BBOTD Saturday 14th

[Quackers]

2.50 Newmarket Nanton 16/1 win Ladbrokes In woeful form at the moment but I do fancy Nanton to run a big race here. I backed this horse last time out where he finished 5th off a mark of 102 at this course over 1m4f. To me he showed that there is still plenty of ability there by the way he travelled through the race. He was caught out when they quickened and was slightly hampered and had to switch. They went an absolute crawl as well in that race which didn’t suit Nanton as he likes to come from behind off a fast pace. The race was run at over 8 seconds below standard which is pretty slow! The extra 2 furlongs today should suit and also there is more chance of them going quick up front in this race with there being several horses who like to front run. There are few horses here who could lead in Kazbow, Muzo, Trovare and possibly both of the Johnston horses. There should be a good gallop from the off which will help Nanton settle. His last win came way back in 2009 over an extra half furlong than he races over today. The result never looked in doubt that day as he travelled powerfully held up at the back of the pack and always looked as though he would win. The interesting thing about that race is that today’s favourite Cosmic Sun ran in that race and was readily brushed aside. You could argue that Cosmic Sun has improved since then and Nanton may be on the decline but I don’t think this is the case. When they met that day, Nanton was rated 4lbs higher than Cosmic Sun which is similar to today. Nanton has been dropped 2lbs since his last run to 100 and Cosmic Sun is now rated 95. That win at Doncaster came off a mark of 98 but the ease of that win suggests he could still be competitive off this mark of 100 today. It’s the first time he will encounter similar conditions to that of his Doncaster victory. This will be his lowest handicap mark on the turf since that win and I fully expect him to run a big race here. He has been highly tried in the last couple of years in group races where he has fell short of the required level but on his day he is a very smart handicapper over a range of trips. I think now that he is getting older this longer trip may be best suited to him. The stable are in good form in both codes and Daniel Tudhope gets on well with the horse and knows how to ride him. Cosmic Sun is a worthy favourite after his impressive win last time out at Kempton but it is very possible that he is a better horse on the all weather with 2 wins from 2. He now has to transfer that form to the turf off a 6lb higher mark which is possible because he did run well against Nanton off 94. The form of that Kempton win has been franked by several of the horses that were in behind with Red Cadeaux the latest to frank the form by winning at Hamilton. Abergavenny is interesting for Brian Ellison after a very easy win over hurdles. Formally with Mark Johnston this horse’s last win on the flat came off 75 but he looks to have improved for the switch to this yard so there is every chance he can get competitive here off 84 after running well on his first start for this yard. Kazbow is also interesting after a couple of wins last year. They both came in small fields though and both times he beat the same horse in My Mate Max who is not the greatest yardstick. His last run however was very impressive and was very quick taking into account there was only 4 runners. My only doubt is the Cumani form. Most of their horses have needed the run and this might be the case with this one. Chiberta King took this last year off a 4lb higher mark but his reappearance was very disappointing so I couldn’t possibly fancy him here. There are others of interest but they are the main dangers for me. I do fancy Nanton quite strongly. If they go a decent gallop I can see him going very close. I do think there is another win in him so hopefully it comes today in this race :hope

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 14th 20.00 Uttoxeter Overlaw - 1pt win @ sp Overlaw won well last time with a tongue tie for the first time over this course and distance and can go well here again off a similar mark and conditions and should follow up if performs well like last time out