daVinci*s Tennis, ATP/WTA Roma

[daVinci]

Thought -------- With Nadal having to fight more heavily then expected against domestic Lorenzi, things start to play out well for Djoko*s approach towards No.1. Nadals draw is brutal, with in-form Feliciano Lopez waiting next and a tiring Quarter Final looming against his great clay court rival Ferrer. Nadal has really looked tired to me through the final stages of IW and Miami, and a grueling 4 tournaments/5 weeks schedule, due to his stubborness to skip Barcelona, is not going to improve that impression. If the Feliciano match is any sort of extended test for Nadal, Ferrer could already be too much of a task at this point, but certainly Federer will fancy his chance in the Semi. Should Nadal get bounced prior to the Semi and Djoko win the tournament, the Serb will be the new No. 1. Having pretty much a cakywalky draw, expect the Serb to be locked in the rest of the way, hoping to face a tired Nadal in the Final, who would likely struggle even more to break down Djokos defence, especially if the conditions remain as quick as they have so far. Djoko to win Rome was available at 3.00+ this morning, but has dropped to 2.6 since. I am undecided as to whether that has still straightforward/trade value, but for the widerange bettors, 2/10 is certainly not far off for a spice bet.

[daVinci]

Re: daVinci*s Tennis, ATP/WTA Roma News ----- David Ferrer has just withdrawn from his match against Marin Cilic tonight. No specific reasoning official yet. Carlos Berlocq will replace him. Can*t over state the fact of how HUGE this is for Nadal as his Quarter Final becomes a cakewalk now (Cilic/Fish). Djoko won*t be as happy. *Edit: Ferrer is out with fever.

[daVinci]

Re: daVinci*s Tennis, ATP/WTA Roma Pick ----- Nicolas Almagro - Robin Soderling The Spaniard is coming off a disappointing defeat in the 1st round in Madrid, but has done well to bounce back against Querrey last round. With the exception of a short let down towards the latter stage of set 1, it was a fairly straight forward contest. Soderling is in somewhat mediocre form and managed to come back from being almost done and dusted against Verdasco. However, most of that was self-destruction by the Spaniard rather then good play by the Swede. He was utterly dominated throughout almost 2 sets, before Verdasco shanked away the 2nd set with double fault and even at 3-0 in the 3rd, Soderling was still struggling to close it out. Verdasco shred his 2nd serve to pieces and as usual, Robins return game was way too passive for most of the match. While their overall history is somewhat even at 4-3 in favor of the Swede, Almagro has beaten Soderling in 3 out of 4 contests on the dirt, including a fast clay court similar to Rome this year, in Madrid of 2010 as well as a Finals victory last year in Bastad, Sweden, a very slow clay. Soderling is overrated for me on clay outside of Roland Garros. He plays well there because of the quick courts, the athmosphere and the swagger he has developed for that tournament, but his record away from that tournament on clay is very mediocre. Almagro is a terrific clay courter who will not miss out on attacking Soderling on both wings and catch the Swede out of position like Verdasco. He will be hungry for his first big scalp since entering the Top 10 and it feel like the right timing and the right opponent for him. Odds are being crashed it looks like, started at 2.36 which is what I took Pick: Almagro ML, 6/10 2.2+