just his own slanderous opinion with nothing to even remotely back them up Max, Eaaaaaaaasy, this aint a forum where we start wars against each other mate, just chill a little. Of course you're allowed your own opinion and debate against others, it's just the manner in which we do it that matters. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 I am actually perfectly relaxed. I dont know why people are making me out to be some guy out for a fight. The only comment that made me angry was the comment made by Ashtee saying that the Brownlow Medal was fixed and that the bookies were in on some big setup. That is complete nonsense and i wont take a backwards step on that subject as it is a complete fabrication aimed at the integrity of the AFL and AFL betting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Anyway, for those having a bet Matt Priddis to place is worth a bet if he can pick up another 1 or even 2 BOGs in the final rounds. I currently have him sitting in 5th spot with 16-28 votes. The better bet would be to wait until Top 5 markets come out and back him then as you would probably get about $8-10, and with the Eagles having an easy run home he should be in the winning team which will help his chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Knowledgeable?? The guy has made 30 posts im not sure you could make a judgement either way on that case. . And you at the time had had 38...and a lot of those weren't exactly 'helpful'. :\ You've got your opinions, great. It's not that hard to simply say, "Hey guys, I've been doing my own Brownlow votes, I think Priddis will have the most votes for WC and is a top 5 chance." Say that in the first place instead of ripping someone a new one for having the nerve to suggest Cox was a chance, and everyone's happy. You sure want to hope you're right... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Ease up Taza i never ripped anyone a new one, so relax. All of my comments were about Dean Cox, i never even mentioned the poster who brought it up. I was trying to help by letting you know he has absolutely ZERO chance of finishing a place so he can save his money. I think that is pretty helpful. Im not sure what part of my post annoyed you but if you could point it out i would appreciate it. Also what does me having 38 posts got to do with anything? I never claimed to be a very knowledgable punter on this forum. I simply said you couldnt possibly know that about a guy who has had a total of thirty posts on this forum. He may well infact be very knowledgable but im saying theres no way you could come to that conclusion yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 I suppose it's the "tone" of your posts Max, but anyway let's get on with the job at hand. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 I have Cox down for 3 votes in rounds 1 and 19 1 or 2 in rounds 11 and 18 Then 6 other matches where he is a very slim hope of picking up a vote, i have him polling in most likely 3 of them So at best he gets both 3s and we will say he picks up 2s in the others - thats 10 votes and ill say he even goes as far as to pick up 1 vote in all 6 matches. So all things going perfectly he has 16 votes. Thats still only just got him in the top 10 and extremely unlikely he will get all of those votes as he is not a natural vote getter and has struggled to poll in the past. Add to that i was very generous because he wasnt in the best 3 in some of those matches but i added him as he had a bolters chance of stealing one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibbo14 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Dal Santo to place thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Not without a hope. I have him sitting equal with Priddis at the moment with only Judd, Pendlebury, Murphy and Swan above them (and Mitchell, but he is ineligible). Given Swan can struggle to pick up votes as he is more an accumulator than a game breaker that may bring him back. There is also the chacne that Murphy loses a few votes to Judd and Gibbs. You really need Dal Santo to poll votes in their round one narrow loss to Geelong though (30 disposals) and their round 6 19 point loss to Adeladie where he gathered 29 Disposals. Other than that he had a very quiet start to the year. From round 10 to round 20 though he really kicks in and will poll very well. I expect him to gather votes in 9 of the 10 games with a possible 5 or 6 BOG's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 I would wait and watch the final 3 games. If he plays well and looks like polling in 2 of the matches then i would take a risk on him if you like him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibbo14 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 been really impressed with his last 10 weeks as you say! will he win the St Kilda team votes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Yep he is a shoe in to take out St Kildas most votes. Dal Santo and hayes were brownlow polling machines for the Saints over the last few years and now that there is no Hayes logic says Dal Santo will be favoured heavily. His 2 closest competitors are Goddard and Montagna and both of them have under polled in the past and not gotten the votes people expected. To give you a range for this year i have Goddard polling between 7-15 (Min-Max) and Montagna 8-14. While Dal Santo i have 16-26, so even if both Goddard and Montagna poll the maximum number of votes i think is possible and Dal Santo polls the minimum, Dal Santo still wins by 1 vote. But the margin will be much bigger in reality because as i said Dal Santo polls extremely well in the Brownlow while the others do not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breakballartist Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Yeah 3 votes on the weekend has it sown up for him now i feel. His main competition in Pendlebury has dropped off in recent weeks and has now lost touch with Judd i feel. He is a proven vote getter (Probably because he is the greatest midfielder we have ever seen:notworthy) and probably has close to 9 BOG performances this year which would be enough to win him the Brownlow in itself. His closest competition for votes i Sam Mitchell who would probably be 4 votes behind Judd, but he is ineligible for getting a reprimand so no worries there for Judd Cheers MaxP; good to get an informed insight! As i said, from the highlight show over here, it can be hard to tell. My big stake should = a big steak then so!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 As for Sportsbets odds it is not suspicious AT ALL! If anything betfair punters had not realised Judd was getting the attention of the umpires. Sportsbets odds were just crap and set at a poor percentage in-play at the brownlow. If they thought it was rigged and knew Judd was going to win they wouldnt of had him at 26-1 five mins before the count started!! :loon You sir have no clue im sorry :okMaxi, if they were going to set a book percent THAT POORLY then they wouldn't even be bothering posting a market at all! It's not like Judd was 2.75 with bookmakers playing it extra safe. 1.70 to 3.50 is a price range that simply does not happen. Any truely experienced punter knows that. I'm not sure if you watched a whole lot of footy last year but although Judd's numbers were actually OK he didn't have anywhere near the impact nor work-rate of Swan. Most astute punters weren't the slightest bit interested in 25/1 or even 33/1 that I believe was available. Judd himself was genuinely astonished he won it and that's the first time I've ever witnessed that from a Brownlow winner (as I said above)! Even going back to the seventies when Keith Greig was supposedly a surprise winner, it was actually no surprise to himself and those in the inner sanctum and it was no surprise to me either, having left a game with the opinion he was best-on while media just dished out votes on stats. The one concern I am having with Brownlow the though, is whether umps are peaking at stats nowadays and not so much on true effectiveness. For example ten Simon Black effective disposals is not necessarily the same as ten from another player. It doesn't hurt to take a step back and look at things new sometimes rather than simply binding yourself to old beliefs. Things clearly changing. Big money is rolling it's way in - you only have to look at how the CEO's pay compares to less than a decade ago :loon. If you understand psychology well enough and know how the left brain interacts with the right and how that manifests itself through society then you will start to consider that it is possible that I have some clue on this afterall. Values like loyalty and love for the guernsey are gradually being eroded and someone's buying that out in favour of the likes of control and ownership - loyalty & love are a right brain thing while control & ownership are a left brain thing. I can clearly see this and 2010 was a year where it seemed obvious some statements were being made in this regard, from Akermanis to Knights to a suspicious Brownlow. The fact is, unless you have a clue about 'deeper psychology' it is going to be difficult to even contemplate this stuff. Many will simply tend to believe they know best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 JUDD - $1.48 Dropping fast... D. COX to place? $3.40 - I like that :hope Good luck pretender. He's had an excellent year. If the umps recognize that, then he should poll well. He's certainly high up in the coaches award. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 Maxi, if they were going to set a book percent THAT POORLY then they wouldn't even be bothering posting a market at all! It's not like Judd was 2.75 with bookmakers playing it extra safe. 1.70 to 3.50 is a price range that simply does not happen. Any truely experienced punter knows that. I'm not sure if you watched a whole lot of footy last year but although Judd's numbers were actually OK he didn't have anywhere near the impact nor work-rate of Swan. Most astute punters weren't the slightest bit interested in 25/1 or even 33/1 that I believe was available. Judd himself was genuinely astonished he won it and that's the first time I've ever witnessed that from a Brownlow winner (as I said above)! Even going back to the seventies when Keith Greig was supposedly a surprise winner, it was actually no surprise to himself and those in the inner sanctum and it was no surprise to me either, having left a game with the opinion he was best-on while media just dished out votes on stats. The one concern I am having with Brownlow the though, is whether umps are peaking at stats nowadays and not so much on true effectiveness. For example ten Simon Black effective disposals is not necessarily the same as ten from another player. It doesn't hurt to take a step back and look at things new sometimes rather than simply binding yourself to old beliefs. Things clearly changing. Big money is rolling it's way in - you only have to look at how the CEO's pay compares to less than a decade ago :loon. If you understand psychology well enough and know how the left brain interacts with the right and how that manifests itself through society then you will start to consider that it is possible that I have some clue on this afterall. Values like loyalty and love for the guernsey are gradually being eroded and someone's buying that out in favour of the likes of control and ownership - loyalty & love are a right brain thing while control & ownership are a left brain thing. I can clearly see this and 2010 was a year where it seemed obvious some statements were being made in this regard, from Akermanis to Knights to a suspicious Brownlow. The fact is, unless you have a clue about 'deeper psychology' it is going to be difficult to even contemplate this stuff. Many will simply tend to believe they know best. A pissed Adam Cooney the night he won the Brownlow says hi :ok I know im supposed to be nice apparently now, but i could actually feel myself getting dumber as i read that! That is the biggest load of drivel i have heard since.........your first post in this thread. I follow AFL EXTREMELY closely and the Brownlow in particular. Your comments comparing Judd and Swan are laughable. Judd didnt have the statistical year that Swan did last year but Judd clearly dominated in all of Carltons early wins and was far more effective with ball in hand. Swan is an accumulator! He just gets the quick easy touches and is not very effective with his disposal. All of the mug money went on to Swan last year because everyone just got caught up in the stats and thought all those 35 possession games equalled 3 votes :lol The ASTUTE punters were actually all over Judd, not so much for the win but most played it safe and went big on Judd to finish top 3 as that was a lock! Your comments about psychology have no merit behind them either. They have no relevance at all. Im sure someone will have a go at me for trying to start a war or what ever again but i need to point out how wrong these comments are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 The ASTUTE punters were actually all over Judd' date=' not so much for the win but most played it safe and went big on Judd to finish top 3 as that was a lock![/quote']So, he had such an IMPACT year yet astute punters only played the top-3 while virtually ignoring a juicy 33/1? :eek I'm not sure how experienced you really are Whiz but a lock for top-3 isn't going to be left sitting there at 33/1 or 25/1, unless of course there was long odds-on favourite which wasn't the case. I actually agree with your theory about people getting caught up in stats. It's being going on for long time. As I mentioned earlier about players winning media awards from votes given on stats. I actually watched most games last year and am having trouble agreeing with your Swan-Judd assessment. That's fine, your entuitled to that opinion. One thing I did notice though was a lot of people jumping out of the woodwork to say how good he is/was based on or in defense of him winning yet it was clear they hadn't watched enough of it. I'm suggesting that is more about the power of the belief rather than good judgement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 A pissed Adam Cooney the night he won the Brownlow says hi :okYou demonstrate your lack of insight to psychology there' date=' Whiz. Judd last year is the ONLY player I have observed who was [u']genuinely astonished he won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: Brownlow 2011 So' date= he had such an IMPACT year yet astute punters only played the top-3 while virtually ignoring a juicy 33/1? :eek I'm not sure how experienced you really are Whiz but a lock for top-3 isn't going to be left sitting there at 33/1 or 25/1, unless of course there was long odds-on favourite which wasn't the case. I actually agree with your theory about people getting caught up in stats. It's being going on for long time. As I mentioned earlier about players winning media awards from votes given on stats. I actually watched most games last year and am having trouble agreeing with your Swan-Judd assessment. That's fine, your entuitled to that opinion. One thing I did notice though was a lot of people jumping out of the woodwork to say how good he is/was based on or in defense of him winning yet it was clear they hadn't watched enough of it. I'm suggesting that is more about the power of the belief rather than good judgement. If you have a crystal ball that can tell the future please by all means tell us but most people dont. He was by no means a certainty to win the award but top 3 looked a good thing and many, many astute punters took that place bet. People still had smaller bets on Judd to win the whole thing but the astute money was on Judd to place. Im guessing you are either a Collingwood supporter or did our dough on Dane Swan last year lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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