Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

[ultravires]

	Saturday 14 May 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	1. FC Kaiserslautern v Werder Bremen (14:30 BST)	2.54	3.8	2.97	99.36 %
	1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04 (14:30 BST)	2.36	3.5	3.4	100.36 %
	1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC St. Pauli (14:30 BST)	1.39	5.26	9	101.87 %
	1899 Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg (14:30 BST)	4	4	1.98	100.51 %
	Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30 BST)	1.7	4.3	5.41	100.56 %
	FC Bayern München v VfB Stuttgart (14:30 BST)	1.33	6.2	10	101.07 %
	Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach (14:30 BST)	3.1	3.82	2.4	100.10 %
	Hannover 96 v 1. FC Nürnberg (14:30 BST)	2.14	3.7	3.7	100.78 %
	SC Freiburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (14:30 BST)	4.5	3.81	1.94	100.02 %

[ValueHunter]

Under 3 goals AH with bet365 For the last few weeks I've made decent profit out of Bundesliga betting on under 3 goals AH. So I decided to have some fun in the last round. I picked 8 games and will play them in trebles. Although Bayern Munich match offers some tasty odds I dropped it because they proved scoring 6 or even 8 goals is not a problem for them :lol Why trebles? I've made some calculations for the following outcome - 3 games go under, 3 games go over and 2 games are on the par which is quite possible in my opinion. So we have 3 wins, 2 pushes, 3 losses. By my estimations trebles will give me around 28% yeild in this case. Any higher combo (4,5,6 ..etc folds) will result into a loss. Of course If I get lucky and more games go under 3 goals 4 or 5 folds would have probably been better choice but I am not quite sure. To lazy to do more calculations because there is a huge list of probabilities due to the "push" option here. Note that a game that ends with exactly 3 goals scored (push) will be counted as a winning bet with price of 1.00. I did my calculations with average price of 1.95 Trebles in 8 games acca means 56 bets (your initial stake will be multiplied by 56 so be careful not to put some high number, personally I will go for the lowest one). Here are the games I have picked (all under 3 goals AH): Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht @2.075 Cologne v Schalke @2.10 Hamburg v Borussia M'gladbach @1.70 Hannover 96 v Nurnberg @2.15 Kaiserslautern v Werder Bremen @2.05 Mainz v St Pauli @2.00 SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen @1.975 TSG Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg @2.075 I have already mentioned several times that despite of the fact Bundesliga is the most high-scoring league amongst the other top European leagues (EPL, La Liga, Serie A), we see less and less goals in the end of the season. Let's take last round for example where we had 4 unders, 3 pushes and only 2 overs. Also most of you will agree that 3 goals per game is quite high margin to pass and these odds do not look reasonable IMO. I had four under 3 goals bets last week, 3 of them won and 1 of them was a push. Hopefully we can see something similar this week. GL. P.S. If somebody noticed mistakes in my calculations let me know because I did them well after midnight and might have messed something up.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May For me,you can play Bayern with high high stakes!Furthermore I will be on Lautern,they are playing their last match of the season after achieving their aim while Bremen wants to finish the horrible season as soon as possible.They are without Pizarro,Wagner and Mertesacker.Jensen is suspended and a few players are already injured.Coach Schaaf has just nominated 15 players.they have got just 2 fit strikers with Avdic and Arnautovic and both are crap,Arnautovic was suspended last week and only scored 2 goals so far while I don't know why they bought Avdic from Sweden. Lautern AH0 1,81 7pts pinnacle Lautern 1 2,50 3pts gamebooker GL:hope

[lazynko]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May Hello boyz, I´m not following Bundesliga so much, but I want to hear your opinions about this three matches, which will be played in this last round of german first division. Hamburg - Gladbach Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg Dortmund - Frankfurt Hosts have nothing to play for, on the other hand, their opponents are fighting to avoid relegation. Gladbach is @2.40, Wolfsburg @2.00 and Frankfurt @5.00 Any ideas?

[JPee]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May leverkusen, gladbach and wolfsburg pure value!! gladbach in a very good shape and they have to get the 3 points here to not to relegate, whereas the mercenaries of hamburg just play crap. hanke 2 score also a very good pick. wolfsburg is also a good pick. felix magath is a very good coach, who will advance the right players to win this match. "vizekusen" has to assure their 2nd place and I think they won't have any problems to get the three points in freiburg and they will approve jupp heynckes adequately. i want to add that trainer robin dutt moves next season to leverkusen and i think he'll play CL, so it's possible that he advances some of the subtitutes. so my picks for the weekend: Wolfsburg @2 Gladbach @2,25 Hanke 2 score @? Leverkusen @1,83 (williamhill) [url=http://dict.leo.org/ende?lp=ende&p=Ci4HO3kMAA&search=mercenary&trestr=0x801]

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

"vizekusen" has to assure their 2nd place and I think they won't have any problems to get the three points in freiburg Leverkusen @1,83

Re. Freiburg v Leverkusen - Leverkusen only need a point to guarantee second place.

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Hello boyz, I´m not following Bundesliga so much, but I want to hear your opinions about this three matches, which will be played in this last round of german first division. Hamburg - Gladbach Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg Dortmund - Frankfurt Hosts have nothing to play for, on the other hand, their opponents are fighting to avoid relegation. Gladbach is @2.40, Wolfsburg @2.00 and Frankfurt @5.00 Any ideas?

I don't know enough about the relegation candidates or their opponents, but I have seem some games recently, and I can't help feeling that Mgladbach, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt are all decent value. Also: Hamburg v Mgladbach Under 2.5 goals @ 2.54 on Betfair looks good value as Mgladbach have a defensive style of play.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Hello boyz, I´m not following Bundesliga so much, but I want to hear your opinions about this three matches, which will be played in this last round of german first division. Hamburg - Gladbach Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg Dortmund - Frankfurt Hosts have nothing to play for, on the other hand, their opponents are fighting to avoid relegation. Gladbach is @2.40, Wolfsburg @2.00 and Frankfurt @5.00 Any ideas?

Hi,I am following the Bundesliga because I am from Germany. Gladbach is in a good run and could win but the odds are too low in my eyes.So I wouldn't take them.Hamburg showed a better performance last week but tey have nothing to play for.I would prefer to take under 2,5 small and under 3,5 big.Gladbach has one of the best defenses at the moment.In the last 11 matches they conceded last than 10 goals,just Dortmund conceded lee than Gladbach. Hoffenheim can go for a victory or for a draw,Wolfsburg is under pressure.I wouldn't take it too.Grafite will be back for Wolfsburg. No way that Frankfurt is going to win this match.Under Daum they haven't won.3 draws and 3 losses.Dortmund will celebrate the title at home and a loss wouldn't be nice for their celebration.Coach Klopp saidd,that they don't want to lose this match.Furthermore kagawa is back in their squad and he will probably play a few minutes.

[punter83]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Under 3 goals AH with bet365 For the last few weeks I've made decent profit out of Bundesliga betting on under 3 goals AH. So I decided to have some fun in the last round. I picked 8 games and will play them in trebles. Although Bayern Munich match offers some tasty odds I dropped it because they proved scoring 6 or even 8 goals is not a problem for them :lol

Last round! Excactly. All home teams want to make it a nice seson final for their fans. They want to score goals. In the games with Bayern, Lautern, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Mainz I expect more than 2,5 goals.

[punter83]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

I don't know enough about the relegation candidates or their opponents, but I have seem some games recently, and I can't help feeling that Mgladbach, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt are all decent value.

Dortmund at home gets the cup on saturday. Leader Nuri Sahin (plays for REAL next season and his friends (actually most of dortmund player are freinds) want to play one last amazing game on saturday. Frankfurt need a victory, but Germany ist not Italy. I expect a HCP victory of Dortmund.

[ValueHunter]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Last round! Excactly. All home teams want to make it a nice seson final for their fans. They want to score goals. In the games with Bayern' date=' Lautern, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Mainz I expect more than 2,5 goals.[/quote'] Over 2.5 still could be of some use to me as far as it's not over 3. I dont' have the Bayern game. Betting on overs at these extremely short prices aint worth the risk.

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Dortmund at home gets the cup on saturday. Leader Nuri Sahin (plays for REAL next season and his friends (actually most of dortmund player are freinds) want to play one last amazing game on saturday. Frankfurt need a victory, but Germany ist not Italy. I expect a HCP victory of Dortmund.

It's quite common for teams who are celebrating winning a championship or promotion to lose their next game - one recent example - QPR losing 2-1 at home to Leeds last Saturday. (I'm not saying that Dortmund will necessarily lose - but there might be some value in backing Frankfurt).

[ValueHunter]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

It's quite common for teams who are celebrating winning a championship or promotion to lose their next game - one recent example - QPR losing 2-1 at home to Leeds last Saturday. (I'm not saying that Dortmund will necessarily lose - but there might be some value in backing Frankfurt).

Exactly, it's better not to back teams which have nothing to play for in the end of the season especially when they are facing teams fighting for their lives. QPR is not the only example, Barca, Sevilla and Atletico Madrid couldn't win their last games against inferior teams. Dortmund themselves lost their game with Werder last weekend, not to mention about the Italian Serie A/B affairs.

[Desert]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May I will play tomorrow some goalscorer bets. The last day in Bundesliga is often a goalday. Many forwards are fighting for a title or want to say thanks because they go to another club. So i will try these ones: Freiburg - Leverkusen Cisse to score @2,75 (William Hill, Boylesports had a 3,00 but now 2,10) Cisse secondbest goalscorer in Bundesliga and the best african forward in Bundesliga! That has never been. Its not sure if he will stay in Freiburg or if he plays in England next season. The important things that he scored 22 goals of the 41 Freiburg goals. Leverkusen just needs one point to stand 2nd place. I think we can see a high scoring draw which cisse should score at least one for Freiburg. Kaiserslautern - Bremen Lakic to score @2,75 (William Hill - Gamebookers 2,50) Last game here for Lakic in the Lautern jersey. He will go to Wolfsburg. Bremen comes to Kaiserslautern without motivation, with some big absences like Pizarro and Wagner. Lakic wants to make a good game for the fans and say thanks for the time in Kaiserslautern. So why not to say thanks with a goal? Odd is really good. Köln - Schalke 04 Novakovic to score @2,50 (Gamebookers) For Schalke its just a "training game" because their minds are all in Berlin in the Cup Final against Duisburg. They will not give their best. Köln as a very strong homeside wants to show the fans a good match in the last homegame for this season. Novakovic likes to score at home: He scored 14 of his 16 (!) goals at home! So why not against Schalke too? Schalke with no big motivation like Bremen in Kaiserslautern. My call here is a 3-1 or 4-1 for Köln. Dortmund - Frankfurt Barrios to score @2,25 (William Hill) Very bad situation for Frankfurt. Only a win will help them. But away against Dortmund? No way! Dortmund the fresh champion said they want the win in their last homegame and then celebrate with the team and fans in the city. Frankfurt will of course give 100% and will attack from beginning, but against Dortmund is no way. Their defence is too strong for Gekas and co. It will be easy for Dortmund to score goals if Frankfurt will attack because Dortmund is dangerous in counter attacks with Barrios upfront. Barrios have 14 goals and Lewandowski 8 but he will sit on the bench and maybe he will play in the end a little. Mainz - St Pauli Schürrle to score @1,80 (Gamebookers) For Schürrle is it his last game for Mainz. He will go to Leverkusen. Schürrle is the best attacker for Mainz. He scored 14 goals for Mainz. St Pauli is relegated. They have no more motivations more. Bayern shoot them with 8:1 out of their own stadion! I can see a highscore game too. For Holtby its his last game too. Both Schürrle and Holtby will start tomorrow. They want to say thanks for the team for the great season they played. Because of them they will play in Europa Leage next saison. My call is a 4:1 or 5:1 with one or two Schürrle goals. Good luck!

[maw49]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May Who likes Mainz -1? Think this may be a strong bet for tomorrow. Mainz are in the UEFA Qualifying spot and with a win can reach the automatic bid spot. St. Pauli knows they are 2nd Bundesliga bound already.

[Sprut]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

I will play tomorrow some goalscorer bets. The last day in Bundesliga is often a goalday. Many forwards are fighting for a title or want to say thanks because they go to another club. So i will try these ones: Freiburg - Leverkusen Cisse to score @2,75 (William Hill, Boylesports had a 3,00 but now 2,10) Cisse secondbest goalscorer in Bundesliga and the best african forward in Bundesliga! That has never been. Its not sure if he will stay in Freiburg or if he plays in England next season. The important things that he scored 22 goals of the 41 Freiburg goals. Leverkusen just needs one point to stand 2nd place. I think we can see a high scoring draw which cisse should score at least one for Freiburg. Kaiserslautern - Bremen Lakic to score @2,75 (William Hill - Gamebookers 2,50) Last game here for Lakic in the Lautern jersey. He will go to Wolfsburg. Bremen comes to Kaiserslautern without motivation, with some big absences like Pizarro and Wagner. Lakic wants to make a good game for the fans and say thanks for the time in Kaiserslautern. So why not to say thanks with a goal? Odd is really good. Köln - Schalke 04 Novakovic to score @2,50 (Gamebookers) For Schalke its just a "training game" because their minds are all in Berlin in the Cup Final against Duisburg. They will not give their best. Köln as a very strong homeside wants to show the fans a good match in the last homegame for this season. Novakovic likes to score at home: He scored 14 of his 16 (!) goals at home! So why not against Schalke too? Schalke with no big motivation like Bremen in Kaiserslautern. My call here is a 3-1 or 4-1 for Köln. Dortmund - Frankfurt Barrios to score @2,25 (William Hill) Very bad situation for Frankfurt. Only a win will help them. But away against Dortmund? No way! Dortmund the fresh champion said they want the win in their last homegame and then celebrate with the team and fans in the city. Frankfurt will of course give 100% and will attack from beginning, but against Dortmund is no way. Their defence is too strong for Gekas and co. It will be easy for Dortmund to score goals if Frankfurt will attack because Dortmund is dangerous in counter attacks with Barrios upfront. Barrios have 14 goals and Lewandowski 8 but he will sit on the bench and maybe he will play in the end a little. Mainz - St Pauli Schürrle to score @1,80 (Gamebookers) For Schürrle is it his last game for Mainz. He will go to Leverkusen. Schürrle is the best attacker for Mainz. He scored 14 goals for Mainz. St Pauli is relegated. They have no more motivations more. Bayern shoot them with 8:1 out of their own stadion! I can see a highscore game too. For Holtby its his last game too. Both Schürrle and Holtby will start tomorrow. They want to say thanks for the team for the great season they played. Because of them they will play in Europa Leage next saison. My call is a 4:1 or 5:1 with one or two Schürrle goals. Good luck!

Hannover - Nürnberg The order Conan has reached 13 goals this year, of which 10 to 14 home games played. In order anytime Conan "paid" to 8 from 14 matches (57%).

[Sprut]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Hannover - Nürnberg The order Conan has reached 13 goals this year, of which 10 to 14 home games played. In order anytime Conan "paid" to 8 from 14 matches (57%).

Rating of 33 rounds (in parenthesis goal difference, which is the first criterion for a tie and the next they want each group): 1) Dortmund 72 (43) - Champion 2) Bayer Leverkusen 65 (19) - She wants a degree to be definitely second 3) Bayern 62 (40) - He wants victory and defeat of Bayer Leverkusen to come second 4) Hannover 57 (2) - He just wants to win not to lose his fourth place 5) Mainz 55 (12) - He wants his own victory and non-victory in Hanover to finish fourth 6) Nuremberg 47 (4) - Indifferent 7) Hamburg 44 (-6) - Indifferent 8) Freiburg 44 (-8) - Indifferent 9) Hoffenheim 43 (2) - Indifferent 10) Kaiserslautern 43 (-4) - Indifferent 11) Stuttgart 42 (2) - Indifferent 12) Werder 41 (-13) - Indifferent 13) Cologne 41 (-16) - Indifferent 14) Schalke 40 (-5) - Indifferent 15) VfL Wolfsburg 35 (-7) - With a victory in saving it. With a draw or defeat and he gets demoted and can be directly 16) Borussia 35 (-17) - He wants his own victory and Gela in Wolfsburg to be saved directly. Otherwise, the scenarios are many ... 17) Eintracht Frankfurt 34 (-16) - Very difficult to be saved directly. With its victory, hopes to overcome at least one other group 18) San Pauli 29 (-32) - has relegated

[Chris-UK]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May Bayern v Stuttgart I think we can all agree bayern will win this game but its on how much trouble will stuttgart caus them, cacua is out so that is one danger not there but with bayern motivation to get into second place if Leverkusen do lose will be the winner here, players for bayern with robben, gomez, ribbery and Schweinsteiger just to name afew should dominate stuttgart, bayern won 8-1 against St Pauli last game which shows there flying with confidence. Bayern -1 1.73 (888sport) :hope

[RedDevil92]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May Ribery is out for today

[Chris-UK]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Ribery is out for today

sure they find another good player to replace him:ok

[ValueHunter]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May Not the best round to back unders. 4 bets lost, 2 bets won and 2 pushes :(

[RedDevil92]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

For me,you can play Bayern with high high stakes!Furthermore I will be on Lautern,they are playing their last match of the season after achieving their aim while Bremen wants to finish the horrible season as soon as possible.They are without Pizarro,Wagner and Mertesacker.Jensen is suspended and a few players are already injured.Coach Schaaf has just nominated 15 players.they have got just 2 fit strikers with Avdic and Arnautovic and both are crap,Arnautovic was suspended last week and only scored 2 goals so far while I don't know why they bought Avdic from Sweden. Lautern AH0 1,81 7pts pinnacle:nana Lautern 1 2,50 3pts gamebooker:nana GL:hope

3:2 :nana:nana:nana 10,17pts:dude:dude:dude

[Desert]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

I will play tomorrow some goalscorer bets. The last day in Bundesliga is often a goalday. Many forwards are fighting for a title or want to say thanks because they go to another club. So i will try these ones: Freiburg - Leverkusen Cisse to score @2,75 (William Hill, Boylesports had a 3,00 but now 2,10) Cisse secondbest goalscorer in Bundesliga and the best african forward in Bundesliga! That has never been. Its not sure if he will stay in Freiburg or if he plays in England next season. The important things that he scored 22 goals of the 41 Freiburg goals. Leverkusen just needs one point to stand 2nd place. I think we can see a high scoring draw which cisse should score at least one for Freiburg. Kaiserslautern - Bremen Lakic to score @2,75 (William Hill - Gamebookers 2,50) Last game here for Lakic in the Lautern jersey. He will go to Wolfsburg. Bremen comes to Kaiserslautern without motivation, with some big absences like Pizarro and Wagner. Lakic wants to make a good game for the fans and say thanks for the time in Kaiserslautern. So why not to say thanks with a goal? Odd is really good. Köln - Schalke 04 Novakovic to score @2,50 (Gamebookers) For Schalke its just a "training game" because their minds are all in Berlin in the Cup Final against Duisburg. They will not give their best. Köln as a very strong homeside wants to show the fans a good match in the last homegame for this season. Novakovic likes to score at home: He scored 14 of his 16 (!) goals at home! So why not against Schalke too? Schalke with no big motivation like Bremen in Kaiserslautern. My call here is a 3-1 or 4-1 for Köln. Dortmund - Frankfurt Barrios to score @2,25 (William Hill) Very bad situation for Frankfurt. Only a win will help them. But away against Dortmund? No way! Dortmund the fresh champion said they want the win in their last homegame and then celebrate with the team and fans in the city. Frankfurt will of course give 100% and will attack from beginning, but against Dortmund is no way. Their defence is too strong for Gekas and co. It will be easy for Dortmund to score goals if Frankfurt will attack because Dortmund is dangerous in counter attacks with Barrios upfront. Barrios have 14 goals and Lewandowski 8 but he will sit on the bench and maybe he will play in the end a little. Mainz - St Pauli Schürrle to score @1,80 (Gamebookers) For Schürrle is it his last game for Mainz. He will go to Leverkusen. Schürrle is the best attacker for Mainz. He scored 14 goals for Mainz. St Pauli is relegated. They have no more motivations more. Bayern shoot them with 8:1 out of their own stadion! I can see a highscore game too. For Holtby its his last game too. Both Schürrle and Holtby will start tomorrow. They want to say thanks for the team for the great season they played. Because of them they will play in Europa Leage next saison. My call is a 4:1 or 5:1 with one or two Schürrle goals. Good luck!

so bad cisse didn't score :eyes:sad but the other ones scored i am mad that i didnt take barrios instead of cisse !!

[Chris-UK]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14 May

Bayern v Stuttgart I think we can all agree bayern will win this game but its on how much trouble will stuttgart caus them, cacua is out so that is one danger not there but with bayern motivation to get into second place if Leverkusen do lose will be the winner here, players for bayern with robben, gomez, ribbery and Schweinsteiger just to name afew should dominate stuttgart, bayern won 8-1 against St Pauli last game which shows there flying with confidence. Bayern -1 1.73 (888sport) ft 2-1 :wall :hope

I was thinking about both teams to score but pah! bayern still won..just!