fishy25 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Have to keep in mind that this is the first tournament since US Open for JCF. His match against nobody player Vagnozzi was a nightmare from the stats point of view. He was broken seven times and had 20(!) break points against him and was a break down in the final set as well. Almagro beat him easily in this tournament few years back (6-3' date=' 6-3 in 1/4finals 2006) and could destroy him again, bare in mind Ferrero might have fitness problems having been out for so long and playing such a long match on Thursday. But with Mugro you never know, he is totally brainless and can throw away a set and lose it in the breaker and then win easily the other two sets. The rain which is forecast for tomorrow however might save some time for JCF to get rested.[/quote'] Yeah that crossed my mind with Mugro as well, aways liable to offer gifts to his opponents. Despite the fitness with Ferrero, has the slight edge with the H2H, winning the 2 most recent clashes but of course that came before his long break away. Is the rain meant to be hard and continuous or just a brief stoppage do you know? If it's not too bad, Almagro handicap would interest me over the unders for the reasons mentioned. One I'm waiting to take early is Safina on handicap. Think Bet365 will open up with a (4.5) handicap, and after watching her demolish Cornet today, struggle to see how Pivovarova will cope with the Russian. Love how whenever Safina wins a point these days, she says 'vamos' :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Alright, I will join the debate. Personally, I don't think that Goerges will win tomorrow. If I remember correctly, Stosur was in dreadful form at the end of the year (Tokio). The German is too inconsistent in my opinion. She can beat her on a good day, but her struggles against the likes of Birnerova and Pervak would put me off that bet. Definitely fancy Stosur to take that one, but I am not sure I will have a bet on it. As for JCF and Almagro, that can be a horror from the betting point of view. Edit: Oh wow, Pinnacle set the handicap at -4. Not sure I like that at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Yeah Bet365 and Pinnacle have gone for the complete opposite prices for the (4.5) handicap. Ferrer is at 2s with Bet365, whilst Pinnacle have him at 1.7. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April I would not be comfortable with a -4.5 handicap on Almagro (or 5 for that matter). He is way too inconsistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Yeah Bet365 and Pinnacle have gone for the complete opposite prices for the (4.5) handicap. Ferrer is at 2s with Bet365' date=' whilst Pinnacle have him at 1.7. Interesting.[/quote'] Haha complete reversal in the last few mins. Priced same as pinnacle now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April ATP Barcelona (2/4) Rafael Nadal -6.5 AH vs Gael Monfils. 1.91 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Had to chose between unders and handicap and came up with the latter. I believe that one of the two sets will be 6-2 or 6-1, so it would not be that hard for Rafa to win the other one by 3 games. Monfils is a clown and his tennis does not work against Rafa, not on clay anyway. They have played 3 times on this surface, Nadal never lost more than 3 games in a set and and that was the case in two of the six sets they played. Monfils won't be able to get enough aces in to feel comfortable in his service games but baseline rallies should be dominated by the Spaniard. Even if Nadal makes some silly errors he should be good to win by 7 or more games. Jurgen Melzer vs David Ferrer. Under 21.5 games. 1.80 @ Bet365 (5/10) These two played last week in Monte Carlo, Ferrer won 6-3, 6-2 and looks good for another rout. Melzer perhaps should have lost to Montanes yesterday but managed to escape a defeat which was waiting to happen. As for this match, I think Ferrer will have again but it might be the other way round, you just never know. If Melzer is on song, he could be able to crush David like he did in Paris last year, so instead of handicap on Ferrer I'll have unders which would work even if there's an upset and Melzer gets a W. :hope P.S. Most likely will have handicap on Wozniacki as well, if it'll be acceptable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Yeah that crossed my mind with Mugro as well' date=' aways liable to offer gifts to his opponents. Despite the fitness with Ferrero, has the slight edge with the H2H, winning the 2 most recent clashes but of course that came before his long break away. Is the rain meant to be hard and continuous or just a brief stoppage do you know? If it's not too bad, Almagro handicap would interest me over the unders for the reasons mentioned. [b']One I'm waiting to take early is Safina on handicap. Think Bet365 will open up with a (4.5) handicap, and after watching her demolish Cornet today, struggle to see how Pivovarova will cope with the Russian. Love how whenever Safina wins a point these days, she says 'vamos' :lol Safina 2-0 for me ATP Barcelona (2/4) Rafael Nadal -6.5 AH vs Gael Monfils. 1.91 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Had to chose between unders and handicap and came up with the latter. I believe that one of the two sets will be 6-2 or 6-1, so it would not be that hard for Rafa to win the other one by 3 games. Monfils is a clown and his tennis does not work against Rafa, not on clay anyway. They have played 3 times on this surface, Nadal never lost more than 3 games in a set and and that was the case in two of the six sets they played. Monfils won't be able to get enough aces in to feel comfortable in his service games but baseline rallies should be dominated by the Spaniard. Even if Nadal makes some silly errors he should be good to win by 7 or more games. :hope P.S. Most likely will have handicap on Wozniacki as well, if it'll be acceptable. -6.5 on Nadal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzyme Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April No matches in Stuttgart today semis tomorrow. Think Wozniacki is going to win it, Petkovic started out really well and aggressive yesterday and was two breaks up on Woniacki and had the chance to seize the first set but didn't take it. Wozniacki's was impressive slowly clawing her way back into the match before steamrolling her way to victory. Mentally she's stronger than the rest of the field left in Stuttgart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Certainly keen for more discussion on the matches. Just the solitary bet for me today. Rafael Nadal v Gael Monfils Under 17.5 games @ 2.05 with Pinnacle 4pts I think it's very hard to envisage anything but a Nadal cakewalk here. Monfils isn't a player who causes him a great deal of trouble on court. He leads the H2H 7-1 and has produced a couple of hammerings on clay. I saw Nadal's post-match interview after he beat Santi Giraldo and he spoke about Monfils' potential danger. That tells me he'll be taking this very seriously and will take no prisoners. Monfils hasn't really impressed and in recent times has gone completely missing against the big boys. I don't think he's fully up to speed yet and against Nadal on clay, you need to be at your best. The -6.5 handicap also looks good but I'll be greedy and take the bigger price on the unders. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Re the discussion on Nicolas Almagro earlier. My original thought was to beat the living daylights out of any handicap up to -5 games. Juan Carlos Ferrero really struggled yesterday against Simone Vagnozzi. I suspect he'll be tired considering his lack of match practice. Thing about Almagro is that he can go missing for a long period of time. He's made the top 10 now, he may play a bit more relaxed, but he's not been outstanding on the European clay this year and has lost his last two matches with Ferrero. JCF may not be fully up to speed yet but I can see him frustrating Almagro if given the chance. Too many ifs and buts for a high handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April So frustrated today. Wasn't able to take the handicap on Safina which would have started at 4.5 last night as it wasn't available until after I went to bed. Handicap is almost at 6.5 now. The 4.5 would have been a gift. May try and have a bet in play in that one if I can. Leaving everything else alone today I think so it may turn out that I won't play on anything today unless Safina goes down an early break or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Rafa easy! :ok Almost killed Monfils in the penultimate rally of the match :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Under 17.5 games @ 2.05 with Pinnacle 4pts WIN Never really in any doubt. Handicap comes in for Psycho too, got to love a bit of market domination :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Good shouts on Nadal guys, good value too the king of clay over the clown of earth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armour Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April just finished watching nadal-monfils match... another time i got impressed... nadal deserves world #1. he didn't give any chance to molfils to break him. i followed your advice punters, and won... he faces the winner of the match f. lopez - i. dodig. i reckon he will have no problem. i didn't see the dodig's performance on clay, but i wasn't impressed much by f. lopez's play... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April just finished watching nadal-monfils match... another time i got impressed... nadal deserves world #1. he didn't give any chance to molfils to break him. i followed your advice punters' date=' and won... he faces the winner of the match f. lopez - i. dodig. i reckon he will have no problem. i didn't see the dodig's performance on clay, but i wasn't impressed much by f. lopez's play...[/quote'] He's actually had a few problems with Lopez in the past. Can't see him not winning but for some reason, Lopez's game gets under his skin. Could be the awkward lefty serve. Dodig is having a stormer, but if he beats Lopez, he'll be knackered. I reckon he'll probably lose today purely down to fatigue. His game is all about power and if he's not 100% fit ... well, Nadal will eat him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Just looking on the fat Dinara vs Pivovarova match, and I consult match stats at the scoreboard, and something is wrong - it says (at 6-4 1-1) 0 DFs for Safina, while I personally saw at least one in the TV, and it also states 77% 1st serve for Dinara, which is obviously nonsense :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinisko Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April What do you guys think about Lopez - Dodig game? Lopez should cover 1.5 handicap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Just looking on the fat Dinara vs Pivovarova match' date=' and I consult match stats at the scoreboard, and something is wrong - it says (at 6-4 1-1) 0 DFs for Safina, while I personally saw at least one in the TV, and it also states 77% 1st serve for Dinara, which is obviously nonsense :-)[/quote'] Can't remember her serving a DF myself. And the percentage is probably correct as she can't serve properly due to her back I think it is. So she's essentially serving her first serve like it's a second serve hence why she's been broken so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Just looking on the fat Dinara vs Pivovarova match' date=' and I consult match stats at the scoreboard, and something is wrong - it says (at 6-4 1-1) 0 DFs for Safina, while I personally saw at least one in the TV, and it also states 77% 1st serve for Dinara, which is obviously nonsense :-)[/quote'] Actually she's getting in a lot of first serves coz there's absolutely nothing on it. She looks like she's gonna collapse any moment soon. Must be sick or her back is dead again. Can't see her continuing this one if she loses the 2nd set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Actually she's getting in a lot of first serves coz there's absolutely nothing on it. She looks like she's gonna collapse any moment soon. Must be sick or her back is dead again. Can't see her continuing this one if she loses the 2nd set. You with me in opposing whichever player gets through? ;). Oppose Safina at a one-ball bookie and just oppose Pivovarova anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April You with me in opposing whichever player gets through? ;). Oppose Safina at a one-ball bookie and just oppose Pivovarova anyway? Don't think she will be able to survive this one. As for Pivovarova, it depends who she plays. Brianti is brainless and might lose to her, but Oudin is a smarter player and despite not being known for her clay court tennis, should be able to make the most of the opportunity. Oudin actually beat her 6-4, 6-0 in Memphis earlier this year and I can understand how result like that could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April What do you guys think about Lopez - Dodig game? Lopez should cover 1.5 handicap? He should, but Lopez is unpredictable and unreliable. Clay is not his best surface, he's more effective on grass or hard where he can maximise his big serve. If he serves well he should take it, but if he doesn't, he'll be in trouble. His game from the baseline is average at best. What could be in his favour is Dodig's late finish last night. He'll be tired, mentally and physically, and he has a losing record against lefties. No doubt the Croat is playing well but there were signs that he was tiring against Milos Raonic. I would give it a miss, simply because Lopez is not a man I implicitly trust at this stage of a tournament, although chances are he'll probably come through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Don't think she will be able to survive this one. As for Pivovarova' date=' it depends who she plays. Brianti is brainless and might lose to her, but Oudin is a smarter player and despite not being known for her clay court tennis, should be able to make the most of the opportunity. Oudin actually beat her 6-4, 6-0 in Memphis earlier this year and I can understand how result like that could happen.[/quote'] If Melanie gets through today she'll be high on confidence and agreed she should take care of the Russian. I actually hope Safina gets through, would be interesting to see what odds she gets in her next match. Bear in mind she has doubles to play as well lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April It's ridiculous from Safina. Pivovarova was waiting for her compatriot to retire at the changeover but it did not happen. And she is still going on to continue after losing the 2nd set. I can not believe that. So idiotic, really... :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April It's ridiculous from Safina. Pivovarova was waiting for her compatriot to retire at the changeover but it did not happen. And she is still going on to continue after losing the 2nd set. I can not believe that. So idiotic' date=' really... :rollin[/quote'] So outrageous.. I've got 2-0 Safina @ centrebet and my bet will be void if she retires but Safina will continue. I can't belive it. Edit: It's a joke now.. Total joke. Safina can't move and should not even finish the third set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April How can she not retire?? Quite horrible and painful to watch really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aarun Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Safina needs to retire. :@:@:wall:wall She's going to lose me big money, it's obvious she ain't going to win the match. Even if she breaks Pivovarova. What is she doing!?!?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April She breaks :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Tennis - 18-24 April When is Safina's baby due? I saw her a few weeks ago and I didnt think she was this big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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