Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May

[ultravires]

	Saturday 30 April 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Cesena v Internazionale (17:00 BST)	4.6	3.5	1.97	101.07 %
	Napoli v Genoa (19:45 BST)	1.36	5.7	12	99.21 %
	Sunday 1 May 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	AC Milan v Bologna (14:00 BST)	1.25	6.6	15	101.82 %
	Catania v Cagliari (14:00 BST)	1.42	4.6	9	103.27 %
	Chievo v Lecce (14:00 BST)	2.78	2.32	4.7	100.35 %
	Fiorentina v Udinese (14:00 BST)	2.68	3.4	2.82	102.19 %
	Parma v Palermo (14:00 BST)	2.04	3.4	4.75	99.48 %
	Sampdoria v Brescia (14:00 BST)	1.9	3.85	4.6	100.34 %
	Bari v AS Roma (19:45 BST)	10	5.5	1.35	102.26 %
	Monday 2 May 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Lazio v Juventus (19:45 BST)	2.15	3.3	4.1	101.20 %

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May Very little that tempts me regarding 1X2 or even Asian handicaps. I'll have to have a snoop later in the week. Will probably not be much action though.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May I've taken what I am interested in early as I may not be back later in the week. I have managed to find a couple of things that interest me. Milan vs. Bologna Milan can more or less affirm themselves as champions with a win in this match. Given Bologna's form that is looking almost certain. Bologna have rolled over for the last 4 matches given their perceived safety. Malesani oversaw a similar slide that saw his Chievo team relegated a few years ago. He has said it is purely motivational and they will be working to rectify it in training. They are now only 5 points ahead of the drop and while relegation is still improbable, their safety is not certain. They have matches against Parma and Bari from which to grab points but I'm hoping they show more steel than in recent weeks. They have more or less their full-stength team with only Garics and Perez as notable absentees. They'll play 4-3-1-2 and hope to stifle Milan as best they can and hope for the odd opportunity. Milan were underwhelming against Brescia. The concerns over a Robinho/Cassano attack came true and they failed to dispatch their chances. They are built on a rock solid foundation and don't expect Bologna to trouble them in any way - despite MvB suspended. Gattuso - Pirlo - Seedorf is expected but maybe Flamini instead of Dorf. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same relative 'struggle' to freely score in this match. Bologna will play in their own half and I'm hoping they give it a good crack. Under 3 goals - 1.85 - 4 points - Bet365 Under 2.5 goals is 2.35 at the moment which was tempting, but I took full cover on the 3 goals instead. Lazio vs. Juventus Interesting clash here. Lazio have been dominant at home and that has been based on a rock solid D. They have played quite consistently with 2-ish defensive minded midfielders and that wont change. In fact it is expected that there will be 3 of them (Matuzalem, Brocchi, Ladesma). This is driven by Mauri's absence. 4-3-1-2 will mean a solid foudnation allowing Hernanes, Zarate and Floccari absolute freedom to do whatever. It's possible that one of the two CM's could drop out with Gonzales joining Hernanes and Zarate behind Floccari (4-2-3-1). There isn't that much difference in two - one is slightly more defensive. A trend I have sometimes noticed with Lazio is that their clear division i.e. 'you lot defend, you lot attack' can leave them short of numbers going forward and they rely on indivual magic ala Zarate last week. Juventus will play same old 4-4-2. Not sure how much joy they will get out of this Lazio given their D game. Krasic, Del Piero, Aquilani blow hot and cold and Lazio are a mean team - generally. In short I can see Juventus struggling to crack Lazio and I'm hoping to see Lazio a bit thin going forward. Juventus have risen time and again to the 'big' matches but Lazio don't want to lose this match. A point is acceptable but a hard fought win is desired. I favour the home side, but I'm on unders. Under 2.5 - 1.95 - 2 points - Bet365 Elsewhere - I'm not going to write it up as such because there are many different views taken on this match (Catania vs. Cagliari). Regardless of any iffy 'motivational' factors I think Catania are very short. Yes they are in a dog fight and in theory are the only team that want to win the match - as Cagliari are in no mans land. They have been for ages and have had mixed results for a while. They do score goals and Cossu - Lazzari - Aqua will always create chances against lower sides. Catania will still have to come and win, providing Cagliari don't actually let them. I'm nibbling on - Cagliari double chance - 3.20 - Bet365

[ValueHunter]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May

Elsewhere - I'm not going to write it up as such because there are many different views taken on this match (Catania vs. Cagliari). Regardless of any iffy 'motivational' factors I think Catania are very short. Yes they are in a dog fight and in theory are the only team that want to win the match - as Cagliari are in no mans land. They have been for ages and have had mixed results for a while. They do score goals and Cossu - Lazzari - Aqua will always create chances against lower sides. Catania will still have to come and win, providing Cagliari don't actually let them. I'm nibbling on - Cagliari double chance - 3.20 - Bet365

I might follow you on this one, I remember Cagliari were supposed to lose on the road against Lecce just two rounds ago but Lecce were lucky to get a point equalizing in the stoppage time. We have kind of the same situation here and the odds are great.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May The Lecce match was a similar situation as you mention VH. One more for me this weekend: Parma vs. Palermo Parma will be feeling pretty unfortunate as they have won two great matches yet are still only 3 points above the drop. They've shown a far better attitude under their new manager and look as though they could survive. Zaccardo (their best defender) is suspended, Angelo, Palladino are out injured while Amauri is doubtful. Not sure whether he'll make it but he has been a vital player of late. Palermo miss Pinilla and Miccoli who are both important players. The former has been playing very well of late. Their attacking riches are still evident with Hernandez supported by Pastore and Illicic. They too have played very well since Delio Rossi has returned and they have feint hopes of EL qualification. They have their first-choice back four are available but that is by no means assuring with this team. I think there will be goals in this match and can see both sides duke it out. Parma have shown attacking intent recently and Palermo are adept at counter-attacking. Should be a pretty nice match and I think Palermo can be taken on the DNB line here: Palermo (0) - 3.10 - 3 points - Bet365

[wizard]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May crazy turn around for the inter milan bettors! :clap

[bocca]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May Hi guys, Sorry for last week :/ The Bari - Samp game went all wrong (Samp won it by a penalty) and Juve vs Catania resulted into a draw ( Shitty Juve let Catania score twice in last couple of minutes). This week I have 3 bets which might interest you. Milan - Bologna This game is the easiest (on paper) that is left for Milan. They will have to win this and than any draw will be sufficient for the title. Bologna on the other hand are at 40 points in the table, secure (they only need 1 more point to make sure that they stay in Serie A). Bologna have lost their last 4 games! Bari - Roma Bari mathematically relegated to Serie B will face Roma who want to gain a place in the EC. They need max points and this game is one of the easiest for them. Next week Roma will face Milan! To add insult to injury Bari have some key players out! We are refering to Okaka, Kutuzov, Barreto, Rudolf, Castillo and Masiello (all regularly starting players). Roma will be missing only Mexes and Loria. Parma - Palermo Unlike the previous two, this is a tricky one. Palermo need points for a chance in EC while Parma need points to stay in Serie A. Bookies are favouring Parma. Parma will be missing key players Palladino and Zaccardo and possibly Amauri while Palermo will be without Miccoli and Bovo. Milan - Bologna = 1 Bari - Roma = 2 Parma - Palermo = Bet void if draw, Palermo win

[AGurv]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May Italian Soccer 2010-2011 17W-7L-9P +10.20 units (70.83%) Fiorentina pick -135 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes The only reverse psychology line? Udinese running shockingly well on the road while Fiorentina running shockingly shitty at home. Though they have faced some tough competition the last couple months at home. I think both fortunes reverse today.

[artist]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May

Sport	Football (Italy)
Event	Fiorentina - Udinese
Selection	Udinese
Strength	10/10
Date	01/05/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.32
Reasoning	I think Udinese will win this one, because they are in a good race for Champions League, this season. They gave away a lot of points in exchange for money if you're to ask me against Parma, Lecce and so on, but they proved they can be very very strong when they won away to Napoli without their strikers. No hesitation for me here, away win.

[HastGill1]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May

I've taken what I am interested in early as I may not be back later in the week. I have managed to find a couple of things that interest me. Milan vs. Bologna Milan can more or less affirm themselves as champions with a win in this match. Given Bologna's form that is looking almost certain. Bologna have rolled over for the last 4 matches given their perceived safety. Malesani oversaw a similar slide that saw his Chievo team relegated a few years ago. He has said it is purely motivational and they will be working to rectify it in training. They are now only 5 points ahead of the drop and while relegation is still improbable, their safety is not certain. They have matches against Parma and Bari from which to grab points but I'm hoping they show more steel than in recent weeks. They have more or less their full-stength team with only Garics and Perez as notable absentees. They'll play 4-3-1-2 and hope to stifle Milan as best they can and hope for the odd opportunity. Milan were underwhelming against Brescia. The concerns over a Robinho/Cassano attack came true and they failed to dispatch their chances. They are built on a rock solid foundation and don't expect Bologna to trouble them in any way - despite MvB suspended. Gattuso - Pirlo - Seedorf is expected but maybe Flamini instead of Dorf. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same relative 'struggle' to freely score in this match. Bologna will play in their own half and I'm hoping they give it a good crack. Under 3 goals - 1.85 - 4 points - Bet365 Under 2.5 goals is 2.35 at the moment which was tempting, but I took full cover on the 3 goals instead. Lazio vs. Juventus Interesting clash here. Lazio have been dominant at home and that has been based on a rock solid D. They have played quite consistently with 2-ish defensive minded midfielders and that wont change. In fact it is expected that there will be 3 of them (Matuzalem, Brocchi, Ladesma). This is driven by Mauri's absence. 4-3-1-2 will mean a solid foudnation allowing Hernanes, Zarate and Floccari absolute freedom to do whatever. It's possible that one of the two CM's could drop out with Gonzales joining Hernanes and Zarate behind Floccari (4-2-3-1). There isn't that much difference in two - one is slightly more defensive. A trend I have sometimes noticed with Lazio is that their clear division i.e. 'you lot defend, you lot attack' can leave them short of numbers going forward and they rely on indivual magic ala Zarate last week. Juventus will play same old 4-4-2. Not sure how much joy they will get out of this Lazio given their D game. Krasic, Del Piero, Aquilani blow hot and cold and Lazio are a mean team - generally. In short I can see Juventus struggling to crack Lazio and I'm hoping to see Lazio a bit thin going forward. Juventus have risen time and again to the 'big' matches but Lazio don't want to lose this match. A point is acceptable but a hard fought win is desired. I favour the home side, but I'm on unders. Under 2.5 - 1.95 - 2 points - Bet365 Elsewhere - I'm not going to write it up as such because there are many different views taken on this match (Catania vs. Cagliari). Regardless of any iffy 'motivational' factors I think Catania are very short. Yes they are in a dog fight and in theory are the only team that want to win the match - as Cagliari are in no mans land. They have been for ages and have had mixed results for a while. They do score goals and Cossu - Lazzari - Aqua will always create chances against lower sides. Catania will still have to come and win, providing Cagliari don't actually let them. I'm nibbling on - Cagliari double chance - 3.20 - Bet365

Thanks for the Milan tip dude, Milan created little and weren't clicking at all in the final third. Bologna could easily have snatched the draw..

[spkutano]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May Bari - Roma Pick: Under 2.5 goals Probable starting eleven: Bari: Gillet; Masiello, Glik, Rossi, Parisi; Bentivoglio, Almiron, Gazzi; Huseklepp, Rivas; Ghezzal Roma: Doni; Cassetti, Burdisso, Juan, Riise; Pizarro, De Rossi; Taddei, Perrotta, Vucinic; Totti Roma is big favorite here, but I don't think they will have an easy job at Stadio San Nicola. I believe we will see a tight match and not many goals. Both teams played low efficient games in the previous round. Roma won only 1:0 against Chievo. The only goal was scored by Simone Perrotta. I saw that game and my opinion is that Roma strikers are totally out of form. I was disappointed from Vucinic performance for example. On other side Bari played Under 2.5 in the last three rounds. Here are the results: 23.04. Bari - Sampdoria 0:1 17.04. Cesena - Bari 1:0 10.04. Bari - Catania 1:1 Finally I will mention that the last two mutual games ended with Under 2.5 goals both. In fact both games ended with Under 1.5 goals. The reverse fixture played this season on 12.12.2010 ended with 1:0 Roma victory (Juan was the scorer), while the last game played in Bari (03.04.2010) ended with the same result (Mirko Vucinic was scorer).

[grieksken]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May strange that in Lazio-Juventus the -2.5 is @ 2.. any idea why?

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May Assuming that you mean under 2.5 it is only a slight movement. I don't think it is down to anything in particular. Chiellini has been confirmed to make it at CB, but he was always going to. Interestingly the papers are predicting a 4-4-2 from Lazio which strikes me as strange. Ledesma and Matuzalem/Brocchi will do the same as always - predominantly sit and pass the ball around. Hernanes is put on RM while Bresciano is at LM. Doesn't strike me as being to their strengths really. Hernanes is not a winger. Bresciano will fill in nicely and do a steady job. I guess they want to match Juventus in terms of formation. Zarate may benefit from being closer to Floccari. Doesn't change my thoughts on the match.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May Lazio seem to be getting more defensive with each and every post.:lol Muslera; Lichtsteiner, Biava, Dias, Garrido; Hernanes, Ledesma, Matuzem, Brocchi, Floccari, Zarate That will in all likelihood be a 4-3-1-2. Playing Hernanes and Brocchi on the wings would make little sense.

[grieksken]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May 0-1.. nice call of the under 2.5 goals scored

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 30 April - 2 May

Milan vs. Bologna - Under 3 goals - 1.85 - 4 points - WIN Lazio vs. Juventus - Under 2.5 - 1.95 - 2 points - WIN

Parma vs. Palermo - Palermo (0) - 3.10 - 3 points - LOSS

Milan match went to plan with them wasting several good chances. Bologna came back the second half though and did better. Got bored watch the Lazio - Juventus match which is always good for the unders. Shame about Palermo. They got suckered by Parma and couldn't break through to maximise their possession. They are certainly a shout for the worst D in the league. Also a negligible loss on Cagliari. A couple points profit for the weekend which isn't great, but profit nonetheless.