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Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season


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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Crawley 5.5!? :lol..Blimey..see they had bids for Charlie Lee and Whepdale from Peterborough accepted but both players rejected the move, they would have been cracking signings. Both came to us on loan last season and were our best players at that time by a country mile particuarly Whepdale, Hess was interested in getting them both but I would be staggered if we do as we have no money and a team that is looking worse by the day.. This league was beyond crap last season and the fact that Stevenage got promoted was as baffling as it was unexpected as they looked bloody awful to me. Any team in this league that has money will have a fair chance, Crawley obviously have bucketloads of it currently, it won't last too long unless the crowds increase significantly, but it wouldn't be a surprise at all if they won the league at a canter next season with what looks (based on last season) like a cracking squad..just look at what Notts County did a couple of years ago, just because they had a few quid. Swindon could prob go either way, Di Canio could be a cracking get with his contacts at Spurs, West Ham and Italian clubs..if they could get some young players in on loan with any minor level of ability they will probably have the league won by Christmas :lol, either that or he will be gone by October. Any club with ambition who is willing to put a few quid in will stand a good chance as the standard of most of the teams is bloody awful..and budgets are only going one way for most of us. Fancy Shrewsbury too, good noises coming out of there, a few quality signings like they are talking about and they will certainly be challenging as they were already one of the better sides and threw away promotion in the end. Gills are in freefall the only thing we had going for us last year was McDonald and Akinfenwa up front and both have now gone along with attacking winger Barcham who will go to someone in league one. Budget has been reduced as I mentioned, fans are pissed off at Scally as he continues to take 200k a year for living in Dubai and doing bugger all for the club apart from increasing debt and selling our ground (thanks for that)..we currently don't have a goalkeeper either apart from a fat kid from the youth team who has been given a contract. Still, early days I guess plenty of time for new signings..certainly not expecting us to be challenging at the top of the league next season, we are a poor footballing side who have lost our best players with little to no money to reinforce.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season I think Stevenage look worse than they actually are. I was never that impressed with them the year before when they won the BSP but actually they just dont play pretty football, but what they do is not concede goals and you have to admit they do that very well. Crawley were a bit unlucky not to go through last season unbeaten and given they have improved the squad already I cant see past them not winning. Also worth remembering they outplayed Torquay in the FA Cup and given they ended up in the play-offs it shows that even last season they had a team that would have gone close to winning League 2. As for their crowds they already have gone up. They were getting over 3000 per game in the later part of last season and there ground only holds around 4000 so not much scope for it to go higher. Id imagine they will get over 3000 for most matches next year.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Imo betting on the Football League before November is a wild guess, so I'll wait till then to get a better sense of who's doing well and who's not, as a team can be fighting relegation one year and win the league the next. Good luck to anyone who does bet on the FL though.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season As I'm new, I'm wary of putting anything up as a 'tip' as such, for fear of making a holy show of myself :D, but I've backed two in this division today (though both have already been touched on briefly above). Obivously it's very early and there's a lot of transfer dealings to be done which could have a massive impact on prices, but that's the chance you take with antepost. Shrewsbury to be promoted from League 2 11/4 (Betfred) Shrewsbury have made the playoffs 3 times in the last 5 years, reaching 2 finals in 06/07 and 08/09 and obviously losing out in the semis last season - in my opinion they possess the quality to get out of this division. In Graham Turner, they've got a manager who is not only a legend at the club, having been at the club for a total of 16 years as a player/manager and led them to the 3rd Division title in his first spell as manager, but also a promotion magnet. Aside from his league title with Shrews, Turner guided Wolves to successive promotions in 87/88 and 88/99 to take them from Division 3 to Division 1. Furthermore, despite being in charge when they were relegated from the football league, he rebuilt the Hereford squad and not only got them back in to the league in 05/06, but then steered them to promotion to League 1, for the first time in 30 years, in 07/08. Unfortunately, he couldn't keep Hereford there and he has ended up back at Shrewsbury where, in his first full season in charge, he guided them to a 4th place finish, 1 point from automatic promotion. The Town squad isn't exactly brimming with individual brilliance, but that means that, whilst potential contenders like Rotherham and Crewe are fighting to keep their star assets, Shrewsbury look like being able to keep the bulk of their squad together. Add this to Turner's form for using the loan market to devastating effect and I fancy them to go one better this season. Gillingham to be relegated from League 2 25/1 (Coral) I feel a bit bad putting this up, as a Gillingham fan has posted above, but my reasoning tallies with what he has said, so I'm hoping he won't take too much offence :D. A mate of mine is a Tranmere fan and, after Gillingham's relegation to League 2, he told me to back them to go down again because they were one of the worst sides he had seen. I must admit, I didn't, and I did notice that they started to pick up away wins, something that had deserted them in League 1. However, Akinfenwa and McDonald contributed over 50% of the goals the Gills scored in the league last season, with only 1 other player in the squad scoring more than 5 goals. Losing one striker of such importance can often set a club back a bit, losing 2 will be catastrophic unless some serious rebuilding can be done.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Only a cursory look at these odds but Crawley are well too short - I would be laying but I ain't much of a fan of tying up bundles of cash. Assembling a side capable of winning the Conference is possible, but the parallels are not the same for getting out of League Two. Looking at their squad, I don't see the quality justifying the odds - obviously that was different last season. It's not as if they have signed players who could easily play a league above - I don't think Wesley Thomas or Akinde would be great shakes at League One level, and then there are a fair amount of players who, for me are solid L2 merchants. I'm amazed at Dagenham's odds, although this is clearly pricing in that some of their better players will leave; Still had them punching massively above their weight to be even in with a shout, and rather annoyingly, he has the ability to come up with some more non-league gems. Getting relegated was no disgrace and I think the bulk of the players will stay and be better players after their year at a higher level. Their style isn't pretty but certainly very effective for this level.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Crawley already had players more than good enough for this league and I think the signing of Akinde was a superb one. I dont know much about Thomas but given he scored plenty in League 2 last season he looks a decent buy. Its easier to get out of League 2 than the BSP as there are 4 promotion places to go for compared to just 2 in the BSP. Look at what the promoted sides have done in previous years as well and Crawley have to be the strongest team yet to have gained promotion. Also worth considering that come Jan they will be in a strong position to get new players whereas the others wont have as much money to do that.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

Crawley already had players more than good enough for this league and I think the signing of Akinde was a superb one. I dont know much about Thomas but given he scored plenty in League 2 last season he looks a decent buy. Its easier to get out of League 2 than the BSP as there are 4 promotion places to go for compared to just 2 in the BSP. Look at what the promoted sides have done in previous years as well and Crawley have to be the strongest team yet to have gained promotion. Also worth considering that come Jan they will be in a strong position to get new players whereas the others wont have as much money to do that.
Agree about Akinde, read a few good reviews about him. He tore Brighton apart in the 4-3 game between them and Dagenham last season. Done well at Wycombe when he last played at this level as well.
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

Crawley already had players more than good enough for this league and I think the signing of Akinde was a superb one. I dont know much about Thomas but given he scored plenty in League 2 last season he looks a decent buy. Its easier to get out of League 2 than the BSP as there are 4 promotion places to go for compared to just 2 in the BSP. Look at what the promoted sides have done in previous years as well and Crawley have to be the strongest team yet to have gained promotion. Also worth considering that come Jan they will be in a strong position to get new players whereas the others wont have as much money to do that.
No disrespect - but the market isn't for promotion, but for outright winner? It's irrespective how many promotion places are up for grabs in this context. If we were talking about the 'to be promoted' market I wouldn't want to oppose Crawley because of all the promotion spots available. I don't deny that Crawley will probably be fine and I reckon they may be a tip for the play-offs. But out of interest, how many of the promoted sides have actually gone on to get a double promotion, even League Two winners? Chances are they'll be able to add to their squad in January - or chances are the money may have run out. I'd cite the case of Notts County, who also were in a similar position last year having caned the back end of last season - with anonymous funders, you just don't know when the shit is going to hit the fan. I agree Akinde is a good player for this level, but is he a a cut above such as Tubbs was in the Conference? I don't think so - it's hardly as if they had gone and got Will Hoskins or Adam Le Fondre (either of which would be the L2 equivalent of signing Richard Brodie for £275,000).
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season I know exactly what the market is for but I was just pointing out how much easier it is to get promoted which is what you were talking about. In my view Crawley had a side that would have held there own in League 1 last year. Not sure of the exact double promotion numbers but obviously Stevenage did it this year. You mention Notts County's money ran out but didnt they also win the league? Im with south eastern ram on Akinde. I watched him a fair bit when he was at Ebbsfleet and it was clear how good a player he was, I think him and Tubbs will be a fantastic partnership in this league. If Crawley did pay £275000 for Brodie (its a figure that has been suggested was actually a fair bit lower than that) then it was a bad buy and it speaks volumes theyve loaned him out for a season. Also Akinde and Thomas were both on a free so in my view thats pretty good value for money. There really isnt that big a step up from the BSP to League 2.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Crawley offered us £225k for Keane with another £75k if they won the league so I can quite believe the fee they paid for Brodie was around the £275k mark. I can't see them getting crowds of 3000+ once the novelty wears off. Admittedly Man Utd were playing Chelsea on the same night but they only managed 3400 on the night they lifted the title and we made up a fair few of those. With Brighton in Falmer now I'd imagine that would impact on attendances as well. They'll be there or thereabouts if they are left alone and their finances don't fall apart but 9/2 to win it? Not for me. The good thing with them being in it is there will be value elsewhere. If Plymouth can get their house in order they could be a decent price but I'll wait and see what happens there first.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Christ, I know I said we probably wouldn't have a good season but I didn't expect people to tip us for the drop! :lol..if we did go down it would probably be the end of the club, the club messageboards are full of doom and gloom currently, I note the comment about 50% of our goals coming from Akinfenwa and McDonald and I'm surprised it's that low tbh, but I can make you feel more confident in your bet if you wish! Actually our top 4 scorers from last season will not be at the club next year!! Barcham got 6 and has left the club and Palmer got 5 despite being injured for 4-5 months and has left to find a club nearer his family in the Midlands..to be precise 76% of our goals this season were scored by players that will not be playing for us next season..that 25/1 is starting to look like a decent price! :lol.. Won't the pushing the panic button just yet as there is a fair chunk of the summer still to go, we have been rejected by a few players but our playing budget is amongst the leagues highest (so our chairman tells us) and we have to be a more attractive proposition than a lot of the clubs in this league, Crawley can't get bloody everyone can they?..If we get relegated from this shite league I'll give up supporting them and go and watch MK Dons instead..

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

Assembling a side capable of winning the Conference is possible, but the parallels are not the same for getting out of League Two. Looking at their squad, I don't see the quality justifying the odds - obviously that was different last season. It's not as if they have signed players who could easily play a league above - I don't think Wesley Thomas or Akinde would be great shakes at League One level, and then there are a fair amount of players who, for me are solid L2 merchants.
I don't agree with that statement really. There really isn't much difference between the top of the Conference and anything League Two can supply. Just look at Stevenage whom weren't really that good, yet managed to get themselves up through the playoffs. Crawley have still got some very very good players even at this level, and IMO the price is justified as anyone with a little bit of cash will walk this league. As for relegations, be interested to see the price on Plymouth making a successive relegation. Similar money worries to Stockport, and an expectation to gain straight promotion may cause a few problems. The players still haven't been paid since December, and after seven months I could see a few just walking away as they're unlikely to see all they're owed straight away. One to watch over the summer months, but I still don't see them as contenders for promotion.
I don't deny that Crawley will probably be fine and I reckon they may be a tip for the play-offs. But out of interest, how many of the promoted sides have actually gone on to get a double promotion, even League Two winners?
How many have been in a similar position to Crawley though?
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Jase that is a very sensible post. Nice call on Plymouth as well who could very well do a Stockport. Thing is there is so much deadwood in this League it would be nice for two of them to go down. I think the only question with Crawley now is are they value at the current odds and my view is they are probably around the right price.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

Christ, I know I said we probably wouldn't have a good season but I didn't expect people to tip us for the drop! :lol..if we did go down it would probably be the end of the club, the club messageboards are full of doom and gloom currently, I note the comment about 50% of our goals coming from Akinfenwa and McDonald and I'm surprised it's that low tbh, but I can make you feel more confident in your bet if you wish! Actually our top 4 scorers from last season will not be at the club next year!! Barcham got 6 and has left the club and Palmer got 5 despite being injured for 4-5 months and has left to find a club nearer his family in the Midlands..to be precise 76% of our goals this season were scored by players that will not be playing for us next season..that 25/1 is starting to look like a decent price! :lol.. Won't the pushing the panic button just yet as there is a fair chunk of the summer still to go, we have been rejected by a few players but our playing budget is amongst the leagues highest (so our chairman tells us) and we have to be a more attractive proposition than a lot of the clubs in this league, Crawley can't get bloody everyone can they?..If we get relegated from this shite league I'll give up supporting them and go and watch MK Dons instead..
I may have been talking utter rubbish! I admit that I don't know a great deal about football in the lower leagues, I just thought 25s looked juicy given the departures. Didn't Akinfenwa go to Northampton? I felt it spoke volumes that he decided to leave for a club that finished so much further down the table than yourselves. I'm not entirely sure, but I thought I read that he was offered a new deal but rejected it and moved instead, if that's the case, there must be something wrong. I have felt a bit grim today, given most of my antepost picks so far are relegation based - I like cheering teams on, not hoping they lose! Obviously there's a long way to go, and a huge difference between finishing just outside the playoffs and going down, but I think 25s reflects a more than reasonable price.
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season I fancy Northampton to go well this season, Gary Johnson is a very capable manager and he seems to be building his own side this summer. Jake Robinson signed today and he's a very talented player if a bit light weight, he does score goals at this level. Akinfenwa didnt get the best reviews from my Gillingham supporting friend but his size does mean he's a threat at this level and may appreciate the return to the club he done well at, 11 goals last season wasnt a bad return. Northampton finished the season well after flirting with relegation which may give them some momentum into next season. 22/1 with Bwin for the title, 9/2 for promotion Coral.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

I fancy Northampton to go well this season' date=' Gary Johnson is a very capable manager and he seems to be building his own side this summer. Jake Robinson signed today and he's a very talented player if a bit light weight, he does score goals at this level. Akinfenwa didnt get the best reviews from my Gillingham supporting friend but his size does mean he's a threat at this level and may appreciate the return to the club he done well at, 11 goals last season wasnt a bad return. Northampton finished the season well after flirting with relegation which may give them some momentum into next season. 22/1 with Bwin for the title, 9/2 for promotion Coral.[/quote'] Is Shaun Harrad still at Northampton? He is a class act at this level and Northampton looked a very decent side at Valley Parade when I saw them, could not understand why they were close to the bottom of the league. I think a frontline of Harrad, Akinfenwa and Robinson will guarantee goals and plenty of teams promoted from this league in recent years have had a prolific goalscorer: Hughes at Notts County Pitman at Bournemouth Lester/Davies at Chesterfield Lowe at Bury I can see Harrad easily getting 15-20+ goals if he has half decent players around him creating chances and a partnership with Akinfenwa could be a real success. I'm very keen on Northampton this coming season too and will be backing them soon. Certainly won't be tipping up my side, Bradford this year. Basically, a total rebuild and yet to replace the 10+ players we got rid of. We have signed a young lad from Matlock called Ross Hannah who is prolific at a lower level but overall the team lacks strength in depth at the moment and we need to add at least half a dozen players to be even looking at a mid table finish.
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season We never really played to Akinfenwa's strengths during his time with us, he is obviously not mobile in any way shape or form. He looks more like a bodybuilder than a professional footballer and doesn't have any pace to speak of, actually looks more like a teletubby when you see him on TV..he is a great link man though and if he has the ball played to his feet he will rarely give it away, Gill's 'tactics' involved hoofing the ball near his head and hoping he would be able to control it, as he can't jump it was less than successful. Despite this though he still reached double figures and would provide a good link between midfield and attack if he has good service into him, would certainly expect him to get at least 10 goals next season. Think it might be a bit fanciful to think Northampton can gain promotion through signing Akinfenwa and Robinson I would think play-offs at best will be their target although they are obviously looking to make a big improvement on last season, may be a half decent each way shout though..

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season It's all relative to the price, fellas. I'm not doubting that the gap between League Two and BSP is smaller than L2>L1, but then you wouldn't see League Two champions at 4.5-5.5 the next season. The Munto Finance thing with Notts County resulted in them being very short for the League One title, not favourites, but something like 16/1, too short given that no-one what was going on. Given that I don't know exactly what is funding Crawley, and Steve Evans dodgy past, this leaves a big question mark. Boston were similar and had Noel Whelan and Julian Joachim up-front and the plug was pulled money-wise. I don't know what the state of Crawley's finances are but it's fairly obvious that they were paying better money than L2 sides, all on gates of 2,000. Yes, they probably had £1m+ from the Man U game but IMO their wage bill is comfortably more than this, this year. Akinde is good - 28 (10) for Ebbsfleet - so what did you think about Ashikodi 16 (11)? And what is he doing now? IMO just as many strikers have been hotshots in the BSP and then gone on to be mediocre in the League. Jase - as squads stand at the moment, I don't think the odds are just. No-one apart from Boston, and perhaps Rushden and Diamonds have been in this position before, but then again, champions of the Conference might be priced around 16-20. Cash helps, of course, but then teams like Darlington had spent loads without ever getting promoted. Like I said, I don't doubt there are very good players for the squad, but no more so than other teams who are priced much longer. To my mind, there probably will be some more expensive signings for Crawley, but the chances of them going into administration are just as likely as them winning the League. Unless someone can provide me with some more information on where their money is coming from.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

We never really played to Akinfenwa's strengths during his time with us' date=' he is obviously not mobile in any way shape or form. He looks more like a bodybuilder than a professional footballer and doesn't have any pace to speak of, actually looks more like a teletubby when you see him on TV..he is a great link man though and if he has the ball played to his feet he will rarely give it away, Gill's 'tactics' involved hoofing the ball near his head and hoping he would be able to control it, as he can't jump it was less than successful. Despite this though he still reached double figures and would provide a good link between midfield and attack if he has good service into him, would certainly expect him to get at least 10 goals next season. Think it might be a bit fanciful to think Northampton can gain promotion through signing Akinfenwa and Robinson I would think play-offs at best will be their target although they are obviously looking to make a big improvement on last season, may be a half decent each way shout though..[/quote'] Think Bayo has done well at all clubs he has gone to, great player for this level I reckon if he can stay fit. Personally I think Northampton will get it right - Gary Johnson is a good manager who was hard done by at Peterborough, probably because Barry Fry had such a big input; need to see who else they might sign.
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season :lol..Christ, you've opened a can of worms now! Kevshat where are you!? I am tempted by Crawley but as you say there is the additional gamble of not knowing when they will go 'pop' on top of the gamble of them winning the league..in short despite how tempting it is there is probably little value in their price. I don't think the s*** will hit the fan this season for them but it certainly is a risk, you would have to have your head in the sand to think their financial strategy is sustainable in the long term..

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season FL2 - Northampton @ 5/1 To Be Promoted 2011/12 - Victor Chandler 1pt Saw VC put this price up this morning so had a little nibble, seeing as its 4/1 elsewhere. Everything has already been said in this thread really, Gary Johnson as manager is a big advantage. He has the experience to sign the right players and take this club up. He has begun to add some quality to his squad with the signings of Jake Robinson, Adebayo Akinfenwa, Seth Nana Ofori-Twumasi and Byron Webster. Harrad and Bayo up front in League 2 will score goals all day long, with Robinson chipping in from midfield they could be in with a shout if they can get their defence in order. Cardoza has confirmed that this summer he will break his personal policy of not paying agents’ fees to enable manager Gary Johnson to bring in a squad capable of challenging for promotion. I will await further signings before backing them with anymore units.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season That is what I am saying - if Crawley perhaps were 9 or 10/1 favs, I wouldn't be offering a comment here. At the bookies odds at 4/1, you should be thinking that Crawley have a 25%+ or better chance of winning the league. Otherwise, coupled with the opportunity costs of the investment (your money is tied up for a whole season instead of earning interest/being used in other bets), it's not really worth it. IMO their business model, looking at the likely player wages/fees and gate receipts would require an investment of in the region of £100K/month for break-even. And there is nothing to say that what has funded it so far has been the equivalent of a football Ponzi scheme. Not really a can of worms though man, it's all about opinions - I remember everyone disagreeing with me last year on the ante-post thread regarding Peter Taylor, Louis Moult and the value behind it. Wanting to oppose something doesn't mean the team/player are bad, you just think your calculated odds are less than what the bookies are implying. Debate is good, though. Anyone could turn out to be right, it'll be an interesting season for sure.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season My 'can of worms' comment was relating to you asking where Crawley's finance was coming from, as there has been a fair bit of comment on that previously, you can read all that on kev's luton thread anyway if you have further interest..As I said before you do have to wonder how much longer it can be deemed sustainable considering the kind of losses they must be making.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season Im actually a northampton fan so i'll chime in here. First part may sound biased but meh. I personally don't think we deserved to finish where we did last season. We had a good run which looked like we may have been in a position to challenge for the playoffs. However then things went pear-shaped and not due to a lack of goals. Our 18 (i think it was 18) games without a win in the second half of the season came from really, really poor defensive play. I lost count of the number of times we were winning and then threw it away to draw or lose from 2 and even 3 goal leads. When johnosn came in after the sacking of sammo he changed the defense around a bit and we were hit by injuries to the point that we had 1 proper defender fit for several games. Thats how football goes i know, but it didnt help at all. I'm glad to hear cardoza will spend this year as he has been very reluctant to in recent years. In short, with the signing's we have made we wont have problems scoring goals next season, especially with bayo back :). On top of this, i think johnoson is a top manager at this level and should sort our defense swiftly. So yeah, we look in a good place for next season, but I wont be taking any bet to win the league outright as no matter who we have outfiled, I never have and never will trust Chris Dunn in goal. He makes howling mistakes constantly, often in importnat games and i was horrified when we offered him a new contract. A fans perspective I know, but it may be helpful.

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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season

Mowgli mentioned having a prolific goalscorer. Southend have just signed Neil Harris' date=' surely he will score lots at this level. 28/1 at the moment, might be worth looking at[/quote'] Are Southend still in the financial trouble they were in last year though ?
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