Germany - Bundesliga - 21-24 April

[ultravires]

	Thursday 21 April 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	SC Freiburg v Hannover 96 (19:30 BST)	2.74	3.6	2.8	99.99 %
	Saturday 23 April 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1899 Hoffenheim (14:30 BST)	1.59	4.48	6.5	100.60 %
	Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Bayern München (14:30 BST)	6.5	4.56	1.57	100.95 %
	FC Schalke 04 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (14:30 BST)	2.08	3.58	4	101.01 %
	FC St. Pauli v Werder Bremen (14:30 BST)	3.4	3.7	2.25	100.88 %
	VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV (14:30 BST)	2.12	3.67	3.76	101.01 %
	Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund (17:30 BST)	5.5	4.34	1.64	102.01 %
	Sunday 24 April 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Köln (14:30 BST)	1.67	4.18	5.45	102.11 %
	1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FSV Mainz 05 (16:30 BST)	2.25	3.51	3.63	100.48 %

[luegofuego]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 21-24 April Freiburg - Hannover Guests are missing Didier Ya Konan and Sergio Pinto. Harsh missings considering what they've both meant for the team. Freiburg is missing Bastians and Abdessadki, but will get to field their most important player Pappis Demba Cissé. Freiburg hasn't performed all that hot lately, while Hannover has of course been on fire. The books are offering even money on both sides of a level ball handicap , which implies that Hannover is 0.4 goals better before home advantage. This seems mildly absurd, given Ya Konans importance to them and their much worse form on the road. Freiburg isn't a bad team. Let's not forget that they were inches from holding Bayern München to a draw not too long ago, and is one of the few teams to beat Borussia Dortmund this season. With the home advantage applied, I firmly believe Freiburg should be considered clear favorites here, despite the edge in motivation the visitors should enjoy. Pick: Freiburg AH +0.0 @ 1.97 Leverkusen - Hoffenheim Leverkusen are very tough to call. They've looked incredibly pale for two rounds now. In the smashing that Bayern delivered them last round, it looked as if they weren't even trying. The round before that, they faced a St Pauli side with five injuries and two red card suspensions and only managed to squeeze out a very narrow victory. But they also look like a world class team at times with impenetrable defenses, great build-up play and excellent finishing capabilities of every single player in the team. Hoffenheim has, as I predicted, looked terrible ever "Gustavogate" in January, where they not only lost Demba Ba, but stupidly lost head coach Ralf Rangnicks services by going over his head and selling Luiz Gustavo to Bayern München. Neither Demba Ba, Luiz Gustavo, or the tactical aptitude of Rangnick has been properly replaced and results has suffered. Fading Hoffenheim has been a very profitable strategy in 2011 and I intend to keep doing so. Pick: Leverkusen -1.0 @ 1.95 Frankfurt - Bayern München Bayern seem to have picked up the steam they needed when Louis Van Gaal left the club. While Jonkers is probably not a tactician of the same measures, it's safe to say he won't have the same adverse effect on team morale that Van Gaal had. Frankfurt has completely lost it lately aswell, although they did look very impressive in their last game against Hoffenheim. Looking impressive isn't enough however when you simply can't find the net. I believe this will be a routine win for a newly fired-up Bayern München. The odds reflect that however. No pick. Schalke 04 - Kaiserslautern Home team available for 2.10 in some places, which is completely baffling considering one team is in the Champions League semi-final and the other is a newly promoted team experiencing a pretty mediocre season. There's some doubts if Rangnick will be resting players or not, but considering Farfan, Jurado, Raul, Edu and everyone else saw play last time there was a Champions League game nearby, I wouldn't think he will be. Kaiserslautern has impressed me lately, but 2.10 on Schalke is just an absurd line - which is why I'm not betting it. It screams trap, and there's a bet that's just as attractive available: Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 St Pauli - Werder Bremen Pauli should really be down for the count, but they've shown remarkable fighting spirit lately, despite their injury situation. This game was supposed to be played infront of empty bleachers but the decision was overturned and so St Pauli should be given full home advantage. Bremen is playing high class football and has been for a while - with the exception of the defense. It seems as if there's atleast one defensive blunder each game that leads to a goal. To make up for this, Bremen tries their best to score and have lately been awarded with a ton of draws "that should have been wins" for their troubles. This is a game where anything can happen, and so the handicap gets really hard to predict. I'd look for an attractive "both teams to score" line to take, but since I'm only picking AH and O/U:s, the over looks really good aswell. Pick: Over 3 goals @ 2.09 Stuttgart - Hamburg Stuttgart has seemingly began their annual Rückrunde winning streak with only a single loss in seven games while Hamburg has turned to complete feces under Michael Oenning, looking like the worse team in each of their three last game, which all ended in draws. Stuttgart should be considered rightful favorites, especially since their A LOT better at home than away, but I feel the odds of 2.05ish is a bit too short. The totals is a tricky market on this game aswell. No pick. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund Hosts desperately fighting for survival, guests have already secured the league title. Dortmund is filled with future stars but in my opinion, there's been four players that's really been insanely good this season: Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Shinji Kagawa and Nuri Sahin. Both Kagawa and Sahin will miss this game. It might seem like madness, but in my mind this is the perfect time for a Gladbach upset. The defensive leaks has been shored up and Marco Reus just keep looking better and better. They're not the horrifically under-performing team of the fall season anymore. Pick: Gladbach +0.75 @ 2.14 Wolfsburg - Köln Many people, myself included, thought Wolfsburg would shape up when Felix Magath took over from Littbarski. Thee draws, one loss and no wins later, it hasn't turned out that way. The visitors aren't on the most high-flying form themselves however, coming off a 1-3 loss to Stuttgart following a 1-5 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither team should feel safe from relegation so it's a very important game. Köln have been especially terrible on the road, which partly explains the incredibly long odds on Wolfsburg here, but not entirely. I can't with good conscience recommend taking Köln while on the road either though, and will pass on this selection altogether. No pick. Nürnberg - Mainz Nürnberg is on quite the tear lately with a 7-3-2 record after their 0:1 loss to Gladbach in January. Mainz form has on the other hand cooled off slightly even if they're coming off a 1:0 win vs Gladbach. The market odds insinuate that Mainz is slightly the better team at the moment which I can't agree with. There is slight, but clear, value in Nürnberg at the current price. Pick: Nürnberg 1X2 @ 2.25

[jovinco]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 21-24 April @luegoFuego You'll have to get permission for your link. Mail [email protected] so youcan get your link allowed.

[Mister P]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 21-24 April

Freiburg - Hannover Guests are missing Didier Ya Konan and Sergio Pinto. Harsh missings considering what they've both meant for the team. Freiburg is missing Bastians and Abdessadki, but will get to field their most important player Pappis Demba Cissé. Freiburg hasn't performed all that hot lately, while Hannover has of course been on fire. The books are offering even money on both sides of a level ball handicap , which implies that Hannover is 0.4 goals better before home advantage. This seems mildly absurd, given Ya Konans importance to them and their much worse form on the road. Freiburg isn't a bad team. Let's not forget that they were inches from holding Bayern München to a draw not too long ago, and is one of the few teams to beat Borussia Dortmund this season. With the home advantage applied, I firmly believe Freiburg should be considered clear favorites here, despite the edge in motivation the visitors should enjoy. Pick: Freiburg AH +0.0 @ 1.97 Leverkusen - Hoffenheim Leverkusen are very tough to call. They've looked incredibly pale for two rounds now. In the smashing that Bayern delivered them last round, it looked as if they weren't even trying. The round before that, they faced a St Pauli side with five injuries and two red card suspensions and only managed to squeeze out a very narrow victory. But they also look like a world class team at times with impenetrable defenses, great build-up play and excellent finishing capabilities of every single player in the team. Hoffenheim has, as I predicted, looked terrible ever "Gustavogate" in January, where they not only lost Demba Ba, but stupidly lost head coach Ralf Rangnicks services by going over his head and selling Luiz Gustavo to Bayern München. Neither Demba Ba, Luiz Gustavo, or the tactical aptitude of Rangnick has been properly replaced and results has suffered. Fading Hoffenheim has been a very profitable strategy in 2011 and I intend to keep doing so. Pick: Leverkusen -1.0 @ 1.95 Frankfurt - Bayern München Bayern seem to have picked up the steam they needed when Louis Van Gaal left the club. While Jonkers is probably not a tactician of the same measures, it's safe to say he won't have the same adverse effect on team morale that Van Gaal had. Frankfurt has completely lost it lately aswell, although they did look very impressive in their last game against Hoffenheim. Looking impressive isn't enough however when you simply can't find the net. I believe this will be a routine win for a newly fired-up Bayern München. The odds reflect that however. No pick. Schalke 04 - Kaiserslautern Home team available for 2.10 in some places, which is completely baffling considering one team is in the Champions League semi-final and the other is a newly promoted team experiencing a pretty mediocre season. There's some doubts if Rangnick will be resting players or not, but considering Farfan, Jurado, Raul, Edu and everyone else saw play last time there was a Champions League game nearby, I wouldn't think he will be. Kaiserslautern has impressed me lately, but 2.10 on Schalke is just an absurd line - which is why I'm not betting it. It screams trap, and there's a bet that's just as attractive available: Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 St Pauli - Werder Bremen Pauli should really be down for the count, but they've shown remarkable fighting spirit lately, despite their injury situation. This game was supposed to be played infront of empty bleachers but the decision was overturned and so St Pauli should be given full home advantage. Bremen is playing high class football and has been for a while - with the exception of the defense. It seems as if there's atleast one defensive blunder each game that leads to a goal. To make up for this, Bremen tries their best to score and have lately been awarded with a ton of draws "that should have been wins" for their troubles. This is a game where anything can happen, and so the handicap gets really hard to predict. I'd look for an attractive "both teams to score" line to take, but since I'm only picking AH and O/U:s, the over looks really good aswell. Pick: Over 3 goals @ 2.09 Stuttgart - Hamburg Stuttgart has seemingly began their annual Rückrunde winning streak with only a single loss in seven games while Hamburg has turned to complete feces under Michael Oenning, looking like the worse team in each of their three last game, which all ended in draws. Stuttgart should be considered rightful favorites, especially since their A LOT better at home than away, but I feel the odds of 2.05ish is a bit too short. The totals is a tricky market on this game aswell. No pick. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund Hosts desperately fighting for survival, guests have already secured the league title. Dortmund is filled with future stars but in my opinion, there's been four players that's really been insanely good this season: Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Shinji Kagawa and Nuri Sahin. Both Kagawa and Sahin will miss this game. It might seem like madness, but in my mind this is the perfect time for a Gladbach upset. The defensive leaks has been shored up and Marco Reus just keep looking better and better. They're not the horrifically under-performing team of the fall season anymore. Pick: Gladbach +0.75 @ 2.14 Wolfsburg - Köln Many people, myself included, thought Wolfsburg would shape up when Felix Magath took over from Littbarski. Thee draws, one loss and no wins later, it hasn't turned out that way. The visitors aren't on the most high-flying form themselves however, coming off a 1-3 loss to Stuttgart following a 1-5 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither team should feel safe from relegation so it's a very important game. Köln have been especially terrible on the road, which partly explains the incredibly long odds on Wolfsburg here, but not entirely. I can't with good conscience recommend taking Köln while on the road either though, and will pass on this selection altogether. No pick. Nürnberg - Mainz Nürnberg is on quite the tear lately with a 7-3-2 record after their 0:1 loss to Gladbach in January. Mainz form has on the other hand cooled off slightly even if they're coming off a 1:0 win vs Gladbach. The market odds insinuate that Mainz is slightly the better team at the moment which I can't agree with. There is slight, but clear, value in Nürnberg at the current price. Pick: Nürnberg 1X2 @ 2.25

:clap Good job. Agree with the thoughts on Bayern, but I wonder if -1 AH @ 1.85 may be the play, especially if they maintain the momentum of the Leverkusen win. One for me to look at.

[vinnyno10]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 21-24 April nice write up luegofuego.. :) agree on both leverkusen + b. munich predictions, surely both should win comfortably even though the odds aren't very generous double @ 2.25