Tennis 25 April - 1 May

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Had another look this morning and decided in the end to take a further two. Michael Berrer vs Albert Montanes- Montanes -4.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Line looks a game too low for me so I'll take the Spaniard with the (4.5) Berrer plays his besy stuff on the quicker indoor courts but on clay he really does struggle. Ramos beat him easily last week in the Monte-Carlo qualifiers, bagelling him in the second set whilst Hanescu beat him in straight sets the week before that. Yesterday he struggled to beat an Austrian qualifier, being taken all the way to 3 sets and offering 10 break points to his opponent. Montanes in truth blew it last week against Melzer after taking the first set but he should have way too much for Berrer in this one. He hasn't played since that Melzer match so fatigue won't be a problem, and despite when watching him last week he wasn't playing brilliantly, he should win this one with ease in truth. They've met once, back in 07 at Wimbledon which Berrer won hands down. Doesn't mean anything really, and on clay, it should be a completely different match with a completely different outcome. Have picked out one for the women as well. Sara Errani vs Maria Elena Camerin- Under 18.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Picked the unders here over the handicap simply down to price alone as either way, I can't see Errani struggling in this one. Camerin is a lucky loser here after getting beat in her qualifying match by a girl ranked 147. She did however beat Rodina though which was a suprising result in truth, but today she faces a much greater test in Italian who is in pretty decent form. On clay recently, she hammered the likes of Barrois and Dulgheru, players which are alot better than Camerin and in the Fed Cup, she gave Pavlyuchenkova a run for her money, narrowly losing in two tie breaks. Yesterday she dropped just one game in her match against a Spaniard who would have had the crowds backing, showing that Errani isn't phased by surrounding factors, and her head is very much on her game. They have played once before, where Errani lost the first set in a tie break but won the second and third sets very comfortably. Hopefully she won't have a sluggish start today like she did back in 08, and if she starts well, this should be over fairly quickly. Can't see it being worse than a 6-3 6-3 though so taking the unders here.

[crack]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Juan Martin del Potro - Alejandro Falla
Selection	Alejandro Falla
Strength	5/10
Date	27/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 8.00
Reasoning	Maybe I'm an optimist but I think that Alejandro Falla will win this match. Alejandro is not top player but he can play fantastic. Alejandro Falal is left-handed so del Potro can have some problems. In my opinion Falla is difficult player for del Potro. They played 2 times and del Potr won only one match after three sets. Alejandro Falla yesterday played against Pablo Andujar and he showed really nice tennis. He was serving great: 1st Serve Points Won 69% (27/39) 2nd Serve Points Won 85% (22/26) Alejandro Falla's second service looks fantastic! In my opinion odds are too high so I see value in this option. For example in myBet we can see odd 5,70, in centrebet we can see odd 8,00! Alejandro is difficult player for Del Potro and I see close match here!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Early stuff for Thursday in Belgrade Mischa Zverev +5 AH vs Janko Tipsarevic. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Ridiculous odds for sure. Tipsarevic should never ever be rated at 1.20 even more so on clay. He's played only 4 matches over past 12 months on this surface and has won just once - here in the first round against Nishikori but only in three sets. Zverev with more experience on this surface and has beaten Tipsa in their only match on clay which was 5 years ago in a Challenger event. Had Zverev not been totally brainless might have tried him @ 4.80 but will play safe here and have just a handicap which is massive five games and can't see Tipsarevic beating this line. Viktor Troicki -4 AH vs Marcel Granollers. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Have to fancy Troicki to do the job in his home tournament. Granollers can play some tennis on clay but is mentally crap and can go asleep in matches when something is going against him. This match of course will be played in Belgrade, the home tournament of Troicki. As we know, Serbian fans can be really mad and I can see Granollers struggling mentally in conditions like that. Troicki beat him convincingly here two years ago 6-3, 6-4 and I can see similar scoreline this time as well. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -4 AH vs Somdev Devvarman. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Was saying this in the first round, Devvarman not really a clay court player and was lucky to beat Kukushkin who probably beat himself in that match. GGL destroyed Devvarman a month ago in Houston also on clay 6-4, 6-1 and even could afford to be broken two times. Devvarman had 13 break points against him in previous round which is just not good enough.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Had another look this morning and decided in the end to take a further two. Michael Berrer vs Albert Montanes- Montanes -4.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10)- WIN Sara Errani vs Maria Elena Camerin- Under 18.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10)- WIN

How Monty covered the handicap after losing the first set 6-3 was a welcomed suprise. Glad I took these two this morning though.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

I'll take two tomorrow to kick off my tennis for this week. Can't see anything for the women, and was planning on taking handicaps on Montanes and Roger-Vasselin but price is too short. Anyways just these two for me. Potito Starace vs Sergiy Stakhovsky- Starace -3.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10)- WIN Teymuraz Gabashvili vs Florian Mayer- Mayer -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10)- LOSS

Starace was impressive against Stakhovsky. Mayer's a chump for not covering the handicap. Had break points to do so but couldn't take them.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May 3/5 for the 2nd day in a row. Winners: Barrois, Razzano and Djokovic unders Losers: Gonzalez and Youzhny. Gonza had enough chances but being a clown (again) did not help and Youzhny had a shocker in the 3rd set. Really brain-dead performance. Anyway + for the day for the 3rd consecutive day this week :ok

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Two more selections for Thursday making 5 in total, just like last two days. WTA Estoril Kristina Barrois 2bt Alisa Kleybanova. 2.61 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Sticking with Barrois for the 2nd match in a row in Estoril. Kleybanova not really enjoying herself on clay and I reckon she will lose today. Basically there are obvious match-up problems for the Russian player. Like I've said so many times before Barrois is one of very few players who uses a lot of slices and dropshots. I can imagine that she will force Kleybanova chase a lot of balls. Alisa is very good at covering the baseline but going towards the net is real weakness to her game. Kleybanova with huge power but Barrois has got more options and variety to her game, besides she can also serve, perhaps not as good as Alisa but still producing decent numbers. Her serve & volley game should be a nightmare for the Russian. They haven't played before but the adjustment should be easier for the German player as Barrois played similar player to Klebybanova in Vesnina on Wednesday and beat her in straight sets. Kleybanova was broken seven times by Johansson and that is not good stats for her. Overpriced odds and I'm happy to back the underdog in this one. Johanna Larsson 2bt Alla Kudryavtseva. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Really, really good offer on Larsson. Have seen her play and clay is her thing. She has good serve and forehand and actually would be able to have good results on hard but is performing better on clay. Kudryavtseva on the other hand not much of a clay court player and has had two very tough matches. She beat Rodionova in the first round after was set and 5-1 down in the 2nd set tie-break and also got past Oprandi in close two sets. Lots of energy wasted, Larsson couple easy wins and interestingly enough she leads their H2H series. The only win was recorded back in 2007 on hard in Challenger tournament in Hammond (USA). Larrson won 6-2, 6-3 and we have to remember that Larsson was nobody player back then and had her break through year last season. Backing the Swede to win.

[valve]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Gil (vs Verdasco) @ 2.22 (pinnacle) - stake 6/10 Couldn't overlook this one. Verdasco on a slump recently, and Gil will for sure give all he's got to get a win here. After all it's his home tournament. Also he defends last years final here. Verdasco didn't defend some serious amount of points in last weeks, and needs his batteries to be recharged for RG. Gil also made unexpected performance @ Monte Carlo where he reached QF and proved he can currently cope with decent players on clay. Home players usually do well in 250 tournaments, so expecting Gil to prevail here. Delic (vs Duclos) (2:0) @ 1.83 (bet365) - stake 7/10 Delic (vs Duclos) (u21.5) @ 1.80 (bet365) - stake 5/10 Amer on his way back after serious injury. Took Harrison out in first round, served decently. Duclos is a hard court player who had troubles with young american Collarini in first round and has only played 4 matches on clay, including american har-tru. If Amer is up to his level he shouldn't have problems here. Just a big class difference.

[BobNL]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Kristina Barrois 2bt Alisa Kleybanova. 2.61 @ Pinnacle (5/10)

Already dropped to 2.07 on Pinnacle.....no play for me :cry

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Two for me tomorrow. Also still waiting on Mayer with the handicap tomorrow to try and make it a full house for me today. Carlos Berlocq vs Gilles Simon- Simon -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Have to go with the player who has more quality in this one, which is the Frenchman. Berlocq rarely plays on any surface other than clay but most of the tournaments he enters are challengers with very average players involved. Simon although he missed the clay season last year, has shown in the past that he's no mug on the clay. A few weeks back be beat Gil, and over in Monte-Carlo he beat Montanes and Bellucci in straight sets. All 3 of these guys are better players than Berlocq and if Simon plays how he has done in the past few weeks, he should be comfortable here. Berlocq lost to Blake amazingly on clay over in Houston a few weeks back which just underlines the difference in class between these two guys. Simon has covered the handicap in both meetings between the two, including a match on clay back in 07. He should make it 3 in a row tomorrow. Radek Stepanek vs Dustin Brown- Brown +3.5 handicap- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10) Bit suprised about the pricing on this one. Brown just beat Wawrinka with an impressive performance, serving aces which went into double figures. Stepanek dropped a set against the severely out of form Andrey Golubev, who had lost 5 in a row before that match which doesn't fill me with confidence for Stepanek. Saw last week against Raonic how he struggles against guys with a big serve and strong groundstrokes, and that is what Brown offers. Really big first serve, he even caused Murray problems last year I remember who is one of the best returners about. Brown will get a lot of cheap points on serve and should be able to keep this one tight and perhaps even nick a set of Stepanek. At above evens, happy to back the apparant 'German' Brown with the handicap.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Teymuraz Gabashvili anyone? I was thinking he can beat Florian Mayer. Gabashvili has a 3-1 h2h record and he prefers any surface. He's not great but against a player like Mayer he should have good chance to win. Mayers level can drop just like Wawrinkas or Soderlings level does some matches. He's not the most consistent player but surely the most consistent german since a few months back. Gabashvili (+4.5) 2bt Flo Mayer 1.72 bet365 Gabashvili straight win 4.00 bet365

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Teymuraz Gabashvili anyone? I was thinking he can beat Florian Mayer. Gabashvili has a 3-1 h2h record and he prefers any surface. He's not great but against a player like Mayer he should have good chance to win. Mayers level can drop just like Wawrinkas or Soderlings level does some matches. He's not the most consistent player but surely the most consistent german since a few months back. Gabashvili (+4.5) 2bt Flo Mayer 1.72 bet365 Gabashvili straight win 4.00 bet365

Agree on Gaba here and handicap looks really good. Won't play myself, though because the Russian is very pathetic player and you never know what you'll get from him, can win but also can lose 2-6, 2-6. Good luck on this one anyway :hope

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Hi guys, 1 more pick for the WTA tournament today: BARCELONA: POUS TIO TO DEFEAT HERCOG @ 1.69 pinnaclesports Hercog is a good clay court player with great forehand and good variety to her game but she had a few injuries this year already and she is out-of-form. Pous Tio is a very consistent clay court player. She defeated Hercog just two weeks ago in Marbella 6-1,6-2.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Florian Mayer has to be the most frustrating player on tour. Absolutely no power on any of his shots. Even on a smash at the net, he opts for top spin. Think one of the seven dwarfs would put more power on a groundstroke than the German.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Going with same bets as last week laying dustin brown's and raonic's opponents. couldnt believe stan wawrinka was 1.09 against brown. know hes crazy unpredictable but he has chances against most players especially those with not much like variation and ideas. and raonic has been in pretty good form last few weeks/month so will stay with these. so lay stepanek at 1.24 and a lay on stepanek 2-0 at 1.8 and will back raonic 2-0 as odds on sousa lay are bit big. 2-0 is 1.5 good for me good luck

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Florian Mayer has to be the most frustrating player on tour. Absolutely no power on any of his shots. Even on a smash at the net' date=' he opts for top spin. Think one of the seven dwarfs would put more power on a groundstroke than the German.[/quote'] Gaba must be more frustrating. He missed 5 setpoints in second set.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Gaba must be more frustrating. He missed 5 setpoints in second set.

Yeah was talking about it from Mayer's perspective. At points he seemed to be treating the match like an exhibiton with his shot selection. Gaba has been so bad recently, Mayer should not have needed a tie break.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May I have my doubts about Raonic since he is not experienced on clay while his opponent is nothing but clay but he probably wins. This is the portuguese Sousa and not the better brazilian Joao Souza.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

WTA Estoril Kristina Barrois 2bt Alisa Kleybanova. 2.61 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Johanna Larsson 2bt Alla Kudryavtseva. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (6/10)

Good two calls from PSYCHO. I watched Kleybanova yesterday, so I had no mental problems to follow :-) Poor Kleybanova - she was 4-1 up in the 1st set against Barrois, then she lost 9 games in a row, and that was it.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Funny clown Gil :cry This again gives me the lesson not to blindly follow stupid bets against seeded players in their 1st tournament match. edit: no matter who wins this match (6-5 for Gil in the second), BOTH Gil AND Verdasco are clowns. Verdasco rolling, won 1st set 6-1 and leading 5-1 in the secoind, and then losing 5 games in a row. WTF is that, WTA or what?

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Think Dustin Brown has replaced Shahar Peer as the love of my life in the tennis world. Amazing. :beer

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

Two for me tomorrow. Also still waiting on Mayer with the handicap tomorrow to try and make it a full house for me today. Carlos Berlocq vs Gilles Simon- Simon -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10)- WIN Radek Stepanek vs Dustin Brown- Brown +3.5 handicap- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10)- WIN

Amazing stuff. Two wins, which couldn't have come through in more different circumstances. Simon only dropped 3 games in the match but Brown certainly made up for the lack of drama for the Frenchman. Was a break up in the first set, before getting broken and losing the tie break. He was then 5-2 down in the second set, which was when I stopped watching. Had a quick glance a few minutes later to check that Stepanek had done the easy thing against Brown and served out the match. Brown broke back and forced a second tie-break. Was hoping it would be the same outcome as the first set as the handicap would have been covered, but Brown took it. 3rd set, he only needs 3 games for the handicap. Stepanek gets the early break, leaving me fearing for the worst. 5-2, one game needed for the Jamaican German. Deuce- Advantage Stepanek. Was ready to cry, only for Brown to claw it back and get advantage. He then pulled out the big first serve, good return from Stepanek, Brown came to the net. Barely won a point all match at the net, but he plays an impressive volley! Stepanek then goes for the lob but Brown is equal to it and smashes the winner and brings in the handicap. Unbelievable Jeff as Chris Kamara would say. Most drama in the history of my bets. I'm off for a lie down. :cheers Dustin Brown.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May I've had a nice couple of days off the tennis betting, always good to get a wee refresher, although to be honest, nothing has stood out. Quarter-finals up tomorrow, and I fancy one bet so far. Marin Cilic v Nikolay Davydenko - Marin Cilic @ 4/5 with Stan James 3pts Two guys who have really flown off the radar recently. Davydenko just isn't as good as used to be, simple fact really, and I think it's fair to say that some of the odds movements on his matches have been worrying. This match against Cilic, a player who has always caused him problems (3-1 H2H in favour of the Croat), falls into that category. Odds have slipped into the 1.60s in some places but I've managed to find 4/5. I think this is a good bet on Cilic, who has seemed pretty secure on clay this year and serves better than Davydenko. The Russian is just too weak and vulnerable these days in that department, and with the odds sliding against him, I fancy the big Croat to do the business. He made the final last year, so it's certainly an event that gets the best tennis out of him. With the past results suggesting Cilic has an edge, I'm happy to take him here. :hope

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May 2/5 due to idiotic performances in Belgrade. First day of the week with minus. Winners:Barrois, Larsson Losers: (all from Belagrade) Garcia-Lopez, Zverev and Troicki. GGL totally fixed, listed straight away. Zverev was even worse and did not even fake trying to play as did the Spaniard, every shot wide/long for the Russian-German. Troicki should have retired as he was injured and would have never won anyway.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May ATP Estoril Juan Martin Del Potro -2.5 AH vs Robin Soderling. 1.80 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Del Potro owns Soderling big time lately. Soderling won their first match which was in Davis Cup in 2007. Potro was nobody back then. Since then the Argentine player has won three straight matches and only one of them was close which was in ATP World Tour finals in 2009. It was close because it was indoors which is Soderling's favorite surface. Outdoors he has been smashed 6-4, 6-3 and 6-3, 6-2, both times on hard but Del Potro has ability to play on clay as well. Soderling has been very poor lately, losing to Dodig in Barcelona and losing a set against Chardy. He was broken three times in that match. No form at all and I think Soderling will have him easily again, therefore having handicap with high confidence. ATP Belgrade Feliciano Lopez > Albert Montanes. 2.41 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Not the biggest fan of Lopez but feel this is the stage of the tournament when he can be trusted more than at the start of the week. Two straight sets wins against Monaco and Gonzalez. Had some problems in the 2nd set of both matches but came through. Montanes has been really poor lately and I've no idea why did not go to Estoril where he won last year. Mighty struggle against Berrer in previous round and we have to remember that Berrer can't play on clay. Montanes has not beaten higher ranked player on clay this season and with Lopez having beaten him 3 times out of 4 I can not see any reason why on current form Montanes should be rated as a favorite. Novak Djokovic vs Blaz Kavcic. Under 16.5 games. 1.90 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Djokovic played 17 games in his first match against the Romanian player Ungur. He was broken two times and generally speaking was outplayed at times. Ungur was playing attacking tennis and going for his shots. Kavcic is completely different type of player who's playing a lot of defense with little attacking play, tries to bore his opponents to death. Tactics like that would never ever work against Djokovic. I'm sure it will be a professional suicide for Kavcic. 4 games at most for him today.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May WTA Estoril Johanna Larsson > Kristina Barrois. 3.06 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Both did great job on Thursday but today I pick Larsson. Like the Swede more of the two because of better matching up against each other. Larsson definitely can outhit and out-power Barrois from the baseline and will know how to play against her as it can be tricky for most players. Larsson beat her as 18 year old in 2006 at home in Stockholm in three sets. She lost the first one 6-5, but came back to win the next two 7-5, 7-5. By the looks of it, could be another tight match but Larsson for me has got a bit more to offer. She has admitted during this tournament that she really enjoys playing on clay and that's very nice to hear. Odds obviously are overrated in this one and I'm backing underdog to make an upset.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Not taking anything tomorrow, and maybe not for a while. Got a ridiculous amount of work to do for uni, why did I pick English as my degree :\. GL to the rest though for their picks. :ok

[vlazar]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May Psycho, be careful with Feliciano... I'am from Belgrade, and I have watched many trainings and matches here... Montanes was good at doubles in first round, it was something like warming up before a serious match :lol but against sooo bad Berrer he was awful and in 'who the f*** care' mood... but whenever he was a little bit serious he made an eazy point.. Lopez is ok, he serves very well and that is everything from him... in ralies he is bad, makes a lot unforced erors, pretty stupid errors... so, if Feliciano doesn't have a good serve day, he will loose this... I'd rather take over 21

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May What do people think of Anderson to beat Verdasco. Anderson's playing well at the moment and Verdasco made a bit of a mess of his second set against Gil. Odds of over 2/1 look good but maybe too good.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 25 April - 1 May

What do people think of Anderson to beat Verdasco. Anderson's playing well at the moment and Verdasco made a bit of a mess of his second set against Gil. Odds of over 2/1 look good but maybe too good.

I think Anderson has a good chance. Problem is, Verdasco can turn it on and perform at a higher level than he's showed in recent months. We know it's there, we've seen him dismantle top players. I don't know if Anderson can play any better on clay than he is at the moment. You'd think he'd get plenty of cheapies on the serve, but Verdasco is a more competent returner than any of the guys he's faced recently on this surface. The handicap might be the best way forward in this one.