Tennis - 9-15 May

[Atko]

In here :ok

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May this was already mentioned by dizzyme in the last thread, so I am not claiming to be the one who suggested it first, but I just canot ignore ATP Rome R1 Raonic to bt Verdaso @2.200 Pinnacle Raonic was in superb form against Feliciano Lopez in Madrid, and it is hard to believe he could lose to Verdaso. Verdasco lost to Lu in Madrid, and this was mainly due to the good serve of the Thaipeanese. The more he should struggle against Raonic. Raonic had enough time to recover strength after Madrid, and he is going to crush the out of form Verdasco. also adding one WTA Bethanie Mattek-Sands to bt Flavia Pennetta @2.120 Pinnacle Pennetta is playing nothing since Doha this year. She did only beat Baltacha in IW R1, and that was all. Since then nothing. On the other hand, Bethanie seems to be gaining momentum. She did beat (out of form?) Ivanovic in Madrid, and it was apparent that she was mightily disappointed by her loss to Li-Na in the QF. IMO she is ready for another big run in Rome. 2.120 cannot be ignored. GL :hope

[flaskoncek]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Lay Verdasco at 1.76 Raonič 2:0 at 3.10 Bet365

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Men's Singles - Andy Murray 55.0 betfair Before you laugh consider that Murray has very little threatening players in his quarter. There's Melzer and that's it. The Scot will win his quarter in my opinion and then will play Djokovic. He won't be 55.0 to beat the Serb and so it's a definite opportunity to re-assess. Murray wasn't that bad in Madrid. He got caned by Bellucci but he kind of gave up against the Brazilian and I think he'll know he has to come out and make a statement here. He can't have missed how well Federer played against Nadal, which showed the Swiss is still to be feared. Murray needs to do that in Rome and I think he will at least make an effort. Will take this tomorrow rather than today as I want the market to level out a bit after Djokovic's win today. I'm also quite interested in Federer @18.0 on betfair The Swiss really gave Nadal a game in Madrid and was arguably the better player although he couldn't convert any of his break points. He too will know that he needs to put in some good performances and again, he won't be 18.0 to beat Nadal in the semi finals and it will be an opportunity to re-assess. I don't see Berdych/Gasquet/Monaco causing Fed any problems. If I back both these players, and they play to their abilities, I have a decent chance of having two semi finalists. Djokovic and Nadal have to tire eventually and although it's a risk to oppose the most likely finalists, I think it's maybe just worth trying. As I said, I won't jump on either tonight but I'd be very interested to hear what some of the tennis experts in here think....:ok

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Igor Andreev v Pere Riba Nobet I wont be opposing Riba this week. Andreev is a qualifier this week and warmed up and ready but he lost to Riba in qualies to Madrid last week in straight sets. This is to hard to call. Viktor Troicki v Nikolay Davydenko Davydenko 2-0 2.25 bet365 Not mutch to think about. Troicki has no form and his ranking is lying and this sure can't be another bad match from Davy. Against Troicki on clay he should get it done in 2 sets. Juan-Ignacio Chela v John Isner Isner 2.00 bet365 He does'nt get any younger Chela and he probably feels pretty ok about himself with last season and has a lack of motivation this year maybe. He just don't play good enough to win as mutch as last year. No wrong about picking Isner here I think. Ivan Ljubicic v Flavio Cipolla Cipolla 3.00 bet365 Possible upset again from Cipolla. Ljubo can't be trusted.

[AmericanCapper]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Potito Starace @1.869 over Dolgopolov DSI Sportsbook Good luck

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

Potito Starace @1.869 over Dolgopolov DSI Sportsbook Good luck

Welcome to the forum mate. We need a bit of reasoning to go with this though, so that others can understand why to follow this bet. Cheers :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

Men's Singles - Andy Murray 55.0 betfair Before you laugh consider that Murray has very little threatening players in his quarter. There's Melzer and that's it. The Scot will win his quarter in my opinion and then will play Djokovic. He won't be 55.0 to beat the Serb and so it's a definite opportunity to re-assess. Murray wasn't that bad in Madrid. He got caned by Bellucci but he kind of gave up against the Brazilian and I think he'll know he has to come out and make a statement here. He can't have missed how well Federer played against Nadal, which showed the Swiss is still to be feared. Murray needs to do that in Rome and I think he will at least make an effort. Will take this tomorrow rather than today as I want the market to level out a bit after Djokovic's win today. I'm also quite interested in Federer @18.0 on betfair The Swiss really gave Nadal a game in Madrid and was arguably the better player although he couldn't convert any of his break points. He too will know that he needs to put in some good performances and again, he won't be 18.0 to beat Nadal in the semi finals and it will be an opportunity to re-assess. I don't see Berdych/Gasquet/Monaco causing Fed any problems. If I back both these players, and they play to their abilities, I have a decent chance of having two semi finalists. Djokovic and Nadal have to tire eventually and although it's a risk to oppose the most likely finalists, I think it's maybe just worth trying. As I said, I won't jump on either tonight but I'd be very interested to hear what some of the tennis experts in here think....:ok

I wouldn't put you off backing Federer with a view to laying it off later in the week. Berdych would be the only player who concerns me but I don't think he's in good form either. Federer should be motivated - he has nothing to defend and thus can make an assault back towards no.1 in the rankings. He's never won Rome and I don't think he'll do it this year - conditions don't favour him - but he could easily make the semis. As for Murray, I'm not sure. He's always liable to lose to someone like Thomaz Bellucci on clay and has a dreadful history here. He's not gone past R32. Out of the top 5, he's the one who always looks the most vulnerable on this surface. He does have a nice draw but I've said that many times about the Scot, only for him to balls it up.

[Simao BVB]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May are this courts in Rome as fast as in Madrid or are much slower. I'm considering putting bets on Makarova against MJMS and on Bartoli against Parra Santonja...i know that MJMS is defending title from last year but i don't think her form in anywhere near the level from last year...also Stakhovsky against Hanescu if courts are fast

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

are this courts in Rome as fast as in Madrid or are much slower. I'm considering putting bets on Makarova against MJMS and on Bartoli against Parra Santonja...i know that MJMS is defending title from last year but i don't think her form in anywhere near the level from last year...also Stakhovsky against Hanescu if courts are fast

A lot slower.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Quiet first day in Rome, nothing standing out. Good luck to all that play :ok

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Weird that murray seems to underperform so much on the clay courts, when he was 14 he moved to spain, and played predominantely on clay for 4 straight years, you would really feel this would be his strongest surface:unsure, i think as you stated Atko he just has complete mentally blocks in the biggest of stages, but still would agree he is overpriced at $55 :1

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Simon -3.5 @ $1.97 sportingbet 9/10 Have really had issues with Roddicks game for the past two years, and his passiveness will not help in this one. Very slow courts in Rome, simon should be able to get alook in at roddicks serve, and i really feel he will exploit andy in baseline exchanges. Simon is the kind of guy who can get blown of the court, against big hitters due to his weak serve, but roddick isnt the kind of guy to exploit this, much prefers to chip and bunt it back and i feel this will lead to his detriment in this one:ok

[macdribble]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Hello all, I've been viewing here a while but finally thought I'd dip my toe in the water. Agree re:Simon and i'll be looking at taking that handicap myself. Had a look at the early WTA games and see some value in Zahlavova Strycova to beat Dominguez Lino. Better current form and for me Dominguez Lino is long past her best. Strycova should outlast her here.

[vlazar]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

Simon -3.5 @ $1.97 sportingbet 9/10 Have really had issues with Roddicks game for the past two years, and his passiveness will not help in this one. Very slow courts in Rome, simon should be able to get alook in at roddicks serve, and i really feel he will exploit andy in baseline exchanges. Simon is the kind of guy who can get blown of the court, against big hitters due to his weak serve, but roddick isnt the kind of guy to exploit this, much prefers to chip and bunt it back and i feel this will lead to his detriment in this one:ok

I totally agree with you, riddick is awfull at clay

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Hi guys, 2 picks for the ATP Rome tournament: SODERLING TO DEFEAT VERDASCO @ 1.52 on pinnaclesports BAGHDATIS-TSONGA OVER 21 GAMES @ 1.89 on pinnaclesports Verdasco is out-of-form this year losing a lot of matches to opponents like Lu last week in Madrid and Lu can't play on clay. Soderling played great last week and should be too consistent for Verdasco. Baghdatis with great return of serve and counter-attacking game will not allow Tsonga to win easily.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

Hello all, I've been viewing here a while but finally thought I'd dip my toe in the water. Agree re:Simon and i'll be looking at taking that handicap myself. Had a look at the early WTA games and see some value in Zahlavova Strycova to beat Dominguez Lino. Better current form and for me Dominguez Lino is long past her best. Strycova should outlast her here.

:welcome to PL macdribble, look forward to seeing more of you here.

[JezPX]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May I`ve been an avid reader but not a contributor of this forum for sometime now, so I guess its time I added a few of my own views of the various matches throughout the season. ATP ROME - Internazionali BNL D'Italia Xavier Malisse v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -3 @ 1.80 (Bet365) I think Lopez is one of those frustrating players who could win games much more comfortably if he could control his sudden lack of concentration which affects his gameplay to an extent where he finds himself being broken on too many occasions. In this match, I think he has a decent chance to progress at the expense of the Belgian Malisse, simply because in my opinion he is better on the clay and more importantly Malisse's lack of decent form. As long as he doesn`t panic, he should cover the handicap of -3 with relative ease. The speed of the courts in Rome should also be to Lopez's advantage, as Malisse will surely be affected by the slower surface. I`m more than happy to take the handicap and lets hope Lopez gets the job done. ;) I have to thank the regular posters on this section of the forum, for their superb analysis and information which have helped me to make a profit on more than one occasion. Cheers. Hoping for a profitable day! All the best, Jez

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Damn missed the roddick game now but think hes losing his powers! Defo one to lay from now on esp on clay. Will be doing cuevas and belucci doubles . Win and both 2-0 set wins. Cuevas and belucci definately the better players on clay, coming off decent recent performances aswell. Belucci may be tired a bit but his serve is very very strong. And i have not seen cuevas alot play but i know his results are better than kubot 90% of the time i look. Both betfair bets Cuevas at 1.4 and 2-0 at 1.8 Belucci at 1.3 and 2-0 at 1.7 Good luckin

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

Simon -3.5 @ $1.97 sportingbet 9/10 Have really had issues with Roddicks game for the past two years, and his passiveness will not help in this one. Very slow courts in Rome, simon should be able to get alook in at roddicks serve, and i really feel he will exploit andy in baseline exchanges. Simon is the kind of guy who can get blown of the court, against big hitters due to his weak serve, but roddick isnt the kind of guy to exploit this, much prefers to chip and bunt it back and i feel this will lead to his detriment in this one:ok

Came thru 6-3 6-3, played well pleasure to watch when his in full flight:ok happy to continue to oppose roddick on the red brick:lol

[macdribble]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Thanks for the welcome Atko. Shame about my first posted bet, despite Zahlavova-Strycova taking the second set 6-0 and getting to deuce on Dominguez Lino's serve in 3 seperate games and breaking twice in the decider she still managed to lose. Good shout on Simon which made up for the disappointment.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Also added stan wawrinka to beat fognini and berdych to beat monaco Same reasons as above better players better servers better form..although i dont like stan his odds are very appealing Stan 1.9 2-0 Berd 1.8 2-0 Good luck

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May I'm on 2 today: S. Giraldo @1.72 to beat M. Fish coral Fish is not good on clay and he's generally not very good in Europe. He lost to John Isner in Madrid. That was a pretty poor result and he was beaten by Kei Nishikori in Houston, which was also bad. Giraldo's a clay courter and he looked decent enough in Barcelona (beat Bellucci) and Madrid (beat Dolgopolov). He went out in those tournaments to Nadal and Soderling, no shame in either defeat. Odds are dropping and I think it's a good bet. Davydenko x Monfils @2.25 coral Two risky picks especially to put together but I'm going for it. Monfils pulled out of Madrid but that was due to an allergy to cheese (:rollin) so I don't think that's worth worrying about. Davydenko is really dodgy but I'm just hoping that Troicki's bad enough. Nothing too suspicious too suspicious on betfair either.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

I'm on 2 today: S. Giraldo @1.72 to beat M. Fish coral Fish is not good on clay and he's generally not very good in Europe. He lost to John Isner in Madrid. That was a pretty poor result and he was beaten by Kei Nishikori in Houston, which was also bad. Giraldo's a clay courter and he looked decent enough in Barcelona (beat Bellucci) and Madrid (beat Dolgopolov). He went out in those tournaments to Nadal and Soderling, no shame in either defeat. Odds are dropping and I think it's a good bet.

Couple of things I want to throw in about this bet, because it was one I was very close to taking it myself ... ... however, a few things worry me. Fish leads the H2H 2-0, the latter of the two wins coming earlier last year in the Davis Cup. It was the decisive rubber in Bogota on clay, and Fish won the final set 8-6. I can't help but think that gives Fish a massive psychological boost in this one. Giraldo's a good player, a man who could go places, but his game is all about flirting with the lines. He doesn't have much margin for error, and if it goes wrong, he'll lose this. Fish is one of the few Americans I respect on clay because he's a grafter, mentally and in his court game. I don't think he'll lie down here, against a player he'll revel against because of past experience. Take this match in one dimension though, and Giraldo should do it. He's more natural on clay (although he freely admits his best surface is hard) and moves better. But this week, crucially, he's not defending any ranking points. They are defending Madrid points this week, for a reason unbeknown to me. Giraldo broke onto the scene last year in Rome, beating Juan Carlos Ferrero and Philipp Kohlschreiber. But he's young, and has proven erratic. Could that haunt him here? Not so many weeks ago he was really struggling to beat Albert Ramos ... This sounds like I'm backing Fish. I'm not. At the same time, I'm not dismissing Giraldo. He should win this. The match intrigues me no end, because Giraldo stands out on paper, but I just can't do it. Mindless drivel over. I hope he wins for your bet ;)

[speedemon]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May What about Marcos Baghdatis vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga? I thinck there is value in Baghdatis.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

What about Marcos Baghdatis vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga? I thinck there is value in Baghdatis.

I think the price is too big on Baghdatis, but I can't say there's value, because I can't see him winning. Really struggled in recent months to make tangible progress in tournaments. Clay isn't really his thing. Could say the same about Tsonga but he has the serve to evade trouble and played more promisingly of late in Madrid. A match that offers nothing to me in terms of betting, although I'd agree that the price on Baghdatis does appear unjustifiably big. Why do you think there is value in Baghdatis?

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Meant to say aswell - and this probably belongs in last week's thread - a massive well done to Czech Punter on his Petra Kvitova outright call in Madrid last week. I hope you spend those 9/1 winnings well :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

Couple of things I want to throw in about this bet, because it was one I was very close to taking it myself ... ... however, a few things worry me. Fish leads the H2H 2-0, the latter of the two wins coming earlier last year in the Davis Cup. It was the decisive rubber in Bogota on clay, and Fish won the final set 8-6. I can't help but think that gives Fish a massive psychological boost in this one. Giraldo's a good player, a man who could go places, but his game is all about flirting with the lines. He doesn't have much margin for error, and if it goes wrong, he'll lose this. Fish is one of the few Americans I respect on clay because he's a grafter, mentally and in his court game. I don't think he'll lie down here, against a player he'll revel against because of past experience. Take this match in one dimension though, and Giraldo should do it. He's more natural on clay (although he freely admits his best surface is hard) and moves better. But this week, crucially, he's not defending any ranking points. They are defending Madrid points this week, for a reason unbeknown to me. Giraldo broke onto the scene last year in Rome, beating Juan Carlos Ferrero and Philipp Kohlschreiber. But he's young, and has proven erratic. Could that haunt him here? Not so many weeks ago he was really struggling to beat Albert Ramos ... This sounds like I'm backing Fish. I'm not. At the same time, I'm not dismissing Giraldo. He should win this. The match intrigues me no end, because Giraldo stands out on paper, but I just can't do it. Mindless drivel over. I hope he wins for your bet ;)

Interesting to hear your thoughts Atko. A lot of the doubts which you raise are ones that I had myself but in the end it was the price that swung it for me. Giraldo's price has dropped significantly since it opened. It was about 2.00 but has since plummeted to 1.70 on betfair, with over £100k of the £140k matches on the Colombian. Roddick's defeat earlier was also a blow for Fish. I know the two are good friends and were travelling together (Fish posted pics on twitter of them sightseeing/larking about). This suggests to me that they're not 100% focused (although Roddick was always going to lose). As you said, Giraldo came through qualifying and reached the 3rd round here last year before losing to Tsonga (who was good at the time). I think that psychologically having played well somewhere is more important than the motivation of defending ranking points. It could go either way but I think that just enough points to a win for Giraldo to make it worthwhile, may regret it in the end though..

[JezPX]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

I`ve been an avid reader but not a contributor of this forum for sometime now, so I guess its time I added a few of my own views of the various matches throughout the season. ATP ROME - Internazionali BNL D'Italia Xavier Malisse v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -3 @ 1.80 (Bet365) I think Lopez is one of those frustrating players who could win games much more comfortably if he could control his sudden lack of concentration which affects his gameplay to an extent where he finds himself being broken on too many occasions. In this match, I think he has a decent chance to progress at the expense of the Belgian Malisse, simply because in my opinion he is better on the clay and more importantly Malisse's lack of decent form. As long as he doesn`t panic, he should cover the handicap of -3 with relative ease. The speed of the courts in Rome should also be to Lopez's advantage, as Malisse will surely be affected by the slower surface. I`m more than happy to take the handicap and lets hope Lopez gets the job done. ;) I have to thank the regular posters on this section of the forum, for their superb analysis and information which have helped me to make a profit on more than one occasion. Cheers. Hoping for a profitable day! All the best, Jez

Very disappointing game from Lopez :\

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 9-15 May

I'm on 2 today: S. Giraldo @1.72 to beat M. Fish coral Fish is not good on clay and he's generally not very good in Europe. He lost to John Isner in Madrid. That was a pretty poor result and he was beaten by Kei Nishikori in Houston, which was also bad. Giraldo's a clay courter and he looked decent enough in Barcelona (beat Bellucci) and Madrid (beat Dolgopolov). He went out in those tournaments to Nadal and Soderling, no shame in either defeat. Odds are dropping and I think it's a good bet.

An awful performance from Giraldo. He was 2-0 up in the third set then fell apart. His serve stats were something like 80>60>40 for the three sets. Fish was very beatable today and didn't really change his game at all. Feel very let down by this one. :@