v-zero Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Nobody likes variance. Variance is what puts fear in your belly. You've back tested to the high heavens and found that season-long a profit is there, but, variance will make sure you have your down days, down weeks, down months, and that puts a dent in you, makes you doubt it all. How then, to tackle variance? Well, make bets with the lowest expected variance, of course! Which bets would those be? The bets on favourites. Of course, betting on what the book says is the favourite is a quick way to the poor house, but betting on overpriced favourites, according to your own calculations, can be profitable. So, I'll be posting selections here, all to be placed at level stakes, lets say a single unit, with odds from Betfair. I expect to see around a 50% strike rate, fingers crossed.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted April 30, 2011 Author Share Posted April 30, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds Here's the picks for tomorrow. One point on each. Breda @ 3.25 Excelsior @ 3.75 Roda JC @ 2.48 Birmingham @ 2.22 Chievo @ 2.62 Beira-Mar @ 2.94 Nacional @ 3.5 Porto @ 1.65 Villarreal @ 1.83 Valencia @ 2.62 Eskisehirspor @ 2.76 :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds The Results are in: Breda @ 3.25 LOSS: -1 Excelsior @ 3.75 WIN: + 2.6125 Roda JC @ 2.48 LOSS: -1 Birmingham @ 2.22 LOSS: -1 Chievo @ 2.62 WIN: +1.539 Beira-Mar @ 2.94 LOSS: -1 Nacional @ 3.5 WIN: +2.375 Porto @ 1.65 WIN: +0.6175 Villarreal @ 1.83 WIN: +0.7885 Valencia @ 2.62 LOSS: -1 Eskisehirspor @ 2.76 LOSS: -1 Strike Rate: 45.5% Profit: +1.3935 ROI: 12.7% Performed below expectations today, but can't really sniff at it. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI Good start, V-Zero....... I would check your ROI..... 1.3935 units profit on 11 units stake = 12.7% ROI ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI Good start' date= V-Zero....... I would check your ROI..... 1.3935 units profit on 11 units stake = 12.7% ROI ;)Indeed, why I divided by six I will never know. My mind was elsehwhere... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI Is there a reason why you're flat betting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI Is there a reason why you're flat betting? For the sake of simplicity? What would you suggest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI What is your definition of a "favourite" ? A football team at odds of 3.xx+ can hardly be called a favourite imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI What is your definition of a "favourite" ? A football team at odds of 3.xx+ can hardly be called a favourite imo. Any team I calculate to have a chance of winning of better than one in three. The odds do not always reflect the true favourite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI Two bets for this evening: Le Mans @ 3.8 Espanyol @ 2.7 :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI v-zero, sounds interesting. good luck. bet on asian handicap will increase your profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI v-zero, sounds interesting. good luck. bet on asian handicap will increase your profit. What grounding do you have for that? All of my testing suggests that handicaps reduce value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI example Evian - Le mans : bookmaker : pinnacle ML --> 2.30 - 3.30 - 3.53 (payout = 97.89%) AH -0.25 --> 1.962 - 1.962 (payout = 98.06%) Expected return is better for asian. ER is higher on the minor league. so, if your testing suggests that AH reduce value... GL :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI example Evian - Le mans : bookmaker : pinnacle ML --> 2.30 - 3.30 - 3.53 (payout = 97.89%) AH -0.25 --> 1.962 - 1.962 (payout = 98.06%) Expected return is better for asian. ER is higher on the minor league. so, if your testing suggests that AH reduce value... GL :) The overround of the bookmaker is not of importance to my system, but hedging, which is what asian bets do, generally reduces value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 12.7% ROI One from two tonight, and a very nice evening for me, with Norwich securing a premier league spot :loon Le Mans @ 3.8 LOSS: -1 Espanyol @ 2.7 WIN: +1.615 Strike Rate: 46.2% Profit: +2.01 ROI: 15.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI For anybody interested I have the Dallas Mavericks as having a 57% chance of taking the Lakers tonight in their first playoff game, and at odds of 3.6 they look pretty nice. Should at least cover the spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI For anybody interested I have the Dallas Mavericks as having a 57% chance of taking the Lakers tonight in their first playoff game' date=' and at odds of 3.6 they look pretty nice. Should at least cover the spread.[/quote'] agreed. the odds seem a bit high for what dallas is capable of.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI For the sake of simplicity? What would you suggest? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion You're calculating an edge when you're making these picks, flat betting isn't optimal. But agreed its easier. You're doing well so far, gl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion You're calculating an edge when you're making these picks, flat betting isn't optimal. But agreed its easier. You're doing well so far, gl. Flat betting is indeed not optimal. However, it is an easy way to see whether there is a true edge, which is important to those who haven't back tested like I have. I know there is an edge, a large one, but they cannot verify this themselves. The Kelly criterion is incredibly difficult to apply to simultaneous bets, involving multiples and all sorts of trickery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI The Kelly criterion is incredibly difficult to apply to simultaneous bets, involving multiples and all sorts of trickery. the devil's work, no doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI the devil's work' date=' no doubt[/quote'] Indeed :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI With access to some new data I have a pick for today from Singapore...:rollin Hougang @ 1.59 EDIT: And one from Romania. Gaz Metan Medias @ 3.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI One for Denmark: FC Midtjylland @ 2.56 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Europa league: Braga @ 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Hi V-zero, Do you mind me asking where you get info on leagues like Singapore, Romania, Denmark etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI It's from Betexplorer.com... I use this: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f23/extracting-fixtures-soccerway-now-betexplorer-58872/ I need the data in spreadsheet format to feed it into my program, so findign that today was a seriosu boon. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Colombia anybody? La Equidad @3.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Hi V-Zero thanks for that. I asked this Q on other forum but assume that site doesn't have data like shots on goal, corners, possession stats etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Hi V-Zero. I assume this site doesn't have same depth of stats as football-data for all those leagues i.e. shots, corners etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 13 bets, 15.5% ROI Hi V-Zero I assume site doesn't have same level of detail as football-data i.e. shots, corners etc. Any ideas where this could be got for minor leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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