Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

[Crouch Potato]

Second Major of the year tees off on Thursday at the Congressional Country Club. (7574 yards, Par 71). For those E/W punters out there, Paddy are going 6 places. I'm sure a few will be following suit. 156 Player Field here. This course is reported to play very long, a fact that defending champion Graeme McDowell emphasized after he first inspected the course. This is going to give the really long hitters an advantage and I've used this as my 'angle' for the event. Bubba Watson @ 50 Betfair Also: Lowest Round Score of Event @ 56 Sportingbet Few hit it longer than Bubba Watson. In addition to ranking in the top 3 for Driving Distance, Bubba also leads GIR for the year. He has already won twice this year and enters the tournament with good momentum. Also going for him to shoot the lowest round score of the event. If Bubba hits the fairways he could easily go on a streak that a lot of other players in this field just wont be capable of due to the length. This potentially narrows the shortlist of possible winners for this market. Padraig Harrington @ 85 Betfair Harrington has the experience of winning a Major Championship which will surely hold him in good stead here. Coming off an injury so there are some question marks but these odds were too good for me to pass up. Only rank 46th in Driving Distance but ranks Top 10 in Carry Distance, which could prove more important as I've read some reports that the fairways might not offer a lot of kick. Alvaro Quiros @ 100 Betfair Also: Lowest Round Score of Event @ 101 Sportingbet Quiros is just about the biggest hitter in the game and if can bring his A game, then few Tournaments will reward him as well as this one. There are some fairly big doubts as to whether he can put together 4 rounds on a very tough course, but at these odds and with his abilities, it's not enough of a concern to put me off backing him. Also taking him for the Lowest Round Score of the Event, which I really like. But for Jason Day's 3rd Round 64 he would have won co-won this market after his opening round at the Masters. Given the length of this course, Quiros' having a good 18 holes is likely to give him a better score than almost every other player who plays equally well to their ability. Max stake on the Lowest Round Event bet. Now, over to Hornet for the Hornet Criteria!

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Its the usual two suspects for me RORY McILROY i have backed him e/w at 25's 22's & 20's in this. As i said before i''m convinced he will win at least one major this year. Although he has added pressure to himself by blowing a big lead in the masters he had a nice place two weeks ago in prep for this and will be thereabouts in this imo. RETIEF GOOSEN i've backed e/w at 66's more likely a place than win but is capable of winning another major imo. Finished joint 3rd at the weekend should have really finished third on his own but for a bit of a lack luster last round imo. Always capable of a very low round when he's on it. GOOD LUCK ALL.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

Now, over to Hornet for the Hornet Criteria!

Thanks for that introduction CP! Just finalising the Hornet Criteria but the biggest problem I've found is that both E-Tour and PGA Tour players are involved...and there are a limited number of statistics on the E-Tour website compared to the PGA Tour website. I've put in place 10 criteria at the moment which is robust and is a very good profile; however, it still leaves 13 players (not all at short odds to be fair) but I'm not sure I want that many players...will have a little look and a bit more work on it and be back later with any finalised plans! :ok

[Dougal]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) As usual with a US Open this is going to be a tough, tough week, Alex Noren has described Congressional as ‘brutal but fair’. With the course playing over 7500 yards and greens running at around 14 on the stimpmeter it’s not going to be for the fainthearted. I’m with Martin Kaymer though, there’s any one of about 40 players with a chance this week and that makes it bloody difficult to find a winner. 1^st round leader - Sergio Garcia e/w @ 60/1 Boylesports Oh Sergio, poor Sergio. What the golfing gods gave him with one hand, they took away with the other. Blessed with a ball striking ability that few can match, he’s cursed with a putting stroke that few would want. I wouldn’t trust him to keep it together for four days but he shown glimpses of his real class this year, at both the Crowne Plaza and HP Byron Nelson he opened with a 66 before falling away and I think he’s a decent price to make another fast start. Brandt Jobe e/w @ 125/1 Boylesports Jobe comes into this in a great frame of mind after closing with a 65 at the Memorial to place T2. Like Garcia I wouldn’t think he can last the distance but he could get off to a fast start on a tough course. Jobe drives the ball plenty long and is ranked 4^th in total driving, he’s a good long iron player and with positive thoughts and a nice morning tee time he could come out of the blocks quickly. Outright betting KJ Choi e/w @ 33/1 Bet 365 I have to admit I thought Choi was perhaps over the hill and on the decline but he’s win at the Players will have given him a real boost and massive injection of confidence. That was one of five top 10 finishes this season and Choi has the right character for the US Open, he’s tough, unflappable and can grind it out with the best of them. KJ has also won at Congressional, winning the AT&T there back in 2007, the course has been changed since then but it’s still got good memories for him. He also has an excellent short game, ranked with the best in scrambling and sand saves he seems to have sorted out the putting problems that had hindered him for the last couple of years. He’s threatened to win a major a few times and this could well be the year he delivers. Angel Cabrera e/w @ 100/1 PaddyPower I love the fact that the only two tournaments Cabrera has won in the US have been majors. It’s pointless looking at stats with the big guy, he could well turn up and shoot 15 over par, miss the cut by a mile and stalk off in a giant huff. Equally he could have a week where he hits it out of the screws, keeps his head together and makes his third win the US his third major. Proved at Oakmont that he can win on brutally long and tough courses, at this big price I’ll take the chance that El Pato has a good week. Matt Kuchar e/w @ 25/1 Paddypower Kuchar’s has made every cut this year with eight top-10 finishes. Leads the PGA Tour in the all-around category and is 16th in fairways, 12th in greens, 31st in putting and second in bogey avoidance. He looks like a player who is ready to win his first major, he always seems pretty unflappable on the course and that could stand him in good stead this week. Gary Woodland e/w @ 100/1 Boylesports Woodland left it late to secure his spot, only getting it after making the world’s top 40 after Memorial. He’s got the potential to go well here though, super long off the tee and with good GIR stats, if he can keep it on the cut stuff a decent amount of time then he has a chance. I’m not completely sold on his short game and putting but I like his attitude, he really seems to have his head screwed on and after five top-10 finishes this season should be full of confidence. Although short on Tour experience this is his 3rd US Open so he knows what to expect.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) I'll just make a quick rundown of the criteria that the US Open Champs usually follow...however, due to the number of players that fit this (13) I wont be making these plays official hornet criteria plays! I could probably add a couple of things to it to cut players out but I prefer to keep the criteria logical rather than speculative. For this tournament, I looked at the past 20 winners as I thought this would give a decent and pretty firm profile considering the course changes every year. 1) 42 years old or younger - last 20 winners 2) Top 100 in OWGR - last 20 winners 3) At least 1 win on the European or PGA Tour - last 20 winners 4) At least 1 top 10 in last 5 tournaments - last 19 winners 5) At least 4 top 25s this year - last 20 winners 6) Has previously finished in the top 25 in a major - last 20 winners 7) Played at the US Open previously - last 20 winners 8) Top 60 for Total Driving either in year of win or previous full year - last 20 years 9) Top 50 for putting inside 5ft (or for E-Tour players, the One Putts category) in year of win or previous full year - last 9 winners (stat isnt recording before this) 10) Top 40 in scoring average in year of win or previous full year - last 20 years In these last 20 years there have been a fair big odds winners (80/1+)including G-Mac, Lucas Glover, Steve Jones, Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, Geoff Ogilvy and Lee Janzen - however, every single one of these conformed to all of the above criteria. The 13 players who fit the above criteria (and I will be making my final few picks from) are below: Bill Haas @ 100s Brandt Snedeker @ 66s Geoff Ogilvy @ 80s G-Mac @ 50s Ian Poulter @ 66s Lee Westwood @ 14s Luke Donald @ 14s Martin Kaymer @ 33s Martin Laird @ 125s Matt Kuchar @ 25s Retief Goosen @ 60s Rory McIlroy @ 22s Zach Johnson @ 100s Sorry it cant be more specific but hopefully this will help a few of you pick out a few players! GL :ok

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Ok, bearing in mind a lot of the talk about how open this tournament is, I've gone for bookmakers offering 6 places, and players who can get in the mix at big prices. I do think this is one of Westwood or Donald's time, I just cant take them at 12s or 14s in a tournament where one bad hole can really stack up. I'm taking 3 guys who conform to all of the above criteria, and 2 others who I feel are just too big a price! Bill Haas @ 100s ew BoyleSports Definitely the most underrated 20-something who has flourished since the beginning of 2010 - 40 tournaments have brought him 2 wins, 2 runner ups and 9 top 10s overall. His form this year has continued his upward curve with 5 top 10s in 15 tournaments and more recently 2 top 10s in his last 4 tournaments. This includes a top 5 at the Wells Fargo Champs which is always a good indicator of how players will fare in the Majors. His stats for key areas are phenomenal as well - top 15 in Total Driving (14th), GIR (7th), Ball Striking (4th), putting inside 5ft (11th), GIR from other than fairway (4th), scrambling from the rough (9th) and All Around Ranking (8th). Basically, at 3 figures I love this play...so have no doubt he'll miss the cut!! Ian Poulter @ 66s ew ToteSport Poults is a player who I really like; he has incredible fighting spirit that was epitomized by his win in the Match Play a few weeks back where he came back from the dead again Westwood, Molinari and Colsaerts before beating the world no.1 and World Match Play Champion! He has 11 European Tour wins so can clearly do the business, and despite what people may think, he is playing well at the moment. His top 20 in the BMW was very impressive bearing in mind he had previously finished no better than 33rd and missed the cut there 7 times in his 9 visits!! Poults is accurate off the tee and without a doubt one of the best putters in the world; if he gets in the mix he wont be afraid to finish the job. Zach Johnson @ 100s ew BetFred This year, Zach Johnson has been slow to come to the boil, however, in his last 4 tournaments he has truly come to life with 3 top 12s including a 6th place in the Wells Fargo Champs. While short off the tee, he has proven with his Masters win (and further top 10s in the '09 and '10 USPGA) that he has the game for the majors. Johnson is currently top 10 on the PGA Tour for accuracy off the tee, putting, and scrambling which are vital to any US Open campaign. Johnson is a player who has proved time and time again that he can win tournaments (6 in his last 5 years) and with a Masters already under his belt, theres no way he should be 3 figures. Angel Cabrera @ 100s ew PaddyPower Cabrera may not fit all the criteria, but he is clearly a guy who primes his game for the Majors. His best finish this year? 7th at the Masters. Having won 2 majors (including the US Open), and with 7 other top 10s in Major tournaments, theres no doubting that he can do the business in elite company at the toughest courses; however, he is a player who you just need to get a bit lucky with! His game was in decent shape last time out finishing top 25 at the Memorial and another one who at 3 figures I just cant resist! Johan Edfors @ 250s ew PaddyPower Ok, I cant say I've seen anyone else mentioning Johan which is unsurprising considering how wayward he generally is off the tee, however, his form is pretty much unrivalled at the moment with improving figures of 9-7-4 in his last 3 tournaments (includes in elite company in the BMW PGA) which shows that he is fine form. While he hasnt won since 2006 on the European Tour (when he won 3 times), he did win in 2009 on the Asian Tour so he has won tournaments before. Having seen his best friend on tour (Alex Noren) win in his last tournament and with three consecutive top 10s, I feel that the 250s could be made to look very very silly! GL :ok

[LAMPS]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) great preview as always Hornet, do you not fancy Bubba Watson at all given how long this course is. Backing a huge driver like Bubba can only be a good thing right? Already a two time winner this season and at 50/1 with 6 places available he seems a very nice bet to me E/W. However saying that not many are mentioning his name, he's been off the boil a bit recently not really challenging but maybe he was holding back for this "big one" Am i missing something that everyone can see as to why his names not really mentioned? :\

[Bobbyhead]

Hunter Mahan for me. Took 25/1 the other day in Betfred ew 1st 6 places. Seems to have a liking for the course,in AT + T(2nd,12th & 8th) in recent years. That 2nd in 2009 included a 62 final round,which left him just 1 shot behind eventual winner Tiger. Fair form of late too(last 4 in top 20). Best of luck guys ...

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

great preview as always Hornet, do you not fancy Bubba Watson at all given how long this course is. Backing a huge driver like Bubba can only be a good thing right? Already a two time winner this season and at 50/1 with 6 places available he seems a very nice bet to me E/W. However saying that not many are mentioning his name, he's been off the boil a bit recently not really challenging but maybe he was holding back for this "big one" Am i missing something that everyone can see as to why his names not really mentioned? :\

Good point LAMPS...I actually took Bubba @ 66s a couple of months ago with SkyBet (I remember writing about it on the PGA Tour thread briefly) so I couldnt put anyone off backing him; however, he has gone off the boil a bit recently so who knows how he'll do as with the US Open you really do need to be all over all parts of your game. The good thing about Bubba, however, is that he seems to have learned how to finish tournaments as shown by his 3 wins in the last year; compare this to: Hunter Mahan (25s) who can only win coming off the pace (ie not in contention), Rory McIlroy (22s) who has blown a lot of leads and needs not to realise he's in contention, Luke Donald (14s) with two strokeplay wins in 6(?)years, Matt Kuchar (25s) seems to be the new Luke Donald in terms of cashing loads but never winning etc etc Seems @ 50s you've got a decent bet! The one thing you cant have at the US Open is a shaky nerve, or you will be destroyed. Bubba seems to have gotten over it a bit more recently, and as you said, he's a massive hitter, great GIR, 2 time winner this season...add in his top 5 in the US Open and USPGA runner up and theres no doubt he really could be up there. Of course I could be speaking rubbish but just my two cents! :ok

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Anyone know how / who picks the groups? Obviously a few of the worlds best are always thrown together, Donald, Westwood and Kaymer this year but definitely a nationalty them here this year!? The three Italian m's together, Asian origin group Kim, Ishikawa and Yang, swedes, Jacobson, Stenson and Edfors and my fave If I was there, following a group would be the 3 amigos, Jiminez, Garcia and Quiros!! I guess if they group such players they get better crowds and playing with compatriots might lead to better golf? More relaxed etc??

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) No idea who picks the groups, sorry. You can bet it's done to maximize interest though. Even at the Masters they had the young players together (Day, Rory & Rickie). Two more for me to round out the tournament: Webb Simpson (151 Bwin best price) Webb Simpson has been playing really good golf this year. But for a misplaced rule he would have won a tournament. Instead he has two 2nd placed finishes, including a playoff loss to Bubba. He's due some luck and this is just the kind of stage that could fittingly give him the maiden win he so richly deserves. Greg Chalmers @ 470 Betfair Not a big hitter by any stretch but given how tough the US Open will likely be I couldn't resist taking a players like Chalmers. He ranks 4th in scrambling for the year, 2nd in total putting and Top 5 in all key putting stats (3rd in putting inside 5 feet at 98.09%, 3rd in putting between 5-15 feet at 53.29% and first in strokes gained putting and 3-putt avoidance). At odds well into the triple digits, I feel he's worth a spec.

[Striker]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Good Luck Lads Kevin Streelman @ 200-1 [Ladbrokes] No way should a player with his form figures [7,10,19] be these odds

[Psycho]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Just one for me and will play the safe one. Well, at least I look at it that way. So... Lee Westwood to make Top 5 finish. 3.75 @ Skybet Played the same stuff in Masters and lost because Westwood was poor in the first two rounds and could not save it in the end. He's been very good in majors over past two years and is due to have one sooner rather than later. He has been third in US Open 3 years ago and with Tiger not playing this time around everybody feels like they have a genuine chance to do some damage. Westwood certainly is one of them.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Have taken a bit of 25's 0n Rory Mac with SJ to be 1st round leader as he has a habit of being quick out of the blocks and price generous imo.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) 3 for me initially. 1pt ew KJ Choi to win US Open 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 1-6) KJ Choi went to the next level when he won the Players Championship last month and while Congressional is a much different course to Sawgrass he's won around here in the AT&T National. Ok the course this week will be different to the one he played then but the positive vibes of the environment and the knowledge that it's a good place for him will count for something. Length is a bit of an issue with KJ but nothing else is. He's straight as a die, got a decent short game, putts well and keeps the errors to a minimum. He wasn't a million miles away at Augusta and now that he knows he has the game to win on the biggest stage with the Players effectively the 5th major, I think we'll see a bold showing from KJ on a course with aside from the length isn't set up too badly for him. He has a caddie in Andy Prodger who knows how to win majors. That can help and I think we'll see KJ in the mix over the weekend. 1pt ew J.Furyk to win US Open 60/1 Skybet (1/4 1-6) It's hard to ignore a former champion at a price like this. Ok sure Jim's not shown the form which won him the Fed Ex Cup last year but he hasn't been a million miles away some weeks. Around here in the AT&T Nationals he's been dynamite finishing 3rd, 3rd and 7th in the three years it was played here. He's experienced enough in the game of golf that he was around when the open was last held here in 97. He was 5th then and I think all is set up for another decent showing from the wonky swinged wonder. What I like most about Furyk is the course doctor/modifier at Congressional is someone called Rees Jones and nobody has a better stroke average than Furyk on courses designed or modified by him. That could be important knowing how the course will play this week and if it gives him a one shot advantage over the field who knows it might be enough. Furyk knows how to win this. He's been runner up twice since he won it in 2003 and with the straight hitting and good putting if he can light a spark this week he could go a long way towards a 2nd major. 1pt ew B.Snedeker to win US Open 60/1 Paddy Power (1/4 1-6) Brandt Snedeker hasn't won a major in his career yet but he's knocked on the door enough times. In the last 3 US Open's he's got an 8th and a 9th on his record so he hasn't been far away. He's already picked up a win on Tour this season when he won The Heritage, edging out none other than Luke Donald. His record around Congressional in the AT&T National is decent as well with 5th and 8th placed finishes. Snedeker is another American who has the game for this particular tournament and given his form this season I think this could be the week he breaks into the real big time by landing or going closer than ever to landing his first major championship.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Whoops and one other. 1pt N.Colsaerts Top Continental European 25/1 Stan James (1/5 1-4) I'll take a punt here because I don't think there's a standout runner in this field. Martin Kaymer looks a weak favourite with his form not good at the minute. Robert Karlsson went well last week but I don't necessarily think that means he'll go well this week. Peter Hanson has a decent US Open record and I've covered him with a small stake but the one I'm prepared to chance at a proper stake is the Belgian Nicolas Colsaerts. He's making his debut in this tournament but he's riding high at the minute having won the China Open and mixed it in the World Matchplay before finding Poulter's fighting spirit too much to handle in extra holes but he drives the ball a long long way and more often than not it's straight. He appears to have a good short game and we saw in the Matchplay that he can hole clutch putts. He's a long shot here but I certainly think if the occasion of a major championship doesn't get to him that a place is up for grabs here. If this does turn into a bombers feast then he's got that covered and with winning momentum behind him I think he's worth a play at 25's.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

Have taken a bit of 25's 0n Rory Mac with SJ to be 1st round leader as he has a habit of being quick out of the blocks and price generous imo.

A few players still to complete looks like the little pocket rocket has claimed 1st round honours again :nana:nana looks like taken a healthy 3shot lead into day two. C/mon sunshines lets blow the bleeding doors off:hope:hope...must have a wee look to see if any silly prices on BF to be 2nd round leader sniff sniff.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

A few players still to complete looks like the little pocket rocket has claimed 1st round honours again :nana:nana looks like taken a healthy 3shot lead into day two. C/mon sunshines lets blow the bleeding doors off:hope:hope...must have a wee look to see if any silly prices on BF to be 2nd round leader sniff sniff.

well done Ted, as you know i'm often on Rory but didnt get my act toigether this year with ascot in the way just looking now at the prices for the tourney before posting up

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Just had a small EW bet on Zach Johnson who at 80/1 with Hills looks capable of at least a top 4 place. Started with an even par round yesterday so well in contention Finished well in his last 4 tournaments and ended under par. Is a major winner and due a big result after his excellent 2009. Accuracy is key and Zach has this in abundance. The price is 20pts bigger than the other bookis offering 60's. 1pt ew 80/1 Hills Zach Johnson

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Nice work Ted. :clap That's 2.5 out of the last 4 Majors that Rory has led after 1st Round. Wish he didn't have to shoot so low though... ruins my lowest event bets :spank

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Great start Ted and Dougal, albeit tied 3rd for Garcia. :clap

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Good start Ted...hopefully a sign of things to come for the rest of the week for the thread!! :ok

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Great shout Ted :clap:clap. Hope you got a few quid on for the 2nd round too because the young lad looks like he's playing on a different course to the rest of the field :eek. Will be interesting to see how he goes over the weekend and if he can hold on. I always believed when he wins a major it'll be from behind with a good final round but if he maintains a margin of this size he's probably got a Masters like cock up in hand of the field.

[LAMPS]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) McIlroy now 1.40 to lay on the exchanges, he's making it look very easy out there can't see him losing unless he has two horror rounds back to back. Yang currently second is available at 35's :lol so far it looks like we are playing for place money :gimme

[Striker]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Webb Simpson making a charge in the 3rd round, 4 under through 12 holes

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) Am I the only one who thinks there are legs left in this? I was on Yang EW before the off and think he is in good shape. Admittedly Mcilroy has played blinding but that double bogey on 18 shows even he has mastered the course yet. I can see a +3 from Rory and a -3 from the Cool as cucumber Korean to setup a cracking Sunday!! :hope

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) I kind of agree with you mate. I'm not sure the pairing with Yang is a good one for Rory whereas I'm very happy with Zach alongside Snedeker :ok.

[Spooner]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19) 11/8 with VC a good bet on Yang (DNB) to beat Mcilory in the 2-balls then? Yang's been solid but Rory's playing out of his skin. :eek

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

11/8 with VC a good bet on Yang (DNB) to beat Mcilory in the 2-balls then? Yang's been solid but Rory's playing out of his skin. :eek

Hadn't even thought about it, but you've got me interested! IMO Rory hasn't won a major yet because he doesn't do this for 4 rounds... Masters being an example. As Kev alluded to, Rory seems better at coming from behind in the final couple of rounds, Quail hollow style. Yang having won a major before knows the score and has less pressure and attention on him. I just can't see Rory tearing the course up 4 rounds in a row... A 3 putt here and there and a dabble with the water are all possible... Where as Yang is unlikely to shoot -6 or -7 but I'd fancy him for a steady -2 or -3 today. Just my thoughts.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: US Open (June 16-19)

11/8 with VC a good bet on Yang (DNB) to beat Mcilory in the 2-balls then? Yang's been solid but Rory's playing out of his skin. :eek

Just lost the paragraph I wrote on my phone... Basically I think it's s good bet! Sorry, too lazy to write it again, basically less pressure and attention on calm Yang. Hothead Rory may take on too many tougher pins today...