Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

[punter83]

20:45 AS Roma - Sampdoria Genoa 20:45 Juventus FC - SSC Napoli 20:45 Udinese Calcio - AC Milan 20:45 US Lecce - Lazio Roma 1 AC Milan 81 2 Inter Milan 73 3 SSC Napoli 69 4 Udinese Calcio 65 5 Lazio Roma 63 6 AS Roma 60 7 Juventus FC 57 After to wins against Napoli and Bari, Lecce is safe in Serie A now. On Sunday Lazio plays in Lecce. There is still a chance of reaching a Champions league place. If Milan win away against Udinese, Lazio will be 4th place next sunday. But the odds on the Draw (Udinese-Milan) are really low. Is that a sign, that Lazio will stay 5th place?? Anyway, a victory on Lazio is safe in my eyes.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

	Sunday 22 May 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Bologna v Bari (17:00 BST)	1.67	3.8	6.5	101.58 %
	Brescia v Fiorentina (17:00 BST)	3.15	3.25	2.55	101.73 %
	Cagliari v Parma (17:00 BST)	2.24	3.4	3.65	101.45 %
	Genoa v Cesena (17:00 BST)	1.72	3.75	5.6	102.42 %
	Internazionale v Catania (17:00 BST)	1.56	4.2	7.4	101.43 %
	Palermo v Chievo (17:00 BST)	1.8	3.7	5.1	102.19 %
	AS Roma v Sampdoria (19:45 BST)	1.36	5.4	11.5	100.74 %
	Juventus v Napoli (19:45 BST)	2.04	3.65	4.12	100.69 %
	Lecce v Lazio (19:45 BST)	7	3.75	1.64	101.93 %
	Udinese v AC Milan (19:45 BST)	4.6	1.52	7.6	100.69 %

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011 Yeah I'm a bit intrigued with that price for the draw. Lazio must beat Lecce and Milan must beat Udinese in order for Lazio to finish 4th. So obviously Udinese would be delighted with a draw. I guess it more hinges on Milan. I'm never a fan of backing draws at such low prices anyway. This is purely one to wait for the Milan line-up. If they go with a weakened line-up i.e. last matches for vet's and experience for youth then I'd have a little bit on an Udinese win. Always a toss up as to how a team reacts when the points mean nothing. Overall I think it is a hard round to call. The bookies seem to think it will have goals as the lines are generally set at 2.5,3 with some decent prices too. I'm not so sure and think there could be some opportunity there. 1X2 I'm thinking Parma, Fiorentina and maybe Palermo. Will be light stakes if at all though. Got to put some more thought into this week.

[ultravires]

Brescia vs. Fiorentina Brescia come into this with their fate sealed - they will be in Serie B next season. Poor recent results against relegation battlers leads them into a meaningless match with La Viola. It is their last home match and a chance for one last hurrah as the season closes. They miss Hetemaj from midfield along with Kone. They should lead with Diamanti behind Caracciolo and young Jonothas up front. Since the turn of the year they've only beaten Parma, Bari and Bologna at home so are not consistently dominant at home. La Viola have a terrible road record this season and also have nothing to play for except pride. There is mystery regarding Sinisia's future as manager as it has been an ultimately underwhelming season for them. They have a talented team with a clear style using a wide 4-3-3 system. Team wise D'agostino has been the deep playmaker with Behrami and Montolivo either side. Usual wingers Vargas and Cerci may be joined by Mutu as Gila's fitness is in doubt and he must undergo an operation in the Summer - so why play him? I think this match has potential to explode into a really open match. Under such circumstances I'd favour Fiorentina as they have the greater attacking power. They blow very hot and cold and Brescia may force one last performance at home, but where were they when it mattered? Open match and I can go with the away side lightly here. Fiorentina win - 2.40 - 3 points - Bet365 Cagliari vs. Parma Another of the meaningless matches. Parma certainly carry the greater momentum as their great late form has been quite remarkable. 5 games with one goal conceded and wins over Inter, Udinese, Palermo and Juventus carry them to safety. They'll be looking to keep that moving on the final day and finish in a rather healthy position. The D is in tact for this and operating far better under Colomba although they had some hairy moments against Juventus. They have a workman-like midfield based largely on runners and Gallopa will be relied upon for the pretty passing. Giovinco and Bojinov should lead the line as Amauri may not quite make it and Crespo is out. Amauri making it would be a huge boost as Bojinov doesn't look like half the player he once promised to be. A solid team that has achieved fine results recently. They are totally dependent upon Giovinco for the edge up front as demonstrated by his fine goal against Juve. I think as a unit they'll be keen to keep their run going and finish the season well. It all went to pot for Cagliari once safety was achieved as they have not turned up for weeks. Purely on holiday and Donadoni has not been able to shake them up. One last home game before hitting the beach so they may well raise their game a little - who knows. Cossu has been a alte casualty which seriously affects their attacking power as he is the dynamo serving all the passes. They had a good D game when games mattered and it can't be completely forgotten despite getting torn apart by Milan last week. Parma are a very different beast with attacking problems of their own. A match that matters little in which I give Parma the edge. They have a good base and are not exactly free-flowing up front. Cagliari have been dire and missing Cossu should struggle to create ample chances. The match could turn into a complete goal-fest but I don't see it and there is a very favourable line. Under 3 goals - 1.975 - 6 points Parma win - 3.60 - 2 points Parma 1-0 - 17.00 - 0.5 points All Bet365 Lecce vs. Lazio Another game I can see being an under match. Lecce safe and sound may well go through the motions here against their CL chasing opponents. The last home game may well be seen as a chance to go with a bang but it really doesn't matter because safety was paramount and they could lose 5-0 and will still celebrate at the end of the match. No Bertolacci may mean a 4-4-2 witl Di Michele and Chevanton straight up top. Bertolacci put in some good performances over the run-in and is a miss for sure. Giacomazzi is a good ball player but is more comfortable a little deeper. There isn't really any magic in this team and quick direct attacks were used quite effectively from them. Lazio know they must win and hope Milan do them a huge favour. Lazio are regarded as Inter's bitch though so they shouldn't be too hopeful of that in my view. Anyway they can only control their match and are at almost full-strength. Dias and Biava are back together as CB's who have been pivotal to their season. Ledesma and Brochi will get the work done in CM while Hernanes, Mauri and Zarate think about scoring the goals. They have Rocchi in front of them and he should be up for this match as a chance to further prove himself for the team. As noted, as a team they can splinter as a defensive 6 and an offensive 4, often struggling to provide support consistently. Lazio need the points and have their D back which I think can be relied upon despite some less than stellar showings lately. Lecce have no real reason to put up a big fight and I expect Lazio to win but in their more typical fashion based on good D and just enough up front. No more 4-2 wins please. Under 3 goals - 1.825 - 4 points - Bet365 :hope for a dull and boring round.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011 I'm monitoring a couple of others. I want to see if Juve can perhaps come in a little more - though I think that price is at it's stretch limit. Napoli are a nice team to have as 'dogs even if Juve is a big match team this season. I can see it being another under 3 goals pick. Can't seem to decide on Udinese-Milan so I'll probably just swerve it.

[mandrew420]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011 hello, what dou you think about betting on both sides in the udinese milan game...? betting on both sides is more profitable than betting on a double chance so i was just wondering if you think its a good idea... Thanks

[witteneuzen]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011 Probably the wrong thread to ask this but cant find any right one. Does anyone has a site where i can see how much money there is staked on a game? Thanks in advance. :drums

[Irefutabilul]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

Sport	Football (Italy)
Event	Lecce v Lazio
Selection	Lecce DNB
Strength	10/10
Date	22/05/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 5.00
Reasoning	Lazio can still qualify for Champions Leagues but many wonders would be supposed to happen. Udinese would be supposed to lose their clash with Milan, which in my opinion is not going to happen, and Lazio to win at Lecce of course. But the Romans have not been so solid as their stats suggest. I was never impressed by them this season and they wouldn't deserve a Champions League place anyway. Lecce have been decent at home and in order to celebrate their stay in the Serie A, a win would be a nice gift for their fans. So even if I don't expect them to play their usual game, I still think they won't make any favours to Lazio and will have a good chance to get something out of it. On the other hand, if Udinese leads Milan, Lazio might give it up at some moment. So all in all, Lecce worths a punt.

[Irefutabilul]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

Sport	Football (Italy)
Event	Brescia v Fiorentina
Selection	Brescia win
Strength	10/10
Date	22/05/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.26
Reasoning	Brescia have been already relegated and there's no stake in the middle, but almost the same can be said about Fiorentina, who can't go up any more and a virtual win would bring them nothing but better records. In my opinion, Brescia was a good team. Had their circumstances been different I think they could have saved themselves from relegation. One last match in the Serie A in front of their fans - what would be better if not a win? Fiorentina have been amazingly pathetic on the road this season, never really playing well and their records also suggest that. Being set as favorites, when they don't need and can't do it anyway, is a major mistake in my opinion. I would expect at least an even match and Brescia not to lose.

[captaincool]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011 Genoa are being backed to an insance amount of money on betfair. £568,117 of £583,650 has been matched on the home win. To put this in perspective, Cagliairi v Parma, which features another two teams who won't be moving relegated and can't qualify for Europe has had under £30,000 matched in total. Home win at 8/15 has to be the bet.

[MPLouis]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

Probably the wrong thread to ask this but cant find any right one. Does anyone has a site where i can see how much money there is staked on a game? Thanks in advance. :drums

Betfair lets you see how much is staked on a game on Betfair

[luckotheoirish]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011 I posted here a while ago about betting on the correct score when the price for the draw is very low in Italy and also betting on both teams.I won a bit of money that day on Bet366.Since then I've looked at doing this again but i notice bet366 don't let you bet on the correct score now.I've checked two games since my post. Of course this is most likely a coincidence but I wonder do the bookies look at this forum and act on some of the posts?I was once responsible indirectly for getting a match changed on Skybet from info I read on the swedish thread......just something to think about.......

[captaincool]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

Genoa are being backed to an insance amount of money on betfair. £568,117 of £583,650 has been matched on the home win. To put this in perspective, Cagliairi v Parma, which features another two teams who won't be moving relegated and can't qualify for Europe has had under £30,000 matched in total. Home win at 8/15 has to be the bet.

:beer

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011

Fiorentina win - 2.40 - 3 points - LOSS Cagliari vs. Parma Under 3 goals - 1.975 - 6 points - WIN Parma win - 3.60 - 2 points - LOSS Parma 1-0 - 17.00 - 0.5 points - LOSS Lecce vs. Lazio Under 3 goals - 1.825 - 4 points - LOSS

A late goal for Brescia cost Fiorentina the win. The game was a little too open in the end. Cagliari-Parma went pretty much to plan. Close to nailing all three in that one which would have been sweet. Would have also been hard on Cagliari who deserved a point. Lazio ended in exactly what I said I didn't want - a 4-2 win. I didn't watch but clearly way off with that one. It's a shame to end with a limp loss of around 3 points.