ultravires Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Saturday 14 May 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Lazio v Genoa (17:00 BST) 1.37 5.1 10 102.60 % AC Milan v Cagliari (19:45 BST) 1.53 3.8 8.2 103.87 % Sunday 15 May 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Fiorentina v Bologna (11:30 BST) 1.77 3.1 8 101.26 % Bari v Lecce (14:00 BST) 5.3 3.75 1.73 103.34 % Catania v AS Roma (14:00 BST) 8 4.6 1.48 101.81 % Cesena v Brescia (14:00 BST) 1.3 6 12 101.92 % Chievo v Udinese (14:00 BST) 7.3 4.8 1.46 103.03 % Parma v Juventus (14:00 BST) 4.6 3.5 2.02 99.82 % Sampdoria v Palermo (14:00 BST) 1.37 5.4 9.5 102.04 % Napoli v Internazionale (19:45 BST) 4.1 1.86 4.1 102.54 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May I've put this thread up early because there is one bet that I had to take because I'm wary of the price falling. I'll put the rest of the threads up tomorrow night, once the mid-week matches are over. Sampdoria vs. Palermo Sampdoria are roughly 1.33 to win this match - which I can scarcely believe. This is a team that has won only 3 times in 2011 (Roma, Bologna, Bari). They suffered an absolutely crushing defeat to Genoa on Sunday conceding in the last minute after having the best of the second half but creating next to nothing. Mannini and Ziegler are both suspended. That means that probably Volta will move out wide and Lucchini will come into the centre with Gastaldello. Guberti will replace Mannini and can be a pretty tricky player. Palombo and Tissone will have a handful in the form of the Palermo midfield 3. I don't think Guberti and Laczko can trouble Balza and Cassani enough. Width is Samp's usual form of attack but the wingers are crap particularly Laczko. Nothing to say about Pozzi/Maccarone/Biabiany as strikers - the lack of goals says it all. Palermo have just beaten Milan 2-1 tonight, but I am not overly focussing on that. I heard they played a very smart and organised game, which doesn't sound like them, but they tend to play well against Milan. We all know Palermo can beat teams like Milan and then under-perform against strugglers - it's how they are. However Sampdoria really are shite. They've been the worst team in 2011 as I think even Bari have shown greater desire. There are no serious issues squad wise and a trio formed from Pastore/Illicic/Miccoli/Pinilla/Hernandez is more than enough to have Samp worried. It's got the air of a price that seems too good to be true. Samp are not mathematically down but I question what damage that loss to Genoa has done, and even given the nature of Palermo as a team, they cannot be priced at 9.00 against any teams in the league - let alone Sampdoria. Even when considering the unthinkable, you can get one goal cover at a good price. Palermo +1(AH) - 2.175 - 7 points - Bet365 Palermo win - 9.00 - 2 points - Bet365 I may take Palermo on a - 'cap once they are released for low stakes. Elsewhere I'm eyeing Parma on a 'cap as well as a couple others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matdusud Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May i think the price reflect the risk of a fixed match:( , but not of course regarding values of both team you think palermo will play it seriously?if yes will jump on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May I did consider the history of dubious matches that are often experienced. I couldn't find a reason for this to be so - other than genuine corruption (that we wont go any further into). Palermo losing will not damage a rival. Realistically the drop is between Lecce and Sampdoria. Lecce and Palermo are not rivals, and have no unusual hostility. I think the view has been taken that Samp 'need' the points. They have needed points for a very long time, and as I said Palermo shouldn't be at 9.00 against anyone. People may have a different view on the legitimacy of this match, but I think the +1 in particular is a great price. Perhaps do your own investigating, but I can't find anything. EDIT - Also if there is suspicion over a match the bookies usually wait a few days before quoting the lines. Bet365 have done this on several occasions recently with some matches not coming up until Friday-ish. These all went up early so that could be indicative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May As far as I know Inter was never involved in fixed games and as Inter supporter I will be very disappointed if this game ends in a draw. All last 4 Napoli-Inter games produced 1 goal or less with Napoli winning 3 times by the same scoreline 1-0 and one game ended 0-0. So, if the correct score market will be available then will back Napoli 1-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S. S. C. Napoli Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Hi everyone, this my first post on Punterslounge. Let's have a deeper glance at the matches of the last but one round. Lazio Genoa: Lazio involved in the fight four the fourth place, however Genoa has taken seriously every single match of this campionato. Milan Cagliari Both teams have nothing to ask. 1.53 would be a decent odds to celebrate the Scudetto in front of their fans in San Siro. Probable line up: 32Abbiati 20Abate 13Nesta 33Thiago Silva 19 Zambrotta 8Gattuso 4Van Bommel 23Ambrosini 10Seedorf 70Robinho11Ibrahimovic Fiorentina Bologna Fiorentina is playing greatly in the last matches, with a Cerci in very good shape. However too high odds for Bologna. Bari Lecce The Derby of Puglia (Apulia). The values of players and motivations would certainly lead to an easy away win. The fans of Bari are twinned with the fans of Sampdoria. Bari fans are doing their utmost to motivate their players and send their rivals together with Bari in Serie B. Catania Roma Roma outside of Olimpico is always a hard guess. Roma without Brighi, Mexes, De Rossi and Perrotta. Cesena Brescia The fans of both teams are twinned. Important away wins in Bologna and Cagliari. They're going to win 100% this, in order to be out of the relegation fight. Chievo Udinese Sanchez and Di Natale will lead Udinese to the qualification to the Champions League. I don't think that Chievo will pay importance to this match. Parma Juventus No bet match for me. Sampdoria Palermo Last week the president of Palermo declared that he would be happy if Sampdoria would still play in serie A. Miccoli is for sure one of the player who will take the match seriously, since he's from Lecce. For Sampdoria Da Costa again into the goal, Guberti, key player, now is starting from the first minute. Sampdoria players have no confidence in their means. Will look at this game maybe live. Napoli Inter It's not a fixed match. Let's call it a kind of "respect". Cavani and Mascara are out for Napoli. Two key important players. Weak form. 3rd place has still to be achieved (in order to avoid the Champions league qualifying matches). Zuniga and Hamsik will support Lavezzi, who will play as striker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Lazio vs. Genoa A win for Lazio is imperative for them if they are to achieve 4th place. They are in pretty bad shape at the moment and have to get things back on track. At home they've been very strong and I'd expect another tight game from them. Their success has been built on a tight D that gives very little away. They put on one of the worst displays of playing the offside trap against Udinese last week, but that's not a good team to try and use it against anyway, and they'll go back to their usual set up. Dias is suspended which is a blow. Garrido had a horror show and will likely be dropped leaving (probably) Lichsteiner - Biava - Stenardo - Scaloni. A little bit unsettled but they'll have Matuzalem and Ledesma in front of them for protection. Mauri is back and will be joined by Hernanes, Zarate and Floccari/Sculli. Even when at full strength Lazio rarely let the shackles off and trash a team though Mauri coming back gives them added drive. Genoa won the derby with the last kick of the game at the weekend. Being that it was a derby it descended into chaos with absolutely no structure and Sampdoria were running through Genoa like the midfield wasn't even there, and vice versa. They can be relatively organised though and I think they'll be better in that respect this week. I'm kind of expecting them to go through the motions in this match. I doubt they'll fold but I don't think they can really ruffle this Lazio team, that are usually solid at home. Floro Flores and Palacio can be a bit flakey and against top teams can struggle. No worries for them team wise, except Mesto missing - but no biggie. In sum, I'm expecting typical Lazio performance and they'll control the game. Genoa will hopefully put in a decent D game to do their part. Under 2.5 goals - 2.30 - 3 points - Bet365 EDIT - just read Lichsteiner is touch and go. He has fractured his hand and may be able to play with a cast. Have to wait for confirmation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted May 14, 2011 Author Share Posted May 14, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Good point about Miccoli. He has today said that he will be playing for Palermo and 'my Lecce'. Plus he is the Captain so hopefully he'll encourage a few others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter22 Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Hi all, any info about game Chievo vs Udinese?....in my opinion this clubs fixiert games...Chievo is safe,but Udinese needs points to Qualification of Champions league.Very interesting are mutual games both clubs. http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/italy/italian-serie-a-2010-2011/nextmatch.php?matchid=6677713 This game is clear 3for3,but Udinese needs win....Against Udinese, coach Pioli seems very likely to give space to those players who, over the season, have played less. Udinese with full squad, only Angella and Coda are out I heard rumours about suspicious betting on correct score 2:3...Odds on Udinese are low...logical bet is HT/FT (Chievo/Udinese) @23.0 (188bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Italian Soccer 2010-2011 19W-7L-9P +12.20 units (73.07%) Palermo +1 (+113) to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Was gonna post some bullshit info but ultravires basically summed up anything I could say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petersson1984 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May I heard rumours about suspicious betting on correct score 2:3...Odds on Udinese are low...logical bet is HT/FT (Chievo/Udinese) @23.0 (188bet) Where do you got those rumours from? A friend or a more reliable source? Everybody can type in " I heard, this match is fix" and when you ask about the info they say "a friend told me". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Where do you got those rumours from? A friend or a more reliable source? Everybody can type in " I heard, this match is fix" and when you ask about the info they say "a friend told me". Come on guys, stop with that kid stuff. Just look at Betfair and you will find everything quite clear. Although it's disgraceful that BF is (silent) underwriter of this. matched udinese 2/2 % ML 428,633 422,048 98,46% HT/FT 453,345 449,193 99,08% SUM 881,978 871,241 98,78% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Just follow money there and keep your own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZAGO Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Catania - Roma under 2.5 goals - 2.4 @ bet365 looks nice .Any opinion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S. S. C. Napoli Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Hi all, any info about game Chievo vs Udinese?....in my opinion this clubs fixiert games...Chievo is safe,but Udinese needs points to Qualification of Champions league.Very interesting are mutual games both clubs. http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/italy/italian-serie-a-2010-2011/nextmatch.php?matchid=6677713 This game is clear 3for3,but Udinese needs win....Against Udinese, coach Pioli seems very likely to give space to those players who, over the season, have played less. Udinese with full squad, only Angella and Coda are out I heard rumours about suspicious betting on correct score 2:3...Odds on Udinese are low...logical bet is HT/FT (Chievo/Udinese) @23.0 (188bet) I remember Chievo-Sampdoria this year. 2 shots on goal in 90 minutes. Today it's not a matter of fixing games. Chievo just doesn't have any motivation. Di Natale and Sanchez both in great shape. Udinese away from Udine can win against any team. See the away win in Napoli!!! I think that the odds are fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S. S. C. Napoli Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Catania - Roma under 2.5 goals - 2.4 @ bet365 looks nice .Any opinion? Great odds! Surely worth the money. It won't be easy for Roma. And there is for sure motivation for Catania. In November 2006 Roma defeated Catania 7-0. I don't think that Catania players forgot about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckotheoirish Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May PALERMO +2AH @ 8/11....bet364+1....stakes 3/10.....Firstly thanks to Ultravirus for a great write up on this one.I've seen this a few times before(if nothing sinister is going on) and the price of the match is seriously skewed because one team has to win.Lincoln in England league 2 were money on in the last day of that league and Aldershot(7/2) won 3-0.Same in conference Altrincham were 4/9 to beat Eastbourne(11/2) and Eastbourne won 4-3. Anyway to guard against any possible dark dealings I'm going with the +2AH.Sampdoria have only won one match at home all season by more than 2 goals and that was against relegated Bari(3-0),who had a man sent off after 33 mins. Palermo aren't faboulous away but have only lost once on their travels by more than 2 goals.That was a 4-0 loss at Catania in the middle of their bad spell.They have only one loss in their last 7 and drew 2-2 away at Milan in the cup.They may of course have one eye on the final(29th) but I'm willing to take a chance that they can at least keep in touch with a poor Sampdoria team......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckotheoirish Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May PALERMO +2AH @ 8/11....bet364+1....stakes 3/10.....Firstly thanks to Ultravirus for a great write up on this one.I've seen this a few times before(if nothing sinister is going on) and the price of the match is seriously skewed because one team has to win.Lincoln in England league 2 were money on in the last day of that league and Aldershot(7/2) won 3-0.Same in conference Altrincham were 4/9 to beat Eastbourne(11/2) and Eastbourne won 4-3. Anyway to guard against any possible dark dealings I'm going with the +2AH.Sampdoria have only won one match at home all season by more than 2 goals and that was against relegated Bari(3-0),who had a man sent off after 33 mins. Palermo aren't faboulous away but have only lost once on their travels by more than 2 goals.That was a 4-0 loss at Catania in the middle of their bad spell.They have only one loss in their last 7 and drew 2-2 away at Milan in the cup.They may of course have one eye on the final(29th) but I'm willing to take a chance that they can at least keep in touch with a poor Sampdoria team......... 1-2,bet won.....thanks guys.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irefutabilul Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Sport Football (Italy) Event Napoli v Inter Selection Over 3.5 Strength 10/10 Date 15/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 3.50 Reasoning It looks like many people expect that this match will end up in a draw, the odds are also set in that way, but who said it will also be an under? First of all, I'm not even convinced that they will tie it. Napoli have a chance to finnish second and I'm not sure if they are interested to get involved in this as long as they can win their place in the Champions League on the pitch. Apart from that, both teams have got great strikers while both have had many problems at the back during the season. Cavani is out, OK, but Napoli is not all about Cavani. They've got Lavezzi up front and one of the best and most creative middles in the league which can create danger out of nothing. Inter, on the other hand, have always been a great striking force while Napoli never a disciplined defence...so all in all I think both team can make pay each other and offer a real show for the fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May Sampdoria vs. Palermo Palermo +1(AH) - 2.175 - 7 points - WIN Palermo win - 9.00 - 2 points - WIN Looked a bit shakey at times in the first-half but this match sums up Sampdoria since January. They had the better of the ball in the first but were very wasteful - although they did have a goal wrongfully disallowed. In the second half they showed far less desire, even after scoring. It's a shame they are going down but post-Jan they've been easily one of the worst in the league. A very nice win on this match. Lazio vs. Genoa Under 2.5 goals - 2.30 - 3 points - LOSS Luckily Palermo winning means I don't have to bitch about this game. However, considering how drab the first 45 mins were it's a wonder than 2 goals were scored. It was all over by then concerning the unders though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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